Macro Extremes (week ending January 23, 2026)

January 25, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 3, 7, 10, 20 & 30 year bond yields

LNG priced in Yen

Natural Gas

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

COP/USD *

RMB

S&P Small Cap 600 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And the S&P 600

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields *

Aluminium (CBOT & LME)

Gold in AUD, GBP & ZAR

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

Shanghai Composite *

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

iShares Biotech Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Copenhagen’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 10 and 30 year bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

Nickel *

Platinum

Uranium

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR and USD

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index

U.S. 600 Mid Caps

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Copper/Gold Ratio

Corn

CHF/AUD

USD/CHF

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

USD/CLP *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose.

Aussie curve near overbought.

AU10-2 spread ner overbought too.

U.S. high yield ‘yields’ are falling.

IEF mean reverted.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year yields have risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yield is close to oversold, for first time since August 2025.

U.S. 3 year bond yield has advanced for 5 weeks, while the 3’s and 5’s mean reverted, upwards.

Equities bias was for lower prices.

We are seeing a growing list of indices registering overbought extremes.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 4 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, FCATC and STI are in 5 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 and the SOX have risen for 6 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 7 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 9 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE and Nasdaq Transports have soared for 11 straight weeks.

Copenhagen and PSE snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

Helsinki and Stockholm fell and broke 5 winning weeks.

And Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

Commodities were mixed but mostly higher, again.

Gases, Oil, Fuels, Shipping Rates, Nickel, Tin, Tin and Precious Metals were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Lumber, Sugar and Oats were the few decliners.

Heating Oil has risen for 4 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 5 week winning streak.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 6 weeks.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price and Orange Juice have risen for 7 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has soared for 8 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 9 weeks.

Newcastle Coal has mean reverted.

Baltic Dry Index rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Cocoa has sunk for 4 weeks but its collapse following its parabolic rise is more impressive.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is also in a 4 week losing streak.

Palladium rose but didn’t make a new high.

Rubber fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

While Natural Gas rose 70% for the week, snapping a 6 week losing streak and easily recovering its 38% loss over that time.

Currencies were busier, but mixed.

Many Aussie (risk-on) and Yen (risk-off) pairs are back in the list.

CAD was weaker.

AUD/EUR has risen for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 6 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 5 weeks.

PHP/USD rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 5 weeks.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 9 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.3%, Brent Crude 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 12.4%, WTI Crude 2.9%, Palm Oil 2.5%, Copper 2%, Heating Oil 5.3%, LNG in Yen 12.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.6%, LME Aluminium 3.1%, Natural Gas 70%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Palladium 11.3%, Platinum 18%, Gasoline 3.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, Tin 18.1%, S&P GSCI 3.8%, CRB Index 3.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.5%, Gasoil 3.2%, Uranium 4.4%, Silver in AUD 11.2%, Silver in USD 14.7%, Gold in AUD 5.2%, Gold in CAD 6.8%, Gold in CHF 5.4%, Gold in EUR 6.4%, Gold in GBP 6.4%, Gold in USD 8.5%, Gold in ZAR 6.3%, Wheat 2.2%, BUX 2.3%, EGX 7.2%, IBB 3.2%, Bovespa 8.5%, TAIEX 1.8%, KSE 2.2%, KOSPI 3.1%, Mexico 1.6%, NBI 3.1%, SA40 1.9%, SET 3%, IGPA 3%, XBI 3.1%, ASX Materials 1.5% and BIST rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (19%), CBOT Cocoa (17%), Lumber (2.4%), Sugar (1.5%), Oats (1.6%), KBW Banks (2%), CAC (1.4%), China A50 (2.3%), DAX (1.6%), MIB (2.1%), NIFTY (2.5%), PSE (2%), PX (1.5%), Sensex (2.4%), SMI (2%), ASX Financials (1.9%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

January 25, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 16, 2026)

January 18, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus Chilean 2 year bond yield spread

