I’m not buying Oil on the sound of cannons

June 13, 2025 Leave a comment

Why y’all chasing the oil price now?…….It’s too late.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude touched below $55 and $58 respectively, on 2 occasions in April and May 2025.

Today, somebody (hedge funds, oil traders, corporate treasury, speculators) paid $78. The odds (and probability) of being long oil have changed.

Today’s price action is clogged up in Israel’s attack on Iran.

The time for preparedness of entering the long oil trade was around these dates when I wrote about it;

April 4, 2024

“I need to respect the rising probability of $55 on WTI Crude.”

Oil is moving into new territory

April 15, 2025

“It could coincide with #Brent Crude trading down to $58.”

Still waiting for lower oil prices and their proxies

May 8, 2025

“The prices of the 3 stocks mentioned (BP, Woodside and Occidental) recently all touched the prices mentioned in that September 4, 2024 note.”

Oil stocks have fallen, now what?

Let’s wait until next time, for a new moment to buy Oil.

Send me an email if you’re interested in hiring my services.

June 13, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Still waiting for lower oil prices and their proxies

April 15, 2025 Leave a comment

One year ago today, I disagreed when the former CEO of #Shell suggested the #SHEL stock price was undervalued.

Shell – wrong call at wrong time

My timing seems to be off by 6 months, but I still think that the price of Shell will trade down to GBP 21.70 area ‘soon’.

It could coincide with #Brent Crude trading down to $58.

April 15, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Crude Oil still consolidating

February 27, 2025 Leave a comment

WTI Crude Oil is in a 6 week losing streak and it’s just commencing a medium term down trend.

It needs to hold $64.75, otherwise I’ll look for a visit to $62.

February 27, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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What if Oil prices halved?

June 4, 2024 Leave a comment

WTI Crude Oil ain’t $80 anymore. It’s now $73.

In my note from mid-May, I opine that oil prices see $64 and perhaps $46.

Trendless Oil, looking for much lower prices

June 4, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Trendless Oil, looking for much lower prices

May 14, 2024 Leave a comment

I haven’t seen any compelling investment opportunity in Crude Oil (or any related equites) over the past 2 years.

I’ve been comfortable with that view as the price of #Oil has mostly traded sideways over that time.

Digestion has been the prevailing trend amongst oil and gas equities.

I’d like to see WTI #CrudeOil trade down to the $64 range before being interested.

At $46, it would become compelling.

This would translate to the share price in Australian energy company, Woodside Energy trading down to $19.65. (it’s currently $28.20)

……and then I ponder the related correlations in currencies etc.

May 14, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Crude Oil drop is washing out the ‘longs’

December 7, 2023 Leave a comment

WTI Crude Oil saw the $70 target within 3 days.

This post link alluded to seeing it within “next 10 days”.

The price is now $69.20, at the time of writing.

Now, I’m thinking the next move for WTI Crude Oil is towards $67.80 – $65.90 area, which may be seen quickly, perhaps the end of Monday’s U.S. trading session.

My buying interest is heightened.

Interestingly, WTI Crude Oil prices are in their 7th consecutive week of declines and now I don’t see any geopolitical risk premium.

December 7, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Knowing when you’re pushing oil barrels uphill

October 6, 2023 Leave a comment

The study below shows the percentage that the WTI Crude Oil price was trading above its 200 week moving average.

When combined with my other studies and metrics, (albeit I couldn’t predict this week’s 10% decline) the probability of the oil price embarking on an extended advance was waning.

More so (subjectively observed), when the financial media noise increased surrounding the various analysts saying $100 was inevitable.

This coincides with my note written 2 weeks earlier.

Selected Oil stocks are full

The high was $95, it is now $82, may see you at $73.10.

Better yet, we may see much cheaper shares in energy companies.

October 6, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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AUD/JPY lows help with Oil entry prices

December 21, 2022 Leave a comment

The study below shows WTI Crude Oil making a notable low approximately 6 weeks after the AUD/JPY first enters weekly oversold territory. 

Correlating the technicals in other assets helps me determine what I think may be a safer entry point, rather than relying solely on Oil price data.

Another example of this appeared in a recent post which monitors the Gold/Oil Ratio.

Oil – Buy signal approaching

For now, I’d like to see WTI Crude trade down to the $65 mark.

December 21, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Oil – Buy signal approaching

December 15, 2022 Leave a comment

Under the guise of getting the bigger calls right and continuing from the previous post…….

Go long S&P 500 when Gold/Oil is overbought

and for something acutely related to the Gold/Oil ratio…..

when we find the Gold/Oil ratio at overbought levels on a weekly basis, this suggests that the price of WTI Crude Oil is in buying territory.

We are potentially approaching the 14th time (over the past 30 years) that this buying signal will occur.

Keep in mind, I’m talking about the price of Oil.

Logically, oil related equities should also prosper and have the ability to deliver operational leverage, however you’d need to do the research on any specific companies numbers such as their debt, interest expenses, free cash flows, contracted or forward delivery prices etc etc.

December 15, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Following a $10 bounce, Oil is now a marginal trade

October 6, 2022 Leave a comment

Further to today’s note about Oil, OPEC and Oversold break-even inflation rates…….

This note told you,

AUD/USD, Gold, Oil and SPX hit targets

…..when Oil hit my long-standing lower target of $77.50 (trading to $76.25 intra-day).

That was 7 trading sessions ago and it coincided within the Oversold weekly reading for the 5 year break-even inflation rate.

Oil has bounced $10 since then.

Today, Oil has a short term upward trend developing,

but its only a trend.

At $87, it’s in no-mans land.

It could go $13 up or $13 down.

With new money, it’s a marginal trade or position to take.

Following a couple weeks of trade, I’m betting that WTI Crude sees $74 before it sees $100.

October 6, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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