Macro Extremes (week ending December 12, 2025)

December 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greece, Indian, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

AUD/CHF *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

THB/USD

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P MidCap 400

Copenhagen’s OMX

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Euro bond yield curve

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver in AUD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX

Brazil’s BOVESPA

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The S&P Biotech ETF *

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Silver in USD *

AUD/INR *

MYR/USD*

USD/INR *

U.S. KBW Bank Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

Lithium Hydroxide *

Dutch TTF Gas *

CHF/AUD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Urea (U.S. gulf)

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for short dated U.S. paper and the British yield curve.

Swiss 10’s soared.

A bunch of new bond yields appear in this weeks list.

The Australian, Euro and Japanese yield curves are overbought.

Kiwi 10 year yields have climbed for 8 weeks,

Whilst Japanese 10 year yield fell slightly, which ends its 7 week rising streak.

Turkish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks, as have U.S. 3 month bills.

And the U.S. 2 year bond is yielding less than the U.S. 3 month bill.

Equities had a slightly higher bias.

More indices joined the overbought extreme list.

While most indices closed either +/- 1% from last week but intra-week there were gyrations.

Brazil’s Bovespa returns overbought territory.

U.S. Regional Bank Index and the Nasdaq Transportation Index have risen for 4 weeks.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.

Chile’s IGPA is in a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Cocoa, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases and Distillates, Oats and Palm Oil dominated the losers category.

Natural Gas tanked 22% and erased half of the 39% gain seen in the previous 7 week winning streak.

The Baltic Dry Index also fell hard, wiping 19% of the 34% seen in the 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Rice is in a 4 week losing streak.

Wheat has slumped for 6 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio looks like it’s about to change direction in trend.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 5 week losing streak.

The Aussie fell except against the INR, JPY and USD.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie rose.

Euro as stronger, reversing last weeks weakness.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cocoa 10.2%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 3.4%, Lithium Carbonate 1.9%, Tin 3.4%, Orange Juice 12%, Palladium 2.7%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 2%, Uranium 2.6%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 6.1%, Gold rose between 1.5% – 2.4% across various currencies, All Word Developed ex USA 1%, KBW Banks 3.6%, DJ Transports 1.9%, BOVESPA 2.2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.2%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, KOSPI 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, PSE 1.5%, PX 1.7%, S&P 600 2%, TA35 3.6%, Nasdaq Transports 2.3%, WIG 3.5%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.8% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.7%), Brent Crude (4.1%), Baltic Dry Index (19.1%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Palm Oil (3.2%), Copper (1.9%), Heating Oil (7%), JKM LNG (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.8%), Newcastle Coal (2.4%), Natural Gas (22.2%), Nickel (2.5%), Gasoline (4.5%), Robusta (4%), S&P GSCI (3.4%), CRB Index (2.5%), Gasoil (6.9%), Oats (7.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), HSCEI (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.9%), SET (1.5%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (0.6%) and Vietnam fell 5.4%.

December 14, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

October 19, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Finnish10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index

CHF/AUD

COP/USD

GBP/JPY *

USD/CAD *

USD/KRW *

USD/SGD *

CAC Index

Vietnam’s VN equity index *

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle *

CHF/JPY *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

ASX Materials Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold Volatility Index *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

CHF/CAD

South Korea’s KOSPI *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, British, Greek and Dutch 10 year government bond yields

British 5 year bond yields

Cotton *

Nickel (Indian MCX)

Sugar (+2 month)

AUD/CHF

EUR/CHF

GBP/USD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

CAD/CHF

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield fell and snapped their 5 weeks rise.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is hovering above oversold territory.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate is also near being oversold.

European 10’s, U.S. 30’s and TBT & TBX have fallen for 4 weeks.

Austrian 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

And U.S. BB Corporate High Yield paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a mixed week, with gainers outpacing decliners.

We saw many equity indices leave overbought territory including those from China, France, Israel and Germany.

The S&P Biotech Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 6 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 8 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST have fallen 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 fell and broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance.

While the ASX Small Caps fell and snapped its winning streak at 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Aluminium, Coal, Coffee, Lumber and Precious Metals were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Sugar & Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Palladium and Platinum rejoined the overbought club.

Crude Oil has declined 5% over the past fortnight.