Indian 10 year bond yield

S&P GSCI Index

Dutch TTF Gas

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

CSI 300 Index *

DAX Index *

S&P Small Cap 600

FTSE 250 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And Mexico’s IPC Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

The Japanese bond yield curve *

Platinum *

Gold in CAUD, AD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD

ZAR/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Helsinki’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

Philadelphia SOX Index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

LME Aluminium *

Nickel *

Silver in AUD & USD *

Shanghai Composite

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Russell 2000 *

Taiwan’s TAEIX *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Norway’s OBX Index

OMX Copenhagen Index *

OMX Stockholm Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Corn

CAD/AUD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/GBP

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

USD/CLP *

USD/ZAR *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chilean 2 year bond yield

USD/MXN

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased.

Except for Euro, 5’s and 10’s along with Indian and Korean 10’s.

Japanese 10’s have climbed for 5 weeks.

Japanese 5’s have not declined for 12 weeks.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation rates are close to mean reverting while also entering a new upward trend.

U.S. 5 year yields have started a new upward trend.

And the U.S. 5 year bond minus 3 month bill spread is nearly overbought.

Equities had another good week.

We are now seeing many more indices registering overbought quinella’s.

The FCATC, TAIEX, OMXC, PSE, STI and KOSPI are in 4 week winning streaks. The latter has climbed 19% over that time.

The FTSE 250, OMX-H, OMX-S, SMI, SOX and Vietnam’s VN Index have risen for  5 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 6 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA, Austria’s ATX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX have strung together 8 weeks of gains.

The Nasdaq Transports & Pakistan’s KSE have advanced for 10 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. KBW Bank and a biotech index dropped off the overbought list.

Commodities were mostly higher, again.

LNG, Lumber, Tin, Dutch Gas, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Copper, Palladium and Corn were the notable decliners.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 4 week winning streak.

Rubber fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 6 weeks.

Lumber is no longer oversold.

The latter broke its 7 week winning streak.

Nickel snapped a 4 week winning streak.

Orange Juice has advanced for 6 weeks, climbing 50% over that time.

Lithium, Coking Coal, Aluminium and Tin are all registering overbought quinella’s.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 5 weeks.

Rubber has climbed for 6 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 8 weeks.

While Natural Gas has fallen for 6 weeks, declining 38% over that time.

Currencies were quieter.

While the Aussie was firmer (ex ZAR) and the AUD/EUR is in a 4 week winning streak, many of the AUD pairs departed overbought territory.

Other notable changes this week is the Yen is less oversold.

The CAD rose.

The Euro was weaker.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks.

EUR/GBP has declined for 5 weeks.

EUR/USD is entering a new downward trend.

PHP/USD is in a 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 4 weeks.

The NZD/AUD rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 8 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Lean Hogs 3.5%, Heating Oil 4.7%, JKM LNG 11.1%, Lumber 6.5%, LNG in Yen 13.6%, Lithium Carbonate 5.7%, Tin 18.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.2%, Orange Juice 2.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, LME Tin 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 30%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 2.8%, Silver in AUD & USD 12.8%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in CAD 1.,9%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 1.9%, Rice 3.4%, AD02 1.6%, AEX 2.2%, BUX 5%, IDX 1.6%, EGX 3.6%, FCATC 2.5%, HSCEI 1.9%, Hang Seng 2.3%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2.1%, TAIEX 3.7%, KLSE 1.6%, Mexico 1.6%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, OBX 3.2%, OMXH 2%, OMXS 2.2%, PSE 1.8%, SA40 2%, SET 1.7%, SOX 3.8%, STI 2.2%, XFJ 1.9%, XJO 2.1%, XMJ 3.9%, XNJ 1.8%, XSO 2.1% and BIST rose 3.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Cocoa (5%), Copper (1.2%), Natural Gas (2.1%), Palladium (2.6%), Corn (4.7%), KBW Banks (1.7%), China A50 (2.2%), IBB (1.4%) and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%.

