What Now? – December 2025 Newsletter

December 18, 2025 Leave a comment

It has been some time since my July 17, 2025 newsletter.
I haven’t had anything new to say.
 
In that edition, along with the June and April 2025 versions, my main message was;

“I don’t (didn’t) see any structural problems in the global equity market”.
 
Those newsletters contained a host of analysis illustrating that the currency and bond markets told me that the “prospects for equities is OK” and we were not experiencing any peaks nor bubbles.

Since and during, I have been accumulating various equities and building portfolios for clients with the focus on “making money in any type of market conditions”.

I also wrote about the opportunities observed in the healthcare and transport industries, along with Chinese equities and commodities such as Palladium.

They have all performed well.

The latter has soared 70% since it was mentioned in my June 20, 2025 newsletter which is notably more than the 27% rise seen in the Gold price, over the same time.

And the markets have been very kind.

 
You may want to read the April 1, 2025 and April 10, 2025 newsletters where I was stating the case for “buying” rather than running and selling.

Since my April 10, 2025 newsletter, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and the S&P 500 have risen 23%, while the ASX 200 climbed 16%. Those returns should temper and place the giddiness of Gold’s advance within perspective.

While the price of various (and many other) stocks have doubled or more.

Those returns were achieved amidst the cited ‘noise’ and ‘concern’.

That’s why its important to ignore the noise or narrative and rely on the data, mathematics and signals.

This reminder remains intact.
 
 
Between April 2025 and now, I have taken profits in selected stocks and started positioning portfolios is a new series of stocks which seem to be unwanted and trading at much cheaper valuations than I’ve seen at any time over the past few years.
 

  • Today, I am discovering many investing ideas across the equity markets.
  • One doesn’t find such a range of opportunities when the market is forming a peak.
  • Inversely, when equity markets are at or near a peak, I can’t usually find anything worthy of investment.

 
Furthermore, there are so many high-quality companies which are attractively priced that investors don’t need to trawl through the gutters of speculation.  
 
My current areas of interest include a range of companies in software, online marketplaces, data and verification providers, brand name chemical companies, cloud accounting and some selected biotech’s.

Coming soon, I anticipate including energy and building materials companies to that list.
 
And I still don’t see any structural problems in the global equity markets.
 
 
Thank you for being a reader of my various opinions and views and I hope you find a nugget of value within them.

Also, thanks to those who forward to and share my newsletter with others.
 
Season’s Greetings to all and wishing you a prosperous and healthy 2026.
 

Until next time,

Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

.
In between newsletters, you can read my varied commentary across a range of markets and asset classes on my blog or Linkedin page.

Feel free to pass this onto your friends and professional associates. They are also welcome to contact me on +61 438 921 403 or send an email to rob@karriasset.com.au


“I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere” – Stanley Druckenmiller

“If you can’t accept volatility in the value of your assets, allow me to introduce you to a bank term deposit” – Me

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Macro Extremes (week ending December 12, 2025)

December 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greece, Indian, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

AUD/CHF *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

THB/USD

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P MidCap 400

Copenhagen’s OMX

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Euro bond yield curve

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver in AUD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX

Brazil’s BOVESPA

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The S&P Biotech ETF *

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Silver in USD *

AUD/INR *

MYR/USD*

USD/INR *

U.S. KBW Bank Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

Lithium Hydroxide *

Dutch TTF Gas *

CHF/AUD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Urea (U.S. gulf)

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for short dated U.S. paper and the British yield curve.

Swiss 10’s soared.

A bunch of new bond yields appear in this weeks list.

The Australian, Euro and Japanese yield curves are overbought.

Kiwi 10 year yields have climbed for 8 weeks,

Whilst Japanese 10 year yield fell slightly, which ends its 7 week rising streak.

Turkish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks, as have U.S. 3 month bills.

And the U.S. 2 year bond is yielding less than the U.S. 3 month bill.

Equities had a slightly higher bias.

More indices joined the overbought extreme list.

While most indices closed either +/- 1% from last week but intra-week there were gyrations.

Brazil’s Bovespa returns overbought territory.

U.S. Regional Bank Index and the Nasdaq Transportation Index have risen for 4 weeks.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.

Chile’s IGPA is in a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Cocoa, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases and Distillates, Oats and Palm Oil dominated the losers category.

