Brent Crude has fallen 12% since my note (3 weeks ago) called a peak.
Last night’s 6% decline (to $68.75) suggests and adds a little more strength to the downward trend.
The two links below discuss my bias for lower prices.
For now the $62 mark is a spot to watch and certain technicals over the coming weeks will help me decide if a new Long position is established there or around the $57 level.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) registered an Overbought reading or traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
USD/KRW (signifying a weaker Korean Won)
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Tin (for the 12th week)
Iron Ore
Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Natural Gas
Switzerland’s SMI equity index (for the 5th week)
and the Copenhagen, Stockholm and Helsinki equity indices.
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
None
Assets (securities) within my immediate universe which touched the other side of the extreme, being Oversold (where the RSI is < 30) or were at least 2.5 standard deviations below its mean are;
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S. Government 10 year bond yields (10’s),
the Australian (10’s), Canadian, U.K., Japanese and Swedish 10’s
and the Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread
Oversold (RSI < 30)
AUD/JPY (a weaker AUD and a stronger Yen suggests ‘risk-off’ is tiring)
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Chinese government 10 year bond yields. (bond buyers have been the more aggressive, thus bond price have been rising)
The notable additions to the ‘extremes’ list is the return of government bond yields, however this time the yields are at the lower end of their range. Interestingly, their ‘trading bands’ are narrowing which portends a change in trend.
The week’s dominant price movers were mainly in the commodities markets..
There was a 5% bounce in Corn and Soybeans, along with a 13% surge in Wheat, which I forecasted in the following 2 links.
Coffee rose 6.5%, Sugar climbed 2.5% while we saw Lumber and Lean Hogs slump 29% and 18% respectively. Neither are Oversold yet.
With the exception of Natural Gas (which is ‘peaking’) the energy complex (crude, heating oil, gasoline) saw declines of between 2%- 3%. These are longer in Overbought territory.
In last week’s Macro Extremes edition, I wrote, many <indices> made ‘lower highs and lower lows’, including the SOX Semiconductor Index, the Russell 2000, the S&P MidCap 400, the U.S. KBW Banking Index and the Dow Jones Transports.
And so this week, we saw the U.S. KBW Banking Index fall 2.5%, the DJ Transports, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the S&P MidCap 400 decline 4%. The small cap Russell 2000 tanked 5%.
The Nasdaq 10, S&P 500 and France’s CAC-40 all retreated from Overbought territory with the latter snapping a 13 week streak in the lofty region.
The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI) and Hang Seng (HSI) equity indices are not at an ‘extreme’ this week, following a 3% rise in each.
Other global equity indices saw a mostly benign week with South Korea’s KOSPI rising 2% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was a mirror opposite falling 2%
The U.S. 10 year bond yield continues to trend lower, falling to 1.29% from last week’s 1.36%. This week, it closed on its low and above the previous intra-week low of 1.25%. The yield of the U.S. 10’s have now fallen from 1.52% a month ago.
The 10’s remain bound in a larger range but we watch it broader capital markets could become explosive is the 10’s break either below 1.25% or above 1.65%.
And lastly, Bitcoin is trading 127% above its 200 Week Moving Average, which is lower than last week’s 146% reading and certainly lower when compared to its 466% peak in mid-April 2021.
Referencing back into what I’ve written about over the past few weeks, the things that I’m watching in the next few days in global capital markets include….
Brent Crude holding $72, my call is a visit to $64; Platinum is creeping higher; Has Lumber found a floor; Russell 2000’s 3.5% decline of past 2 days; A 3.5% bounce in Chinese equities; U.S. bond yields falling (I’m mesmerised); AUD/JPY near oversold; JGB’s nearing 0.00% but shouldn’t go negative; Bitcoin and Ethereum declining; And inflation commentary morsels embedded within U.S. earnings reports.
Globally, 5% more rigs have been put to work since last month. An increase of 63 rigs and it’s being seen in the America’s with the Canadians becoming notably busier.
I’ll assume tar sands become more feasible with Crude at $75?
Wheat has retraced 78.6% of the advance from December 2020.
It’s nearly oversold, it may have a little further, down to the trend line at $6.10 but the ‘fat part’ of the short trade has been had.
On a weekly basis, other technicals suggest similar metrics, coincidences of touching a 50 Week Moving Average, reaching 2.5 standard deviations below its mean and other exhaustions.
Away from technicals, supply fundamentals seem favourable for higher prices again.
Corn prices have retraced an exact 50% of the rally which commenced in August 2020.
In the past few months, I have been writing about parabolic price moves and highlighting the risk of ‘going long’ at what seems the tail end of an advance which sometimes can resemble chasing a mania.
Albeit Corn is currently in a downtrend, my other indicators suggest that the strength of the decline is dubious. If Corn shoots below the 50% retracement mark, it should stop at the 50 Week Moving Average of $4.99.
That’s only a further 5.6%, following an already 28% decline from its $7.35 peak in mid-May.
Let’s not try and squeeze out the last kernel?
Perhaps it’s time to sell my equity holdings in Gruma (the tortilla and taco maker) and Kellogg. Their input prices may start rising again.