January 18, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)

January 4, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *

European 20 and 30 year bond yields

The Japanese bond yield curve

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

MYR/USD *

All World Developed ex USA index

Austria’s ATX Index

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

CNH/USD *

ZAR/USD

Poland’s WIG Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally rose.

U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.

Equities were mixed to mostly higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.

KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also mixed.

Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers. 

Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.

None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.

Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.

Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.

Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mostly weaker.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

CAD was lower.

CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.

EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.

THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.

January 4, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 26, 2025)

December 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Indian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread *

Australian Coking Coal *

Copper

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

ZAR/USD *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year bond yield

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Tin *

Aluminium (LME price) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s Bovespa

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield *

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD

AUD/IDR

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

THB/USD

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased except for Japan’s.

The Australian and Euro yield curve fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.

Brazilian and Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 6 weeks.

The U.S. 10Y minus U.S. 2Y spread eased and is no longer overbought.

While the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly oversold.

We have also seen some reversals.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread rose and broke a 8 weeks losing streak.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.

And U.S 3 month bill yields rose to snap a 5 week losing streak.

Equities traded higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE was climbed higher for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Transports, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 5 week winning streaks.

Italy’s MIB fell for the first time in 4 weeks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index fell and snapped a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were firmer.

Palm Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Coffee and Gold were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates was the sole notable decliner.

Platinum has soared 42% in the past 3 weeks.

Orange Juice has climbed 40% in the past 3 weeks.

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 35% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Cattle fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

The USD version has climbed for 5 weeks.

Newcastle Coal and Gasoil rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Heating Oil mean reverted.

JKM LNG rose and broke 4 weeks of loss.

Arabica coffee looks like changing direction of trend.

Lithium Carbonate is nearing overbought territory.

Uranium has climbed for 5 weeks.

Rice has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

And Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was mixed to firmer.

CAD/JPY an the GBP/JPY have climbed for 7 weeks.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

THB/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 5 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.4%, Cocoa 1.9%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Copper 6%, Arabica Coffee 2.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.4%, Lithium Carbonate 3.9%, Lithium Hydroxide 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.6%, Nickel 6.8%, Orange Juice 2.9%, Palladium 13.2%, Platinum 22.4%, Robusta Coffee 6.2%, Sugar 2.4%, Gasoil 2%, S&P GSCI 1.5%, CRB Index 1.*%, Silver in AUD 16.3%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.9%, Gold in GBP 3.5%, Gold in USD 4.5%, Gold in ZAR 3.8%, Corn 1.4%, Oats 3.4% Wheat 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed 1.5%, KBW Bank Index 1.8%, China A50 1.6%, FCATC 2%, Bovespa 1.5%, TAIEX 3.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 2%, IGPA 1.7%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.5%, XFJ 1.4%, XJO 1.6%, XMJ 3.4% and ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Israel’s TA35 (1.6%).

December 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 19, 2025)

December 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

European 5 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

ZAR/USD

Italy’s MIB Index

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Japanese 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

Aluminium (LME price)

Palladium

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 Index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Platinum

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brent Crude Oil

JKM LNG in Yen

Wheat

AUD/THB

BRL/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus the European 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again, again.

The Australian yield curve has climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks straight.

Kiwi 10 year yields fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread has fallen for 8 weeks.

And Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

Many indices appearing in last week’s overbought list, are no longer so.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Dow Jones Transports, Italy’s MIB, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 4 week winning streaks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

The Nasdaq Transportation Index fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

Chile’s IGPA fell and broke a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Orange Juice, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Uranium, Nickel and Lithium were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Coffee, Gases, Distillates, Soybeans and Cocoa dominated the losers category.

Platinum has soared 30% in the past week.

Orange Juice has climbed 33% in the past fortnight.

Heating Oil has fallen 10% over the last 2 weeks,

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 27% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide is no longer oversold.

Cattle, Tin and Silver (in USD) have risen for 4 weeks.

While Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

Newcastle Coal, Gasoil and Rice has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness continues and is seen in various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP across a 6 week losing streak.

