Stay the course – March 2026 newsletter

It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.

The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.

A selection of equity indices are entering their 4^th and 5^th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6^th week.

An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/

“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”

And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.

For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”

Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”


Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;

the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey




Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.

16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.

These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;

• 1990 recession / Gulf War
• 2002 post-dotcom washout
• 2008 GFC (multiple clusters)
• 2009 final lows
• 2020 COVID shock
• 2022 bear market
• 2025–2026 (current regime stress)

These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;

• forced selling
• sentiment entrenchment
• positioning exhaustion

In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.

As written in past newsletters, 

“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.

In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.

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