What Now? – December 2025 Newsletter

December 18, 2025 Leave a comment

It has been some time since my July 17, 2025 newsletter.
I haven’t had anything new to say.
 
In that edition, along with the June and April 2025 versions, my main message was;

“I don’t (didn’t) see any structural problems in the global equity market”.
 
Those newsletters contained a host of analysis illustrating that the currency and bond markets told me that the “prospects for equities is OK” and we were not experiencing any peaks nor bubbles.

Since and during, I have been accumulating various equities and building portfolios for clients with the focus on “making money in any type of market conditions”.

I also wrote about the opportunities observed in the healthcare and transport industries, along with Chinese equities and commodities such as Palladium.

They have all performed well.

The latter has soared 70% since it was mentioned in my June 20, 2025 newsletter which is notably more than the 27% rise seen in the Gold price, over the same time.

And the markets have been very kind.

 
You may want to read the April 1, 2025 and April 10, 2025 newsletters where I was stating the case for “buying” rather than running and selling.

Since my April 10, 2025 newsletter, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and the S&P 500 have risen 23%, while the ASX 200 climbed 16%. Those returns should temper and place the giddiness of Gold’s advance within perspective.

While the price of various (and many other) stocks have doubled or more.

Those returns were achieved amidst the cited ‘noise’ and ‘concern’.

That’s why its important to ignore the noise or narrative and rely on the data, mathematics and signals.

This reminder remains intact.
 
 
Between April 2025 and now, I have taken profits in selected stocks and started positioning portfolios is a new series of stocks which seem to be unwanted and trading at much cheaper valuations than I’ve seen at any time over the past few years.
 

  • Today, I am discovering many investing ideas across the equity markets.
  • One doesn’t find such a range of opportunities when the market is forming a peak.
  • Inversely, when equity markets are at or near a peak, I can’t usually find anything worthy of investment.

 
Furthermore, there are so many high-quality companies which are attractively priced that investors don’t need to trawl through the gutters of speculation.  
 
My current areas of interest include a range of companies in software, online marketplaces, data and verification providers, brand name chemical companies, cloud accounting and some selected biotech’s.

Coming soon, I anticipate including energy and building materials companies to that list.
 
And I still don’t see any structural problems in the global equity markets.
 
 
Thank you for being a reader of my various opinions and views and I hope you find a nugget of value within them.

Also, thanks to those who forward to and share my newsletter with others.
 
Season’s Greetings to all and wishing you a prosperous and healthy 2026.
 

Until next time,

Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

.
In between newsletters, you can read my varied commentary across a range of markets and asset classes on my blog or Linkedin page.

Feel free to pass this onto your friends and professional associates. They are also welcome to contact me on +61 438 921 403 or send an email to rob@karriasset.com.au


“I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere” – Stanley Druckenmiller

“If you can’t accept volatility in the value of your assets, allow me to introduce you to a bank term deposit” – Me

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Macro Extremes (week ending December 12, 2025)

December 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greece, Indian, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

AUD/CHF *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

THB/USD

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P MidCap 400

Copenhagen’s OMX

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Euro bond yield curve

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver in AUD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX

Brazil’s BOVESPA

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The S&P Biotech ETF *

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Silver in USD *

AUD/INR *

MYR/USD*

USD/INR *

U.S. KBW Bank Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

Lithium Hydroxide *

Dutch TTF Gas *

CHF/AUD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Urea (U.S. gulf)

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for short dated U.S. paper and the British yield curve.

Swiss 10’s soared.

A bunch of new bond yields appear in this weeks list.

The Australian, Euro and Japanese yield curves are overbought.

Kiwi 10 year yields have climbed for 8 weeks,

Whilst Japanese 10 year yield fell slightly, which ends its 7 week rising streak.

Turkish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks, as have U.S. 3 month bills.

And the U.S. 2 year bond is yielding less than the U.S. 3 month bill.

Equities had a slightly higher bias.

More indices joined the overbought extreme list.

While most indices closed either +/- 1% from last week but intra-week there were gyrations.

Brazil’s Bovespa returns overbought territory.

