Macro Extremes (week ending December 5, 2025)

December 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Norwegian 10 year bond yields

Euro 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF

AUD/EUR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Transports

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY

CNH/USD

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Japanese government bond yield curve *

Swedish 10 year government bond yields

Baltic Dry Index *

Tin

MYR/USD*

USD/INR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield

CHF/AUD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bonds

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Canadian 10’s soared.

The whole of the Australian and Japanese yield curve is overbought and the Eurozone is nearly so.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 7 weeks,

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year yield spread has fallen for 6 weeks.

Equities moved higher, again.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Brazil’s Bovespa left overbought territory.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF have risen for 4 weeks.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed.

Shipping Rates, Silver Cocoa, Tin, Cattle and Natural Gas were the notable gainers. 

Lithium, Orange Juice, Dutch TTF Gas, Sugar, Soybeans and Coffee dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans fell and broke a 7 week winning streak.

Natural Gas have risen for 7 weeks and has soared 39% over that time.

Cattle & Palm Oil rose enough to leave their oversold extremes.

Richards Bay Coal is close to doing the same.

The Baltic Dry Index and Iron Ore prices have risen for 5 weeks.

The former has soared 34%in those 5 weeks.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel have declined for 4 weeks.

And Wheat and U.S. Gulf Urea prices have slumped for 5 weeks.

Currencies were orderly.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 4 week losing streak.

The Aussie rose, resulting in a few overbought results.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.8%, Aluminium 2.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.2%, Baltic Dry Index 6.5%, Cocoa 3.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2.6%, Copper 3.6%, Heating Oil 2.6%, Cattle 4.3%, Tin 6%, Natural Gas 9%, SOGSCI 1.7%, Silver in USD 3.5%, Silver in AUD 2.1%, ATX 1.4%, BKX 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, EGX 3.7%, IBEX 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.8%, KOSPI 4.4%, Helsinki 1.7%, Stockholm 1.4%, SA40 1.5%, SOX 3.8%, TA35 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.7%, Vietnam 3% and ASX Materials Index rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

JKM (1.9%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), LNG in Yen (5.8%),Lithium Carbonate (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (5%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Orange Juice (6.6%), Platinum (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (5.9%), Sugar (2.7%), Sugar #16 (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (4.3%), Gold in AUD (1.9%), Gold in CAD (1.7%), Gold in ZAR (1.6%), Oats (2.8%), Soybeans (2.9%), IBB (1.5%), WIG (1.7%) and ASX Industrials Index fell 1.6%.

December 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 26, 2025)

September 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

Italian 2 and 10 year government bond yields

Uranium

Gold in ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

USD/IDR

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Lean Hogs

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

IDX Composite

China’s FCATC *

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nikkei 225

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Mexico’s IPC Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Rice

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Philippines PSE equity index 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were quiet.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Czech 10 year yields and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield have risen for 4 weeks.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

And Swedish, Italian and Korean 10 year yields are in oversold territory.

Equities were mostly lower, again.

The S&P 500 eased slightly, which was enough to leave overbought land.

We see a return of Spain’s IBEX and Japan’s Nikkei 225 to the overbought list.

HSCEI Index and Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index are no longer at overbought extremes.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 5 weeks.

The ASX Industrials have fallen for 5 weeks, while the Dow Jones Transports rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

AEX, KSE, N225, PX and SOX are in 4 week winning streaks.

The TAIEX has risen for 5 weeks.

The DJ Transports rose and broke 4 weeks of loses.

The Russell 2000 fell and broke a 7 week streak of advance.

Canada’s TSX technically broke its 7 week winning streak by falling a mere 0.02%.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 8 weeks.

Commodities were busy and mostly firmer.

Oils, Precious Metals, Lumber, Copper, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Steel, Urea, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

Uranium joins Gold in overbought territory.

Lumber rose and isn’t oversold.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Gasoil has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 6 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 8 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 9 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

There have been some changes in this weeks currency entrants and some streaks are developing and extending.

The Aussie was weaker, again.

The Euro and CHF were firmer.

Swissie/Yen has risen for 6 weeks, but CHF/USD fell and broke its 6 week winning streak.

The Loonie eased.

Yen was weaker and we are seeing JPY/EUR fall for 4 weeks and Yen/USD down for 5 weeks.