The Aussie mostly fell and as a result, all of last weeks overbought readings are no longer so.

AUD/JPY and MYR/USD have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

CAD/JPY has climbed for 6 weeks.

The British Pound was higher.

The USD firmed enough to move certain pairs out of oversold territory.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.4%, Aluminium 3%, Copper 2.8%, Lithium Carbonate 7.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.1%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel 3.8%, Orange Juice 21.4%, Palladium 15.8%, Platinum 14.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf prices 1.6%, Uranium 3.8%, Silver in AUD 9.2%, Oats 4.2%, Gold in AUD 1.6%, ATX 2.6%, MIB 2.9%, IBEX 1.9%, KLSE 1.7%, FTSE 250 2%, PX 3.3%, SMI 2.2%, FTSE 100 2.6% and Vietnam rose 3.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (8.3%), Cocoa (6.9%), WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Palm Oil (2.9%), Heating Oil (3.3%), JKM LNG (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (7.8%), Natural Gas (3.1%), Gasoline (2.4%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Sugar (1.4%), Gasoil (3.5%), Soybeans (2.4%), EGX (2.6%), FCATC (2.3%), HSCEI (2%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), TAIEX (1.8%), KOSPI (3.5%), Nikkei 225 (2.6%), PSE (1.9%) and the ASX Material Index fell 1.8%.

December 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 24, 2025)

October 26, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Aluminium *

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

AEX

FTSE 250

Nifty

Sensex

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME)

Platinum

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Finland’s OMXH

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch & Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

U.S. 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF *

EUR/CHF *

JPY/CAD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Indonesian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate

Richards Bay Coal *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

Sugar

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell except for EU, U.S. and Japanese versions.

European 10’s rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate remains near being oversold even it moved from 2.3% to 2.4% during the week.

Portuguese and U.S, 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks as have U.S. 20’s.

U.S. 30’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

Austrian 10’s rose and broke 5 weeks of decline

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a good week.

We saw Chinese, British, Nasdaq Composite and the 100 return to overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI, Nifty, Sensex and Finland’s OMXH are in a 4 week winning streak.
The biotech indices have risen for 6 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 7 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 9 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Commodities were active, again.

Aluminium, Cocoa, Copper, Oils, Gases and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Lumber, Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Sugar, Rice, Silver and Gold dominated the losers category. 

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) fell and snapped a 9 week winning streak.

Cattle and Palladium fell enough to leave overbought territory.

Crude Oil bounces and easily erased the 5% decline of the previous fortnight.

Sugar registers an oversold quinella.

Oats rose and snapped its 4 weeks of decline.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 8 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list and many currencies reversing last week’s travel.

The Aussie and Loonie rose.

The Swissie as weaker.

Euro firmed.

The Yen fell.

And the Thai Baht rose against the USD to break 5 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 7.6%, Cocoa 7.2%, WTI Crude Oil 7.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 10.2%, Arabica Coffee 1.4%, LNG in Yen 2.3%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.5%, Orange Juice 3.6%, Gasoline 4.9%, Tin 2.7%, S&P GSCI 3.6%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 12.5%, Oats 4.8%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai 2.9%, CSI 300 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 1.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.6%, Cjina A50 3.6%, IDX 4.5%, DAX 1.7%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, FCATC 5.8%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 3.9%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3%, Russell 2000 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 5.1%, FTSE 250 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, Helsinki 5.5%, Stockholm 3.2%, SET 3.1%, SOX 2,9%, S&P 500 1.9%, STI 2.2%, WIG 3.4%, BIST 7.2% and the FTSE 100 rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index 3.8%), Palm Oil (2%), Lumber (7%), Cattle (3.3%), Palladium (2.7%), Sugar 3.4%, Silver in AUD (6.5%), Silver in USD (6.3%), Gold in AUD (3.6%), Gold in CAD (3.4%), Gold in CHF (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (2.5%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Gold in ZAR (5.8%), Rice (3.8%), PSE (1.7%), RUS10 (6.3%), VN Index (2.8%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 2%.