While the front month off Richards Bay Coal is oversold, the forward month contract rose 2.9%, which moved it out of oversold territory and snapping its 11 week losing streak.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 9 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell to its lowest reading since April 2020. Prior to that it was last seen at this level between Nov 2008 – Feb 2009 and matches the reading in February 1990.

Cocoa rose and broke its 8 week losing streak, which also moved it out of overbought territory.

Oats have lost ground for the past 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 7 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 8 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list.

The Aussie was subdued, with a bias for weakness.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie rose and appears in many extremes this week.

The Euro mostly fell.

The British Pound was firmer.

The DXY is back in overbought territory.

And the Thai Baht has fallen for 5 weeks versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.6%, Rotterdam Coal 3.7%, Copper 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, Lumber 3.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Palladium 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%m Gold in AUD 5.5%, Gold in CAD 5.9%, Gold in CHF 5.1%, Gold in EUR 5.6%, Gold in GBP 5.4%, Gold in USD 5.8%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Corn 2.3%, AEX 1.6%, CAC 3.2%, China A50 4.1%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 4%, IBB 2.8%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.9%, Russell 2000 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.9%, Mexico 1.9%, Nasdaq Biotechs 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 1.7%, SENSEX 1.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 600 3%, IGPA 4.9%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, S&P Biotech 2.7% & the ASX Materials index rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Brent Crude Oil (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (2.2%), Palm Oil (1.4%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (1.3%), Tin (3.5%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Orange Juice (10%), Sugar (3.7%), Gasoil (3%), Uranium (2.4%), Shanghai Composite (1.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), IDX (4.1%), DAX (1.7%), FCATC (6.9%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (4%), KRE Regional Banks (1.9%), OBX (1.7%), STI (2.2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2%.

October 19, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 23, 2025)

May 25, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

U.S. 30 year government bond yield

Norwegian 10 year government bond yield

TBT & TBX

Platinum 

MYR/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread 

Gold in AUD and USD

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

USD/SEK

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.

IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.

Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.

Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.

U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought

And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.

The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.

The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.

Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.

Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.

Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.

Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak. 

Currencies were little more active.

The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.

The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.

USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.

The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%

The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.

The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.

And the Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.

May 25, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

UK inflation now heading the other way

May 22, 2025 Leave a comment

I’m not surprised by yesterday’s report that British inflation rose.

It’s currently 3.5%.

13 months ago, I wrote about the extreme lows being seen then and that 5% was my prediction (and remains so) to where UK inflation would move to.

More on British inflation

And so I think UK inflation will rise further together with other correlated assets and securities.

May 22, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 2, 2025)

May 4, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SHY

MYR/USD

Mexico’s IPC equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

PHP/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

S&P GSCI (commodities) Index

USD/INR

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australian 2 year government bond yield *

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

USD/SEK *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None’

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose with her exception of Belgium, Brazil and the Japanese curve.

In fact, Brazilian 10’s are approaching overbought territory .

European (German) 10 year yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline. 

South Korean 10’s and Chilean 2’s ended their 4 weeks of lower travel.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 7 week declining streak.

Equities rose, everywhere, again.

The Netherland’s, Norway’s, Thailand’s, Canada’s, Poland’s main equity indices are in 4 week rising streaks.

As are the KBW Banks, the ASX’s Small Caps and Industrials along with some U.S. biotech indices.

Over the past 4 weeks, various indices have risen between 8%-13%.

Transportation indices and Thailand’s SET Index are no longer oversold.

Commodities were mostly lower.

The largest winners were Coals, Gases, Urea, Shipping Rates, Palladium and Uranium.

The notable losers included Oils & Distillates, Tin, Sugar Copper, Cocoa, Silver, Lumber and Coffee.

The big news is seeing Crude Oil prices return to oversold extremes.

Gold prices fell and those priced in USD, GBP and EUR left overbought territory.

Natural Gas broke its 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 5 straight weeks and has climbed to prices not seen since November 2022.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel & Rubber are no longer oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 100 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quiet, for a change of pace.

Continuing last weeks trend, many more currency pairs are not at extremes.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index rose and moved out from oversold territory.

The Aussie was stronger again and is in a 4 week rising streak against the Loonie, Euro and USD.