The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the South African Rand,

And the Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Brent Crude 5.2%, Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 5.3%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 5.4%, Arabica Coffee 3.2%, Lumber 4.6%, Palladium 12.1%, Platinum 11.2%, Gasoline 4%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Sugar 2.7%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 2%, Gasoil 5.7%, Uranium 5.9%, Silver in AUD 7.7%, Silver in USD 6.9%, Gols in AUD 2.8%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2.4%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Mexico 1.8%, XBI Biotechs 2.5%, ASX Materials 5.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (4.6%), U.S Midwest Hot Coiled Steel (3%), LNG in Yen (2.1%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (2.2%), HSCEI (1.8%), Hang Seng (1.6%), KRE (1.8%), KOSPI (1.7%), NIFTY (2.7%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PSE (3.8%), SENSEX (2.7%), SMI (1.5%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 1.5%.

September 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending August 15, 2025)

August 17, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

EU, French, Indian and Dutch 10 year government bond yields 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index *

FCATC Index

Malaysia’s KLSE

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

Shanghai Composite Index *

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

The ASX 200 

And the ASX Small Cap Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian 10 year government bond yield

Lumber

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Russian 10 year government bond yield *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed,

Turkish 10 year and Chilean 2 year yields are in 4 week declining streaks. 

Indian 10’s have climbed for 6 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 13 straight weeks.

Equities rose, everywhere, adding to last week’s beefy advances.

U.S. biotechs, transports, small and mid caps were amongst the better performers.

Austria’s ATX, Malaysia’s KLSE, the FTSE China FCTAC and a few Australian equity indices join many other indices are in overbought territory.

Egypt fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

Czechia’s main indices have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Karachi & Bangkok have put together 8 week winning streaks.

Istanbul’s winning run stopped at 7 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 is a hair away from registering an overbought reading.

Indonesia’s IDX has climber 34% since its oversold quinella seen in March 2025.

While the Sensex and Nifty rose and broke their 6 week losing streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Palm Oil, Coffee, Lithium, Orange Juice and Soybeans Cocoa were the notable gainers.

Coal, Lumber, Gases, Oil and Distillates dominated the losers category.

The big news is that Lithium Carbonate rose enough for it to end its 98 week stay in oversold territory.

Palladium has declined 15% in the past 4 weeks, since registering an overbought quinella.

Cattle prices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Heating Oil, Wheat, Palladium, Gasoil and Henry Hub Natural Gas are in 4 week losing streaks. 

Oats and U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel have fallen for 6 weeks.

Arabica and Robusta Coffee have soared 20% and 25% respectively over the past fortnight. 

And Lumber prices have sunken 13% over the past 2 weeks.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker.

Swissie and Pound Sterling rose.

The USD was mostly weaker. 

As the BRL/USD has risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Yen fell to mimic the continued ‘risk-on’ mood,

And the U.S. Dollar is in a 7 week rising streak versus the Indian Rupee.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 3.7%, Palm Oil 5.1%, Arabica Coffee 10.5%, Cattle 2.1%, Lithium Carbonate 5%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.6%, Orange Juice 4.8%, Robusta Coffee 18%, Urea Middle East 2%, Uranium 1.5%, Soybeans 5.6%, Shanghai Composite 1.7%, CSI 300 2.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.9%, ATX 2.7%, CAC 2.3%, China A50 2%, IDX 4.8%, DJ Industrials 1.7%, DJ Transports 2.1%, FCATC 3.9%, MIB 2.5%, HSCEI 1.6%, Hang Seng 1.7%, IBB 5.1%, IBEX 3.1%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 3.1%, Nasdaq Composite 0.8%, KRE Regional Banks 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 1.6%, NBI 5%, Nikkei 225 3.7%, Stockholm 1.5%, PX 1.6%, SMI 1.8%, IGPA 2.5%, S&P 500 0.9%, IPSA 2.6%, Nasdaq Transports 4.3%, Vietnam 2.8%, XBI 6.2%, ASX 200 1.5% and the ASX Materials Index rose 3.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (3.2%), Richards Bay Coal (2%), WTI Crude Oil (1.7%), EHR Steel (1.4%), Heating Oil (2.3%), JKM LNG (4.3%), Lumber (6.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (4.5%), Natural Gas (2.5%), Palladium (2.2%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.4%), Gasoil (2.1%), Gold in AUD (1.6%), Gold in CHF (2%), Gold in EUR (2.4%), Gold in GBP (2.6%), Gold in USD (1.9%), Oats (1.5%) and Wheat fell 1.6%.

