Macro Extremes (week ending September 26, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

Italian 2 and 10 year government bond yields

Uranium

Gold in ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

USD/IDR

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Lean Hogs

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

IDX Composite

China’s FCATC *

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nikkei 225

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Mexico’s IPC Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Rice

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Philippines PSE equity index 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were quiet.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Czech 10 year yields and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield have risen for 4 weeks.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

And Swedish, Italian and Korean 10 year yields are in oversold territory.

Equities were mostly lower, again.

The S&P 500 eased slightly, which was enough to leave overbought land.

We see a return of Spain’s IBEX and Japan’s Nikkei 225 to the overbought list.

HSCEI Index and Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index are no longer at overbought extremes.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 5 weeks.

The ASX Industrials have fallen for 5 weeks, while the Dow Jones Transports rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

AEX, KSE, N225, PX and SOX are in 4 week winning streaks.

The TAIEX has risen for 5 weeks.

The DJ Transports rose and broke 4 weeks of loses.

The Russell 2000 fell and broke a 7 week streak of advance.

Canada’s TSX technically broke its 7 week winning streak by falling a mere 0.02%.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 8 weeks.

Commodities were busy and mostly firmer.

Oils, Precious Metals, Lumber, Copper, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Steel, Urea, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

Uranium joins Gold in overbought territory.

Lumber rose and isn’t oversold.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Gasoil has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 6 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 8 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 9 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

There have been some changes in this weeks currency entrants and some streaks are developing and extending.

The Aussie was weaker, again.

The Euro and CHF were firmer.

Swissie/Yen has risen for 6 weeks, but CHF/USD fell and broke its 6 week winning streak.

The Loonie eased.

Yen was weaker and we are seeing JPY/EUR fall for 4 weeks and Yen/USD down for 5 weeks.

The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the South African Rand,

And the Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Brent Crude 5.2%, Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 5.3%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 5.4%, Arabica Coffee 3.2%, Lumber 4.6%, Palladium 12.1%, Platinum 11.2%, Gasoline 4%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Sugar 2.7%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 2%, Gasoil 5.7%, Uranium 5.9%, Silver in AUD 7.7%, Silver in USD 6.9%, Gols in AUD 2.8%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2.4%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Mexico 1.8%, XBI Biotechs 2.5%, ASX Materials 5.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (4.6%), U.S Midwest Hot Coiled Steel (3%), LNG in Yen (2.1%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (2.2%), HSCEI (1.8%), Hang Seng (1.6%), KRE (1.8%), KOSPI (1.7%), NIFTY (2.7%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PSE (3.8%), SENSEX (2.7%), SMI (1.5%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 1.5%.

September 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending July 11, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio

Copper

CSI 300 Index

Shanghai Composite Index *

China A50 Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle

Urea (U.S. gulf prices)

Gasoil

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY *

CHF/USD *

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index

South Korea’s KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Palladium 

Platinum 

Urea (Middle East) prices

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR *

USD/CHF *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, except for Finland’s and Indonesia’s.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

China’s 10 year yields have declined for 6 weeks.

Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread is at maximum bullishness

And the U.S. 10 year divided by Aussie 10 year yield is entering a new downtrend.

Equities were generally higher, although subdued compared to recent weeks.

This week sees some Chinese indices registering some overbought extremes.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 7 week winning streak. 

Hungary’s BUX and Vietnam’s VN Index are also overbought this week.

The latter is in a 4 week winning streak along with Israel’s TA35.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oil, Copper, Precious Metals, Urea and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.

Rubber is in a 4 week wining streak.

Urea has climbed for 5 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight and has registered an overbought quinella.

Orange Juice soared and broke its 5 weeks losing streak.

Aluminium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Sugar rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Rice has fallen for 4 weeks.

Arabica is in a 5 week losing streak.

Corn is nearing an oversold quinella.

And Nickel’s downtrend is picking steam.

Currencies were active, again.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index rose and leaves oversold territory.

The USD/CHF is at maximum bearishness.

Brazil’s Real few and broke its 5 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Euro and Yen were both weaker.

The EUR/JPY has climbed for 7 weeks.

CAD/CHF is in a 5 week losing streak.

CHF/JPY has risen for 7 weeks.

The Aussie rose. 

The AUD/IDR and AUD/JPY have risen for 4 weeks.

The latter is nearing an overbought reading.

The AUD/EUR rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The Swiss rose.

The Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2.8%, Rotterdam Coal 2.8%, Brent Crude 3%, Baltic Dry Index 15.8%, WTI Crude Oil 2.2%, Palm Oil 2.8%, Copper 9%, Heating Oil 3.3%, Cattle 3.8%, LNG in Yen 4.9%, Newcastle Coal 3.8%, Orange Juice 31.5%, Palladium 11.8%, Platinum 6.4%, Gasoline 3.2%, Sugar #16 4.1%, Rubber 1.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.8%, Urea (U.S. Gulf) 3.6%, Gasoil 5.4%, Urea Middle East 5.7%, Silver AUD 3.6%, Silver USD 4%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Gold in ZAR 2.6%, ATX 2.3%, CAC 1.7%, IDX 2.7%, DAX 2%, KSE 1.8%, KOSPI 4%, STI 1.9%, Vietnam 5.1% and XBI Biotechs rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.5%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (3.3%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.8%), Natural Gas (2.8%), Robusta (12.5%), Uranium (6.8%), Corm (5.8%), Oats (4.9%), Soybean (4%), Wheat (2.1%), Mexico (2.4%) and the BOVESPA fell 3.6%.

July 12, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au