The Loonie was firmer.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Euro fell, 

And the JPY/AUD is in a 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 1.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 3.5%, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Natural Gas 16.6%, Palladium 1.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.8%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.3%, Uranium 4.4%, All Developed World – ex USA 2.9%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 4.3%, CAC 3.1%, DAX 3.8%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 4.3%, MIB 2.6%, HSCEI 1.9%, IDX 5.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAEIX 4.6%, Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, KLSE 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.6%, Nasdaq Biotechs 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 225 3.2%, Oslo 3.7%, Copenhagen 7%, Helsinki 3.9%, PSI 2.3%, Sensex 1.6%, SET 3.5%, SMI 2.6%, S&P 500 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.2%, ASX Financials 3.3%, ASX 200 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, ASX Industrials 2.6%, ASX SmallCaps 3%, IBB biotech ETF 2.7%, XBI biotech ETF 4.2% and the Philadelphia SOX Index rose 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.6%), Brent Crude Oil (6.9%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (7.5%), Lean Hogs (1.8%), Copper (4.4%), Heating Oil (5.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.5%), Lithium Carbonate (.2%), Tin (6.5%), Gasoline (4.1), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Sugar (5%), Sugar #16 (2.5%), SPGSCI (3.2%), CRB Index (2.7%), Gasoil (6.8%), Middle East Urea (1.9%), Silver in AUD (4%), Silver in USD (3.3%), Gold in AUD (3.1%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (2.5%), Gold in Euro (1.8%), Gold in GBP (2.1%), Gold in USD (2.4%), Gold in ZAR (3.9%), Corn (4%), Oats (5.7%), Rice (2.8%), Palm Oil (4.3%) and Turkiye’s BIST Index fell 2.8%.

May 4, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending February 7, 2025)

February 9, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Silver in AUD

USD/MXN

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazil 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Dutch TTF Gas

Gold in AUD

Hungary’s BUX Index *

DAX Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Chile’s IGPA Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Chile’s IGPA Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Arabica Coffee *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

Gold as priced in CAD, CHF, EUR & GBP

USD/INR *

Austria’s ATX *

Chile’s IPSA Index *

Spain’s IBEX Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

India’s 10 year government bond yields

Orange Juice 

Rice

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

CAD/JPY

Thailand’s SET Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

INR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

While this week’s list boasts the same overbought entries as last weeks edition, we are seeing more streaks develop.

Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 5 week rising streak.

As are the Japanese 2’s, 5’s and 10’s.

Belgian 10 year bond yields have climbed for 4 weeks. 

Aussie 10’s, Norwegian 10’s and the yields across the British curve are in 4 week losing streaks.

The spread of the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 10 year break-even rate has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

The U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate is nearing an overbought reading. The last time we saw that was March 2022.

And I wanted to make a note that only a few weeks ago, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread was overbought.

Equities mainly rose, while we saw weakness amongst small caps.

The CAC, the DAX and the Helsinki 25 are in 4 week winning streaks.

Poland’s WIG Index has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

Austria’s and Hungary’s main equity index have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Pakistan’s KSE, Switzerland’s SMI and the ASX Industrials Index fell from overbought territory.

The SMI broke its 6 week winning streak.

The SMI climbed 10% over that time.

Chile’s IPSA is in a 5 week rising streak and has risen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

Philippines PSE broke its 4 week losing streak by rising 5%.

Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite is nearing oversold levels.

And the DAX is at an all-time high.

Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.

Arabica Coffee has risen for 5 straight weeks.

Orange Juice tanks further and extends its losing streak to 7 week.

Palladium gave up all of last week’s 6% gain and then some.

The Baltic Dry Index jumped from being oversold. It rose 11%. Prior to this week, it had fallen 59% over the past 2 months.

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose enough to end its 36 week stay in oversold territory.

Copper, Coffee, Tin, Gases, Gold and Wheat gained.

Uranium, Oil, Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium and Cocoa fell.

Copper had a good week leading to a sharp rise in the Copper/Gold Ratio, arguably confirming a ‘risk-on’ environment.

Wheat is in a 5 week winning streak.

Corn has risen for 8 of the past 10 weeks.

Last week Cattle prices were overbought. They are no longer so.

Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 10 consecutive weeks.

Gold in USD has risen for 6 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 7 week winning streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 88 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active.

There is merit comparing the currency entries in last week’s edition and referencing those omitted in the edition.

The AUD mostly rose, reversing recent declines.

The AUD/JPY fell and is nearing oversold levels.

The Yen has been stronger against the USD for 4 weeks. This Yen strength is perhaps signalling an end to ‘risk-off’ sentiment?