August 17, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 11, 2025)

July 12, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio

Copper

CSI 300 Index

Shanghai Composite Index *

China A50 Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle

Urea (U.S. gulf prices)

Gasoil

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY *

CHF/USD *

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index

South Korea’s KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Palladium 

Platinum 

Urea (Middle East) prices

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR *

USD/CHF *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, except for Finland’s and Indonesia’s.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

China’s 10 year yields have declined for 6 weeks.

Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread is at maximum bullishness

And the U.S. 10 year divided by Aussie 10 year yield is entering a new downtrend.

Equities were generally higher, although subdued compared to recent weeks.

This week sees some Chinese indices registering some overbought extremes.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 7 week winning streak. 

Hungary’s BUX and Vietnam’s VN Index are also overbought this week.

The latter is in a 4 week winning streak along with Israel’s TA35.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oil, Copper, Precious Metals, Urea and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.

Rubber is in a 4 week wining streak.

Urea has climbed for 5 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight and has registered an overbought quinella.

Orange Juice soared and broke its 5 weeks losing streak.

Aluminium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Sugar rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Rice has fallen for 4 weeks.

Arabica is in a 5 week losing streak.

Corn is nearing an oversold quinella.

And Nickel’s downtrend is picking steam.

Currencies were active, again.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index rose and leaves oversold territory.

The USD/CHF is at maximum bearishness.

Brazil’s Real few and broke its 5 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Euro and Yen were both weaker.

The EUR/JPY has climbed for 7 weeks.

CAD/CHF is in a 5 week losing streak.

CHF/JPY has risen for 7 weeks.

The Aussie rose. 

The AUD/IDR and AUD/JPY have risen for 4 weeks.

The latter is nearing an overbought reading.

The AUD/EUR rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The Swiss rose.

The Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2.8%, Rotterdam Coal 2.8%, Brent Crude 3%, Baltic Dry Index 15.8%, WTI Crude Oil 2.2%, Palm Oil 2.8%, Copper 9%, Heating Oil 3.3%, Cattle 3.8%, LNG in Yen 4.9%, Newcastle Coal 3.8%, Orange Juice 31.5%, Palladium 11.8%, Platinum 6.4%, Gasoline 3.2%, Sugar #16 4.1%, Rubber 1.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.8%, Urea (U.S. Gulf) 3.6%, Gasoil 5.4%, Urea Middle East 5.7%, Silver AUD 3.6%, Silver USD 4%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Gold in ZAR 2.6%, ATX 2.3%, CAC 1.7%, IDX 2.7%, DAX 2%, KSE 1.8%, KOSPI 4%, STI 1.9%, Vietnam 5.1% and XBI Biotechs rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.5%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (3.3%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.8%), Natural Gas (2.8%), Robusta (12.5%), Uranium (6.8%), Corm (5.8%), Oats (4.9%), Soybean (4%), Wheat (2.1%), Mexico (2.4%) and the BOVESPA fell 3.6%.

July 12, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 4, 2025)

July 6, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Platinum

Richards Bay Coal

COP/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Urea (U.S. gulf prices)

CHF/USD *

CHF/JPY

EUR/USD *

GBP/USD

Toronto’s TSX Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Pakistan’s KSE Index 

South Korea’s KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. (DXY) Index *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR *

HKD/USD *

USD/CHF *

USD/DKK *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed.

Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

China’s 10 year yields have declined for 5 weeks.

Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.

Last week’s bond yield spreads are no longer in todays list.

And the U.S. 2 year bond yields have reverted to a longer term mean reversion.

Equities had another good week.

Hong Kong based indices were the few which were lower.

Toronto’s TSX joins the Shanghai Composite in overbought territory.

The former has risen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 6 week winning streak. 

Thailand’s SET index moved out from oversold territory.

Commodities were mixed, again, again, but plenty of streaks are developing.

Oils and Distillates along with Oats, Wheat, Soybeans and Precious Metals were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.

Tin broke its 4 week winning streak.

