Navigating the Energy Markets: Short-Term Bullish on Henry Hub Natural Gas Amidst Other Energy Downtrends

December 7, 2023 Leave a comment

I think that energy prices are in the latter part of the larger mean reversion that I have been waiting to play out.

While Crude Oil, Gasoline, Diesel and Heating Oil prices look like having more downside and are confirming downward trends, my posture, at this end of the pendulum is being a buyer rather than ‘shorting’.

On a daily trading basis, Henry Hub Natural Gas is my nearest buying candidate.

Following today’s 5% decline (currently trading at $2.57), whether it tickles the $2.47 region is myopic. It has fully retraced the 45% advance which commenced in September 2023 along with ‘backing and filling’ a large gap.

Although, this may be a short-term trade where I scalp some returns, while I keep in mind that $2.10 could be seen if certain trend indicators exhibit strength.

But I am in a broader territory where I’m a longer-term accumulator.

December 7, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , , , , ,

Careful chasing Natural Gas parabola’s

August 24, 2022 Leave a comment

When prices go parabolic and reach extreme levels…..why should we expect a different outcome in Natural Gas prices this time?

The chart below shows you moments when the Henry Hub Natural Gas price has traded at 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly and registered a weekly Overbought reading on its RSI.

Furthermore, I’ve thrown in the percentages Natural Gas had traded above its 200 week moving average.

This tells me that one shouldn’t be chasing a long position in this rarified air.

While it’s a sellers market, not a buyers one….it doesn’t mean, I’m going to ‘short’ it either….

Today, Natural Gas is trading at $9.33.

I’ll look for it to top out around $10.60 or so.

I’ll look for notably lower prices before considering a ‘new long’ position.

August 24, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Nothing natural about the moves in natural gas

October 7, 2021 Leave a comment

Natural Gas prices in Europe have risen 7 fold in the past 7 months.

Bitcoin hasn’t done that……just saying!

#oldschool

On a more serious note, beware of parabolic price moves.

Watch but don’t play.

If you own gas which you can deliver into Rotterdam……sell it.

It’s a sellers market.

This price should halve, quick smart.

October 7, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,