Overbought Aussie small caps

It’s been 4 years since the ASX Small Caps Index has been this type of overbought.

August 18, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending August 8, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

USD/INR *

Thailand’s SET Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

Shanghai Composite Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Spain’s IBEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Polands WIG equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Wheat

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly rose.

The exception included the decline in Spanish and Japanese yields.

Australian 2 and 3 years yields mean reverted.

Indian 10’s have climbed for 5 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 12 straight weeks.

The U.S. 30 year – 10 year bond yield spread is approaching overbought territory.

Equities rose, everywhere.

And there were some beefy advances.

Spain, Thailand and Chile’s main indices join a host of indices are in overbought territory.

The Tel Aviv 35 left overnight territory.

Egypt is in a 5 week winning streak.

Czechia’s main indices have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Karachi, Bangkok and Istanbul are in 7 week winning streaks.

Vietnam’s VN Index has risen for 11 of the past 14 weeks, climbing 29% over that time.

Oslo rose and broke its 4 weeks of decline.

While the Sensex and Nifty has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

Coffee, Aluminium , Cocoa, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers.

Crude Oil, Lumber, Palladium, Gases and Thermal Coal dominated the losers category.

Palladium has declined 13% in the past 3 weeks, since registering an overbought quinella.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices fell, broke a 8 week streak and left overbought territory.

While Robusta Coffee and North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose and are no longer oversold.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel have fallen for 5 weeks.

Cattle prices are in a 7 week winning streak.

Inversely, Oats have fallen for the past 5 weeks.

And Corn and Sugar prices are nearly oversold.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and British Pound rose.

The Euro and Loonie were mixed.

The USD was mostly weaker. 

The Yen fell to mimic the ‘risk-on’ mood.,

The PHP/USD rose and brook its 4 week losing streak. 

And the U.S. Dollar is in a 6 week rising streak versus the Indian Rupee.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 2.4%, Aluminium 2.8%, Cocoa 4.3%, North European Hot Rolled Cow Steel 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 8.9%, Tin 3%, Platinum 1.7%, Robusta Coffee 6.9%, Rice 3.8%, Silver in AUD 2.7%, Silver in USD 3.5%, Shanghai Composite 2.1%, AD02 2.9%, ATX 5.9%, BUX 3.8%, CAC 2.6%, China A50 2.3%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, Egypt 4.7%, FCATC 2.1%, MIB 4.2%, Hang Seng 1.4%, IBEX 4.9%, BOVESPA 2.6%, IDX 2.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, Russell 2000 2.5%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 3.8%, KSE 3.1%, KOSPI 2.9%, Mexico 2.1%, Nasdaq 100 3.7%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, Copenhagen 2.1%, Helsinki 2.4%, Stockholm 2.7%, PX 3.2%, SA40 3.7%, SET 3.3%, SOX 2.7%, IGPA 4.3%, S&P 500 2.4%, IPSA 4.4%, STI 2.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.7%, TSX 2.7%, Vietnam 6%, WIG 5%, BIST 2.1%, ASX 200 1.7%, ASX Industrials 5.2% and ASX SmallCaps rose 4.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), Brent Crude Oil (4.4%), WTI Crude Oil (5.1%), Lumber (6.2%), LNG in Yen (8.1%), Newcastle Coal (2.6%), Natural Gas (3%), Palladium (6.1%), Gasoline (1.5%), S&P GSCI (1.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.5%), Urea U.S Gulf (3.8%), Corn (1.7%) and Israel’s TA35 equity index fell 2.7%.

August 10, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

I’ll tell you this for nothing……Lithium stocks

I’ll tell you this for nothing……

recent buyers of lithium related equities may get torched,

my signals point to a peak in the immediate past rally,

and so, I’ll expect an additional wave lower in their collective stock prices,

to wash out the recently jolly and exuberant.

These are stocks which are the ones you should ‘rent’ rather than ‘own’.

For some of the stock prices, it’ll be a case of “look out below”.


August 8, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending August 1st, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

USD/INR

CSI 300 * 

Shanghai Composite Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (U.S. gulf prices) *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index

Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Polands WIG equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Spanish 10 year bond yields 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly fell.

Australian yields are close to mean reverting.

The U.S. yields re already doing so and look like going lower.

U.K. yields are looking to do the same.

Indonesian 10 yer yield rose and broke a 5 week losing streak.

Indian 10’s have climbed for 4 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 11 straight weeks.

The U.S. 30 year – 10 year bond yield spread is approaching overbought territory,

And the U.S. 5 year ‘real interest rate’ is the most oversold since July 2022.