The Brazilian Real has risen for 6 straight weeks versus the USD.

The Loonie rose from its recent doldrums and the CAD/USD isn’t oversold this week.

And the Euro was weaker, everywhere, again.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 10.9%, Lean Hogs 3.7%, Copper 7.2%, Heating Oil 1.4%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel 2%, JKM LNG 2%, Arabica Coffee 6.9%, Tin 4.6%, Natural Gas 8.7%, Nickel 3.4%, Gasoline 2.2%, Tin 3.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.9%, Gold in CHF 2.1%, Gold in EUR 2.5%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 2.2%, Wheat 4.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, CSI 300 2%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 5.4%, Hang Seng 4.5%, IBEX 2.6%, ASX Materials 1.7%, WIG 2%, TA35 2.4%, SA40 2.4%, PX 2.4%, PSE 5%, Mexico 3.1% and the KLSE rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Richard Bay Coal (4.2%), Rotterdam Coal (4.8%), Cocoa (8%), Cattle (2.7%), Lithium Carbonate (4.2%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (9.2%), Orange Juice (10.9%), Robusta Coffee (2,8%), Sugar #16 (3.4%), Brent Crude (2.4%), WTI Crude (2.1%), Uranium (2.5%), Indonesia (5.1%), S&P Small Cap Value (1.8%), SET (2.5%), Oslo (2%), KSE (3.4%) and the Nikkei 225 fell 2%.

February 9, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 31, 2025)

February 2, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Cattle *

Corn *

Gold in USD

Spain’s IBEX Index

Sweden’s OMX Stockholm Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index

Poland’s WIG Index

Australia’s ASX 200 Index

And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Arabica Coffee *

Robusta Coffee 

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

Gold as priced in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR.

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Chile’s IGPA Index *

And Australia’s ASX Industrials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Germany’s DAX Index *

Austria’s ATX *

Chile’s IPSA Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Lumber

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Baltic Dry Index

Newcastle Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

AUD/THB *

CAD/USD

INR/USD *

And Philippine’s PSE Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None 

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The only bond yields appearing in this week’s list is the overbought Japanese curve and the oversold Chinese 10’s.

Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 4 week rising streak,

As are the Japanese 2’s and 10’s.

Equities were mixed with an upward bias. 

The CAC, DAX and ASX 200 are in 4 week winning streaks.

The first 2 have risen 9% in those 4 weeks.

Austria’s, Hungary’s and Switzerland’s main equity index have risen for 6 weeks straight.

The SMI climbed 10% over that time.

Chile’s IPSA is also in a 4 week rising streak and has risen for 10 of the past 12 weeks.

The KOSPI broke its 5 week winning streak.

Philippines PSE has fallen for 4 weeks.

The PSE and the Philadelphia SOX Index tanked over 6%.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index broke its 8 consecutive weeks of advance.

Hong Kong and Chinese markets were closed for most of the week.

And the DAX is at an all-time high.

Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.

Arabica Coffee has risen for 4 straight weeks.

Palladium has climbed for 4 of the past 5 weeks.

Orange Juice is in a 6 week losing streak.

Coal, Gases, Wheat, Sugar and Precious Metals gained.

Oil, Cocoa, Aluminium, Oats, Rice and Henry Hub Natural Gas fell.

Corn has risen for 7 of the past 9 weeks and features prominently as an ‘overbought extreme’.

Cattle prices are at their highest since November 2014.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 59% over the past 2 months.

Coal prices remain in oversold territory.

Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 9 consecutive weeks, 

Gold in USD has risen for 5 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 6 week winning streak.

Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 17 weeks.

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke its 4 week losing streak but has spent 36 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 87 consecutive weeks.

Currencies saw some action.

The DXY (USD) Index rose 1%

The AUD fell.

The Brazilian Real has risen for 5 straight weeks versus the USD.

The Loonie is at its lowest since March ’20 and Jan ;16.

The Euro was weaker.

