A List of Macro Extremes (measured on a weekly basis)

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)


Natural Gas




Lean Hogs


AUD 5 & 10 year bond yields

Swedish, Japanese, British, German, Spanish, French & Canadian 10 year bond yields

The Copper/Gold ratio

Gold (in USD)


(note: equity indices are not amongst the list)

Overbought (RSI > 70)

AUD 5 & 10 year bond yields 

US 10 year bond yields

Swedish, Kiwi, Japanese, British & Canadian 10 year bond yields


The Copper/Gold ratio

the CRB Index and;

the Russell 2000 (for the 11th straight week, it has risen 20% since it first registered an overbought signal > 70, on November 30th, 2020)

(note: bond yields haven’t been this overbought for 3-4 years.

i.e. bonds are being sold thus, inversely yields rise

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Gold (in AUD) “think Australian listed gold producers”


EUR/AUD (most oversold since Sept 2014)

“take your strong AUD and buy EUR for your luxury car”


“everything Japanese is cheaper with AUD”


“a strong AUD makes that USD priced helicopter cheaper”


“Chinese imports into the U.S. cost more”

Note: Due to USD weakness, it’s likely China (CNH) doesn’t welcome such strength in its currency.

February 20, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski


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