Macro Extremes (week ending June 27, 2025)

June 29, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium

Uranium

Shanghai Composite

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Platinum * 

KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. (DXY) Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/CHF

CAD/EUR

HKD/USD *

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields generally fell, again, again….

Except for Japanese yields where the 5’s and 10’s broke their 4 week falling streak.

High Yield Corporates are nearing oversold territory.

U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be a maximum bullishness.

Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

The Chinese 10’s have done so for 4 weeks.

U.S. 2 year bond yields are near longer term mean reversion,

While the U.S. 3 year yields already did so.

Equities were had a good week.

Asian indices fared well with the Shanghai Composite registering an overbought reading.

South Korea’s KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 4 week winning streak. 

Norway’s OMX broke its 4 week winning streak.

Indonesias IDX broke its 4 week losing streak.

Thailand’s SET index broke it 6 consecutive weeks of losses.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Oils, Distillates and Gases dominated the losers, along with the Softs.

The Copper/Gold Ratio rose notably which aligned with the ‘rick-on’ appetite seen in equities.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 10% and 24% over the past fortnight.

Gold prices fell and as such Gold Volatility mean reverted.

Tin looks like its set for a higher move as it registers a 4 week winning streak.

Platinum has also risen for 4 week straight, advancing 25% during that time.

Robusta Coffee has sunk for 9 consecutive weeks.

And Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.

Currencies were active.

The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index appearing in oversold territory.

And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme treading this week.

The Aussie was mixed. It was weaker versus the Europeans and stronger in Asia and the USD.

Brazil’s Real is in a 4 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Loonie was mostly weaker with the CAD/EUR in a 4 week losing streak.

The Swissie was stronger and the CHF/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.

EUR/JPY has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

GBP was stronger.

Yen was mixed.

PHP/USD broke its 4 week losing streak

And the USD/INR broke its 4 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Cocoa 9.2%, Cotton 3,9%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 1.7%, Tin 3.3%, Nickel 1.5%, Palladium 9.2%, Platinum 5.8%, Uranium 2.5%, Oats 2.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.8%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks Index 5.6%, DAX 2.9%, Dj Industrials 3.9%, DJ Transports 4.9%, Egypt 9.1%, FCATC Index 4.5%, HSCEI 2.8%, Hang Seng 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3%, TAIEX 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.3%, KLSE 1.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 3.6% FTSE 250 2.7%, Mexico 2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.6%, Nasdaq 100 4.2%, Nikkei 225 4.6%, NIFTY 2.1%, Stockholm 2.4%, SENSEX 2%, SOX 6.4%, S&P 500 3.4%, STI 2.1%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, WIG 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX Materials 1.8%.


For reference, the ASX 200 rose 0.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.6%), Brent Crude (12.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.3%), Baltic Dry Index (10%), DXY Index (1.5%), Palm Oil (2.6%), Heating Oil (10.5%), HRC (2.4%), JKM LNG (7.4%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (13,3%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Natural Gas (6.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Gasoline (10.4%), Robusta Coffee (2.2%), Sugar (1.8%), S&P GSCI (6.1%), CRB Index (4.,1%), Dutch TTF Gas (14.1%), Gasoil (11%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (5.1%), Gold in EUR (4.4%), Gold in GBP (4.7%), Gold in USD (2.8%), Gold in ZAR (4%), Corn (2.8%), Rice (2%), Soybeans (3.4%), Wheat (7.3%), OBX (2.2%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.6%.

June 29, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 13, 2025)

June 15, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Czech 10 year government bond yield * 

Rotterdam Coal

Brent Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

Heating Oil

Palladium

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD

Oats *

KOSPI *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Gold

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

DKK/USD

SEK/USD

And Chile’s IPSA equity index 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

KOSPI *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Sugar #16

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

HKD/USD

And Thailand’s SET equity index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

Indonesian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Aussie 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be at maximum bullishness, so I look for the spread to decline. I see the same in the U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread.

A reminder that U.S. 10’s minus U.S. 5’s recently spent time as an overbought quinella extreme.

Chilean 10’s minus 2’s are nearly overbought.

British 30 year bond yields have fallen for 3 weeks. Whilst its not a meaningful streak, I reminisce about the recent hoopla surrounding the surge in 30 year Gilts.

Danish 10’s broke their 4 week winning streak. 

Japan 2’s broke their 5 week rising streak and Korean 10 year bond yield saw their 6 week climb, come to an end.

And I’m expecting U.S. real interest rates to fall and converge toward a medium term mean.

Equities were mixed with a bias towards weakness.

But not as week as the sentiment may suggest. 

There were many small gainers and losers either side of last week’s close.