Natural Gas tanked 22% and erased half of the 39% gain seen in the previous 7 week winning streak.

The Baltic Dry Index also fell hard, wiping 19% of the 34% seen in the 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Rice is in a 4 week losing streak.

Wheat has slumped for 6 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio looks like it’s about to change direction in trend.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 5 week losing streak.

The Aussie fell except against the INR, JPY and USD.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie rose.

Euro as stronger, reversing last weeks weakness.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cocoa 10.2%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 3.4%, Lithium Carbonate 1.9%, Tin 3.4%, Orange Juice 12%, Palladium 2.7%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 2%, Uranium 2.6%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 6.1%, Gold rose between 1.5% – 2.4% across various currencies, All Word Developed ex USA 1%, KBW Banks 3.6%, DJ Transports 1.9%, BOVESPA 2.2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.2%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, KOSPI 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, PSE 1.5%, PX 1.7%, S&P 600 2%, TA35 3.6%, Nasdaq Transports 2.3%, WIG 3.5%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.8% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.7%), Brent Crude (4.1%), Baltic Dry Index (19.1%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Palm Oil (3.2%), Copper (1.9%), Heating Oil (7%), JKM LNG (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.8%), Newcastle Coal (2.4%), Natural Gas (22.2%), Nickel (2.5%), Gasoline (4.5%), Robusta (4%), S&P GSCI (3.4%), CRB Index (2.5%), Gasoil (6.9%), Oats (7.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), HSCEI (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.9%), SET (1.5%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (0.6%) and Vietnam fell 5.4%.

December 14, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 5, 2025)

December 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Norwegian 10 year bond yields

Euro 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF

AUD/EUR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Transports

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY

CNH/USD

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Japanese government bond yield curve *

Swedish 10 year government bond yields

Baltic Dry Index *

Tin

MYR/USD*

USD/INR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield

CHF/AUD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bonds

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Canadian 10’s soared.

The whole of the Australian and Japanese yield curve is overbought and the Eurozone is nearly so.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 7 weeks,

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year yield spread has fallen for 6 weeks.

Equities moved higher, again.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Brazil’s Bovespa left overbought territory.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF have risen for 4 weeks.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed.

Shipping Rates, Silver Cocoa, Tin, Cattle and Natural Gas were the notable gainers. 

Lithium, Orange Juice, Dutch TTF Gas, Sugar, Soybeans and Coffee dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans fell and broke a 7 week winning streak.

Natural Gas have risen for 7 weeks and has soared 39% over that time.

Cattle & Palm Oil rose enough to leave their oversold extremes.

Richards Bay Coal is close to doing the same.

The Baltic Dry Index and Iron Ore prices have risen for 5 weeks.

The former has soared 34%in those 5 weeks.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel have declined for 4 weeks.

And Wheat and U.S. Gulf Urea prices have slumped for 5 weeks.

Currencies were orderly.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 4 week losing streak.

The Aussie rose, resulting in a few overbought results.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.8%, Aluminium 2.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.2%, Baltic Dry Index 6.5%, Cocoa 3.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2.6%, Copper 3.6%, Heating Oil 2.6%, Cattle 4.3%, Tin 6%, Natural Gas 9%, SOGSCI 1.7%, Silver in USD 3.5%, Silver in AUD 2.1%, ATX 1.4%, BKX 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, EGX 3.7%, IBEX 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.8%, KOSPI 4.4%, Helsinki 1.7%, Stockholm 1.4%, SA40 1.5%, SOX 3.8%, TA35 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.7%, Vietnam 3% and ASX Materials Index rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

JKM (1.9%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), LNG in Yen (5.8%),Lithium Carbonate (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (5%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Orange Juice (6.6%), Platinum (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (5.9%), Sugar (2.7%), Sugar #16 (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (4.3%), Gold in AUD (1.9%), Gold in CAD (1.7%), Gold in ZAR (1.6%), Oats (2.8%), Soybeans (2.9%), IBB (1.5%), WIG (1.7%) and ASX Industrials Index fell 1.6%.

December 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2025)

September 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CNH/USD

MYR/USD

THB/USD

HSCEI Index

IPC Mexico equity index *

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50 *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

USD/SEK *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

NZD/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand

It was a boring week in bonds.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.

Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.

New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.

Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.

The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.

The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.

While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.

Commodities were generally quiet.

Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category. 

Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.

While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.

The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.

JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.

And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.

September 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 5th, 2025)

September 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese, French, British, Greek Norwegian & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

30 year British bond yield 

IEF & IEI

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Italian 2 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR

AUD/CAD

BOVESPA 

IPC Mexico equity index 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in CHF & EUR

Shanghai Composite Index *  

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Israel’s TA 35 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in US and CAD

CSI 300 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian 10 year government bond yield  

U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Australian Coking Coal

Philippines PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

Some overbought entrants this week appeared as so due to intra week highs.

U.S. corporate bond yields are nearing oversold levels.

U.S. 7 year bond yields are close to some mean reversion.

Indonesian 10 year yields rose and broke a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 2 and 3 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 6 week losing streak. 

Indian 10 year yields fell and halted their 8 week climb, 

And June 2019 was the last time the U.S. 5 year real interest rate simultaneously mean reverted and registered an oversold extreme.

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

A couple Chinese indices left overbought extreme territory.

Shanghai, CSI 300, KBW Banks index, ASX 200 and FCATC fell and ended their 4 week winning streak.

The following indices are in 5 week winning streaks; Bovespa, Russell 2000, TSX and the ASX Small Caps.

While the HSCEI and Hang Seng rose.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Gases, Precious Metals and  Rubber were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Coffee, Coal, Lithium, Orange Juice, Sugar, Oats and Wheat dominated the losers category. 

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 5 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Tin and Uranium broke their 4 week winning.

Platinum has risen for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Cattle broke its 10 straight weeks of gains.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Euro and Swissie rose.

The CHF/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie fell.

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer, again.

The U.S. Dollar was slightly weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 5 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 6 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 1.6%, LNG in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 1.7%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold in AUD 3.8%, Gold in USD 4%, Rubber 2.9%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.7%, Gold in GBP 4%, Gold in CAD 4.7%, Gold in ZAR 3.7%, IBB 3.6%, KSE 3.8%, Mexico 3%, NBI 3.6%, SET 2.3%, SMI 1.5%, SOX 1.6%, IGPA 3.3%, IPSA 3.5%, XBI 6.3% and Canada’s TSX rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Brent Crude (2.9%), BDI (2.3%), Cocoa (3.1%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Arabica Coffee (3.2%), Lumber (1.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.6%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Nickel (1.4%), Orange Juice (5.2%), Robusta Coffee (10.5%), Sugar (5%), Tin (2.3%), CRB Index (1.5%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.9%), Oats (3.7%), Rice (2.3%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (2.8%), KBW Bank Index (1.6%), DAX (1.3%), Egypt (2.7%), FCATC (2.7%), BIST (5%) and Italy’s MIB fell 1.4%.

September 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending August 22, 2025)

August 24, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Chinese, British and Dutch 10 year government bond yields  

British 30 year bond yields 

FCATC Index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Indian 10 year government bond yields  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

All World Developed (ex USA) equity index 

Hungary’s BUX Index * 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index * 

Italy’s MIB 

Spain’s IBEX * 

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index * 

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices 

Isreal’s TA35 

Canada’s TSX * 

FTSE 100 

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

The ASX 200 * 

ASX Industrials 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Shanghai Composite Index * 

CSI 300 

China’s A50 equity index

 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Rice 

AUD/SGD 

NZD/USD 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesian 10 year government bond yield  

Lumber * 

CAD/EUR 

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell…… 

with the exception of British, Japanese and Brazilians. 

Turkish 10 year and Chilean 2 year yields rose and broke their 4 week declining streaks.  

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold this week and in a 4 week losing streak. 

Indian 10’s have climbed for 7 weeks. 

Russian 10 year bonds yield rose and broke 13 straight weeks of decline. 

Equities rose nearly everywhere, again. 

This week sees the FTSE 100 and the ASX Industrials join many other overbought indices. 

While Chinese indices register an overbought extreme quinella. 

The Nordic bourse, U.S. midcaps, U.S. banks and Aussie financials all had a good week. 

Czechia’s OX Index fell and ended a 7 week winning streak. 

Bangkok fell and broke its 8 week winning streak. 

Karachi is in a 9 week winning streak. 

