The 1970’s thesis continued – Fashion and Politics

December 16, 2011 Leave a comment

I’m no fashionista but to continue a previous blog where I discussed an analogy covering the 1970’s, I am now seeing bellbottom jeans making a comeback to the stores along with specifically poorly styled shorts, slim tiny skateboards and even tennis-type sun visors.

So, if the current stock market, economic, social and union situation mimics the early 70’s, it won’t be too long before tartan (Bay City Rollers, remember them?) and crocheted bikini’s soon appear. It’s all quite worrying but at least there was Farrah!

Politically, the early 70’s saw an American 2-term President Nixon give way (albeit resigning due to scandal) to a succession of 1-termers in Ford & Carter. “Stability” in policy returned when Reagan took office in 1981.

In the United Kingdom, Harold Wilson’s two-term rule came to an end in 1970 and was followed by single election winners in Edward Heath (conservative) who lost after calling an early election in reaction to striking miners to see Labour’s Wilson return for a shortened term followed James Callaghan’s tenure. Then in 1979, Thatcher took over.

Australia’s government didn’t have any more luck with stability nor scandal.

Liberal PM, John Gorton was deposed mid-term by Billy McMahon who was defeated at election after serving 20 months. In 1972, Whitlam’s (Labor) government was elected with a 9 seat house majority (but didn’t control the senate) and following the ’74 election he lost a further 5 seats in the House of Representatives.

He did also have his share of drama aided by Minerals and Energy minister, Rex Connor who wanted to control the mining industry.

Although installed into office by the Governor-General, Malcolm Fraser’s (Liberal) 7 years as Prime Minister (until 1983) morphed into the relative sensible Hawke/Keating years.

It didn’t seem to matter which political party was in power, the requisite for social and economic happiness was stability in government and a majority in the house.

History does’t seem to bode well for Gillard and Obama!

Filed under Finance & Investment

Be careful what you wish for

December 16, 2011 Leave a comment

When emotions such as anger, disgust and frustration infiltrate the collective sentiment of the population, consensus “group-think” doesn’t provide the sensible, safe answer or result that it might be traditionally assumed.

2010 10 30 - 9442 - Washington DC - Fear-Sanit...

Image by thisisbossi via Flickr

The protests that are occurring around the world are rebellions to the status quo. However when the anger of belligerent protestors is countered with violent reactions by authorities, the decisions being made don’t seem to have the desired effect.
Politically, I think the outcomes that protestors are hoping for, will not turn out how they dreamed.
Whether it’s Mubarak, Putin, Sarkozy, Gillard or Merkel, perhaps it may be the case of better the devil you know.
I anticipate weakness in the U.S. stock market throughout 2012 with a clearer downtrend commencing from the March/April timeframe and lasting into late October.
By the time November 2012 comes around, Obama will stand little chance of being re-elected but a Republican President won’t prove to be any better and may be a worse outcome for the next 4 years.
Under this scenario, governments still won’t find the ability to plan beyond the next 18 months, for soon after, they’ll be back on the campaign trail for the next election.
China’s ability to have rolling 5-year plans should be envy of policy makers everywhere.

Filed under Social Observations