For example, the SOX managed to rise 1.5% for the week, even after falling 2.6% on Friday.

South Korea’s KOSPI is overbought.

While the DAX and IBEX fell and are no longer overbought. The latter broke an 8 weeks winning streak.

Norway’s OMX is nearly at an overbought quinella extreme reading.

Thailand’s SET is in a 5 week losing streak and os now oversold.

South African 40 broke its 4 week wining streak.

The All World Developed (ex USA) index is in a 5 week winning streak and has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks, along with Canada’s TSX.

The FTSE 100, ASX Financials, ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps are in 5 week winning streaks and have risen in 8 of the past 9 weeks.

The FTSE 100 has also performed the latter feat.

Commodities were stronger.

The big news is the surge in oil prices. Brent Crude, Heating Oil and WTI Crude have risen 17%, 17% and 19% respectively over the past fortnight.

The Baltic Dry Index has surged 40% over the past 3 weeks and to its highest closing price since last September 2024.

Silver and Gold make a return to overbought extremes.

Palladium joins Platinum being overbought, while Cattle and Steel depart that stratosphere.

The largest winners were Oils and Distillates, most gases, Gold, Platinum, Aluminium and Shipping Rates (again).

The notable losers included Cocoa, Sugar, Nickel, Orange Juice, and surprisingly, Henry Hub Natural Gas.

The Copper/Gold ratio fell to reflect a ‘risk-off’ bias.

During Friday’s trading session, Platinum initially rose 2% on Israeli/Irani tensions to then reverse and fall $100 per ounce (or 7%) to finish down 5% from the previous day’s close.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke its 5 week winning streak and is no longer overbought.

U.S. Gulf Urea broke its 4 week losing streak.
Sugar prices have fallen for the past 5 weeks.

Robusta Coffee is in a 7 week losing streak.

While Rice has risen for 5 straight weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie fell commensurately with the ‘risk-off’ sentiment.

Loonie was mixed, again.

The Swissie was stronger as was the Euro.

The U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index is nearly oversold, after all Trump did ‘want’ a weaker Dollar,

while this week sees a host of oversold USD pairs.

And the BRL/USD is near entering an upward trend.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 2.9%, Rotterdam Coal 1.8%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 20.5%, Brent Crude 11.6%, WTI Crude Oil 13%, Heating Oil 10.7%, JKM LNG 4%, Lumber 3.7%, Platinum 3.8%, Gasoline 7.4%, S&P GSCI 4.3%, CRB Index 3%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.5%, Gasoil 10%, Urea Middle East 2.6%, Gold 3%, TAEIX 1.9%, KOSPI 2.9%, Oslo 2.7% and the SOX rose 1.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.5%), Cocoa (6.2%), HRC (1.8%), Arabica Coffee (2.8%), Cattle (2.9%), Natural Gas (5.4%), Nickel (2.5%), Orange Juice (3.8%), Palladium (1.7%), Sugar (2.2%), Sugar #16 (3.5%), Wheat (2%), ATX (2.1%), KBW Banks (2.6%), CAC (1.5%), DAX (3.2%), DJ Industrials (1.3%), MIB (2.9%), IBEX (2.4%), S&P SmallCaps 600 (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (0.6%), KRE Regional Banks (3.1%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.5%), Stockholm (2.5%), Russell 2000 (1.5%), SMI (1.8%), S&P 500 (0.4%), TA35 (1.5%) and the Nasdaq Transports fell 2.5%.

June 15, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 30, 2025)

June 1, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Platinum *

Oats

MYR/USD *

THB/USD *

KOSPI

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread 

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Tel Aviv 25 Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Robusta Coffee

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly fell.

Finnish, Danish and shorter duration Gilts bucked that trend.

All other remaining bond yields have departed extreme territory except for the Indian 10 year bond yield.

IEF and TLT rose and broke their 4 week losing streaks.

TBT & TBX eased lower and moved out of overbought territory.

Aussie yields spreads along with the U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate are nearly overbought.

Chinese & Korean 10 year bond yields along with Japanese 2’s are in a 4 week rising streak.

Italian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

And the U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields broke their 4 week rising streaks.

Equities were generally firmer.

Although Asian markets were mostly weaker.

So much, that the HSCEI broke its 6 week wining streak and the Hang Seng ended its 7 weeks of advance.

Spain’s IBEX is in a 7 weeks winning streak and remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 7 of the last 8 weeks.

Commodities had a lower bias.

The largest winners were Hogs, Orange Juice, Oats, Rice and Shipping Rates

The notable losers included Copper, Coffee, Precious Metals, Gases, Oils and Distillates.