Commodities were mainly firmer. 

Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Coffee and Cattle were the notable gainers. 

Coal, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

This week Lithium Hydroxide followed its Carbonate peer leaving oversold territory  

Palladium, Wheat and Hesting Oil rose and broke its 4-week losing streak. 

Robusta Coffee and Cattle prices are in a 9-week winning streak. 

Henry Hub Natural Gas is in a 5-week losing streak.  

And Oats have fallen for 7 weeks. 

Currencies saw some movement. 

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker, again. 

Swissie rose, again. 

The USD was mostly weaker, again. 

The BRL/USD fell to end its 4 straight weeks of gains. 

The Colombina Peso has risen for 4 weeks against the USD. 

The AUD has fallen for 4 weeks against the GBP. 

The Yen and Euro were firmer. 

And the U.S. Dollar fell versus the Indian Rupee to end its 7-week rising streak. 

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.3%, Brent Crude Oil 2.9%, WTI Crude Oil 2.7%, Cattle 3.1%, Heating Oil 3.7%, JKM LNG 5.5%, Arabica Coffee 13.2%, LNG in Yen 2.2%, Gasoline 4.5%, Robusta Coffee 15.8%, S&P GSCI 2%, CRB Index 1.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.2%, Gasoil 3.7%, Uranium 1.7%, Silver in AUD 2.5%, Silver in USD 2.3%, Soybean 1.5%, Shanghai 3.5%, CSI 300 4.2%, AEX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.5%, China A50 4.7%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, DJ Transports 2.8%, Oslo 1.9%, Copenhagen 3.7%, Helsinki 1.9%, Stockholm 1.8%, SMI 1.6%, S&P 500 0.3%, Nasdaq Transports 1.5%, TSX 1.5%, FTSE 100 2%, ASX Financials 3.5%, ASX Industrials 2.5% and BIST rose 4.6%. 

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (3.3%), Baltic Dry Index (4.9%), Cocoa (6%), Natural Gas (7.5%), Orange Juice (2.1%), Oats (2.7%), Rice (8.2%), ATX (1.2%), TAIEX (2.3%), Nasdaq Composite (0.6%), KOSPI (1.8%), Nikkei 225 (1.7%), WIG (1.6%) and the ASX Materials fell 2.4%.

August 24, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 11, 2025)

April 13, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

Turkish 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate

SHY

AUD/ZAR

CAD/USD

JPY/USD

SEK/USD

USD/ZAR

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread

Urea (U.S. Gulf)

Gold in AUD, CAD, GBP and USD

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 5 year bond yield spread 

BofA High Yield Index Effective Yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in ZAR *

CHF/AUD

CHF/USD

EUR/GBP

EUR/USD

USD/IDR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

British 2’s, 3’s & 5’s

Polish 10 year bond yields

Copper/Gold Ratio

Aluminium *

Brent and WTI Crude Oil *

Cotton *

JKM LNG in Yen

Nickel

Platinum

Gasoline

Shanghai Rebar

S&P GSCI

TSI China Iron Ore price

Gasoil

AUD/CAD

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB

CAD/CHF

GBP/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

All World Developed – ex USA

Amsterdam’s AEX

KBW Bank Index

CAC

Indonesia’s IDX

KRE Regional Banks Index

KOSPI

Nikkei 225

Oslo

Helsinki

SENSEX

SMI

S&P 500 

Strait Times

TSX

FTSE 100

ASX 200

ASX Materials

And ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Uranium *

Dow Jones Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Rubber

AUD/EUR

CAD/CHF

USD/DKK

Nasdaq Transports

Biotech ETF’s

S&P Small Cap 600

Russell 2000

Malaysia’s KLSE

FTSE 250

Copenhagen

Stockholm

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly rose.

Intra-week we saw many extremes visited, not many closed near.

Thus, various yield spreads left the list.

European 10’s have fallen for 4 straight weeks while Euro 2’s have done so for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yields moved out of oversold territory for the first time in 9 months.

Austrian and Spanish 10’s broke their 4 week losing streak, 

And the U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread broke it 8 consecutive weeks of gains.

Equities broadly rebounded.

It was a tricky week to report on extremes based on figures at the close of the week, for many extremes were seen intra-week before reversing.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose and departed oversold land.

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks wore the losses this week as did some Western European indices.