October 26, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

October 19, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Finnish10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index

CHF/AUD

COP/USD

GBP/JPY *

USD/CAD *

USD/KRW *

USD/SGD *

CAC Index

Vietnam’s VN equity index *

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle *

CHF/JPY *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

ASX Materials Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold Volatility Index *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

CHF/CAD

South Korea’s KOSPI *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, British, Greek and Dutch 10 year government bond yields

British 5 year bond yields

Cotton *

Nickel (Indian MCX)

Sugar (+2 month)

AUD/CHF

EUR/CHF

GBP/USD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

CAD/CHF

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield fell and snapped their 5 weeks rise.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is hovering above oversold territory.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate is also near being oversold.

European 10’s, U.S. 30’s and TBT & TBX have fallen for 4 weeks.

Austrian 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

And U.S. BB Corporate High Yield paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a mixed week, with gainers outpacing decliners.

We saw many equity indices leave overbought territory including those from China, France, Israel and Germany.

The S&P Biotech Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 6 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 8 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST have fallen 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 fell and broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance.

While the ASX Small Caps fell and snapped its winning streak at 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Aluminium, Coal, Coffee, Lumber and Precious Metals were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Sugar & Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Palladium and Platinum rejoined the overbought club.

Crude Oil has declined 5% over the past fortnight.

While the front month off Richards Bay Coal is oversold, the forward month contract rose 2.9%, which moved it out of oversold territory and snapping its 11 week losing streak.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 9 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell to its lowest reading since April 2020. Prior to that it was last seen at this level between Nov 2008 – Feb 2009 and matches the reading in February 1990.

Cocoa rose and broke its 8 week losing streak, which also moved it out of overbought territory.

Oats have lost ground for the past 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 7 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 8 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list.

The Aussie was subdued, with a bias for weakness.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie rose and appears in many extremes this week.

The Euro mostly fell.

The British Pound was firmer.

The DXY is back in overbought territory.

And the Thai Baht has fallen for 5 weeks versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.6%, Rotterdam Coal 3.7%, Copper 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, Lumber 3.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Palladium 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%m Gold in AUD 5.5%, Gold in CAD 5.9%, Gold in CHF 5.1%, Gold in EUR 5.6%, Gold in GBP 5.4%, Gold in USD 5.8%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Corn 2.3%, AEX 1.6%, CAC 3.2%, China A50 4.1%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 4%, IBB 2.8%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.9%, Russell 2000 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.9%, Mexico 1.9%, Nasdaq Biotechs 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 1.7%, SENSEX 1.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 600 3%, IGPA 4.9%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, S&P Biotech 2.7% & the ASX Materials index rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Brent Crude Oil (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (2.2%), Palm Oil (1.4%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (1.3%), Tin (3.5%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Orange Juice (10%), Sugar (3.7%), Gasoil (3%), Uranium (2.4%), Shanghai Composite (1.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), IDX (4.1%), DAX (1.7%), FCATC (6.9%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (4%), KRE Regional Banks (1.9%), OBX (1.7%), STI (2.2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2%.

October 19, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 14, 2025)

March 16, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Austrian, Swiss, Czech, German, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields 

BofA High Yield Index yield

BofA High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spread 

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Copper

Tin

Silver in AUD & USD

JPY/AUD *

Vietnam’s equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, USD and ZAR *

Austria’s ATX *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields

AUD/CHF

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

CAD/CHF

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

CAD/JPY

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

CAD/JPY

USD/SEK

KBW Bank Index

Dow Jones Industrials 

Dow Jones Transports

S&P SmallCaps 600 Index *

Russell 2000 *

Taiwan’s TAEIX 

Malaysia’s KLSE

The FTSE 250

Nasdaq Composite *

S&P MidCap 400 *

Nasdaq 100 *

Nikkei 225

Thailand’s SET *

Philadelphia SOX Index *

S&P 500 

ASX Financials

ASX 200

And the ASX 200

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

And Uranium *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield spread

Nasdaq Transportation Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were subdued.

