Macro Extremes (week ending August 21, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year government bond yield spread

Danish and Spanish 10 year government bond yields

Palm Oil

Sugar #16 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yields *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD *

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Rice

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Canada’s TSX Index *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the XBI biotech index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2 and 5-year bond yield *

Sugar

And the IBB and NBI biotech ETF’s

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yield

CHF/AUD *

CHF/CAD *

USD/MXN

And Mexico’s IPC Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/CNH

Lean Hogs

Iron Ore CFR China

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Shanghai Rebar Steel

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

Including U.S. corporate bond yields.

This week features only a few entries, but many others are nearing overbought extremes.

Indonesian 10-year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Chinese 10-year bond yields rose and snapped 4 weeks of decline.

Japanese 2-year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks.

Equities were mixed, again.

Many of last week’s streaks have been broken.

The remaining few include.

OMX Copenhagen has closed higher for 4 consecutive weeks.

OMX Helsinki has risen for 5 weeks.

The OBX is in a 6-week winning streak.

While Singapore’s Strait Times fell and snapped its 7-week advance.

Commodities prices were firmer.

Coal, Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Sugar and a bunch of Softs were the notable gainers.

Only Shanghai Rebar and Naptha cracks were amongst the largest decliners.

Brent Crude, LNG JKM as priced in Yen & Heating Oil have soared 12% over the past fortnight.

Cotton and Uranium are in a 5-week winning streak.

Copper, HRC Steel and Tin broke their respective streaks of 4, 6 & 7 weeks of higher prices.

While Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie was firmer, again.

AUD/SGD has risen for 4 weeks.

The AUD/USD is in a 7-week winning streak.

The Loonie was mixed.

While the CAD/USD is in a 4-week winning streak.

The Euro was stronger having climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The Colombian Peso is in a new 5-week winning streak in amongst an advance of 13 weeks over the past 14.

The Yen was notably weaker.

The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the DKK.

It has also slumped for 5 weeks versus the Mexican Peso.

And the USD/KRW completed a mean reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.8%, Brent Crude 6.6%, Cocoa 4.5%, WTI Crude 5.7%, Cotton 4.2%, Palm Oil 6.5%, Heating Oil 5.3%, JKM LNG 7.2%, Arabica Coffee 2.7%, LNG in Yen 7.3%, Newcastle Coal 4.6%, Natural Gas 1.5%, Nickel 1.9%, Orange Juice 6.6%, Palladium 1.9%, Platinum 7.9%, Gasoline 4.9%, Sugar 6.1%, Sugar #16 2.4%, S&P GSCI 4.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 7.2%, Gasoil 5.5%, Uranium 2.2%, Silver 6.6%, Gold 5.2%, Corn 5.4%, Rice 8.4%, Soybeans 3.9%, Wheat 3.6%, Gasoil crack spread 2.2%, Heating crack spread 2%, IDX 1.9%, HSCEI 3.5%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBB 7.7%, Bovespa 2.5%, Mexico 2.1%, NBI 7.1%, South Africa 40 3.9%, IGPA 2.7%, Vietnam 2.3%, XBI 5.3%, BIST 2.4% and the ASX Materials rose 5.6%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Shanghai Rebar (3%), Naptha crack spread (26.3%), ATX (1.5%), KBW Banks (4.1%), CAC (1.8%), FCATC (2.3%), MIB (1.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.1%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (3.9%), KSE (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.4%), Nasdaq 100 (2.5%), Nikkei 225 (3.9%), SOX (5.5%), S&P 500 (1.4%), Nasdaq Transports (1.9%), ASX Financials (5.1%) and ASX Industrials fell 2.1%.

August 23, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au