The TAIEX and Singapore’s Strait Times Index both fell 8%, which is quite a comparison to the Nasdaq Composite’s 7% gain.

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki have fallen for 5 weeks straight.

Copenhagen is in a 6 week losing streak.

The IBB Biotech ETF have fallen for 7 weeks.

DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX broke their 7 consecutive weeks of decline.

The KRE Regionals Banks Index is nearly oversold.

Commodities were mixed.

Coal, Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Orange Juice, Precious Metals and Grains rose.

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Tin and Sugar were amongst the largest losers.

Australian Coking Coal moved out of oversold territory as did Orange Juice.

The former has risen 5% over the past fortnight.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen or 4 straight weeks while Aluminium broke its 4 week losing streak.

Coffee looks like turning lower.

Gold as priced in ZAR has risen for 5 weeks. 

Gold in AUD is in a 6 week winning streak.

Tin tanked 13%, nearly erasing the past 5 weeks of gains.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 97 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

The star of the show was the U.S. Dollar falling 3%.

Similar to equities, the end of week entrants in this list are only a fraction of the extremes seen intra-week.

The Aussie however rose towards the end of the week yet remains in the doldrums.

The Loonie was mixed and it has risen for 6 straight weeks against the USD.

The CHF/CAD is 16% below its 200 WMA.

The Swiss is strong.

The Kiwi is the highest against the AUD since March 2024.

And the Danish Krone is at a 3 year high vs the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 2.8%, Aluminium 4.1%, Rotterdam Coal 2.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.8%, Cotton 4%, Copper 2.8%, Nickel 2.2%, Orange Juice 23.1%, Platinum 3.3%, Silver in AUD 4.8%, Silver in USD 9.2%, Gold in AUD 2.3%, Gold in CAD 3.9%, Gold in GBP 5%, Gold in USD 6.6%, Gold in ZAR 6.8%, Corn 6.5%, Rice 3.2%, Soybean 6.7%, Wheat 5.1%, KBW Bank Index 4.1%, BUX 2.3%, China A50 2.2%, DJ Industrials 4.9%, DJ Transports 1.9%, Russell 2000 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 7.3%, S&P MidCap 400 2.8%, Nasdaq 100 7.4%, SA40 6.1%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 5.7%, Nasdaq Transportations 2.8%, TSX 1.7%, WIG 2.3% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (14.4%), Brent Crude (2.2%), DXY Index (3%), JKM LNG (2.9%), Arabica (2.9%), Lumber (3.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (14.8%), Lithium Carbonate (1.8%), Tin (19.8%), Natural Gas (8.1%), Gasoline (2.7%), Sugar (4.5%), Sugar #16 (7.1%), TSI Iron Ore (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.1%), Gasoil (2.9%), Shanghai Composite (3.1%), CSI 300 (2.9%), AEX (2.6%), CAC (2.3%), Egypt (2.8%), MIB (1.8%), HSCEI (7.4%), Hang Seng (8.5%), IDX (3.9%), TAEIX (8.3%), KLSE (3.3%), SMI (3.5%) and the Strait Times fell 8.2%.

April 13, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 4, 2025)

April 6, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

IEF, IEI & SHY ETF’s

Sugar #16

EUR/GBP

EUR/USD

NZD/AUD

PHP/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

BofA High Yield Index

Tin

Urea (U.S. Gulf)

Gold in CAD and USD

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

And Chile’s IGPA Indices *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD and ZAR *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

German and Italian 2 year bond yields 

New Zealand & Polish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year break-even inflation rate

TBX

U.S. 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields 

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S.inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year break-even inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation rate

Aluminium 

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

Cotton

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

Iron Ore

Gasoline

S&P GSCI

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

USD/SEK

Amsterdam’s AEX

KBW Bank Index

Dow Jones Industrials

Taiwan’s TAEIX Index *

KRE Regional Banks Index

Nikkei 225

Toronto’s TSX

Vietnam

ASX Materials

And ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the German 10 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

AUD/INR

AUD/USD

CAD/CHF

Indonesia’s IDX 

Nasdaq Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 2 year bond yield 

AUD/CAD

AUD/EUR

AUD/CHF

AUD/SGD

AUD/JPY

AUD/GBP

Dow Jones Transports

S&P Small Cap 600

Russell 2000

FTSE 250

S&P MidCap 400

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Copenhagen

Stockholm

Nasdaq Composite 

Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) Index

S&P 500 

Nasdaq Transports

And the IBB and XBI Biotech ETF’s

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

Any yields which were overbought last week are no longer so.

