Macro Extremes (week ending August 28, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Palm Oil *

Gold Volatility Index

Sugar #16 *

Uranium

Soybeans

AUD/CAD

ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yields *

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread

Cocoa

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Rubber

Rice *

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

CNH/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index

IBB Biotech Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Canada’s TSX Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Cotton

North European Rolled Steel *

Sugar *

Corn

Wheat

AUD/CHF *

AUD/THB

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

USD/MXN *

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/CNH

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

CHF/AUD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for Korean 10’s along with longer dated U.S. maturities.

While U.S. corporate bond yields fell.

Australian 3-, 5- and 10-year yields, along with Japanese 2’s are in a 4-week winning streak.

And the U.S. 10-year minus 2-year yield spread tanked.

Equities were quieter.

The Saudi Tadawul, Filipino PSI and Türkiye’s BIST are in 4-week winning streaks.

OMX Copenhagen has closed higher for 5 consecutive weeks.

OMX Helsinki has risen for 6 weeks.

The OBX is in a 7-week winning streak.

While the ASX Materials Index has risen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Commodities prices were firmer.

Agriculture, Coal, Gases, Iron Ore and Urea were the notable gainers.

Oil, Distillates, Coffee, Silver, Gold and Platinum were amongst the largest decliners.

Corn has soared 21% over 3 weeks, while Rice has risen 11% and Soybeans has climbed 8% over the past fortnight.

Brent Crude, LNG JKM is nearly overbought.

Australian Coking Coal and Wheat prices have risen for 4 weeks.

The former’s forward month is nearing an overbought quinella.

Cotton and Uranium are in a 6-week winning streak.

Cattle have fallen for 4 weeks.

Lean Hogs rose and snapped a 5-week losing streak.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie was firmer, again.

AUD/SGD, AUD/EUR and AUD/JPY are working a 4-week winning streak.

The AUD/USD fell and broke its 8-week winning streak.

The Loonie was weaker.

The CAD/USD fell and snapped its 4-week winning streak.

Swissie was weaker and the Euro was flat.

The Euro was stronger having climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The Colombian Peso fell, performing a bearish outside reversal week and snapped its 5-week winning streak in amongst an advance of 13 weeks over the past 15.

The USD rose and broke its 4 weeks of losses against the DKK.

It also rose against the Mexican Peso to end 5 weeks of lower travel.

The USD/IDR has declined for 4 weeks,

And the USD/KRW has fallen for 8 of its last 9 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 1.7%, Rotterdam Coal 5.5%, Baltic Dry Index 12.1%, Cocoa 10.2%, Cotton 3.4%, Richards Bay Coal 7.8%, HER 2.(%, Iron Ore 3.1%, LNG in Yen 4.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.6%, Natural Gas 4.2%, Palladium 5.8%, Sugar #16 1.6%, CFR Iron Ore 4%, TTF 1.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf 8.8%, Corn 10.9%, Oats 9%, Rice 2.6%, Soybeans 3.9%, Wheat 12.1%, ATX 2.3%, BUX 1.4%, DAX 1.7%, FTSE Saudi 2.7%, Bovespa 2.7%, TAIEX 2.5%, Helsinki 1.7%, Vietnam 3.6% and ASX Materials fell 2.5%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Brent Crude (6.6%), WTI Crude (4.2%), Palm Oil (2.5%), Heating Oil (3.1%), Arabica Coffee (3%), Orange Juice (6.2%), Platinum (2.2%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Tin (1.3%), S&P GSCI (1.6%), Gasoil (2.4%), Silver (3.7%), Gold (2.2%), Gasoil crack spread (2.6%), Gasoline crack spread (9.8%), HSCEI (1.7%), Hang Seng (1.6%), IBB (2.2%), Russell 2000 (1.4%), Kospi (1.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.3%), NBI (2.3%), PSE (4.5%), SET (1.6%), SOX (2.3%), XBI (2%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 2.4%.

August 29, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au