Lean Hogs broke its 5 weeks of advance.

Urea has climbed for 4 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.

Aluminium is in a 5 week winning streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight.

Orange Juice has fallen or 5 weeks.

Sugar is in a 8 week losing streak.

Arabica is in a 4 week losing streak.

And Robusta Coffee rose and broke its 9 consecutive weeks of losses.

Currencies were active, again.

The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index continues to appear in oversold territory.

And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme readings this week.

A new entrant is the Colombian Peso being overbought against the USD.

The Aussie and Loonie were subdued and mixed again.

Sterling and the USD were both weaker.

The AUD/EUR is in a 4 week losing streak.

Brazil’s Real is in a 5 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Euro has climbed for 6 weeks vs the Yen.

CAD/CHF is in a 4 week losing streak.

CHF/JPY has risen for 6 weeks.

And the Chinese Yuan has strengthened against the USD for 5 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude 3%, WTI Crude 2.3%, Heating Oil 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Platinum 1.8%, Gasoline 2.4%, Shanghai Rebar 1.9%, Urea U.S. gulf prices 2.5%, Gasoil 10.4%, Silver in AUD 2.3%, Silver in USD 2.6%, Corn 2.1%, Oats 6.2%, Soybeans 2.4%, Wheat 3%, CSI 300 1.5%, KBW Banks 4.8%, BUX 1.7%, China A50 2.3%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, DJ Transports 3.6%, IBB biotech ETF 2.8%, BOVESPA 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.3%, Russell 2000 3.5%, Nasdaq Composite 1.6%, KRE Regional Banks 6.4%, KSE 6.1%, S&P MidCap 2.8%, NBI biotech ETF 3%, Nasdaq 100 1.5%, OBX 1.5%, SET 3.5%, SOX 1.8%, S&P 500 1.7%, TA35 4.4%, Nasdaq Transports 3.2%, XBI biotech ETF 2.7%, BIST 9.3% and ASX Materials Index rose 2.9%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (5.6%), Cocoa (9.2%), Lean Hogs (4.7%), Arabica Coffee (4.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (1.8%), Natural Gas (8.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Sugar (2%), Uranium (2.1%), Rice (3.9%), HSCEI (1.8%) and the Hang Seng fell 1.5%. 

July 6, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 27, 2025)

June 29, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium

Uranium

Shanghai Composite

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Platinum * 

KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. (DXY) Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/CHF

CAD/EUR

HKD/USD *

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields generally fell, again, again….

Except for Japanese yields where the 5’s and 10’s broke their 4 week falling streak.

High Yield Corporates are nearing oversold territory.

U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be a maximum bullishness.

Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

The Chinese 10’s have done so for 4 weeks.

U.S. 2 year bond yields are near longer term mean reversion,

While the U.S. 3 year yields already did so.

Equities were had a good week.

Asian indices fared well with the Shanghai Composite registering an overbought reading.

South Korea’s KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 4 week winning streak. 

Norway’s OMX broke its 4 week winning streak.

Indonesias IDX broke its 4 week losing streak.

Thailand’s SET index broke it 6 consecutive weeks of losses.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Oils, Distillates and Gases dominated the losers, along with the Softs.

The Copper/Gold Ratio rose notably which aligned with the ‘rick-on’ appetite seen in equities.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 10% and 24% over the past fortnight.

Gold prices fell and as such Gold Volatility mean reverted.

Tin looks like its set for a higher move as it registers a 4 week winning streak.

Platinum has also risen for 4 week straight, advancing 25% during that time.

Robusta Coffee has sunk for 9 consecutive weeks.

And Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.

Currencies were active.

The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index appearing in oversold territory.

And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme treading this week.

The Aussie was mixed. It was weaker versus the Europeans and stronger in Asia and the USD.

Brazil’s Real is in a 4 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Loonie was mostly weaker with the CAD/EUR in a 4 week losing streak.

The Swissie was stronger and the CHF/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.

EUR/JPY has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

GBP was stronger.

Yen was mixed.

