The great cities won’t die

September 28, 2020 Leave a comment

Reports and theories about cities “dying” are greatly exaggerated.

The novelty and convenience of working from home should wear off and if you are ‘institutionalised’, commercial reality and economic necessity will prevail.

Falling rents, a social yearning amongst those in their 20’s and 30’s and the fact that innovation or progress tends to be more successful in an environment of physical collegiality…….are some of the reasons which will bring people back to the office.

Although some regional centres and cities may prosper, it’s difficult to believe that great cities such as New York and London won’t bounce back.

The investment opportunities will then be in the re-valued property sector and the ancillary commercial real estate services such as Jones Lang LaSalle and OTIS Worldwide.

September 28, 2020

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

What’s been missing in Oil & Gas?

September 26, 2020 Leave a comment

‘Innovation’ has been the most scarce thing in the oil and gas industry over the last 50 years.

That’s a long time to be doing things the same way and expecting a better result.

Oilfield services companies have curtailed and gazumped competitive technology which probably threatened their own staid practices.

It could be curtains for them when E&P companies cease pandering to these incumbent giants and accepting the continually woeful outcome of budget and project overruns.

And within the current market of uneconomic exploration and extraction, what if the E&P companies start using the competing software and technology available to create one of the most important advantages they could possibly yearn for…….

efficiencies

September 27, 2020
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Retail investors on the wrong side of the trade

September 25, 2020 Leave a comment

There was little chance that the AAII Survey respondents would have turned bullish following the market declines seen over the past week.

My take on this contrarian indicator suggests higher stock prices, thus I added to positions the past few days.

See next post…..

September 25, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

We’re only renting Gold

September 25, 2020 Leave a comment

But to be clear about today’s gold post, it is only a “trade”, that’s why I placed that reference, “it’s something to rent rather than own”.

I still think Gold still remains a marginal trade in the larger context as mentioned in these two previous posts.

Mean reversion and extremes above 200 day moving averages warrant attention.

https://lnkd.in/gK9hj-P

https://lnkd.in/gj3fJF8

September 25, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with

The current Gold trade

September 25, 2020 Leave a comment

Gold needs to hold US$1,843….
if it doesn’t, US$1,795 is the next stop.

For now, probability of Gold staying above US$1,850 is increasing;
the AUDUSD is holding 0.7000,
and AUDJPY and Silver registered oversold readings overnight,
while Bitcoin is holding $10,100

On a daily basis, Gold and Silver moved 3 standard deviations below their mean, which coincides with the aforementioned oversold readings.

So, “long” Gold (or a proxy Gold equity) at the current US$1,863 (cash market) is to be treated as a “trade” pending supports being broken.

In other words, it’s something to rent rather than own.

n.b. if Gold trades to $1,795 the AUDUSD should then be around 0.6835.

September 25, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with

A consolidating ASX 200

September 25, 2020 Leave a comment

A reminder that the ASX 200 has traded in a “sideways parallel channel” since May 27, 2020.

That’s 4 months !

Filed under Finance & Investment

Buying the dip

September 25, 2020 Leave a comment

I don’t think equity indices will register oversold RSI readings in this current retracement.

Stocks, currencies and commodities have all had a nice mean reversion, some of the latter “went” oversold BUT “stuff” hasn’t crossed over nor match or have done the things they are supposed to, to tell me that we have deeper to fall.

Thus, I have been adding to positions, initiated some new holdings……it’s not all-in, but I have deployed some capital earlier this week….

today, it’s a bit “safer” than 3 days ago to buy some securities.

As always, do your research or seek advice.

September 25, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Gaps have been “backed and filled”

September 22, 2020 Leave a comment

Equity Index targets mentioned in last week’s newsletter have been reached.

Gold still holding $1,902
Watching the currencies closely.

An obscure indicator for directional moves in equities is Bitcoin. Let’s see if it holds the $10,100 region.

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/market-quips-september-18-2020

September 22, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with

AUDJPY leads SPX moves

September 22, 2020 Leave a comment

A little short-term macro correlation illustration

Below is a 5 minute chart of the AUDJPY versus the S&P 500 mini futures. <AUDJPY is in blue>

Beyond the correlation, note how the currency tends to lead the equity index.

I’ve placed a couple circles to show when a decline in the AUD against the Yen coincided with a fall in the S&P 500 futures.

September 22, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Passive ETF index hugging is “so last year”

September 21, 2020 Leave a comment

It just seems like the age of the stockpicker and macro trader is upon us.

The challenge lays ahead for the passive ETF index hugger.

September 21, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

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