In this week’s overbought category you’ll find term spreads and high yield bond indices appearing.

The oversold category is full of shorter duration yields, cross country yield spreads and real interest rate spreads.

Austrian and Spanish 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak, 

As are Aussie 2, 3 and 5 year yields along with German 2’d and 5’s.

U.S. 2 year bond yield mean reverted.

The U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread has risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

This includes the whole Japanese curve which tanked this week. Leveraged shorter’s most likely became bankrupt. The widow maker is back.

Equities were decisively weaker, again.

This week features a very longest of equity indices trading at oversold extremes.

There were also many indices which mean reverted.

For the 2nd week in a row, Chinese stocks weathered the storm.

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki have fallen for 4 weeks straight.

Copenhagen is in a 5 week losing streak.

The Nasdaq Biotech have fallen for 6 weeks.

DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX have also declined for 7 consecutive weeks.

The Nasdaq Composite has retreated for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

The S&P 500 has sunken for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

The S&P Small Cap 600, S&P MidCap 400 and the Russell 2000 have fallen 9 of the past 10 weeks.

The KRE Regionals Banks Index is back to the same price seen in July 2024.

Commodities were weaker.

The indices were mainly affected by the slump in oil prices.

Thus we see Crude and Gasoline at oversold extremes.

Some winners included Urea, Tin, Cocoa and Steel prices.

A couple of them made into overbought territory.

Coking Coal prices are working their way from being oversold for some time.

Orange Juice mean reverted.

Tin has risen 19% over the past 5 weeks.

Copper prices tanked.

Australian Coking Coal broke its 4 week losing streak.

Gold as priced in AUD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 96 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were woken from slumber and very active. 

The simplest observation was risk was ‘off’.

That means the Aussie and Loonie were dumped and the Yen and Swiss were bought.

The world does this when its worried and risk averse.

The Australian Dollar fell 4% (or more) against every currency pair.

Perversely, the Loonie has risen for 5 straight weeks against the USD.

Both ‘risk’ currencies (AUD & CAD) rose against the Yen.

And the GBP/JPY broke its 5 week rising streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Cocoa 5.8%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coiled Steel 4.7%, Tin 7.5%, Sugar #16 7.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 6.1%, Urea Middle East 4.1%, Gold in AUD 2.5% and Gold in ZAR rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Richards Bay Coal (3.4%), Aluminium (10.2.%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (5.8%), Baltic Dry Index (7.1%), Brent Crude (9.2%), WTI Crude Oil (10.6%), Cotton (5.3%), Copper (14.2%), Heating Oil (6.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.8%), Lumber (13%), Cattle (3.3%), JKM LNG in Yen (6.7%), Lithium Carbonate (6.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (8%), Natural Gas (5.6%), Nickel (10.2%), Orange Juice (4.4%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (8.2%), Gasoline (8.4%), Robusta Coffee (4.2%), S&P GSCI (6.8%), CRB Index (6%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.8%), Gasoil (8%), Silver in AUD (9.8%), Silver in USD (13.3%), Gold in CAD (2.2%), Gold in CHF (3.8%), Gold in EUR (2.7%), Gold in USD (1.5%), Oats (2.1%), Rice (3.3%), Soybeans (4.5%), All World Developed ex-USA (6.6%), AEX (7.3%), ATX (9.9%), KBW Bank Index (13.8%), BUX (9.2%), CAC (8.1%), ChinaA50 (5.1%), DAX (8.1%), DJ Industrials (7.8%), DJ Transports (9.8%), MIB (10.6%), HSCEI (2.2%), Hang Seng (2.5%), IBEX (6.7%), Bovespa (3.5%), IDX (7.3%), S&P SmallCap 600 (9%),  Russell 2000 (9.6%), Nasdaq Composite (10%), KRE Regional Banks (12.7%), KOSPI (3.6%), FTSE 250 (7.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (9.1%), Mexico (3.2%), Nasdaq Biotech (9.8%), Nasdaq 100 (9.8%), Nikkei 225 (9%), NIFTY (2.6%), Oslo (7.8%), Copenhagen (10.9%), Helsinki (7.4%), Stockholm (10.1%), PX (7.9%), SA40 (8.9%), SENSEX (2.7%), SET (4.3%), SMI (9.3%), SOX (16%), IGPA (2.4%), S&P 500 (9.1%), IPSA (2.5%), STI (3.7%), Nasdaq Transports (9.8%), TSX (6.3%), FTSE 100 (7%), Vietnam (8.1%), WIG (9%), ASX Financials (2.8%), ASX 200 (3.9%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (3.4%), ASX Smal Caps (6.4%), BIST (2.9%) and the XBI Biotech ETF fell 12.7%.