U.S. Regional Bank Index and the Nasdaq Transportation Index have risen for 4 weeks.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.

Chile’s IGPA is in a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Cocoa, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases and Distillates, Oats and Palm Oil dominated the losers category.

Natural Gas tanked 22% and erased half of the 39% gain seen in the previous 7 week winning streak.

The Baltic Dry Index also fell hard, wiping 19% of the 34% seen in the 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Rice is in a 4 week losing streak.

Wheat has slumped for 6 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio looks like it’s about to change direction in trend.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 5 week losing streak.

The Aussie fell except against the INR, JPY and USD.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie rose.

Euro as stronger, reversing last weeks weakness.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cocoa 10.2%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 3.4%, Lithium Carbonate 1.9%, Tin 3.4%, Orange Juice 12%, Palladium 2.7%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 2%, Uranium 2.6%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 6.1%, Gold rose between 1.5% – 2.4% across various currencies, All Word Developed ex USA 1%, KBW Banks 3.6%, DJ Transports 1.9%, BOVESPA 2.2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.2%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, KOSPI 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, PSE 1.5%, PX 1.7%, S&P 600 2%, TA35 3.6%, Nasdaq Transports 2.3%, WIG 3.5%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.8% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.7%), Brent Crude (4.1%), Baltic Dry Index (19.1%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Palm Oil (3.2%), Copper (1.9%), Heating Oil (7%), JKM LNG (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.8%), Newcastle Coal (2.4%), Natural Gas (22.2%), Nickel (2.5%), Gasoline (4.5%), Robusta (4%), S&P GSCI (3.4%), CRB Index (2.5%), Gasoil (6.9%), Oats (7.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), HSCEI (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.9%), SET (1.5%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (0.6%) and Vietnam fell 5.4%.

December 14, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 5, 2025)

December 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Norwegian 10 year bond yields

Euro 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF

AUD/EUR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Transports

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY

CNH/USD

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Japanese government bond yield curve *

Swedish 10 year government bond yields

Baltic Dry Index *

Tin

MYR/USD*

USD/INR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield

CHF/AUD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bonds

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Canadian 10’s soared.

The whole of the Australian and Japanese yield curve is overbought and the Eurozone is nearly so.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 7 weeks,

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year yield spread has fallen for 6 weeks.

Equities moved higher, again.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Brazil’s Bovespa left overbought territory.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF have risen for 4 weeks.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed.

Shipping Rates, Silver Cocoa, Tin, Cattle and Natural Gas were the notable gainers. 

Lithium, Orange Juice, Dutch TTF Gas, Sugar, Soybeans and Coffee dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans fell and broke a 7 week winning streak.

Natural Gas have risen for 7 weeks and has soared 39% over that time.

Cattle & Palm Oil rose enough to leave their oversold extremes.

Richards Bay Coal is close to doing the same.

The Baltic Dry Index and Iron Ore prices have risen for 5 weeks.

The former has soared 34%in those 5 weeks.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel have declined for 4 weeks.

And Wheat and U.S. Gulf Urea prices have slumped for 5 weeks.

Currencies were orderly.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 4 week losing streak.

The Aussie rose, resulting in a few overbought results.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.8%, Aluminium 2.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.2%, Baltic Dry Index 6.5%, Cocoa 3.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2.6%, Copper 3.6%, Heating Oil 2.6%, Cattle 4.3%, Tin 6%, Natural Gas 9%, SOGSCI 1.7%, Silver in USD 3.5%, Silver in AUD 2.1%, ATX 1.4%, BKX 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, EGX 3.7%, IBEX 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.8%, KOSPI 4.4%, Helsinki 1.7%, Stockholm 1.4%, SA40 1.5%, SOX 3.8%, TA35 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.7%, Vietnam 3% and ASX Materials Index rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

JKM (1.9%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), LNG in Yen (5.8%),Lithium Carbonate (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (5%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Orange Juice (6.6%), Platinum (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (5.9%), Sugar (2.7%), Sugar #16 (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (4.3%), Gold in AUD (1.9%), Gold in CAD (1.7%), Gold in ZAR (1.6%), Oats (2.8%), Soybeans (2.9%), IBB (1.5%), WIG (1.7%) and ASX Industrials Index fell 1.6%.

