Macro Extremes #284 (week ending October 30th, 2026)
November 1, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.
NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.
* denotes multiple-week inclusion.
Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
10-year Brazilian government bond yields
AUD/EUR *
OMX Copenhagen
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Belgian, French and Indian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate *
Copper/Gold Ratio
Richards Bay Coal *
Rotterdam Coal *
Brent and WTI Crude Oil *
JKM LNG in USD and Yen *
Gasoline
Dutch TTF Gas *
Uranium
Rice *
Japanese Naphtha *
CNH/USD *
USD/IDR
USD/MXN *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Indian 10-year government bond yields
CAD/EUR
GBP/EUR *
Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Silver
Tin
BRL/USD
Egypt’s EGX-30 Index
Thailand’s SET Index
Chile’s IGPA Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Lithium Hydroxide
PHP/USD *
Shanghai Composite *
CSI 300 Index *
China A50 Index *
FCATC Index
Türkiye’s BIST Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Lean Hogs *
Palladium *
Platinum
EUR/CAD *
EUR/GBP
Indonesia’s IDX Composite
Notes & Ideas
Government Bond Yields Fell
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2-year bond yield spread has fallen for 4 weeks, as has the U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yield spread, U.S. BB bond yield index, Japanese 10-year yield, TBT, TBX and U.S. 3, 5, 7-, 10-, 20- & 30-year yields.
In addition, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3-month bill yield spread, U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread, U.S. 10 year minus EU 10-year bond yield spread and the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. breakeven inflation rate spread have also declined for 5 weeks.
Brazilian 10’s soared.
Irish 10-year bond yields, American 2’s, Japanese 3’s, Dutch 10’s and the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate have declined for 5 weeks.
Inversely, IEF, IEI, SHY and TLT have risen for 4 weeks.
And Indian 10-year yields fell to break a 10-week rising streak.
Equities Were Surprisingly Mixed
Copenhagen and the SMI have risen for 4 weeks.
ASX Industrials are in a 5-week winning streak.
SOX has fallen for 4 weeks.
Shanghai Composite and FCATC have sunk for 6 weeks.
BIST has declined for 7 weeks.
CSI 300 and China A50 are in 12 week losing streaks.
The All World Developed ex USA and KOSPI rose and snapped 4-week losing streak.
The KSE, OMXH and XSO rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.
The ASX Materials rose to end 8 weeks of losses.
The IBB biotech ETF has soared 7.5% in the past 2 weeks,
And Brazil’s BOVESPA’s 18% decline for the week erases only 10 weeks of work.
Commodity Prices Were Mixed
Coal, Steel, LNG and Uranium were the notable gainers.
Cotton, Precious Metals, Hogs, Coffee, Sugar and Oats were amongst the largest decliners.
JKM LNG and Rubber have risen for 4 weeks.
Dutch TTF Gas has closed higher for 5 weeks.
Brent Crude has risen for 6 weeks.
Cocoa, Hogs and Lithium Carbonate have fallen for 4 weeks.
Corn has sunken for 5 weeks.
Platinum has fallen for consecutive 6 weeks.
Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 9 weeks.
Silver has fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.
And Nickel is nearing an oversold reading
Currencies Were Quieter
The Aussie, Loonie and British Pound were stronger.
CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY have risen for 4 weeks.
CAD/EUR and GBP/EUR are in 5-week winning streaks.
The Yen was weaker.
USD/MXN has closed higher for 8 weeks.
The COP/USD fell and broke a 4-week winning streak
And the USD/KRW rose and snapped a 5-week winning run.
The Week’s Larger Advancers
The larger advancers over the past week comprised Richards Bay Coal 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 9.4%, TTF 10.9%, Uranium 2.5%, Gasoil crack 2.9%, ATX 2.4%, BUX 2.3%, CAC 2.4%, DAX 2.5%, DJT 1.4%, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul 2.4%, MIB 1.9%, HSCEI 1.4%, IBB 4.8%, IJR 1.5%, Dublin 1.9%, Russel 2000 1.3%, KSE 2.5%, Kospi 3.3%, NBI 4.7%, OBX 2.1%, Copenhagen 4.9%, OMXS 3%, PX 1.7%, Sensex 1.8%, SMI 2.4%, XBI 4.3%, XJO 1.3%, XMJ 4% and XSO rose 2.7%.
The Week’s Larger Decliners
The group of largest decliners for the week included Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.7%), Cocoa (2.5%), Cotton (3%), Palm Oil (2.8%), Gold (2.7%), Gold (2.7%), Hogs (10.2%), Heating Oil (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (6.6%), Cattle (4.4%), Lithium Carbonate (4.3%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Nickel (3.8%), Orange Juice (6.8%), Palladium (6.1%), Platinum (8%), Sugar (4.4%), Silver (8.7%), Tin (3.4%), Corn (1.8%), Oats (7.6%), Soybeans (2.7%), Wheat (3.4%), Brent crack (2.9%), Shanghai Composite (2.5%), CSI 300 (2.9%), IDX (7%), EGX (2.9%), FCATC (6.9%), IBEX (1.8%), Bovespa (18.1%), Taiex (1.8%), IXIC (2%), NDQ (2%), SET (2.8%), IGPA (4.4%), TA35 (1.6%), VN Index (1.8%) and BISTY fell 3.2%.
November 1, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
About Rob Zdravevski
