Trying to hear what's not being said
February 22, 2024 Leave a comment
Perhaps early but not too late to by #nickel ?
Tuning in to the headline and operational mining pessimism seen amongst Nickel producers (explorers have their own issues)……Nickel prices on the LME are trading at ‘extremes’.
February 23, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 2, 2024 Leave a comment
For the first time in 3 years, (collectively) commodity prices are ‘at their cheapest’ when compared to equities.
Relatively, yes.
But not yet on an absolute basis.
As I warm to commodities (per my writings over the past 2 months), my ‘read of the tape’ says there is reasonable probability of a additional decline.
The chart below shows how the S&P GSCI Index has now reverted back to its 200 week moving average.
This mean reversion doesn’t translate into a ‘buy signal’ but it does tell me that I had no business buying it in the 700-800 point range.
My contrarian predisposition is to prepare for some selected long positions.
January 2, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 4, 2023 Leave a comment
I use this ratio (in blue), being the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index divided by the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (SPGSCI) to help identify when equities are either cheap or expensive relative to commodities.
Readers may piece together that I have bearish on commodities for the past 15 months or so.
I have circled 13 notable periods over the past 30 years when this ratio was overbought on a weekly basis.
Commodities are now entering such a period of being relatively attractive compared to equities.
July, 4, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
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