December 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

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Macro Extremes (week ending November 28, 2025)

November 30, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Baltic Dry Index

Tin

CAD/JPY *

CLP/USD

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 year government bond yield

Platinum

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Brazil’s Bovespa equity index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Korean and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

British 2 and 3 year bind yields

Polish 10 year government bond yield

Palm Oil

Cattle *

Dutch TTF Gas

And the ASX 200 equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose….

Except for those found in France, Spain and Great Britain.

The Australain 2 year bond yield is nearly overbought.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 6 weeks,

While Czech 10 year yields fell and broke their 5 week advance.

Equities had a terrific week.

Bounces were seen everywhere.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 7 week winning streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index rose and erased all of last week’s decline.

While the FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their 4 week losing streaks.

Commodities mostly firmed.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, the precious metals, Orange Juice and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Heating Oil, LNG, Rice, Gasoil and Dutch TTF Gas dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans are in a 7 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea along with Wheat prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Natural Gas have risen for 6 weeks and has soared 30% over that time.

Cocoa and Lumber rose and broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice soared 10% and halted a 4 week decline.

Cattle rose and ended its 6 week losing streak.

And Lean Hogs rose 4% and snapped an 8 week slump.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

The Yen’s weakness sees it various pairs in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie rose.

The Euro was mixed.

The USD was lower,

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is approaching oversold levels.

And Bitcoin (in USD) rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richard Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 3.5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, Cocoa 6.7%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.3%, Tin 2.6%, Natural Gas 3.1%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 9.6%, Palladium 5.9%, Plarinum 10.6%, Sugar 2.9%, SPGSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2%, Silver in AUD 11.1%, Silver in USD 12.7%, Gold rose between 2%-4% in various currencies, Corn 2%, Oats 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 1.6%, All World Developed ex USA 3.4%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 4.6%, BKX 4.1%, BUX 2.1%, CAC 1.8%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, FCATC 4.7%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IBB 3.8%, IBEX 3.5%, Bovespa 2.8%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.6%, Russell 2000 5.6%, TAIEX 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.2%, KSE 2.8%, Kospi 1.9%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 4%, Mexico 2.8%, NBI Biotech ETF 3.8%, Nasdaq 100 4.9%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 3%, Helsinki 2.7%, Stockholm 3.3%, PX 2.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 9.7%, IGPA 3%, S&P 500 3.7%, Nasdaq Transports 4.8%, TSX 4.1%, FTSE 100 1.9%, Vietnam 2.2%, WIG 2.7%, XBI 5.6%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5%, ASX Industrials 4.2% and the ASX Small Caps rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Heating Oil (3.8%), JKM LNG (3.3%), LNG in Yen (8%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Sugar #16 (1.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (3.7%) and Rice fell 3.5%.

November 30, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 24, 2025)

October 26, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Aluminium *

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

AEX

FTSE 250

Nifty

Sensex

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME)

Platinum

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Finland’s OMXH

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch & Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

U.S. 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF *

EUR/CHF *

JPY/CAD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Indonesian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate

Richards Bay Coal *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

Sugar

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell except for EU, U.S. and Japanese versions.

European 10’s rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate remains near being oversold even it moved from 2.3% to 2.4% during the week.

Portuguese and U.S, 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks as have U.S. 20’s.

U.S. 30’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

Austrian 10’s rose and broke 5 weeks of decline

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a good week.

We saw Chinese, British, Nasdaq Composite and the 100 return to overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI, Nifty, Sensex and Finland’s OMXH are in a 4 week winning streak.
The biotech indices have risen for 6 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 7 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 9 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Commodities were active, again.

Aluminium, Cocoa, Copper, Oils, Gases and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Lumber, Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Sugar, Rice, Silver and Gold dominated the losers category. 

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) fell and snapped a 9 week winning streak.

Cattle and Palladium fell enough to leave overbought territory.

Crude Oil bounces and easily erased the 5% decline of the previous fortnight.

