Trying to hear what's not being said
November 5, 2024 Leave a comment
This study overlays Bitcoin volatility against the S&P 500 Index.
It is saying to me that when Bitcoin volatility is overbought, buy equities
And when #Bitcoin #Volatility (BVOL) is registering an RSI reading below 38, then it seems that equities are stifled, perhaps signalling a peak.
BVOL traded below 38 last week.
November 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 20, 2024 Leave a comment
The S&P 500’s climb up the wall of worry is over.
My story link mentions the advance ends when the VIX registers a weekly reading of 64 or greater.
It did that last week.
The study below circles the S&P 500 when that weekly VIX vol64 occurs. It then trades sideways to lower, for many following months.
Not to worry, the ‘market’ will change its shape and weight will be re-distributed.
August 20, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 12, 2024 Leave a comment
To support a case for a tactical bounce in the equity markets,
I have used red to highlight the data when the AAII investor sentiment survey has had the narrowest spread between bullish and bearish respondents,
And I have circled those corresponding moment in the accompanying S&P 500 chart.
So that all looks lovely when many of the bulls disappear.
Although, ‘bounces’, by nature are short-term.
For the strategic equity allocators, this note supported the ‘grind’ higher for the S&P 500
But that was back then and we are now deeper into this grind.
My final line in that note said, “It’s not the safest of markets”.
August 12, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 7, 2023 Leave a comment
The VIX is now trading at 14. Whilst this is towards the lower end of its 30 history, it has spent plenty of time around this price.
I find the current RSI reading of 37.50 much more interesting, as shown in the lower chart.
37.50 seems to be around where it extends itself while the circles denote 2 occasions where it traded to 33 in May 2003 and 34.8 in July 2009.
Note that the VIX has never been oversold on a weekly basis
Hmmmm…..
June 7, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 1, 2022 Leave a comment
Ahhhh, the beauty, cruelty, anguish and wickedness of the stockmarket.
Don’t ya just love it?
I was comfortable acquiring Netflix stock a couple days ago.
And then, Netflix stock rose 11% in today’s trading and its up 20% from its intra-day low only 4 days ago.
Just think about that. Cash earns you 1% for the year.
Netflix is up 11% in a day.
And so the conundrum’s continue.
Tomorrow we’ll see those who are buying, because they are missing out.
Others may see it as a second chance to sell, if they got spooked by January’s decline.
Or what about the buyers in the last 2 days who are salivating over (or nervous about) a 11%-15% return, in such quick time. Keeping in mind, there tax to pay.
And then those who bought at today’s high of $427 prices will watch the stock fall 9% as it ‘backs and fills the ‘gap’ in the stock chart to $387.
Stocks often move to where they can do the most damage and much of it is psychological.
February 1, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 9, 2020 Leave a comment
I am studying Bitcoin volatility and have found that the its 30 day historical volatility has fallen to its lowest level in my 10 years of data.
6 out of 7 times when its fallen to similar levels Bitcoin has rallied notably.
Last night, Bitcoin rose 3% or $300. It is currently trading at $10,878.
And Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 is ‘growing’.
The weekly chart below paints a clearer picture.
October 9, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
“>http://<div style=”clear:both”><a href=”https://www.visualcapitalist.com/5-lessons-about-volatility-to-learn-from-the-history-of-markets/”><img src=”https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/volatility-history-infographic.jpg” border=”0″ />
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