Platinum is overbought while Gold in AUD and USD dropped out.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 4 week winning streak.

Robusta Coffee has fallen for 5 weeks.

Arabica Coffee has slumped 12% over the past 3 weeks, 

while Orange Juice has soared 32% since its oversold appearance 10 weeks ago.

And Richards Bay Coal retuned to being oversold.

Currencies were mixed.

The Aussie fell.

The Loonie eeked out some small gains as did the USD.

The Euro rose and the EUR/GBP broke 6 weeks of declines.

Sterling was mixed.

The Yen fell,

and the USD/ZAR broke its 7 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 5.8%, Lean Hogs 3.1%, U.S. HRC 2.4%, Orange Juice 4.4%, Oats 6.8%, Rice 2.5%, KBW Banks 1.5%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, Egypt 2.3%, MIB 1.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 1.3%, Russell 2000 1.2%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KOSPI 4.1%, FTSE 250 1.5%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Nikkei 225 2.2%, SOX 1.2%, S&P 500 1.9%, TA35 4.2%, Nasdaq Transports 1.5%, WIG 1.6% and the ASX Financials rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Cotton (1.6%), Copper (3.3%), Heating Oil (3.5%), JKM LNG (2.6%), Arabica Coffee (5.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.7%), Tin (7.9%), Newcastle Coal (2.7%), Natural Gas (6.3%), Nickel (2.5%), Palladium (4.2%), Platinum (3.1%), Gasoline (2.9%), Robusta Coffee (6.9%), S&P GSCI (1.9%), Rubber (1.6%), CRB Index (2.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (6.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.3%), Brent Crude (2.2%), Gasoil (2.1%), Silver in USD (1.5%), Gold in CAD (2%), Gold in CHF and EUR (1.9%), Gold in USD (2.1%), Corn (3.4%), Soybean (1.7%), Wheat (1.6%), China A50 (2.3%), IDX (1.7%), TAIEX (1.4%), KLSE (1.8%), SET (2.3%), IGPA (3.8%), IPSA (4.2%) and BIST fell 3.6%. 

June 1, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 23, 2025)

May 25, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

U.S. 30 year government bond yield

Norwegian 10 year government bond yield

TBT & TBX

Platinum 

MYR/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread 

Gold in AUD and USD

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

USD/SEK

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.

IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.

Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.

Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.

U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought

And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.

The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.

The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.

Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.

Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.

Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.

Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak. 

Currencies were little more active.

The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.

The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.

USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.

The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%

The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.

The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.

And the Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.

May 25, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 25, 2025)

April 27, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/ZAR *

CAD/USD *

JPY/USD

NZD/AUD *

NZD/USD *

PHP/USD *

THB/USD *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf) *

USD/IDR

Czechia’s PX Index

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

EUR/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 3 & 5 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

South Korean 10 year bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

CAD/CHF *

USD/CAD *

USD/MXN *

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Rubber *

USD/SEK *

Dow Jones Transports *

Nasdaq Transports *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 2 year government bond yield

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed.

The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 6 week declining streak.

Notably, Australian 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.

German 10’s have fallen for 6 straight weeks while German 2’s broke 6 weeks of declines.

The latter also reverted to a long term mean.

Chinese 10’s broke 4 week losing streak.

Polish 10 year yields rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.

Equities rose, everywhere.

Equities had a another stellar week.

As a result, this week several equity indices have left the oversold list.

Many indices are in 3 week rising streaks.

For example, the DAX has risen 9% in the past fortnight.

And as mentioned in last week edition, for now, continues to look like April 4th-7th may signal the lows for global equities. 

Commodities were mainly higher, again.

The largest winners were Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Tin, Hogs, Tin and Shipping Rates.

Gold fell (albeit slightly) across various currency pricing.

Gases, Orange Juice, Palladium, Rice and Wheat were counted amongst the few losers.

Natural Gas is in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Baltic Dry Index snapped it 5 straight weeks of decline. 

Sugar broke its 4 week losing streak. 

Gold as priced in ZAR ended its 6 weeks of advance. 

And Gold in AUD 7 week winning streak also came to an end.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 99 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

A few currency pairs have left the list this week.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

The British Pound was stronger again.

The Loonie was mixed.

The Euro is overbought against the USD.

The USD/JPY is at oversold levels.

