Urea, Natural Gas and things fertiliser are nearing lows

May 2, 2024 Leave a comment

Following my pithy comment about food, calories and fertiliser,
readers can track my historical posts about this topic here,

https://lnkd.in/gJ-2rQh8

There is continuity in those posts about the relationship that fertiliser prices have with the price of Natural Gas.

The chart below is the latest illustration and update between the U.S. Gulf Urea price and the Henry Hub Natural Gas price.

May 2, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

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It’s quiet on the food front

May 2, 2024 Leave a comment

I remember all of that noise around Urea, Fertiliser, Nitrogen, Grains and the world requiring calories……

……now not so much.

#contrarian

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Middle Eastern Urea prices join the Oversold parade

January 27, 2023 Leave a comment

Overnight’s stunning 12% decline in the Middle East FOB Urea price has seen it revert back to its 200 week moving average, as the chart below illustrates.

It also registered a Weekly Oversold reading which was last seen 3 years ago.

The other 2 charts included show how the prices of Wheat and the Japan Korea LNG Marker dance along with the Middle Eastern Urea price.

January 27, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Buying fertiliser when it smells

January 6, 2023 Leave a comment

In August 2020, the price of Wheat was $5.50 per bushel).

By early March 2022 (Ukrainian invasion), the price of Wheat had doubled to $11.00.

During the same period, the share price of Mosiac has quadrupled from $17 to $68.

This is a story of correlation and the operational leverage that equities can provide.

It’s also a story about identifying extremes especially at the peaks and respecting mean reversion, particularly following frenzied parabolic price moves.

Now, the price of Wheat and Mosiac Company (one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies) are both trading below pre-Ukraine invasion levels.

Today, I am queuing for Oversold extremes in soft commodities and related sector equities.

January 6, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,