Sugar registers an oversold quinella.

Oats rose and snapped its 4 weeks of decline.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 8 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list and many currencies reversing last week’s travel.

The Aussie and Loonie rose.

The Swissie as weaker.

Euro firmed.

The Yen fell.

And the Thai Baht rose against the USD to break 5 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 7.6%, Cocoa 7.2%, WTI Crude Oil 7.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 10.2%, Arabica Coffee 1.4%, LNG in Yen 2.3%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.5%, Orange Juice 3.6%, Gasoline 4.9%, Tin 2.7%, S&P GSCI 3.6%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 12.5%, Oats 4.8%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai 2.9%, CSI 300 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 1.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.6%, Cjina A50 3.6%, IDX 4.5%, DAX 1.7%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, FCATC 5.8%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 3.9%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3%, Russell 2000 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 5.1%, FTSE 250 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, Helsinki 5.5%, Stockholm 3.2%, SET 3.1%, SOX 2,9%, S&P 500 1.9%, STI 2.2%, WIG 3.4%, BIST 7.2% and the FTSE 100 rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index 3.8%), Palm Oil (2%), Lumber (7%), Cattle (3.3%), Palladium (2.7%), Sugar 3.4%, Silver in AUD (6.5%), Silver in USD (6.3%), Gold in AUD (3.6%), Gold in CAD (3.4%), Gold in CHF (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (2.5%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Gold in ZAR (5.8%), Rice (3.8%), PSE (1.7%), RUS10 (6.3%), VN Index (2.8%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 2%.

October 26, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

October 19, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Finnish10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index

CHF/AUD

COP/USD

GBP/JPY *

USD/CAD *

USD/KRW *

USD/SGD *

CAC Index

Vietnam’s VN equity index *

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle *

CHF/JPY *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

ASX Materials Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold Volatility Index *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

CHF/CAD

South Korea’s KOSPI *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, British, Greek and Dutch 10 year government bond yields

British 5 year bond yields

Cotton *

Nickel (Indian MCX)

Sugar (+2 month)

AUD/CHF

EUR/CHF

GBP/USD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

CAD/CHF

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield fell and snapped their 5 weeks rise.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is hovering above oversold territory.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate is also near being oversold.

European 10’s, U.S. 30’s and TBT & TBX have fallen for 4 weeks.

Austrian 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

And U.S. BB Corporate High Yield paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a mixed week, with gainers outpacing decliners.

We saw many equity indices leave overbought territory including those from China, France, Israel and Germany.

The S&P Biotech Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 6 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 8 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST have fallen 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 fell and broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance.

While the ASX Small Caps fell and snapped its winning streak at 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Aluminium, Coal, Coffee, Lumber and Precious Metals were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Sugar & Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Palladium and Platinum rejoined the overbought club.

Crude Oil has declined 5% over the past fortnight.

While the front month off Richards Bay Coal is oversold, the forward month contract rose 2.9%, which moved it out of oversold territory and snapping its 11 week losing streak.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 9 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell to its lowest reading since April 2020. Prior to that it was last seen at this level between Nov 2008 – Feb 2009 and matches the reading in February 1990.

Cocoa rose and broke its 8 week losing streak, which also moved it out of overbought territory.

Oats have lost ground for the past 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 7 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 8 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list.

The Aussie was subdued, with a bias for weakness.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie rose and appears in many extremes this week.

The Euro mostly fell.

The British Pound was firmer.

The DXY is back in overbought territory.

And the Thai Baht has fallen for 5 weeks versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.6%, Rotterdam Coal 3.7%, Copper 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, Lumber 3.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Palladium 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%m Gold in AUD 5.5%, Gold in CAD 5.9%, Gold in CHF 5.1%, Gold in EUR 5.6%, Gold in GBP 5.4%, Gold in USD 5.8%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Corn 2.3%, AEX 1.6%, CAC 3.2%, China A50 4.1%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 4%, IBB 2.8%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.9%, Russell 2000 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.9%, Mexico 1.9%, Nasdaq Biotechs 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 1.7%, SENSEX 1.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 600 3%, IGPA 4.9%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, S&P Biotech 2.7% & the ASX Materials index rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Brent Crude Oil (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (2.2%), Palm Oil (1.4%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (1.3%), Tin (3.5%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Orange Juice (10%), Sugar (3.7%), Gasoil (3%), Uranium (2.4%), Shanghai Composite (1.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), IDX (4.1%), DAX (1.7%), FCATC (6.9%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (4%), KRE Regional Banks (1.9%), OBX (1.7%), STI (2.2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2%.

October 19, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Fat part of biotech trade is seen

October 6, 2025 Leave a comment

While specific U.S. biotech’s are held in client portfolios, the broader sector has seen the ‘fat part’ of the trade.

An extreme low in the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) was mentioned in the April 6, 2025 edition of my Macro Extremes weekly note.

Macro Extremes (week ending April 4, 2025)

and an overbought extreme was highlighted in yesterdays edition.

Macro Extremes (week ending October 3, 2025)

For now, ~37% over 6 months will do.

I’ll leave the next 10% for someone else.

October 6, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 26, 2025)

September 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

Italian 2 and 10 year government bond yields

Uranium

Gold in ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

USD/IDR

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Lean Hogs

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

IDX Composite

China’s FCATC *

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nikkei 225

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Mexico’s IPC Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Rice

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Philippines PSE equity index 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were quiet.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Czech 10 year yields and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield have risen for 4 weeks.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

And Swedish, Italian and Korean 10 year yields are in oversold territory.

Equities were mostly lower, again.

The S&P 500 eased slightly, which was enough to leave overbought land.

We see a return of Spain’s IBEX and Japan’s Nikkei 225 to the overbought list.

HSCEI Index and Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index are no longer at overbought extremes.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 5 weeks.

The ASX Industrials have fallen for 5 weeks, while the Dow Jones Transports rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

AEX, KSE, N225, PX and SOX are in 4 week winning streaks.

The TAIEX has risen for 5 weeks.

The DJ Transports rose and broke 4 weeks of loses.

The Russell 2000 fell and broke a 7 week streak of advance.

Canada’s TSX technically broke its 7 week winning streak by falling a mere 0.02%.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 8 weeks.

Commodities were busy and mostly firmer.

Oils, Precious Metals, Lumber, Copper, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Steel, Urea, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

Uranium joins Gold in overbought territory.

Lumber rose and isn’t oversold.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Gasoil has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 6 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 8 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 9 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

There have been some changes in this weeks currency entrants and some streaks are developing and extending.

The Aussie was weaker, again.

The Euro and CHF were firmer.

Swissie/Yen has risen for 6 weeks, but CHF/USD fell and broke its 6 week winning streak.

The Loonie eased.

Yen was weaker and we are seeing JPY/EUR fall for 4 weeks and Yen/USD down for 5 weeks.

The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the South African Rand,

And the Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Brent Crude 5.2%, Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 5.3%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 5.4%, Arabica Coffee 3.2%, Lumber 4.6%, Palladium 12.1%, Platinum 11.2%, Gasoline 4%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Sugar 2.7%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 2%, Gasoil 5.7%, Uranium 5.9%, Silver in AUD 7.7%, Silver in USD 6.9%, Gols in AUD 2.8%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2.4%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Mexico 1.8%, XBI Biotechs 2.5%, ASX Materials 5.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (4.6%), U.S Midwest Hot Coiled Steel (3%), LNG in Yen (2.1%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (2.2%), HSCEI (1.8%), Hang Seng (1.6%), KRE (1.8%), KOSPI (1.7%), NIFTY (2.7%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PSE (3.8%), SENSEX (2.7%), SMI (1.5%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 1.5%.

September 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2025)

September 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CNH/USD

MYR/USD

THB/USD

HSCEI Index

IPC Mexico equity index *

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50 *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

USD/SEK *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

NZD/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand

It was a boring week in bonds.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.

Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.

New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.

Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.

The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.

The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.

While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.

Commodities were generally quiet.

Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category. 

Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.

While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.

The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.

JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.

And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.

September 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

September 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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