There was a slight bias higher for longer dated issues while the yield for shorter dated paper tended to ease.

This is evident in some U.S. spreads appearing in this week’s list.

It’s worth noting those yields and spreads which were omitted from this week’s edition.

High Yield bond yields have entered overbought territory.

And Norwegian 10’s are building their way towards an all-time high.

Equities were mostly weaker, again.

This week sees a few more of the world’s indices join the American indices at oversold extremes.

South American, Central European and Chinese bourses were the few to rise during the week.

Some of these are found in this week’s overbought list.

Spain’s IBEX, Switzerland’s SMI and Singapore’s STI departed overbought territory, while Israel’s TA35 and Poland’s WIG rejoin that membership.

During the week, the KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Industrials, Dow Jones Transports, TAIEX and Nikkei 225 ventured into oversold land.

Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 7 weeks. 

Thailand’s SET has fallen for 7 consecutive weeks.

Vietnam’s main index has risen for 8 weeks.

The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 have declined for 7 consecutive weeks.

Switzerland’s SMI broke its 4 week winning streak. 

Amsterdam’s AEX, Philly’s SOX, Nasdaq Transports, the Nasdaq Composite, the ASX Industrials and the ASX 200 are in 4 week losing streaks.

And the S&P SmallCap 600 has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Commodities saw much activity.

Silver, Platinum and Palladium added to last weeks gains.

LNG Gas prices along with Tin and Sugar also had a good week.

Coal, Coffee, Distillates and some Softs languished.

Cotton, Lean Hogs & JKM LNG (as priced in Yen) all rose enough to see them depart the oversold category.

Copper and Tin enter overbought territory, while Lumber & Arabica Coffee makes an exit.

While Gold rose for the week, Copper’s advance was large enough to poke the Copper/Gold Ratio into an overbought extreme.

The Baltic Dry Index has soared 82% over the past 4 weeks. No one is building new ships…..

Cocoa has fallen for 6 of the past 7 weeks and is in a 4 week losing streak.

Heating Oil has also sunk for 4 consecutive weeks.

Gasoline and Rubber are in 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice declines further, extends its losing streak to 12 weeks. That’s an example of quite an extreme.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has climbed for 7 weeks.

Brent Crude and WTI Crude broke 7 straight weeks of decline. 

Tin prices have soared 25% over the past 6 weeks.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 93 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were mostly quiet and uneventful.

Myopically, the Aussie was mixed, with a slight upward bias if I was forced to choose.

The larger picture shows the AUD and CAD exhibiting ‘risk off’ tendencies and correlations.

Inversely, the Swiss and the Yen have been attracting the ‘risk-off’ love.

The Euro firmed.

The Loonie has fallen for 5 straight weeks agains the Euro.

And oddly, the Swedish Krona is soaring against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 19.2%, Cotton 2%, Copper 4%, JKM LNG 2.9%, JKM LNG in Yen 8.4%, Tin 8.9%, Palladium 1.9%, Platinum 4.8%, Gasoline 1.9%, Sugar 4.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.8%, Silver in AUD 3.6%, Silver in USD 3.9%, Gold in AUD 2.3%, Gold in CAD 2.6%, Gold in CHF 3.2%, Gold in EUR 2.2%, Gold in GBP 2.5%, Gold in USD 2.6%, Gold in ZAR 2.2%, CSI 300 1.6%, China A50 4.2%, BOVESPA 3%, PX 1.8%, IGPA 1.7%, IPSA 1.8%, TA35 1.8%, BIST 3.2% and Poland’s WIG rose 3.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (3%), Richards Bay Coal (3%), Cocoa (5.1%), North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2.8%), Heating Oil (2.4%), Coffee (1.9%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Orange Juice (13.1%), Gasoil (1.6%), Corn (2.3%), KBW Bank Index (2.8%), DJ Industrials (3%), DJ Transports (6.2%), IBEX (1.9%), Jakarta Composite (3%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.6%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), TAEIX (2.7%), Nasdaq Composite (2.4%), KLSE (2.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (2.5%), Copenhagen (2.4%), Stockholm (1.7%) S&P 500 (2.3%), STI (2%), Nasdaq Transports (6.7%), ASX Financials (3.1%), ASX 200 (2%), ASX Industrials (2.7%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 1.7%.

