Macro Extremes (week ending March 7, 2025)

March 9, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Austrian, Swiss, Czech, German, Danish, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

German 5 year government bond yields 

IEI

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Lumber

CHF/AUD

CHF/CAD

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD *

PHP/USD

SEK/USD

Vietnam’s equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yields *

Arabica Coffee

Gold in AUD, CAD and ZAR *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index

Spain’s IBEX Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Singapore’s Strait Times

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Japanese 10 year government bond yield

Austria’s ATX *

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

TBX *

U.S. 2 year and 5 year government bond yields

Australian 3 year and 5 year government bond yields 

Canadian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate

Cotton

Lean Hogs

JKM LNG priced in Yen

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/JPY

CAD/CHF

S&P SmallCaps 600 Index

Russell 2000

Nasdaq Composite

S&P MidCap 400

Nasdaq 100

Philadelphia SOX Index *

S&P 500 

And the Nasdaq Transportation Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield spread

Jakarta Composite Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

except for Belgian and Brazil’s bond yields.

Brazilian 10’s aren’t overbought anymore

U.S. 7’s & 10’s broke their 7 week falling streak.

The U.S. 10 year and 5 year real interest rate remains in extreme territory.

Swiss yields rose further following last weeks bullish reversal.

Equities were mixed.

Asian markets were stronger as was Germany and Central Europe.

A bunch of European and Asian indices appear in the overbought category.

U.S. indices were amongst the weakest and dragged many others lower.

This week sees a range of American indices at oversold extremes.

The notable winners and losers for the week are listed at the end of this note.

Italy’s MIB broke its 5 week winning streak.

Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 6 weeks. 

Thailand’s SET has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Vietnam’s main index has risen for 7 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX broke its 10 straight weeks of advance.

The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 have declined for 6 consecutive weeks.

The Hang Seng and the HSCEI were registering overbought quinella prices.

And Switzerland’s SMI has climbed for the past 4 weeks and 10 of the past 11 weeks.

Commodity prices were better than the past couple weeks.

Crude Oil and related products, Cocoa, Urea and Lithium were amongst the losers. i

Coffee, Cattle, Coal, Natural Gas, Nickel, Palladium and Silver were the notable advancers for the week.

The Baltic Dry Index has soared 63% over the past 3 weeks.

Cocoa has fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Gasoline and Rubber are in 4 week losing streaks.

Urea and Richards Bay Coal isn’t overbought anymore

Orange Juice declines further, extends its losing streak to 11 weeks

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has climbed for 6 weeks.

Platinum broke its 4 week losing streak.

Cattle rallied 5% and broke its 5 week losing streak.

Brent Crude and WTI Crude have fallen for 7 straight weeks. 

Tin prices have soared 16% over the past 5 weeks.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 92 consecutive weeks.

Currencies saw much action.

The DXY (USD) Index fell 3.4%.

The Aussie was weaker with a host of pairs at extremes.

The Aussie has fallen for 4 weeks against the British Pound.

The Canadian Dollar was weaker.

The Loonie and the Swiss appear in this weeks list,

As does the Yen.

Risk has been off and we’ve been buying Yen and Swissie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 1.7%, Aluminium 3.9%, Rotterdam Coal 4.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, Baltic Dry Index 13.9%, Lean Hogs 4.4%, Copper 3.6%, Coffee 3%, Cattle 4%, Tin 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 6%, