What are you trying to squeeze ?

September 28, 2024 Leave a comment

It was 3 years ago when the DAX Index last traded at such extremes.

Mean reversion (or convergence) beckons.

Institutional Asset Allocators…..if you were advised to ‘go long’ and deploy more capital this week, ask why?

I hope the answer isn’t because German (EU) 2’s are yielding the lowest in 2 years?

More ‘extremes’ will be listed in tomorrows edition of Macro Extremes.

September 28, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Currencies tell the truth

August 5, 2024 Leave a comment

Worried? Risk averse?

That’s when investors huddle in the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen…..inversely they dispose of their Australian Dollars.

We are approaching the 7th time (in the past 30 years) that such defensive huddling and perhaps maximum risk aversion has occurred.

The attached monthly study shows that when the CHF/AUD simultaneously registers a monthly overbought reading, trades at 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling average and at a notable percentage above its 50 month moving average…….

you don’t throw away your equities, in a wholesale manner.

In fact, consider the antithesis.

August 5, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

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Is it late at the party?

May 15, 2024 Leave a comment

Within the S&P 500 party, it may be 11pm or perhaps midnight but its not 3am

#spx

May 15, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

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A signal when to add to equities

November 15, 2022 Leave a comment

This study may be useful in conjunction with your other analyses.

Whenever bond prices exhibit medium to longer term overbought tendencies, it points to a reasonable moment when to increase your allocation to equities. 

Now, is not that moment.

Other times, in between these moments, might be considered as ‘trading through the cycle’.

November 15, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,