A List of Macro Extremes (measured on a weekly basis)

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper

Natural Gas

Platinum

Sugar

Tin

Lean Hogs

USD/JPY

AUD 5 & 10 year bond yields

Swedish, Japanese, British, German, Spanish, French & Canadian 10 year bond yields

The Copper/Gold ratio

Gold (in USD)

EUR/GBP

(note: equity indices are not amongst the list)

Overbought (RSI > 70)

AUD 5 & 10 year bond yields 

US 10 year bond yields

Swedish, Kiwi, Japanese, British & Canadian 10 year bond yields

Bitcoin

The Copper/Gold ratio

the CRB Index and;

the Russell 2000 (for the 11th straight week, it has risen 20% since it first registered an overbought signal > 70, on November 30th, 2020)

(note: bond yields haven’t been this overbought for 3-4 years.

i.e. bonds are being sold thus, inversely yields rise

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Gold (in AUD) “think Australian listed gold producers”

USD/NZD

EUR/AUD (most oversold since Sept 2014)

“take your strong AUD and buy EUR for your luxury car”

JPY/AUD

“everything Japanese is cheaper with AUD”

USD/AUD

“a strong AUD makes that USD priced helicopter cheaper”

USD/CNH

“Chinese imports into the U.S. cost more”

Note: Due to USD weakness, it’s likely China (CNH) doesn’t welcome such strength in its currency.

February 20, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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