Trying to hear what's not being said
February 27, 2025 Leave a comment
The attached study shows the weekly stock price of Australian mining company, IGO Group and the percentage extremes it has traded either side of its 200 week moving average.
September 4, 2024 Leave a comment
It’s nearly 10 years since Australian Iron Ore and Lithium mining company, Mineral Resources (MIN.AX) last traded this many percentage points below its 200 week moving average.
September 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 6, 2024 Leave a comment
Falling under the category of buying straw hats in winter,
Lithium Hydroxide prices have registered a monthly oversold reading.
August 6, 2024
July 3, 2024 Leave a comment
Another post about #lithium companies;
In early February 2024, I wrote in anticipation of mean reversion for listed Australian lithium company, #Pilbara Minerals,
https://robzdravevski.com/2024/02/07/reminiscing-about-gravity/
Within it I said, “Parabolas are honoured by mean reversion.
As price and mean converges, it still may be a $2.80 stock (+/- 20 cents).”
Thus far, this week’s low is $2.93. Good enough to satisfy that view…..
whether and where it’s a ‘buy’ is the next pondering.
July 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 2, 2024 Leave a comment
For the past quarter, the CME contract for Lithium Hydroxide prices have fallen 20%.
The attached study compares that to a selection of equity prices of companies associated with ‘lithium’.
July 2, 2024
June 21, 2024 Leave a comment
3 years I published a couple posts about IGO Group which is an Australian #lithium and #nickel mining company.
Today, I’m highlighting an extreme seen only 4 times in the past 14 years.
June 21, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#IGOGroup
February 7, 2024 Leave a comment
Lithium companies…..
While lithium is lighter than oxygen, gravity still applies.
Speculators do buy at the wrong time.
Parabolas are honoured by mean reversion.
As price and mean converges, it still may be a $2.80 stock (+/- 20 cents).
On the other hand, the stock prices of some other ‘lithium’ companies are already trading at what feels like ‘maximum pessimism’.
This applies to many other assets which have surge in a vacuum of euphoria.
February 7, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 10, 2023 Leave a comment
The stock price of Bromine and Lithium company, Albemarle (ALB:US) has not been this ‘oversold’ on a ‘weekly’ basis since May 2019.
That’s 4.5 years ago.
The stock price has halved in the past 4 months.
Absent of any fundamental analysis;
over the past 3 months, 180 million of its shares have traded;
and over the past 10 weeks, 125 million of its shares have turned over.
Albemarle has 118 million shares on issue.
More than 100% of the company’s shares outstanding, have traded over those mentioned periods.
This is one possible example of where weaker hands (the un-natural owners?) have passed on their shares to ‘stronger hands’ or perhaps the ‘natural’ owners.
November 10, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 30, 2021 Leave a comment
Lithium is such a hot topic to the point that I’m being asked for my opinion by people while I’m having a morning coffee.
I quickly reply by saying something like, “if you’re suddenly interested in lithium stocks, it probably means everyone should get out”.
Now that I’ve upset my coffee drinking mates (mainly because they’re thin skinned)…….
my quick take on stock price of Pilbara Minerals (PLS:ASX) is a call for it to visit $1.80 around the September 22nd area.
(see the attached weekly chart below)
Where it moves after that will depend on the strength of the decline and other indicators or nuances in the price action.
Note the continual line at the bottom of the chart,
this is its 200 week moving average which is currently floating around 71 cents.
Beyond its valuation fundamentals, a $51m loss at its latest fiscal year report wasn’t surprising to see. While a $175 million revenue in the past year makes it a little difficult to swallow buying shares at $6 billion market cap. A 35 times multiple on revenue is often seen in a technology stock.
Furthermore, buying PLS at $2.20 when its trading at 210% above its 200 week moving average is equally perilous.
This percentage is in the same stratosphere are many high flying assets and securities seen lately around the world, including Bitcoin.
Keep in mind that, that moving average should accelerate higher in the coming 6 months perhaps to the $1.20 mark.
While PLS falling to $1.20 would represent a ~ $3 billion destruction of market capitalisation, it would mathematically represent a digestible mean reversion which would also (ironically) equate to a 62% retracement of the rally which started a year ago.
This last scenario is entirely plausible.
August 30, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 23, 2018 Leave a comment
Lithium darling, Pilbara Minerals (PLS:ASX) looks like heading down to the 80 cents level
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