Trying to hear what's not being said
April 7, 2025 Leave a comment
Anatomy of a trade in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI).
It doesn’t matter to me that this index has fallen 12% today.
I think it has 16% more to fall.
April 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 18, 2025 Leave a comment
It’s often noisiest at the extremes.
For Chinese and Hong Kong markets, the extreme pendulum suggests selling or reducing rather than buying.
February 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 3, 2024 Leave a comment
In the short-term, I think the rally in Chinese equity indices is one to ‘rent’, rather than ‘own’.
And I see particular nuances across the 15% – 20% advance seen in the CSI 300 and the #China A50 to the 30% rise in the HSCEI.
It’s been a constructive effort building a new base, however the current trends are not (yet) all exhibiting strength.
I’m anticipating a near-term moment to scalp some returns. Later, I expect an opportunity to accumulate at lower levels.
In this week’s edition of Macro Extremes, the HSCEI will appear in an Overbought ‘extreme’ category.
Inversely, the study below shows the moments when the CSI 300 (in Macro Extremes) was Oversold.
May 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 3, 2022 Leave a comment
Percentage which the Hang Seng Index is trading below its 200 week moving average.
October 3, 2022
September 28, 2022 Leave a comment
The cratering in stock indices is afoot.
HSI and HSCEI today are doing so.
Opening gains in stocks are being given up as the past 2 days of trading is occurring.
Pessimism is growing amongst a host sentiment and survey indicators.
Really long term mean reversions are occurring or nearing.
Smaller investors seem jittery.
The AUD/USD is plunging. A visit to 0.6320 would be a 3 standard deviation event.
On September 9th, 2022, I wrote;
“I think prices will jump a little, drag in a few more people and then spit them out again in the coming week or three followed up with another swoon.”
And here we are…..
For a bit of sport, I think S&P 500 has a terrible day during Wednesday’s session and the Aussie market will give up its early gains then sink further on Thursday before traders swoop in and start buying 2 hours before Thursday close not before they dump the same stock into Friday’s close before their long weekend on the Australian east coast.
That’s the sort of market we have currently.
September 28, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 15, 2022 Leave a comment
Today, the Hang Seng Index is trading at 19,113 points.
The chart below is on a Monthly basis, not my normal weekly series.
Yes, the index has previously traded to 3 standard deviation below its monthly mean.
and Yes, it has previously touched its 200 Month Moving Average.
But it has never traded this much percentage below its 200 Moving Moving Average.
More importantly, the Hang Seng has never made an Oversold reading on a Monthly basis.
I’ll watch if it holds the 18,278 low seen in February 2016.
Will the Hang Seng Index continue to exist?
Will the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) continue to list the securities of various companies?
If so…..this may be the only piece of analysis required.
March 15, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 