It continues to be “all about Oil”

Tunisians riot and the President flees, Lebanon’s government collapse leaving, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard supported, Hezbollah in charge.

Taiwan sets off a “test” missile while China’s President Hu is meeting Obama in Washington.

Earlier this month, North & South Korea raised hostilities.

In the last 3 days, Egyptians are protesting against the 30 year commercially corrupt and socially repressive rule of Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian stockmarket fell 10% last night. It declined 6% the previous day.

Do markets over-react? Aren’t markets supposed to be efficient?

In fact, I’m confused. Egypt’s stock market should probably rise if “democracy” is about to erupt. This is going to be really interesting.

American is a global “backer” of democracy yet Egypt (with a authoritarian regime) is an important Middle Eastern ally for America and is it’s 4th largest recipient of foreign aid, following Afghanistan, Pakistan and Isreal. Seeing the current Egyptian government collapse would not be in America’s interest, ironically even if it meant “democracy”, but Twitter and Facebook could have a larger influence if the government falls or not.

The reason that America needs the 82 year old Mubarak to hold power is because the protest leading group of the Muslim Brotherhood are close buddies with Iran. Hmm, Lebanon under pseudo-Iranian control to the north and Egypt potentially to follow, with Israel sandwiched in between….

Maybe the movements in the Egyptian stock market is justified, but oil has also fallen from $89 to $85 in the past 5 days??

Any coincidence that rioting occurred last night in the city of Suez! Egypt fully controls the Suez Canal.

Ahaaaa !  that’s why America can’t afford to have Mubarak to lose control. They give him $1.4 billion of aid per year (mainly for military purposes), the most populous Arab nation continues to be an American ally, the Suez Canal runs smoothly and thus the oil price remains tempered.

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