A List of Macro Extremes (measured on a weekly basis)
February 20, 2021 Leave a comment
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Copper
Natural Gas
Platinum
Sugar
Tin
Lean Hogs
USD/JPY
AUD 5 & 10 year bond yields
Swedish, Japanese, British, German, Spanish, French & Canadian 10 year bond yields
The Copper/Gold ratio
Gold (in USD)
EUR/GBP
(note: equity indices are not amongst the list)
Overbought (RSI > 70)
AUD 5 & 10 year bond yields
US 10 year bond yields
Swedish, Kiwi, Japanese, British & Canadian 10 year bond yields
Bitcoin
The Copper/Gold ratio
the CRB Index and;
the Russell 2000 (for the 11th straight week, it has risen 20% since it first registered an overbought signal > 70, on November 30th, 2020)
(note: bond yields haven’t been this overbought for 3-4 years.
i.e. bonds are being sold thus, inversely yields rise
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Gold (in AUD) “think Australian listed gold producers”
USD/NZD
EUR/AUD (most oversold since Sept 2014)
“take your strong AUD and buy EUR for your luxury car”
JPY/AUD
“everything Japanese is cheaper with AUD”
USD/AUD
“a strong AUD makes that USD priced helicopter cheaper”
USD/CNH
“Chinese imports into the U.S. cost more”
Note: Due to USD weakness, it’s likely China (CNH) doesn’t welcome such strength in its currency.
February 20, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
