Trying to hear what's not being said
May 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I recall ‘gold bugs’ commonly telling us that owning Gold is a hedge against inflation and a weak economy and stock market.
Lately, that story hasn’t been applicable.
Just keep this in mind when the next time that the financial media try to frame it as so.
May 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 14, 2023 Leave a comment
The Nasdaq 100 closed at 16,562.
It is 1% away from a) trading at 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling weekly mean and b) registering a weekly overbought reading.
Incidentally, it has moved from 2.5 standard deviations (SD) below its weekly mean to 2.5 SD’s above, within 8 weeks.
It is also trading at 27% above its 200 week moving average.
(readers of my posts will recognise that pattern).
It is in the midst of a 7 week winning streak.
Also, the Nasdaq 100 is yet to make a new ‘higher high’. That high of 16,765 was seen in November 2021.
Lastly, there are ‘gaps’ below. I’m watching the one at 14,421.
A 12% decline from today’s price would only represent a 38% retracement of this particular advance which commenced in December 2022.
What would be wrong with a 12% for an index which has risen 56% over the past 12 months?
Subjectively, the ‘Magnificent 7’ make up more than 50% of the Nasdaq 100’s market cap and they account for 30% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation.
Many others are welcome to initiate a ‘long position’ at today’s prices on the basis that a ‘break-out’ will provide them with what they are looking for.
December 14, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 28, 2020 Leave a comment
Continuing the series on identifying extremes, the attached “Weekly” chart show the price of Nasdaq Semiconductor Index (SOX) for the past 12 years.
My annotations highlight various times when the index is trading at ‘extreme’ percentage above its 200 day moving average.
If I don’t bang on about mean reversion, at least it shows that the probability of the index extending its move is limited.
This also makes the SOX a plausible security to short (much like the FAANGM stocks) if one is looking to hedge out index (excesses) risk.
October 28, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 28, 2020 Leave a comment
When the price of Gold in Australian Dollars trades at 50% above its weekly 200 moving average……it may be time for Aussie gold producers to hedge.
Similar to my previous work on the USD price,
https://lnkd.in/gK9hj-P
…..the chart below shows the various percentages that the XAUAUD price is relative to its 200 dma.
If you combine the recent surge in the gold price with the historic peaks of the CME gold futures margin requirements, a long term overbought reading in the AUDUSD and my other extremes seen in Gold……
you’re unlikely to lose your job, hedging your gold resource and reserves at these prices.
Incidentally, when the CME hiked margins requirements on August 11th, 2020, the AUD gold price fell and closed at A$2,676.
Today, it’s trading at A$2,636. Much of a muchness, although mean reversion and probability can be unpleasant.
September 28, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 