Macro Extremes #286 (week ending November 13, 2026)
November 14, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.
NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.
* denotes multiple-week inclusion.
Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 10-year yield minus Australian 10-year yield spread
U.S. 10-year yield divided by Australian 10-year yield
CAD/AUD *
USD/AUD
USD/BRL *
Dubai’s DFM Index
Ireland’s ISEQ Index *
Mexico’s IPC Index *
Denmark’s OMXC Index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. high yield bond index *
French 10-year bond yield
U.S. 3-month bill yield
JKM LNG in Yen *
Rice *
GBP/EUR
USD/DKK
Poland’s WIG Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
None
Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian 10-year yield minus U.S. 10-year yield spread
Copper
Tin *
AUD/CAD *
AUD/INR *
AUD/SGD *
AUD/USD
BRL/USD *
And Israel’s TA-35 Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Lean Hogs
Lithium Hydroxide *
Palladium
EUR/GBP *
EUR/USD
CSI 300 Index *
China A50 Index *
China FCATC Index
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas
Government Bond Yields Rose.
Understandably so, for all the streaks listed last week have been broken.
The anomaly was that U.S. BB yields fell.
Equities Were Surprisingly Higher.
Except for some Asian indices, with the KLSE nearing mean reversion.
Copenhagen and the SMI have risen for 6 weeks.
ASX Industrials are in a 7-week winning streak.
France’s CAC40 has risen 7.5% in the past 3 weeks.
And China’s A50 squeezed out a weekly gain and snapped its 13-week losing streak.
Commodity Prices Had a Lower Bias
Coal, Gases, Cattle, Oats and Soybeans were the notable gainers.
Aluminium, Crude, Copper, Lithium, Platinum Silver and Gold were amongst the largest decliners.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has fallen for 4 weeks.
Copper has slumped for 5 weeks.
Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.
Corn, Oats, Soybeans & Wheat rose and broker their respective losing streaks.
While the Baltic Dry Index has closed higher for the past 4 weeks.
Currencies Were Active
The British Pound and U.S. Dollar firmed.
The Aussie and Swissie were mostly weaker.
The Yen rose against all except the USD.
The Loonie was mixed.
EUR/GBP has fallen for 7 weeks.
EUR/CHF rose and snapped 8 weeks of losses.
The USD is overbought against the DKK for the first time in 2 years.
And The USD is nearing mean reversion against the CHF.
The Week’s Larger Advancers
The larger advancers over the past week comprised:
Rotterdam Coal 1.8%, Baltic Dry Index 7.7%, Palm Oil 4.8%, Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 2.3%, Cattle 3.1%, Newcastle Coal 4%, Natural Gas 7.7%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.3%, Oats 8.2%, Soybeans 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.2%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 3.4%, KBW Banks 2.9%, BUX 1.9%, CAC 2.7%, IDX 5.8% DAX 3.6%, DFM 2.9%, DJ Industrials 2.1%, DJ Transports 4.1%, EGX 1.7%, Tadawul 2%, MIB 3.5%, IBEX 3.4%, Bovespa 2.4%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.2%, ISEQ 1.9%, Russell 2000 1.4%, TAIEX 10%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KSE 2.3%, KOSPI 5.6%, S&P MidCap 400 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 6.5%, OBX 2.6%, Helsinki 1.8%, Stockholm 2.7%, PSI 2.4%, SET 2.7%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 9.4%, S&P 500 2.5%, Eurostoxx 50 3.5%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, FTSE 100 2.1%, WIG 3.7% and ASX Industrials rose 2%.
The Week’s Larger Decliners
The group of largest decliners for the week included:
Aluminium (2.3%), Brent Crude (2.5%), WTI Crude (2.5%), Copper (2.4%), Heating Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (3.3%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.3%), Nickel (2.5%), Orange Juice (2%), Platinum (3%), Gasoline (5.5%), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Silver (6.1%), S&P GSCI (1.7%), Uranium (1.7%), Gold (4.5%), Gasoline crack spread (12.8%), Japanese Naphtha (4.2%), FCATC (3.9%), HSCEI (4.1%), Hang Seng (3.5%), KLSE (1.9%) and the Filipino PSE Index fell 2.9%.
November 15, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
About Rob Zdravevski