And the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index barely rose to break its 5 consecutive weeks of decline and it did drag it out of oversold territory.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.4%, Baltic Dry Index 8.8%, Cocoa 13.2%, Cotton 2.5%, Lean Hogs 3.2%, Copper 2.1%, U.S. Midwest HRC 3.4%, Coffee 7.3%, Cattle 2.1%, Tin 4.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Sugar 2.2%, Uranium 2.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Oats 5.2%, Palm Oil 2.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, AEX 2.4%, AEX 3.7%, KBW Banks 5.7%, BUX 6.8%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 4.9%, DJ Industrials 2.5%, Egypt 1.9%, MIB 3.8%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 3.4%, BOVESPA 3.9%, IDX 3.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.7%, Russell 2000 4.1%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.9%, KOSPI 2.5%, FTSE 250 1.9%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.4%, Nikkei 225 2.8%, Stockholm 3%, PSI 2.2%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 4.6%, IPSA & IGPA 2.2%, STI 2.8%, TSX 2.1%, FTSE 100 1.7%, WIG 5.3%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 2.8%, IBB Biotech ETF 4.2% and XBI Biotech ETF rose 5.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

WTI Crude Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (6.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Natural Gas (9.5%), Orange Juice (12.9%), Palladium (2.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9%), Rice (2.1%) and Wheat fell 3.1%.

April 27, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 18, 2025)

April 20, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/IDR

AUD/ZAR *

CAD/USD *

EUR/GBP

NZD.AUD

NZD/USD

PHP/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

EUR/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

Australian 3 and 5 year bond yields

Polish 10 year bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

USD/CAD

USD/MXN

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Shanghai Rebar

Rubber

AUD/EUR

RMB

USD/DKK

USD/SEK

Dow Jones Transports

S&P SmallCap 600

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Transports

IBB Biotech ETF

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 2 year government bond yield

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

CAD/CHF

AUD/CHF

USD/CHF

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell except for those in Japan.

The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Norwegian 10 year yields are in a 5 week declining streak.

Notably, Australian 2, 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.

European 10’s have fallen for 5 straight weeks while Euro 2’s have done so for 6 weeks.

Equities rose, again.

Equities had a good week, except for the American indices.

All of the equity indices which were in last weeks oversold list, are not there anymore.

For now, it looks like April 4th/7th may signal the lows for global equities. 

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki broke their 5 weeks falling streak

Copenhagen broke its 6 week losing streak.

The IBB Biotech ETF broke its 7 weeks of decline.

Commodities were mainly higher.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 3% over the past fortnight.

Many commodities which were oversold last week are no longer so, including uranium.

Cocoa, Coal, Natural Gas, Palm Oil & Tin were counted amongst the few losers.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Sugar has declined for 4 weeks straight.

Gold as priced in ZAR has risen for 6 weeks. 

Gold in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 98 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

The Aussie rose.

The Loonie was weaker against all except the USD.

The British Pound was stronger as was the Kiwi.

The Yen was mixed as the USD/JPY is approaching oversold levels.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Notably, the Swissie is at oversold extremes against some risk currencies.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.4%, Brent Crude 4.6%, WTI Crude 5.2%, Lean Hogs 5%, Copper 4.8%, Heating Oil 4.1%, JKM LNG 4.9%, Arabica Coffee 5.4%, Cattle 3.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 7.3%, Nickel 3.6%, Orange Juice 8.9%, Palladium 6%, Platinum 3.4%, Gasoline 4.9%, S&P GSCI 2.6%, CRB Index 2.1%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.6%, Gasoil 6.2%, Gold in CAD 2.7%, Gold in CHF 3.3%, Gold in EUR 2.7%, Gold in USD 2.8%, Oats 3.1%, All World Developed ex USA 4.1%, AEX 4%, ATX 5.4%, KBW Bank Index 1.9%, BUX 2.5%, CAC 2.6%, DAX 4.1%, FTSE 100 5.7%, Hang Seng 2.3%, IBEX 5.1%, Bovespa 1.5%, IDX 2.9%, KLSE 3.1%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 2.1%, KOSPI 2.1%, FTSE 250 4%, Mexico 3%, Nasdaq Biotechs 1.5%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, NIFTY 4.5%, Oslo 2.8%, Copenhagen 4%, Helsinki 3.7%, PX 3.2%, Russell 2000 1.6%, South Africa40 4%, SENSEX  4.5%, SET 2%, SMI 3.8%, IGPA 4.8%, IPSA 5.2%, STI 5.9%, TA35 3%, TSX 2.6%, FTSE 100 3.9%, WIG 4.4%, ASX Financials 3.2%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASX Materials 3.2%, ASX SmallCaps 2.3% and the XBI Biotech ETF rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Cocoa (1.7%), Newcastle Coal (2%), Natural Gas (8%), Palm Oil (4.2%), Tin (2.1%), Corn (1.6%), Wheat (1.3%), Dow Jones Industrials (2.6%), Nasdaq Composite (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.3%), SOX (4%) and the S&P 500 fell 1.5%.