While the Yen rallied.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2.3%, Rotterdam Coal 2.5%, Leans Hog 2.3%, JKM LNG 2.3%, Coffee 8.7%, Lumber 4.7%, Palladium 6.2%, Platinum 7.4%, Robusta Coffee 3.1%, Sugar 1.7%, Sugar #16 4.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 2.8%, Gold in AUD 2.7%, Gold in CAD 2.3%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, Gold in ZAR 2.5%, Wheat 2.9%, AEX 2.3%, IBEX 3.2%, BOVESPA 3%, KRE Regional Banks 1.3%, FTSE 2.1%, NIFTY 2.1%, OBX 1.8%, SA40 2.4%, SENSEX 1.7%, SMI 2.5%, IGPA 2%, FTSE 100 2%, WIG 1.8%, ASX Financials 1.6% and the ASX 200 rose 1.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (2.6%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), Brent Crude Oil (2.5%), Cocoa (5.2%), WTI Crude Oil (2.9%), Cotton (2.6%), Heating Oil (2.1%), Natural Gas (17.2%), Nickel (3.1%), S&P GSCI (1.6%), CRB Index (1.6%), Gasoil (1.5%), Oats (3.5%), Rice (5.7%), DJ Transports (1.8%), Russell 2000 (1%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.1%), PSE (6.9%), SET (2.9%), SOX (6.1%), S&P 500 (1%) and the Tel Aviv 35 fell 2.7%.

February 2, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 17, 2025)

January 19, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Chilean and Japanese 2 year government bond yields

German and Japanese 5 year government bond yields

Austrian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

Cattle

Natural Gas *

Gasoil *

Gasoline 

S&P GSCI Index

CRB Index

Corn *

CAD/GBP

Italy’s MIB Index

Chile’s IGPA Index

And the U.K.’s FTSE 100

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

DXY Index *

Arabica Coffee *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, GBP and EUR

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index

Germany’s DAX Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Urea U.S. Gulf 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields * 

Rotterdam Coal

Raw Sugar

Egypt 30 Index

KLSE

FTSE 250

And Thailand’s SET Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal

Richards Bay Coal

Newcastle Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

RMB/USD *

DKK/USD *

INR/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None 

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The Euro 10 year yield has risen for 6 weeks straight as has the US10/2 yield spread.

Spanish, French, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks. 

The U.S. 5 year bond minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield spread fell from overbought territory.

And the noise surrounding the heights in the British 30 year bond yield, resulted in it declining for the week.

Equities had a terrific week.

All the notable gainers appear in the ‘advancers’ list below.

Only a few Asian indices saw weakness. 

Copenhagen’s OMX25 was the rare decliner in western markets due to Novo Nordisk accounting for 12% of the index weighting.

The past week saw an overbought extreme for Britain’s FTSE 100 juxtaposed against the FTSE 250 registering an oversold extreme.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 7 consecutive weeks and for 16 of the past 18 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 8 straight weeks and for 13 of the past 14.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index broke it for 6 consecutive weeks of decline.

The DAX is at an all-time high.

The BUX, SMI, AEX, FTSE 100, Nasdaq Transports, IBEX and Norways OBX have risen for 4 weeks in a row.

The Nikkei 225 has fallen for the past 3 weeks.

While Chinese and Hong Kong equities recovered last weeks declines.

Commodity prices were mostly higher.

The 3 major commodity indices are overbought.

Aluminium is at its highest weekly close since April 2024.

Gasoline has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Corn has risen for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

While Orange Juice is in a 4 week losing streak.

The few losers for the week included Platinum, Sugar, Lumber, Australian Coking Coal and the Baltic Dry Index.

Coal prices remain in oversold territory.

Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 7 consecutive weeks, while AUD Gold broke its 6 week winning streak.

Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 15 weeks.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 34 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 85 consecutive weeks.

Currencies continue to provide much action.

Compared to last week’s list, many currencies have departed the oversold region.

Although, notably, there are still a few which are oversold compared to the USD.

The DXY (USD) Index remains in overbought territory,

The AUD was stronger except vs the JPY and ZAR 

and the Aussie broke its 6 week losing streak again the USD.

The Euro was mixed 

And the Yen was firmer.

The weakness in the Loonie continued as it touched a 22 year low versus the USD.

Oddly, the Canadian Dollar registered an overbought extreme against the British Pound.