March 16, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending November 1, 2024)

November 3, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 2, 3, 5 and 10 year government bond yields

Lumber

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY) *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP USD & ZAR *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)

Lean Hogs

Pakistan’s KSE *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

BRL/USD

Copenhagen

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Colombian Peso vs USD

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields rose, again.

Australian yields have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield has climbed for 7 straight weeks,

as has the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.

U.S. 3 month bills are yielding their lowest since mid-March 2023.

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 3 months.

The U.S. 10 year bond yield has risen for 5 of the past 7 weeks.

And the Aussie yield curve is nearly overbought.

Equities were weaker, again.

The Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Nasdaq Compose broke its 7 week winning streak while also performing a bearish outside reversal.

Mexico’s main index has declined 4.5% over the past fortnight.

The ASX Materials index along with India’s Nifty and Sensex all broke their 4 week losing streak. 

And Oslo’s OBX and Stockholm’s OMX30 both posted a weekly bearish outside reversal.

Commodity prices were weaker.

Energy prices saw weakness with gas prices having a shocker.

Palladium and Silver dropped out from overbought status.

This week, they dropped 8% and 3% respectively.

The Baltic Dry Index and Robusta Coffee have fallen for 5 straight weeks. 

The former has fallen 40% over the past 4 weeks.

Copper broke its 4 week streak of declines, by only a whisker.

Lean Hogs have climbed for 5 weeks.

Cocoa recovered last weeks decline.

Cattle and Platinum both posted a bearish outside reversal week.

Nickel and Sugar have fallen for 4 straight weeks. The former may re-test recent lows.

Robusta Coffee and Rice have sunken for 5 and 6 consecutive weeks, respectively.

Gold was subdues, while Silver was a notable loser.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 23 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 68 consecutive weeks.

Currencies saw the most amount of streaks being extended.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 4 week rising streak.

The Aussie weakened, again, now for the 4th week against many and for 5 weeks specifically versus the USD.

The Yen and Canadian Dollar were weaker.

The Loonie is in a 5 week losing streak against the USD.

I found it interesting that the CAD has risen for 3 weeks vs the AUD.

The Euro rose and the EUR/GBP posted a bullish outside reversal.

The GBP/USD, the JPY/USD, MYR/USD, SGD/USD and NZD/USD have all fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Philippines Peso is in a 6 week losing streak vs USD.

And the GBP has climbed for 4 weeks versus the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 8.4%, Lean Hogs 5.5%, Lumber 5%, Brent Crude 3.8%, Oats 5%, DJ Transports 1.5% and the KRE Regional Bank Index rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.3%), Rotterdam Coal (2.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (3.2%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.2%), Brent Crude Oil (3.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.9%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (14.5%), Nickel (1.6%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (3.3%), Gasoline (3.5%), Robusta Coffee (3%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), CRB Index (1.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.4%), Uranium (3.3%), Silver in AUD (3.1%), Silver in USD (3.8%), Rice (1.8%), CSI 300 (1.7%), AEX (1.7%), Bovespa (1.4%), TAIEX (2.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KOSPI (1.6%), Mexico (2.4%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.6%), Oslo (1.9%), Helsinki (2%), PSI (2.3%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (4.1%), Chile (2.8%), S&P 500 (1.4%) and ASX Financial fell 1.6%.

November 3, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 4th, 2024)

October 6, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Turkish 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate (YoY) spread

Silver in AUD & USD *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/INR *

AUD/USD *

BIST

And Australia’s ASX Small Caps *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Sugar *

Urea (Middle East and U.S. Gulf)

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD & USD *

MYR/USD *

Egypt

Karachi *

Philippines PSE *

And Toronto’s TSX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Gold in CHF, EUR & GBP

Shanghai Composite 

CSI 300 

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

CAD/AUD *

EUR/GBP *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Broadly, many things that were trading at ‘extremes’ last week, are no longer so, this week.

