I’m not buying Oil on the sound of cannons

June 13, 2025 Leave a comment

Why y’all chasing the oil price now?…….It’s too late.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude touched below $55 and $58 respectively, on 2 occasions in April and May 2025.

Today, somebody (hedge funds, oil traders, corporate treasury, speculators) paid $78. The odds (and probability) of being long oil have changed.

Today’s price action is clogged up in Israel’s attack on Iran.

The time for preparedness of entering the long oil trade was around these dates when I wrote about it;

April 4, 2024

“I need to respect the rising probability of $55 on WTI Crude.”

Oil is moving into new territory

April 15, 2025

“It could coincide with #Brent Crude trading down to $58.”

Still waiting for lower oil prices and their proxies

May 8, 2025

“The prices of the 3 stocks mentioned (BP, Woodside and Occidental) recently all touched the prices mentioned in that September 4, 2024 note.”

Oil stocks have fallen, now what?

Let’s wait until next time, for a new moment to buy Oil.

Send me an email if you’re interested in hiring my services.

June 13, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Watch the signals, not the headlines

May 7, 2025 Leave a comment

Today I was giving some presentations in the big smoke.

I was espousing the thesis of “trading the signals, not the headlines”.

Under the category of “when you think you know capital markets”, I used these 2 examples of how perverse things can become…..

but it helps to use the signals and not the headlines and certainly not “the narrative”.

May 7, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Oil is moving into new territory

April 4, 2025 Leave a comment

#Oil has traded to $64, as per

Crude Oil still consolidating

Just broken $61.75, as per

Still waiting and watching Oil prices

and made a new ‘lower low’,

I need to respect the rising probability of $55 on WTI #Crude.

And all of what that means for oil related securities and assets.

April 4, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

n.b. clients will receive more pointed commentary

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Crude Oil still consolidating

February 27, 2025 Leave a comment

WTI Crude Oil is in a 6 week losing streak and it’s just commencing a medium term down trend.

It needs to hold $64.75, otherwise I’ll look for a visit to $62.

February 27, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Pragmatic energy

December 13, 2024 Leave a comment

If there was money to be made by providing renewable #energy, #ExxonMobil would be trying.

Not once, within #XOM‘s 57 page “Plan 2030” document, do the words “solar”, “wind”, “hydropower” or “geothermal” appear.

In fact, ExxonMobil plans to increase oil and gas output by 18% within the next 5 years.

https://investor.exxonmobil.com/news-events/corporate-plan-update

December 13, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Still waiting and watching Oil prices

December 9, 2024 Leave a comment

The setup for the oil price isn’t looking healthy.

A saving grace is that the strength of the current downtrend remains weak.

I’ve been writing about preparing to go long oil and oil related assets or securities….but still not yet.

The link to my note from October 29, 2024 mentions price levels that I am watching.

One thing to watch is whether WTI Crude makes a new ‘lower low’.

Oil falling 33% further makes it interesting

December 9, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Long oil is creeping closer

December 3, 2024 Leave a comment

I’m revising my entry price for SHEL.L higher than the 2170p level suggested in this April 2024 note….to 2390p

Shell – wrong call at wrong time

p.s. I haven’t had an oil related ‘long’ for 3 years but I’m preparing for it.

December 3, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Dearth of rigs operating means…..

November 28, 2024 Leave a comment

Currently, the #oil & #gas industry has the least amount of rigs in operation since February 2016.

(not withstanding the 2020 supply shock)

I have circled those moments in the attached #Brent #Crude price chart.

November 28, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Buy on the sound of cannons

October 22, 2024 Leave a comment

#Israel‘s Tel Aviv 25 equity index has risen 36% since warring began last October.

The circle in the chart below highlights that oversold moment.

The old investment adage of “Buy to the sound of cannons and Sell to the sound of trumpets” comes to mind.

In this weeks edition of Macro Extremes, the Tel Aviv 25 features in the overbought territory.

Hint: could a truce be close?

I also noted that it is registering all-time highs.

Adding to what may seem odd, the price of Crude #Oil has fallen 17% since the start of this particular conflict.

October 22, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#contrarian

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Watching Oil prices

September 19, 2024 Leave a comment

Last week WTI Crude #Oil traded down to $64.04.

I’ve been calling $64 for sometime as its first stop.

What if Oil prices halved?
pondering ‘what if’ lower oil prices

While its downtrend needs to be respected for now, it is not yet exhibiting the required strength to send it lower.

No action for now.

Pause and Watching before I call $46.

September 19, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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