PHP/USD broke its 4 week losing streak

And the USD/INR broke its 4 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Cocoa 9.2%, Cotton 3,9%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 1.7%, Tin 3.3%, Nickel 1.5%, Palladium 9.2%, Platinum 5.8%, Uranium 2.5%, Oats 2.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.8%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks Index 5.6%, DAX 2.9%, Dj Industrials 3.9%, DJ Transports 4.9%, Egypt 9.1%, FCATC Index 4.5%, HSCEI 2.8%, Hang Seng 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3%, TAIEX 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.3%, KLSE 1.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 3.6% FTSE 250 2.7%, Mexico 2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.6%, Nasdaq 100 4.2%, Nikkei 225 4.6%, NIFTY 2.1%, Stockholm 2.4%, SENSEX 2%, SOX 6.4%, S&P 500 3.4%, STI 2.1%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, WIG 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX Materials 1.8%.


For reference, the ASX 200 rose 0.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.6%), Brent Crude (12.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.3%), Baltic Dry Index (10%), DXY Index (1.5%), Palm Oil (2.6%), Heating Oil (10.5%), HRC (2.4%), JKM LNG (7.4%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (13,3%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Natural Gas (6.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Gasoline (10.4%), Robusta Coffee (2.2%), Sugar (1.8%), S&P GSCI (6.1%), CRB Index (4.,1%), Dutch TTF Gas (14.1%), Gasoil (11%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (5.1%), Gold in EUR (4.4%), Gold in GBP (4.7%), Gold in USD (2.8%), Gold in ZAR (4%), Corn (2.8%), Rice (2%), Soybeans (3.4%), Wheat (7.3%), OBX (2.2%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.6%.

June 29, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 2, 2025)

May 4, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SHY

MYR/USD

Mexico’s IPC equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

PHP/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

S&P GSCI (commodities) Index

USD/INR

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australian 2 year government bond yield *

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

USD/SEK *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None’

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose with her exception of Belgium, Brazil and the Japanese curve.

In fact, Brazilian 10’s are approaching overbought territory .

European (German) 10 year yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline. 

South Korean 10’s and Chilean 2’s ended their 4 weeks of lower travel.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 7 week declining streak.

Equities rose, everywhere, again.

The Netherland’s, Norway’s, Thailand’s, Canada’s, Poland’s main equity indices are in 4 week rising streaks.

As are the KBW Banks, the ASX’s Small Caps and Industrials along with some U.S. biotech indices.

Over the past 4 weeks, various indices have risen between 8%-13%.

Transportation indices and Thailand’s SET Index are no longer oversold.

Commodities were mostly lower.

The largest winners were Coals, Gases, Urea, Shipping Rates, Palladium and Uranium.

The notable losers included Oils & Distillates, Tin, Sugar Copper, Cocoa, Silver, Lumber and Coffee.

The big news is seeing Crude Oil prices return to oversold extremes.

Gold prices fell and those priced in USD, GBP and EUR left overbought territory.

Natural Gas broke its 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 5 straight weeks and has climbed to prices not seen since November 2022.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel & Rubber are no longer oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 100 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quiet, for a change of pace.

Continuing last weeks trend, many more currency pairs are not at extremes.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index rose and moved out from oversold territory.

The Aussie was stronger again and is in a 4 week rising streak against the Loonie, Euro and USD.

The Loonie was firmer.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Euro fell, 

And the JPY/AUD is in a 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 1.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 3.5%, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Natural Gas 16.6%, Palladium 1.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.8%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.3%, Uranium 4.4%, All Developed World – ex USA 2.9%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 4.3%, CAC 3.1%, DAX 3.8%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 4.3%, MIB 2.6%, HSCEI 1.9%, IDX 5.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAEIX 4.6%, Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, KLSE 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.6%, Nasdaq Biotechs 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 225 3.2%, Oslo 3.7%, Copenhagen 7%, Helsinki 3.9%, PSI 2.3%, Sensex 1.6%, SET 3.5%, SMI 2.6%, S&P 500 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.2%, ASX Financials 3.3%, ASX 200 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, ASX Industrials 2.6%, ASX SmallCaps 3%, IBB biotech ETF 2.7%, XBI biotech ETF 4.2% and the Philadelphia SOX Index rose 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.6%), Brent Crude Oil (6.9%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (7.5%), Lean Hogs (1.8%), Copper (4.4%), Heating Oil (5.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.5%), Lithium Carbonate (.2%), Tin (6.5%), Gasoline (4.1), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Sugar (5%), Sugar #16 (2.5%), SPGSCI (3.2%), CRB Index (2.7%), Gasoil (6.8%), Middle East Urea (1.9%), Silver in AUD (4%), Silver in USD (3.3%), Gold in AUD (3.1%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (2.5%), Gold in Euro (1.8%), Gold in GBP (2.1%), Gold in USD (2.4%), Gold in ZAR (3.9%), Corn (4%), Oats (5.7%), Rice (2.8%), Palm Oil (4.3%) and Turkiye’s BIST Index fell 2.8%.

