Unloved CHF = buy equities

September 2, 2024 Leave a comment

When the CAD/CHF is declining, ‘they’ are selling the Loonie and huddling into the safety of the Swissie.

This happens when ‘we’ don’t fancy a risky environment. That also means risker assets such as equities are also being aggressively disposed.

While not to be used in isolation, the study below shows 16 moments (over the past 40 years) when the CAD/CHF registered a Monthly RSI reading of less than 33.

When it does, perhaps ponder increasing your asset allocation towards equities.

The nuance is which equities (market) to buy.

Currently, it’s close but not there yet.

And remember, currencies don’t lie or tell stories.

September 2, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Currencies tell the truth

August 5, 2024 Leave a comment

Worried? Risk averse?

That’s when investors huddle in the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen…..inversely they dispose of their Australian Dollars.

We are approaching the 7th time (in the past 30 years) that such defensive huddling and perhaps maximum risk aversion has occurred.

The attached monthly study shows that when the CHF/AUD simultaneously registers a monthly overbought reading, trades at 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling average and at a notable percentage above its 50 month moving average…….

you don’t throw away your equities, in a wholesale manner.

In fact, consider the antithesis.

August 5, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Buyers of Swiss Francs are being defensive, consider the antithesis

November 29, 2023 Leave a comment

For the strategic asset allocators;

When the circles represent an overbought condition for CHF/AUD on a Monthly basis, the rectangles on the main chart indicate an opportune moments for accumulating equities.

In this scenario, the S&P 500 is represented by the orange line.

November 29, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Extreme in CHF strength

July 26, 2023 Leave a comment

When the CHF/AUD is overbought (telling us that the Swissie is quite strong against the Aussie) then I prepare to add a little more exposure to the ASX 200.

Although, acknowledging that it’s an extension of a rally rather than a notable low.

July 26, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au


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