While the Swiss broke its 5 weeks losing streak against the USD, its lowest weekly close since March 2023.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2%, Aluminium 5.4%, Rotterdam Coal 3.3%, Cocoa 5.7%, WTI Crude Oil 2.9%, Heating Oil 3.5%, JKM LNG in ¥ 1.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.1%, Nickel 2.3%, Gasoline 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.2%, CRB Index 1.7%, Gasoil 3.1%, Corn 2.9%, Oats 10.4%, Rice 2.4%, Shanghai Composite 2.3%, CSI 300 2.1%, All Developed World ex uSA 1.8%, AEX 2.7%, ATX 3.5%, KBW Banks 8.2%, BUX 3.8%, CAC 3.8%, China A50 2.3%, DAX 3.4%, DJ Industrials 3.7%, Dow Jones Transports 3.2%, MIB 3.4%, HSCEI 3.1%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 2.9%, IDX 1.8%, S&P SmallCap 600 4.3%, Russell 2000 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.5%, KRE Regional Banks 8.2%, KSE 1.8%, FTSE 250 4.4%, S&P MidCap 400 4.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.9%, Helsinki 2.1%, Stockholm 3.7%, PX 2%, SA40 1.8%, SOX 5.4%, Chile 2.1%, S&P 500 2.9%, TA35 3.1%, FTSE 100 3.1%, WIG 1.8% and the ASX Materials Index rose 2.6%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.8%), Lean Hogs (1.7%), JKM LNG (2.2%), Lumber (2.1%), Platinum (3.1%), Cane Sugar (5.2%), Raw Sugar (2.1%), Gold in ZAR (1.5%), KLSE (2.2%), Nikkei 225 (1.9%), Copenhagen (2.1%), SET (2%) and Philippines PSE fell 2.2%.

January 19, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 10, 2025)

January 12, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Austrian, Chilean, French & Dutch 10 year government bond yields

Eurozone 5 year government bond yield

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Brent Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

Heating Oil

Cattle

Natural Gas *

Gasoil

Corn

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2,5 and 10 year government bond yield *

Brazilian, Europe and British 10 year government bond yields *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield *

DXY Index *

Arabica Coffee

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD and EUR

Hungary’s BUX Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 2 year bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 5 year bond yield *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

Urea U.S. Gulf 

Gold in ZAR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian 10 year government bond yields * 

ZAR/USD *

FTSE 250 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

AUD/THB

AUD/USD

CAD/USD *

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

NZD/USD

RMB/USD *

DKK/USD *

INR/USD *

KRW/USD *

SGD/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Newcastle Coal *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

The Euro 10 year yield has risen for 6 weeks straight as has the US10/2 yield spread.

Spanish, French, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks. 

Many of the spreads appearing in last weeks list, no longer appear.

And Czech 10’s broke their 5 week rising streak.

Equities mostly declined.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 13 of the past 14 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 7 straight weeks and for 12 of the past 13.

Some U.S. indices had bearish outside reversal weeks.

Brazil’s BOVESPA breaks its 4 week losing streak and bounces out of oversold.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

While Chinese and Hong Kong equities were notable decliners, again.

The HSCEI Index has fallen 16% since it registered an overbought quinella at the beginning of October 2024.

Commodity prices were mixed.

The broader commodity indices rose due to the weighting of their constituents.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is overbought while the CRB is near.

Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Grains and Base Metals were the notable gainers.

Coal, LNG, Cocoa and Orange Juice were amongst the weeks losers.

Arabica coffee returns to being overbought, while Rice bounced from oversold territory.

Coal prices are in oversold territory.

Gold as priced in AUD and CAD has risen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Following last week’s quip, Nickel bounced.

Sugar has fallen for 12 of the past 14 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas fell 9%, giving up half of the 18% gain seeing the previous 3 weeks. 

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 33 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 84 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again and again.

The DXY (USD) Index remains in overbought territory,

The AUD was weak and it returns to being oversold versus the USD and against the THB.

It has fallen 6 weeks straight against the former.

The Loonie rose and did the Yen.

The Pound Sterling was weaker.

The Swiss Franc has fallen for 5 weeks against the USD.

The Loonie remains oversold versus the USD as does China’s Renminbi.

And the NZD/USD has fallen for 13 of the past 15 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 3.7%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 4.1%, Brent Crude 3.6%, WTI Crude Oil 3.5%, Lean Hogs 2.2%, Copper 5.7%, Heating Oil 6.5%, Lumber 2.1%, Cattle 2.4%, Tin 4.5%, Natural Gas 18.9%, Nickel 3.7%, Palladium 5%, Platinum 5%, S&P GSCI 3.1%, CRB Index 3.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 4%, Gasoil 4.2%, Silver in AUD 3.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 3.1%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 3.7%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 4.1%, Corn 4.4%, Oats 1.9%, Rice 3.8%, Soybean 3.4%, BUX 2.5%, CAC 2%, DAX 1.6%, Chile 1.6% and Italy’s MIB rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (4.1%), Richards Bay Coal (7.1%), Rotterdam Coal (6.6%), Baltic Dry Index (2.2%), Cocoa (5.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.1%), Lithium Hydroxide (7.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.3%), Orange Juice (3.1%), Sugar (2.2%), Sugar (2.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.3%), Uranium (1.7%), KBW Banks (2.3%), China A50 (2.8%), DJ Industrials (1.8%), Egypt 30 (2.1%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (3.5%), Jakarta (2%), S&P Small Caps 600 (2.7%), Russell 2000 (3.4%), Nasdaq Composite (2.3%), KLSE (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (3.7%), KSE (3.7%), FTSE 250 (4.2%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.7%), Nasdaq Biotech (1.7%), Nasdaq 100 (2.2%), Nikkei 225 (1.8%), NIFTY (2.4%), SENSEX (2.3%), SOX (2.4%), Vietnam (1.9%) and the S&P 500 fell 1.9%.

January 12, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 27, 2024)

December 29, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 2 year bond yield 

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 5 year bond yield 

Chilean 2 and 10 year government bond yields

Swedish 10 year government bond yield

Japan Korean Marker (JPM) LNG

Natural Gas

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2 year government bond yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Arabica coffee *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Brazil 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Rice

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

ZAR/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

RMB/USD *

CAD/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

Uranium

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

INR/USD *

KRW/USD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed overall, with a bias for higher rates. 

Euro 5’s and 10’s yields have risen for 4 weeks straight.

Yields across the British curve have also climbed for 4 weeks, as have Swedish 10’s.

The South Korean 10 year yield has bounced since its oversold reading 3 weeks ago.

Brazilian 10’s have risen for 6 weeks.

Chinese yields broke their 6 consecutive weeks of declines.

The U.S. 10 minus Euro 10 spread is nearly overbought.

While this week sees the return of the Aussie yield curve return to overbought territory.

Equities were stronger, reversing the previous 2 weeks of weakness.

The overreactive decline following last weeks Fed announcement seems comical now. 

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 11 of the past 12 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 5 straight weeks.

The Russell 2000 rose and Oslo’s OBX Index broke their 4 week losing streak.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index is in 5 week losing streaks.

And Indonesia’s IDX is nearly oversold.

Commodity prices were mixed.

Gases, Corn and Wheat were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Oat and Coal prices were amongst the weeks losers.

Aluminium and JKM LNG (in Yen) broke their 4 week losing streaks.

Gold as priced in AUD and CAD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks, as has Corn.

Nickel is now trading 32% below its 200 week moving average and at its lowest close since early June, 2020.

Sugar has fallen for 11 of the past 12 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas has climbed 15% over the past 2 weeks.

The Baltic Dry Index broke its 5 week losing streak,

Palladium has declined for 5 weeks, 

while Uranium extends its loses to 6 consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs and Cocoa broke their respective 5 and 6 straight weeks of gains.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 31 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 82 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie was weaker again.

The Thai Baht is at its highest against the AUD since June 2020.

The AUD has fallen for 10 of the past 13 weeks against the USD and the CAD.

The Euro was firmer.

EUR/JPY has risen for 4 straight weeks.

And so, the Yen was weaker and it has fallen for 4 weeks against the USD.

The Loonie remains oversold versus the USD as does China’s Renminbi.

And the NZD/USD has fallen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Rotterdam Coal 3.2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.6%, JKM LNG 4.6%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.1%, Corn 1.7%, Wheat 2.5%, All World Developed ex USA 1.6%, China A50 2%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 1.9%, TAIEX 3.4%, KLSE 2.3%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Oslo 1.8%, Copenhagen 3.3%, Helsinki 1.7%, PSE 1.9%, SET 2.7%, SMI 1.8%, SOX 3.2%, ASX Financials 3.4%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Industrials 2.1%, ASX Small Caps and Turkiye’s BIST rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australia Coking Coal (2%), Cocoa (15.3%), Lean Hogs (2.1%), Newcastle Coal (1.9%), Orange Juice (2.7%), Uranium (3%), Oats (9.5%), Rice (1.5%), Egypt (1.9%) and Brazil’s BOVESPA fell 1.5%.

December 29, 2024

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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