May 4, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 18, 2025)

April 20, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/IDR

AUD/ZAR *

CAD/USD *

EUR/GBP

NZD.AUD

NZD/USD

PHP/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

EUR/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

Australian 3 and 5 year bond yields

Polish 10 year bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

USD/CAD

USD/MXN

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Shanghai Rebar

Rubber

AUD/EUR

RMB

USD/DKK

USD/SEK

Dow Jones Transports

S&P SmallCap 600

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Transports

IBB Biotech ETF

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 2 year government bond yield

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

CAD/CHF

AUD/CHF

USD/CHF

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell except for those in Japan.

The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Norwegian 10 year yields are in a 5 week declining streak.

Notably, Australian 2, 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.

European 10’s have fallen for 5 straight weeks while Euro 2’s have done so for 6 weeks.

Equities rose, again.

Equities had a good week, except for the American indices.

All of the equity indices which were in last weeks oversold list, are not there anymore.

For now, it looks like April 4th/7th may signal the lows for global equities. 

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki broke their 5 weeks falling streak

Copenhagen broke its 6 week losing streak.

The IBB Biotech ETF broke its 7 weeks of decline.

Commodities were mainly higher.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 3% over the past fortnight.

Many commodities which were oversold last week are no longer so, including uranium.

Cocoa, Coal, Natural Gas, Palm Oil & Tin were counted amongst the few losers.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Sugar has declined for 4 weeks straight.

Gold as priced in ZAR has risen for 6 weeks. 

Gold in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 98 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

The Aussie rose.

The Loonie was weaker against all except the USD.

The British Pound was stronger as was the Kiwi.

The Yen was mixed as the USD/JPY is approaching oversold levels.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Notably, the Swissie is at oversold extremes against some risk currencies.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.4%, Brent Crude 4.6%, WTI Crude 5.2%, Lean Hogs 5%, Copper 4.8%, Heating Oil 4.1%, JKM LNG 4.9%, Arabica Coffee 5.4%, Cattle 3.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 7.3%, Nickel 3.6%, Orange Juice 8.9%, Palladium 6%, Platinum 3.4%, Gasoline 4.9%, S&P GSCI 2.6%, CRB Index 2.1%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.6%, Gasoil 6.2%, Gold in CAD 2.7%, Gold in CHF 3.3%, Gold in EUR 2.7%, Gold in USD 2.8%, Oats 3.1%, All World Developed ex USA 4.1%, AEX 4%, ATX 5.4%, KBW Bank Index 1.9%, BUX 2.5%, CAC 2.6%, DAX 4.1%, FTSE 100 5.7%, Hang Seng 2.3%, IBEX 5.1%, Bovespa 1.5%, IDX 2.9%, KLSE 3.1%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 2.1%, KOSPI 2.1%, FTSE 250 4%, Mexico 3%, Nasdaq Biotechs 1.5%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, NIFTY 4.5%, Oslo 2.8%, Copenhagen 4%, Helsinki 3.7%, PX 3.2%, Russell 2000 1.6%, South Africa40 4%, SENSEX  4.5%, SET 2%, SMI 3.8%, IGPA 4.8%, IPSA 5.2%, STI 5.9%, TA35 3%, TSX 2.6%, FTSE 100 3.9%, WIG 4.4%, ASX Financials 3.2%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASX Materials 3.2%, ASX SmallCaps 2.3% and the XBI Biotech ETF rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Cocoa (1.7%), Newcastle Coal (2%), Natural Gas (8%), Palm Oil (4.2%), Tin (2.1%), Corn (1.6%), Wheat (1.3%), Dow Jones Industrials (2.6%), Nasdaq Composite (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.3%), SOX (4%) and the S&P 500 fell 1.5%.

April 20, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,