Tesla, ETF’s and Distortion

I can’t help think the return of the stock picker is nigh.

Here are some samples of concern with being invested in passively managed market capitalisation based Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s)

Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500 Index will force index funds to buy about $73 billion worth of its shares, S&P Dow Jones Indices said.

‘Your’ S&P 500 ETF will be “forced” to acquire Tesla shares and I think many ‘active’ managers may do the same, simply to prevent underperforming against the index.

This means that investors in a S&P 500 ETF will become owners of Tesla shares on December 21, 2020 when the company has a whopping market capitalisation of ~$554 billion.

Furthermore, the market cap of whichever company leaves the S&P 500 (to make room for Tesla) will hardly be comparable.

For example, lowly weighted HollyFrontier and Xerox have market caps of $4 billion.

Adding to the peril, is that the six FAANGM stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google & Microsoft) already account for 27% of the index’s composition;

while the top 10% weighted stocks in the S&P 500 provide 54% of the index’s concentration and risk;

and lastly, ‘indexing’ now accounts for or controls 45% of the whole market.

Distortion is everywhere.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-tesla/update-1-tesla-to-join-sp-500-in-single-tranche-idUSL4N2IG4SA

December 2, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Bitcoin – Not A Passing Fad

I love how crypto coins are making governments nervous.

Personally I’m not a user of it, but I can understand its allure to the nonconformists, to those who like to be considered as “early adopters” and those who just don’t want to be traced.

Bitcoin proponents are looking for ways to have their virtual currency legitimised (in terms of acceptance) but at the same time, government will want to regulate it based around protecting the consumer but the real reason will be so that they can tax it.

Ya Gotta Know How To Tax ‘Em

Government knows how to tax petrol (gasoline), cigarettes, ownership of land, income, sales of goods and capital gains realised on the sale of assets.

This is why I think Electric Vehicles (EV’s) don’t stand a chance of real success. Government support of EV’s is a mere sideshow to appease the “Green Lobby” and until government learns how to tax the electricity trickle from the powerpoint in your garage, then EV’s won’t become too popular. Interestingly,  New Jersey, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, and Virginia have all prohibited Tesla from selling cars in their states, mainly because that their direct internet selling model pisses off the incumbent dealership model ( see an older post from 2013, http://wp.me/p1d84Y-mr ) but it probably didn’t help when a couple Tesla’s were bought using Bitcoin.

Battle Is Just Beginning

U.S. tax authorities have classified Bitcoin as property, which the “crypto industry” doesn’t like.

The Aust. Taxation Office is now trying to figure out taxation guidelines surrounding Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.

An Aussie tax partner has said that under Aust. GST laws, Bitcoin wouldn’t be classified as money as it is not backed by a government. That must be annoying for the government.

Nervousness exists because Bitcoin and other crypto currencies have become a money supply which is not controlled by the state in its currently acceptable fiat format.

It cuts out the middle man!