Equities were weaker.

Many winning streaks were broken and some indices departed overbought territory.

The South Africa 40 and Singapore’s Strait Time were amongst the latter.

U.S. small and mid caps, banks along with the transports were amongst the notable losers 

Copenhagen’s main index suffered due to the downdraft in main weight, Novo Nordisk.

Hungary’s BUX fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

Czechia’s main indices have risen for 5 weeks straight.

While Stockholm, Johannesburg, London, CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite fell and saw their winning streak end at 5 weeks.

Karachi and Bangkok are in 6 week winning streaks.

Vietnam’s VN Index broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance..

Oslo has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

While the Sensex and Nifty has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were mainly lower.

Crude Oil, Lumber, Gold and LNG were the notable gainers.

Aluminium, Shipping Rates, Copper, Platinum, Diesel, Tin, Lithium and Grains dominated the losers category.

Copper, Orange Juice & Palladium drop out of overbought territory. 

Copper’s slump and Gold rise led to a large decline in the Copper/Gold Ratio.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has risen for 4 weeks.

Cattle prices are in a 6 week winning streak.

Urea’s U.S. Gulf price has climbed for 8 straight weeks.

Inversely, Oats have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

JKM LNG rose and broke 5 straight weeks of decline

Base and Industrial metals look like going lower,

And Sugar is nearly oversold.

Currencies were active.

All currencies appearing in last week’s list of extremes have departed the scene.

The Aussie fell and the AUD/CHF is approaching oversold.

The Loonie was mixed.

The U.S. (DXY) Dollar rose 1% and has risen 2% overall since its recent oversold reading.

The Euro was weaker. 

GBP/EUR rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.

Overall, the Yen rose to match the risk-off mood.

Furthermore, the JPY/EUR rose and ended a 9 consecutive weeks of decline.

The Philippine Peso has fallen ro 4 weeks against the USD.

The U.S. Dollar is in a 5 week rising streak versus the Indian Rupee.

A prospective Long in the USD/BRL is attracting my attention,

In fact, many new U.S. Dollars long pair trades are shoring up.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude Oil 3.1%, WTI Crude Oil 3.3%, Lumber 3.2%, LNG in Yen 6.8%, Gasoline 2.7%, Robusta Coffee 3.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.9%, Gold in AUD 2.3%, Gold in CHF 1.9%, Gold in EUR 2.1%, Gold in GBP 2%, Gold in ZAR 2.4%, ASX Financials 1.5% and ASX Industrials rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.1%), Aluminium (4.6%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.6%), Baltic Dry Index (10.6%), Cotton (2.7%), Copper (23%), Heating Oil (3.3%), Arabica Coffee (4.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (3%), Lithium Hydroxide (6.3%), Tin (5.9%), Natural Gas (3.3%), Nickel (2.3%), Orange Juice (27.1%), Palladium (2.9%), Platinum (7.4%), Iron Ore CFR China (2,7%), CRB Index (2.3%), Gasoil (4.7%), Silver in AUD (1.5%), Silver in USD (3%), Corn (2.5%), Oats (2.7%), Rice (2.9%), Soybean (3.1%), Wheat (4%), CSI 300 (1.8%), All World Developed ex USA (2.9%), AEX (2.3%), ATX (2.6%), KBW Banks (4.4%), CAC (3.7%), China A50 (2.3%), DAX (3.3%), DJ Industrials (3%), DJ Transports (7.7%), FCATC (2.8%), MIB (1.9%), HSCEI (3.8%), Hang Seng (3.5%), IBB biotechs (1.8%), S&P small caps 600 (3.9%), Russell 2000 (4.2%), Nasdaq Composite (2.2%), KRE Regional Banks (5%), KOSPI (2.4%), FTSE 250 (1.9%), S&P Midcaps 400 (3.5%), NBI biotechs (1.5%), Nasdaq 100 (2.2%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%), Copenhagen (8.6%), Helsinki (3%), Stockholm (2.8%), PSE (1.7%), SOX (2.1%), S&P 500 (2.4%), STI (2.5%), Nasdaq Transports (4.9%), TSX (1.7%), Vietnam (2.4%), WIG (2.6%), XBI biotech (1.9%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 3.9%.

August 3, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Copper’s parabola mean reverts, quickly

In last weeks edition of my weekend Macro Extremes publication, the price of Copper appeared in the overbought quinella section.

But that won’t be the case his week.

The price of #Copper fell 23% this past week and it mean reverted.

Readers of my work will relate my warnings about mean reversion. This time, it happened very quickly.

But it’s not being ‘short’ Copper.

It was more about not chasing and buying at extreme levels, irrespective of the ‘narratives’.

p.s. this word “narrative” is doing much damage……

August 2, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

A rare 9 week winning streak for Microsoft

Just for sport……#Microsoft shares are currently in a 9 week winning streak.

I don’t think I’ve seen such a streak in that stock for over 20 years…..

While short-term stuff isn’t my style, if there is a bet to make….

I’ll say, with 2 days left in the trading week and #MSFT reporting earnings tomorrow………..Microsoft’s stock will break its 9 week streaks of consecutive advance, at the end of this week.

July 30, 2025

Macro Extremes (week ending July 25, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Orange Juice 

Palladium  *

Shanghai Rebar Steel

CSI 300

ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (U.S. gulf prices) *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

CHF/JPY

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa 40 equity index * 

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Polands WIG equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Copper

Shanghai Composite Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF

CAD/EUR

JPY/CHF

USD/CHF

JPY/EUR

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed, again.

Australian, Spanish, Japanese, Swedish and shorter dated American yield rose,

The rest fell.

Canadian 10 year bond yields fell and broke their 4 straight weeks of advance.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 10 straight weeks.

And the U.S. 10 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly overbought. 

Equities were subdued and mostly stayed in a tight range.

The overbought brigade extend their stay for another week.

U.S. biotech and Transports has a good week as did the Nikkei 225.

The ASX Financials Index was the largest loser.

Hungary and Czechia’s main indices have risen for 4 weeks straight.

The Shanghai Composite and the CSI 400 have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Karachi, Stockholm, Johannesburg, Bangkok and London are also in 5 week winning streaks.

Vietnam’s VN Index has climbed for the past 6 weeks.

While the Sensex has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

And the Philadelphia SOX index fell and broke its 8 week winning streak. 

Commodities were mixed, again, again.

Coal, Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Copper and Lean Hogs were the notable gainers.

Oil, Distillates and Gases, Palladium, Platinum, Sugar and Corn dominated the losers category.

Platinum drops out of overbought territory.

Gold price were softer.

Cocoa and Rice both rise and left oversold land.

The latter broke a 5 week falling streak.

Cattle has risen for 5 weeks.

Copper and Rubber are in 6 week winning streaks.

Urea has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

Robusta Coffee fell and gave up all of last weeks 4% gain.

JKM LNG has slumped for 5 straight weeks,

And Australian Coking Coal rallied following my observations in last weeks edition.

Currencies were active.

We saw several currency Pais re-enter extreme territory this week.

The Aussie rose, reversing last weeks weakness.

The Loonie was weaker.

The CHF/JPY is in a 9 week winning streak.

Overall, the U.S. (DXY) Dollar was weaker.

The Euro saw strength.

So much so, the EUR/USD is an inch from being overbought. 

While the EUR/GBP and the EUR/JPY are in respective 4 and 9 week winning streaks.

The Pound Sterling was weaker,

And the Yen was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australia Coking Coal 10.3$, Richards Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 1.7%, Rotterdam Coal 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 10%, Cocoa 6.8%, Lean Hogs 2.1%, Copper 3.2%, Lithium Hydroxide 1.8%, Tin 5.2%, Newcastle Coal 2.8%, Tin 1.8%, Rice 2%, Shanghai Composite 1.7%, CSI 300 1.7%, All Word Developed ex USA 1.8%, ATX 2%, KBW Banks 1.6%, IDX 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.2%, FCATC 3.3%, HSCEI 1.8%, HSI 2.3%, IBB biotechs 4.5%, IBEX 1.8%, S&P SmallCap 600 0.9%, Russell 2000 0.9%, S&P MidCap 400 1.4%, Mexico 1.9%, NBI biotechs 3.6%, Nikkei 4.1%, Copenhagen 3.2%, Helsinki 2.2%, Stockholm 2.3%, PSE 1.7%, S&P 500 1.5%, STI 1.7%, Nasdaq transports 4.3%, Vietnam 2.3%, XBI biotechs 1.6%, BIST 2.7% and the ASX Materials rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.6%), WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Heating Oil (2%), Arabica Coffee (2%), LNG in yen (5.5%), Natural Gas (12.8%), Palladium (3.7%), Platinum (2.3%), Gasoline (2.4%), Robusta Coffee (3.6%), Sugar (3.2%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.3%), Gasoil (1.5%), Corn (2.2%), Wheat (1.5%), KRE Regional banks (2.1%), SOX (1.5%), ASX 200 (1%) and the ASX Financials fee 3.9%.

July 27, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au