Global government bond yields rose.

Yields across the UK curve are in a 3 week rising streak.

Japanese yields rose strongly, recovering last weeks decline.

Commensurate to bond yields being oversold recently, inversely, this publication listed iShares 1-3 year Bond ETF (SHY) being overbought. It was implying to consider the antithesis of being long bonds. This past week, SHY fell 1%. This gave up 33% of the capital gain seen over the past 6 months. 

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 2 months.

The U.S. 5 year yield minus the 3 month bill spread has climbed for 4 straight weeks.

And various U.S. yield spreads listed last week have broken their 6 week rising streak.

Equities were mainly lower, contrary to any bullish feelings being felt.

The pocket of strength was contained to Chinese and Hong Kong indices.

In fact, the Chinese market was only open on Monday.

The July 2020 – February 2021 period was the last time we saw Chinese A50, CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite register an overbought quinella. 

The Nasdaq Composite has put together a 4 week winning streak.

The Philippines PSE is in a 5 week winning run.

The ASX Financials Index has fallen 6.5% in the past fortnight after being overbought in the week prior.

And Toronto’s TSX makes a return to overbought territory.

Commodities were mixed, although the indices strength due to their weighting to energy contracts.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 8.6% over the past 4 weeks.

Gold across various currencies remains overbought as does Silver.

Urea is a new overbought entrant.

Coffee isn’t overbought anymore.

Cocoa and Shipping Rates took a shellacking.
While Coking Coal prices bounced out from oversold territory.

Sugar, Tin, Nickel and CRB Index are in 4 week winning streaks, while Natural Gas its.

Shanghai Rebar prices have soared 15% over the past 2 weeks.

Soybeans broke its 6 consecutive weeks of positive closes.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 19 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 64 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies action was dominated by U.S. strength.

The DXY Index broke its 4 week losing streak and rose 2%.

Hence I had a confusing read of currencies during the week.

Risk-off was seen in equities but the AUD and CAD rose.

And the Yen fell.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

The AUD has risen for 4 weeks against the Euro.

The GBP was generally weaker.

And the THB/USD is no longer overbought as the Thai Baht broke its 4 weeks rising trend, falling 3% against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 19.7%, Rotterdam Coal 3.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.8%, WTI Crude Oil 9.1%, DXY Index 2.1%, Lean Hogs 2.4%, Heating Oil 7.5%, Tin 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 2.3%, Nickel 5.7%, Gasoline 8.8%, Shanghai Rebar 12.1%, S&P GSCI 4.6%, CRB Index 2%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.2%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.9%, Brent Crude Oil 8.5%, Gasoil 8.4%, Urea Middle East 5.3%, Silver in AUD 3.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Gold in CHF 1.9%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Corn 1.6%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai Composite 8.1%, CSI 300 8.5%, China A50 16.3%, HSCEI 11.7%, Hang Seng 10.7%, KSE 2.8% and Oslo rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (8.6%), Cocoa (14.6%), Arabica Coffee (4.4%), Lumber (1.9%), Lithium Carbonate (5.6%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.1%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Palladium (2.4%), Platinum (2%), Robusta Coffee (7.6%), Rubber (1.6%), Soybeans (2.6%), All World Developed ex USA (3.5%), Budapest (1.5%), CAC (3.2%), DAX (1.8%), DJ Transports (2.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBEX (2.6%), IDX (2.8%), MOEX (1.9%), TAEIX (2.3%), KLSE (1.8%), KOSPI (3%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), Nikkei 225 (3%), NIFTY (4.5%), Copenhagen (2.3%), SENSEX (4.5%), SMI (1.9%), Vietnam (1.6%), BIST (6.8%) and the ASX Financials fell 2%.

October 6, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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