April 6, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 28, 2025)

March 30, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Czech & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Silver in AUD and USD

AUD/IDR

NZD/AUD *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Austria’s ATX *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

Spain’s IBEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

10 year Turkish government bond yield

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Copper *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Taiwan’s TAEIX Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

Nasdaq Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were subdues and mixed.

The Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread has risen for straight weeks.

And Norwegian 10’s are not far away from an all-time high.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Yet it seemed more bearish than it was.

For example the CSI 300, the Dow Jones Transports and the FTSE 100 only closed 0.1% lower from last week’s close.

Germany’s DAX Index and Czechia’s PX Index fell from overbought territory.

Dow Jones Transports, the S&P SmallCaps 600 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, Indonesia’s IDX 30 and the S&P 500 are not oversold this week.

Cairo has risen for 4 straight weeks while Chile’s IGPA and IPSA have risen for the past 5 weeks.

Copenhagen is in a 4 week losing streak.

The Nasdaq Biotech backed and filled a gap and has fallen for 5 weeks.

DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX have fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

The KSE broke a 6 week winning streak.

The KLSE broke its 5 consecutive weeks of decline.

And the ASX Financials have climbed 4.8% over the past fortnight.

Commodities were busy.

Crude, Distillates, Precious Metals, Tin & Nickel rose.

Aluminium, LNG, Coffee, Sugar, Corn, Wheat & Oats were the notable decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio remains overbought.

Cattle drops out from being overbought.

Australian Coking Coal is in a 4 week losing streak.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is nearing the exits from oversold territory.

Gold as priced in AUD, USD and CAD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Cocoa has fallen for 7 of the past 9 weeks although it did break its 5 week losing streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 95 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were mostly uneventful, again.

Often a simmering in FX volatility leads to the same in equities.

The Aussie was quiet and it halted it 4 consecutive week slide against the Euro.

The Canadian Dollar rose slightly, again. 

The Loonie has risen for straight weeks against the USD.

Both ‘risk’ currencies (AUD & CAD) rose against the Yen.

And the GBP/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 3.6%, WTI Crude 1.6%, Cotton 2.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.5%, Natural Gas 1.9%, Nickel 1.9%, Palladium 2.4%, Gasoline 2.1%, Tin 5.7%, Silver in AUD 3.1%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF and GBP rose 1.8%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 3.2%, BUX 1.6%, IDX 4%, BIST 6.8% and the ASX Financials rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.9%), Baltic Dry Index (2.5%), U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel (3.6%), JKM LNG (2.2%), Arabica Coffee (2.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.4%), Orange Juice (14.1%), Robusta Coffee (3.2%), Sugar (3.9%), Sugar #16 (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.5%), Corn (2.4%), Oats (8%), Wheat (5.4%), ATX (2%), KBW Bank Index (1.9%), CAC (1.6%), DAX (1.9%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), TAIEX (2.7%), Nasdaq Composite (2.6%), KRE Regional Banks (1.5%), KOSPI (3.2%), Nadsaq Biotechs (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.5%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (3.3%), PSE (1.9%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (6%), S&P 500 (1.5%), TA35 (1.6%), Nasdaq Transports (1.6%) and the iShare Biotech ETF fell 2.5%.

