Silver’s recent peak was 2 months ago

December 13, 2024 Leave a comment

It’s a bunch of hoo-ha and noise at the extremes.

In my October 27, 2024 edition of Macro Extremes, I cited that the price of Silver (in USD and AUD) was registering overbought extremes.

Macro Extremes (week ending October 25, 2024)

Almost 2 months later, neither are trading above those respective highs of A$52.19 and US$34.87.

It’s not about shorting but rather about being careful buying when the ‘noise’ is the loudest.

December 13, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Gold bugs are quiet lately

November 13, 2024 Leave a comment

It is often noisiest at the extremes.

This Gold Miners ETF has fallen 15% over the past 4 weeks.

Surely, Gold’s sheer weight aids to the gravitational pull?

November 13, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Giddiness in Gold

October 23, 2024 Leave a comment

This is when gold producers should be locking in their selling prices.

Perhaps to offer their equity as currency to acquire non-profitable mines.

Some companies may even ‘trick’ investors (and reward bankers) by raising capital at this moment.

Gold prices are resembling parabolas,

and the study below can’t convince me towards the probabilities of buying Gold ‘with new money’ today or tomorrow.

While animal spirits are absent and prices can become giddy, mean reversion should be respected.

But not all the equity prices of gold producers are hitting all-time highs.

Why?

Because profitable mining projects remain difficult.

p.s. for some perspective, Gold (as priced in USD) has risen 14% over the past 3 months (I just chose an arbitrary starting point)……many things have had similar returns including the S&P 500 and the price of Lean Hogs.

October 23, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

Screenshot

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Calling USD Gold price 20% lower

July 30, 2024 Leave a comment

One of my outlier calls is that Gold (as priced in USD) trades down to the US$1,940 region (+/- $30).

It’s currently trading at US$2,390.

It falls under the category of markets going to where they can do the most damage.

p.s. my Oil call for mid $40’s is another.

July 30, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

The economics of the combustion engine prevail

May 25, 2024 Leave a comment

My note dated, November 17, 2020 was titled; “A bet that the Internal Combustion Engine still has 30 years of life“

Investment Thesis: Long Platinum

An extract from my late 2020 note included,

“It’s unlikely that automobile manufacturers will walk away from the capital expenditure spent on engine development and assembly, while synthetic fuels are making ICE’s even more cleaner.

Commensurate to introducing electric vehicles into their stable, auto companies have also made statements that they still expect the ICE to be part of their business for the next 30 years.

The note also observed Palladium’s premium above the price of Platinum (implying that the gap is narrowed as Palladium declines and Platinum rises) along with my expectation of mean reversion/convergence in the Gold price.

Gold did mean revert, Platinum rose and Palladium’s premium collapsed.

Since that note was published, both Platinum and Gold have risen 11%.

And Palladium is now cheaper than Platinum.

Now, Mercedes Benz has said it will continue to make combustion-engine and hybrid vehicles “well into the 2030s,” if demand is there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/mercedes-retreats-to-gas-guzzlers-as-evs-fail-to-boost-profit?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

The article continued to say, “And with China not phasing out sales of new combustion-engines until 2060,”

May 25, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , ,