FTSE 100 needs to prove itself, otherwise lower

December 5, 2023 Leave a comment

My previous post summarised my early 2023 reasoning to avoid the FTSE 100. Whilst that index is only 5% lower since then, the way I look at it, is there was little purpose to being actually exposed to the risk.

Today, the price action tells me that the #ftse100 needs to make a higher high’ to break it out of a consolidation funk.

Should it trade below 7,215, then probability of a move to the 7,030 area increases.

That is a further 5% below today’s level.

December 5, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Reviewing my FTSE 100 call

April 18, 2023 Leave a comment

On February 23rd, 2023, I wrote a post titled the “FTSE is full”.

The price of the FTSE 100 was 7,915 on that day.

Within a month, that bourse fell 9% to 7,207.

FTSE-100 is full

Keep in mind that when I review my market calls it is not to resemble any bragging. My posts are meant to be a digital record of my views and I fairly review the good and bad decisions here.

I did think this was quite a prescient call, although it’s not so much whether one sold but it more of a ‘flag’ when not to buy.

Today, the FTSE has risen nicely from that mid March low yet it hasn’t traded above that February 23, 2023 price and its trend isn’t exhibiting the correct traits of strength.

I’m aware that sampling a 2 month window is hardly considered a lengthy period for many investors, but I’ll argue that taking risk and being exposed (with meaningful percentages) to the FTSE 100 over that time wasn’t the best risk adjusted strategy.

April 17, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with

Anticipating a Country Rotation

October 7, 2020 Leave a comment

Last week I wrote about my two best Equity Index ideas.

Buy the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Spain’s IBEX 35.

I wanted to attach some better charts showing the monumental extremes of an index being oversold, not on a daily or weekly terms, but on a Monthly basis.

Because we’re looking at them on a Monthly view, we’re not about to trade out this position next month.

When you’re a buyer of securities at such extremes, you’ve got to give yourself 10% of price movement. After all, in the case of the IBEX, I’m looking for a 45% rise over the next 2-3 years as the index means revert towards its 200 day moving average, which is currently 10,000.

October 7, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Cheaper UK equities coming

June 30, 2020 Leave a comment

I am bullish on UK equities

Today, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index is trading at 6,189 while the

the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar is at 1.2260.

At this moment, I am anticipating lower prices in both.

However, I’m not interested in shorting anything but instead preparing to acquire some favoured UK stocks at cheaper prices.

So, I’m taking excess GBP, converting it to USD and waiting while the UK market becomes cheaper in GBP and USD terms.

Odds are increasing for a pullback to 5885 in the index which is 5% below current levels.

Failing that, I’d then look for a test of 5510.

30 June, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#GBP #FTSE100

This is not personal advice. Seek your own advice.

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,