March 30, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 7, 2025)

March 9, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Austrian, Swiss, Czech, German, Danish, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

German 5 year government bond yields 

IEI

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Lumber

CHF/AUD

CHF/CAD

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD *

PHP/USD

SEK/USD

Vietnam’s equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yields *

Arabica Coffee

Gold in AUD, CAD and ZAR *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index

Spain’s IBEX Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Singapore’s Strait Times

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Japanese 10 year government bond yield

Austria’s ATX *

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

TBX *

U.S. 2 year and 5 year government bond yields

Australian 3 year and 5 year government bond yields 

Canadian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate

Cotton

Lean Hogs

JKM LNG priced in Yen

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/JPY

CAD/CHF

S&P SmallCaps 600 Index

Russell 2000

Nasdaq Composite

S&P MidCap 400

Nasdaq 100

Philadelphia SOX Index *

S&P 500 

And the Nasdaq Transportation Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield spread

Jakarta Composite Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

except for Belgian and Brazil’s bond yields.

Brazilian 10’s aren’t overbought anymore

U.S. 7’s & 10’s broke their 7 week falling streak.

The U.S. 10 year and 5 year real interest rate remains in extreme territory.

Swiss yields rose further following last weeks bullish reversal.

Equities were mixed.

Asian markets were stronger as was Germany and Central Europe.

A bunch of European and Asian indices appear in the overbought category.

U.S. indices were amongst the weakest and dragged many others lower.

This week sees a range of American indices at oversold extremes.

The notable winners and losers for the week are listed at the end of this note.

Italy’s MIB broke its 5 week winning streak.

Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 6 weeks. 

Thailand’s SET has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Vietnam’s main index has risen for 7 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX broke its 10 straight weeks of advance.

The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 have declined for 6 consecutive weeks.

The Hang Seng and the HSCEI were registering overbought quinella prices.

And Switzerland’s SMI has climbed for the past 4 weeks and 10 of the past 11 weeks.

Commodity prices were better than the past couple weeks.

Crude Oil and related products, Cocoa, Urea and Lithium were amongst the losers. i

Coffee, Cattle, Coal, Natural Gas, Nickel, Palladium and Silver were the notable advancers for the week.

The Baltic Dry Index has soared 63% over the past 3 weeks.

Cocoa has fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Gasoline and Rubber are in 4 week losing streaks.

Urea and Richards Bay Coal isn’t overbought anymore

Orange Juice declines further, extends its losing streak to 11 weeks

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has climbed for 6 weeks.

Platinum broke its 4 week losing streak.

Cattle rallied 5% and broke its 5 week losing streak.

Brent Crude and WTI Crude have fallen for 7 straight weeks. 

Tin prices have soared 16% over the past 5 weeks.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 92 consecutive weeks.

Currencies saw much action.

The DXY (USD) Index fell 3.4%.

The Aussie was weaker with a host of pairs at extremes.

The Aussie has fallen for 4 weeks against the British Pound.

The Canadian Dollar was weaker.

The Loonie and the Swiss appear in this weeks list,

As does the Yen.

Risk has been off and we’ve been buying Yen and Swissie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 1.7%, Aluminium 3.9%, Rotterdam Coal 4.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, Baltic Dry Index 13.9%, Lean Hogs 4.4%, Copper 3.6%, Coffee 3%, Cattle 4%, Tin 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 6%, Natural Gas 14.7%, Nickel 6.7%, Palladium 4.8%, Platinum 3.1%, Silver in AUD 2.8%, Silver in USD 4.4%, Gold in USD 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, All Developed World ex USA 2.5%, PSE 3.7%, PX 2.9%, SA40 3.4%, Vietnam 1.6%, WIG 1.8%, BIST 8.8% and Jakarta Composite rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.9%), Brent Crude (3.7%), Cocoa (9.1%), WTI Crude Oil (3.9%), Heating Oil (4.3%), JKM LNG in Yen (14.3%), Lithium Carbonate (4.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Gasoline (5.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.8%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3%), Gasoil (2.8%), Uranium (1.6%), Gold in EUR (2.5%), KBW Banking Index (8.8%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), DJ Transports (2.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3.6%), Russell 2000 (4.1%), TAIEX (2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (3.5%), KLSE (7.1%), KRE Regional Banks (7.1%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.5%), Nasdaq 100 (3.3%), Copenhagen (2.1%), SOX (2.9%), S&P 500 (3.1%), Nasdaq Transports (3.1%), TSX (2.5%), FTSE 100 (1.5%), ASX Financials (4.6%), ASX 200 (2.7%), ASX Industrials (1.8%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.6%.

March 9, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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