April 20, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 11, 2025)

April 13, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

Turkish 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate

SHY

AUD/ZAR

CAD/USD

JPY/USD

SEK/USD

USD/ZAR

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread

Urea (U.S. Gulf)

Gold in AUD, CAD, GBP and USD

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 5 year bond yield spread 

BofA High Yield Index Effective Yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in ZAR *

CHF/AUD

CHF/USD

EUR/GBP

EUR/USD

USD/IDR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

British 2’s, 3’s & 5’s

Polish 10 year bond yields

Copper/Gold Ratio

Aluminium *

Brent and WTI Crude Oil *

Cotton *

JKM LNG in Yen

Nickel

Platinum

Gasoline

Shanghai Rebar

S&P GSCI

TSI China Iron Ore price

Gasoil

AUD/CAD

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB

CAD/CHF

GBP/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

All World Developed – ex USA

Amsterdam’s AEX

KBW Bank Index

CAC

Indonesia’s IDX

KRE Regional Banks Index

KOSPI

Nikkei 225

Oslo

Helsinki

SENSEX

SMI

S&P 500 

Strait Times

TSX

FTSE 100

ASX 200

ASX Materials

And ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Uranium *

Dow Jones Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Rubber

AUD/EUR

CAD/CHF

USD/DKK

Nasdaq Transports

Biotech ETF’s

S&P Small Cap 600

Russell 2000

Malaysia’s KLSE

FTSE 250

Copenhagen

Stockholm

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly rose.

Intra-week we saw many extremes visited, not many closed near.

Thus, various yield spreads left the list.

European 10’s have fallen for 4 straight weeks while Euro 2’s have done so for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yields moved out of oversold territory for the first time in 9 months.

Austrian and Spanish 10’s broke their 4 week losing streak, 

And the U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread broke it 8 consecutive weeks of gains.

Equities broadly rebounded.

It was a tricky week to report on extremes based on figures at the close of the week, for many extremes were seen intra-week before reversing.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose and departed oversold land.

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks wore the losses this week as did some Western European indices.

The TAIEX and Singapore’s Strait Times Index both fell 8%, which is quite a comparison to the Nasdaq Composite’s 7% gain.

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki have fallen for 5 weeks straight.

Copenhagen is in a 6 week losing streak.

The IBB Biotech ETF have fallen for 7 weeks.

DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX broke their 7 consecutive weeks of decline.

The KRE Regionals Banks Index is nearly oversold.

Commodities were mixed.

Coal, Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Orange Juice, Precious Metals and Grains rose.

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Tin and Sugar were amongst the largest losers.

Australian Coking Coal moved out of oversold territory as did Orange Juice.

The former has risen 5% over the past fortnight.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen or 4 straight weeks while Aluminium broke its 4 week losing streak.

Coffee looks like turning lower.

Gold as priced in ZAR has risen for 5 weeks. 

Gold in AUD is in a 6 week winning streak.

Tin tanked 13%, nearly erasing the past 5 weeks of gains.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 97 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

The star of the show was the U.S. Dollar falling 3%.

Similar to equities, the end of week entrants in this list are only a fraction of the extremes seen intra-week.

The Aussie however rose towards the end of the week yet remains in the doldrums.

The Loonie was mixed and it has risen for 6 straight weeks against the USD.

The CHF/CAD is 16% below its 200 WMA.

The Swiss is strong.

The Kiwi is the highest against the AUD since March 2024.

And the Danish Krone is at a 3 year high vs the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 2.8%, Aluminium 4.1%, Rotterdam Coal 2.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.8%, Cotton 4%, Copper 2.8%, Nickel 2.2%, Orange Juice 23.1%, Platinum 3.3%, Silver in AUD 4.8%, Silver in USD 9.2%, Gold in AUD 2.3%, Gold in CAD 3.9%, Gold in GBP 5%, Gold in USD 6.6%, Gold in ZAR 6.8%, Corn 6.5%, Rice 3.2%, Soybean 6.7%, Wheat 5.1%, KBW Bank Index 4.1%, BUX 2.3%, China A50 2.2%, DJ Industrials 4.9%, DJ Transports 1.9%, Russell 2000 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 7.3%, S&P MidCap 400 2.8%, Nasdaq 100 7.4%, SA40 6.1%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 5.7%, Nasdaq Transportations 2.8%, TSX 1.7%, WIG 2.3% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (14.4%), Brent Crude (2.2%), DXY Index (3%), JKM LNG (2.9%), Arabica (2.9%), Lumber (3.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (14.8%), Lithium Carbonate (1.8%), Tin (19.8%), Natural Gas (8.1%), Gasoline (2.7%), Sugar (4.5%), Sugar #16 (7.1%), TSI Iron Ore (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.1%), Gasoil (2.9%), Shanghai Composite (3.1%), CSI 300 (2.9%), AEX (2.6%), CAC (2.3%), Egypt (2.8%), MIB (1.8%), HSCEI (7.4%), Hang Seng (8.5%), IDX (3.9%), TAEIX (8.3%), KLSE (3.3%), SMI (3.5%) and the Strait Times fell 8.2%.

