Anatomy of a Nickel trade

June 25, 2024 Leave a comment

In mid-November 2023, this note implied ‘it’s not too late to buy Nickel’ when it was trading at $16,781.

Nickel…..too early?

On April 20, 2024, when Nickel was trading at $19,224, I wrote a note about preparing to ‘sell Nickel’ suggesting that it’ll reach somewhere around $22,075.

Preparing to sell Nickel

In mid-May, 5 months and 30% later, Nickel traded within 2.5% of that figure (at $21,500)……close enough.

It was true that Nickel’s upward trend was not exhibiting any strength.

Today, one month since that peak, the price of Nickel has declined 20% and is now trading at $17,140.

It is not giving me a buy signal yet.

June 25, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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The trap in Copper

March 19, 2024 Leave a comment

The run in Copper has been seen and it may be full, for the time being.

On July 18, 2022 (20 months ago), I signalled a long trade in Copper expressed through the shares of #Sandfire Resources (SFR.ASX).

Preview to the Long Copper trade

Since then, #SFR‘s stock price has risen from $3.75 to its current level of $8.54.

The ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.

Today’s price suggests a stock price which is trading at the upper end of its extremes.

On a weekly basis, SFR.ASX is overbought, trading at 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean and it’s at a stretched percentage above its 200 week moving average.

The hubbub around the copper price (and related companies) paints a similar picture, while I specifically think there is a bull trap in #HG1!

In corporate finance land, this is a time when its advisable for copper related companies to conduct a capital raising (new share issuance) to either reduce debt or fund capital expenditures plans or perhaps use your (improved) currency, name your shares to make an acquisition.

March 19, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

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