April 13, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 4, 2025)

April 6, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

IEF, IEI & SHY ETF’s

Sugar #16

EUR/GBP

EUR/USD

NZD/AUD

PHP/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

BofA High Yield Index

Tin

Urea (U.S. Gulf)

Gold in CAD and USD

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

And Chile’s IGPA Indices *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD and ZAR *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

German and Italian 2 year bond yields 

New Zealand & Polish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year break-even inflation rate

TBX

U.S. 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields 

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S.inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year break-even inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation rate

Aluminium 

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

Cotton

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

Iron Ore

Gasoline

S&P GSCI

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

USD/SEK

Amsterdam’s AEX

KBW Bank Index

Dow Jones Industrials

Taiwan’s TAEIX Index *

KRE Regional Banks Index

Nikkei 225

Toronto’s TSX

Vietnam

ASX Materials

And ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the German 10 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

AUD/INR

AUD/USD

CAD/CHF

Indonesia’s IDX 

Nasdaq Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 2 year bond yield 

AUD/CAD

AUD/EUR

AUD/CHF

AUD/SGD

AUD/JPY

AUD/GBP

Dow Jones Transports

S&P Small Cap 600

Russell 2000

FTSE 250

S&P MidCap 400

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Copenhagen

Stockholm

Nasdaq Composite 

Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) Index

S&P 500 

Nasdaq Transports

And the IBB and XBI Biotech ETF’s

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

Any yields which were overbought last week are no longer so.

In this week’s overbought category you’ll find term spreads and high yield bond indices appearing.

The oversold category is full of shorter duration yields, cross country yield spreads and real interest rate spreads.

Austrian and Spanish 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak, 

As are Aussie 2, 3 and 5 year yields along with German 2’d and 5’s.

U.S. 2 year bond yield mean reverted.

The U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread has risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

This includes the whole Japanese curve which tanked this week. Leveraged shorter’s most likely became bankrupt. The widow maker is back.

Equities were decisively weaker, again.

This week features a very longest of equity indices trading at oversold extremes.

There were also many indices which mean reverted.

For the 2nd week in a row, Chinese stocks weathered the storm.

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki have fallen for 4 weeks straight.

Copenhagen is in a 5 week losing streak.

The Nasdaq Biotech have fallen for 6 weeks.

DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX have also declined for 7 consecutive weeks.

The Nasdaq Composite has retreated for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

The S&P 500 has sunken for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

The S&P Small Cap 600, S&P MidCap 400 and the Russell 2000 have fallen 9 of the past 10 weeks.

The KRE Regionals Banks Index is back to the same price seen in July 2024.

Commodities were weaker.

The indices were mainly affected by the slump in oil prices.

Thus we see Crude and Gasoline at oversold extremes.

Some winners included Urea, Tin, Cocoa and Steel prices.

A couple of them made into overbought territory.

Coking Coal prices are working their way from being oversold for some time.

Orange Juice mean reverted.

Tin has risen 19% over the past 5 weeks.

Copper prices tanked.

Australian Coking Coal broke its 4 week losing streak.

Gold as priced in AUD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 96 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were woken from slumber and very active. 

The simplest observation was risk was ‘off’.

That means the Aussie and Loonie were dumped and the Yen and Swiss were bought.

The world does this when its worried and risk averse.

The Australian Dollar fell 4% (or more) against every currency pair.

Perversely, the Loonie has risen for 5 straight weeks against the USD.

Both ‘risk’ currencies (AUD & CAD) rose against the Yen.

And the GBP/JPY broke its 5 week rising streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Cocoa 5.8%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coiled Steel 4.7%, Tin 7.5%, Sugar #16 7.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 6.1%, Urea Middle East 4.1%, Gold in AUD 2.5% and Gold in ZAR rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Richards Bay Coal (3.4%), Aluminium (10.2.%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (5.8%), Baltic Dry Index (7.1%), Brent Crude (9.2%), WTI Crude Oil (10.6%), Cotton (5.3%), Copper (14.2%), Heating Oil (6.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.8%), Lumber (13%), Cattle (3.3%), JKM LNG in Yen (6.7%), Lithium Carbonate (6.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (8%), Natural Gas (5.6%), Nickel (10.2%), Orange Juice (4.4%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (8.2%), Gasoline (8.4%), Robusta Coffee (4.2%), S&P GSCI (6.8%), CRB Index (6%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.8%), Gasoil (8%), Silver in AUD (9.8%), Silver in USD (13.3%), Gold in CAD (2.2%), Gold in CHF (3.8%), Gold in EUR (2.7%), Gold in USD (1.5%), Oats (2.1%), Rice (3.3%), Soybeans (4.5%), All World Developed ex-USA (6.6%), AEX (7.3%), ATX (9.9%), KBW Bank Index (13.8%), BUX (9.2%), CAC (8.1%), ChinaA50 (5.1%), DAX (8.1%), DJ Industrials (7.8%), DJ Transports (9.8%), MIB (10.6%), HSCEI (2.2%), Hang Seng (2.5%), IBEX (6.7%), Bovespa (3.5%), IDX (7.3%), S&P SmallCap 600 (9%),  Russell 2000 (9.6%), Nasdaq Composite (10%), KRE Regional Banks (12.7%), KOSPI (3.6%), FTSE 250 (7.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (9.1%), Mexico (3.2%), Nasdaq Biotech (9.8%), Nasdaq 100 (9.8%), Nikkei 225 (9%), NIFTY (2.6%), Oslo (7.8%), Copenhagen (10.9%), Helsinki (7.4%), Stockholm (10.1%), PX (7.9%), SA40 (8.9%), SENSEX (2.7%), SET (4.3%), SMI (9.3%), SOX (16%), IGPA (2.4%), S&P 500 (9.1%), IPSA (2.5%), STI (3.7%), Nasdaq Transports (9.8%), TSX (6.3%), FTSE 100 (7%), Vietnam (8.1%), WIG (9%), ASX Financials (2.8%), ASX 200 (3.9%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (3.4%), ASX Smal Caps (6.4%), BIST (2.9%) and the XBI Biotech ETF fell 12.7%.

April 6, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 28, 2025)

March 30, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Czech & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Silver in AUD and USD

AUD/IDR

NZD/AUD *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Austria’s ATX *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

Spain’s IBEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

10 year Turkish government bond yield

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Copper *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Taiwan’s TAEIX Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

Nasdaq Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were subdues and mixed.

The Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread has risen for straight weeks.

And Norwegian 10’s are not far away from an all-time high.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Yet it seemed more bearish than it was.

For example the CSI 300, the Dow Jones Transports and the FTSE 100 only closed 0.1% lower from last week’s close.

Germany’s DAX Index and Czechia’s PX Index fell from overbought territory.

Dow Jones Transports, the S&P SmallCaps 600 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, Indonesia’s IDX 30 and the S&P 500 are not oversold this week.

Cairo has risen for 4 straight weeks while Chile’s IGPA and IPSA have risen for the past 5 weeks.

Copenhagen is in a 4 week losing streak.

The Nasdaq Biotech backed and filled a gap and has fallen for 5 weeks.

DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX have fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

The KSE broke a 6 week winning streak.

The KLSE broke its 5 consecutive weeks of decline.

And the ASX Financials have climbed 4.8% over the past fortnight.

Commodities were busy.

Crude, Distillates, Precious Metals, Tin & Nickel rose.

Aluminium, LNG, Coffee, Sugar, Corn, Wheat & Oats were the notable decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio remains overbought.

Cattle drops out from being overbought.

Australian Coking Coal is in a 4 week losing streak.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is nearing the exits from oversold territory.

Gold as priced in AUD, USD and CAD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Cocoa has fallen for 7 of the past 9 weeks although it did break its 5 week losing streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 95 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were mostly uneventful, again.

Often a simmering in FX volatility leads to the same in equities.

The Aussie was quiet and it halted it 4 consecutive week slide against the Euro.

The Canadian Dollar rose slightly, again. 

The Loonie has risen for straight weeks against the USD.

Both ‘risk’ currencies (AUD & CAD) rose against the Yen.

And the GBP/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 3.6%, WTI Crude 1.6%, Cotton 2.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.5%, Natural Gas 1.9%, Nickel 1.9%, Palladium 2.4%, Gasoline 2.1%, Tin 5.7%, Silver in AUD 3.1%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF and GBP rose 1.8%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 3.2%, BUX 1.6%, IDX 4%, BIST 6.8% and the ASX Financials rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.9%), Baltic Dry Index (2.5%), U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel (3.6%), JKM LNG (2.2%), Arabica Coffee (2.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.4%), Orange Juice (14.1%), Robusta Coffee (3.2%), Sugar (3.9%), Sugar #16 (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.5%), Corn (2.4%), Oats (8%), Wheat (5.4%), ATX (2%), KBW Bank Index (1.9%), CAC (1.6%), DAX (1.9%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), TAIEX (2.7%), Nasdaq Composite (2.6%), KRE Regional Banks (1.5%), KOSPI (3.2%), Nadsaq Biotechs (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.5%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (3.3%), PSE (1.9%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (6%), S&P 500 (1.5%), TA35 (1.6%), Nasdaq Transports (1.6%) and the iShare Biotech ETF fell 2.5%.

March 30, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 21, 2025)

March 23, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Swiss and Czech 10 year government bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Cattle

EUR/USD

NZD/AUD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Austria’s ATX *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

Spain’s IBEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

10 year Turkish government bind yield

Copper *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

CAD/EUR

SEK/USD

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P SmallCaps 600 Index *

Nasdaq Composite *

Malaysia’s KLSE 

Nasdaq 100 *

And the S&P 500 

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

Indonesia’s IDX 30

And Thailand’s SET Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The few yields that rose were British, Indonesian and Japanese.

Many of last weeks extreme entrants have left, including the high bond yields.

The U.S. 10 year minus German 10 year spread moved out of oversold territory.

And Norwegian 10’s are not far away from an all-time high.

Equities were stronger.

A host of last week’s oversold names no longer appear,

While many of the overbought names are repeat entrants and seem embedded.

Weakness was seen in Chinese, Hong Kong, Swedish and Indonesian markets.

The main Vietnamese index along with some Hong Kong indices left the overbought extremes.

The former broke its 8 week advance.

Thailand’s SET broke its 7 consecutive weeks of losses.

Brazil’s BOVESPA has risen 12% since appearing as oversold in a late December 2024 edition of this weekly publication.

Interestingly, it has climbed 7.6% in the past 3 weeks compared to the 5% decline seen in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over that same time.

The Nasdaq Biotech Index is in a 4 week losing streak.

The Nasdaq Transports and the FTSE 250 have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 8 weeks.

The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000, Amsterdam’s AEX, Philly’s SOX, Nasdaq Transports, the Nasdaq Composite, the ASX Industrials and the ASX 200 all broke their declining streaks ranging between 5 and 7 weeks.

India’s Nifty and Sensex had a good week.

And Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices have climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Commodities while active, were slightly subdued when compared to the rate of change seem in past weeks.

Oil and distillates rose as did Coffee, Sugar and Cattle.

Tin and Silver fell from being overbought.

Aluminium, Cotton, Coal, Platinum and Natural Gas were amongst the largest decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio remains overbought.

Natural Gas prices have fallen 10% over the past fortnight.

Cocoa has fallen for 7 of the past 8 weeks and is in a 5 week losing streak.

Heating Oil and the Baltic Dry Index broke its 4 weeks of declines.

Gasoline and Rubber ended their 5 week losing streaks.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke it 7 consecutive weeks of gains.

Orange Juice snapped its 12 weeks of consecutive losses.

Australian Coking Coal is at its lowest weekly close since November 2021.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 94 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were mostly quiet and uneventful.

Many of the currencies in last weeks list have departed. 

The Aussie fell and has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks against the Euro.

The Loonie rose and did the U.S. Dollar.

The Euro mainly fell.

The British Pound was firmer. 

The GBP/JPY has risen for 4 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude 2.3%, WTI Crude 2%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 3.8%, Cattle 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.5% ,Gasoline 2.2%, Robusta Coffee 2.2%, Sugar 2.8%, Sugar #16 3.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 1.6%, Gold in AUD 2.2%, Gold in EUR 1.9%, Oats 3.5%, KBW Bank Index 2.8%, BUX 2.4%, IBEX 2.7%, BOVESPA 2.6%, KSE 2.5%, KOSPI 3%, Nikkei 225 1.7%, NIFTY 4.3%, Oslo 2%, SA40 1.8%, SENSEX 4.2%, Strait Times 2.4%, TSX 1.7%, ASX Financials 2.2%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 2.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (2.7%), Cotton (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (4.7%), Natural Gas (3%), Platinum (3.4%), Tin (2.5%), Silver in USD (2.3%), Rice (1.7%), Shanghai (1.6%), CSI 300 (2.3%), China A50 (3.2%), HSCEI (1.5%), IDX 30 (4.4%) and Stockholm fell 2%.

March 23, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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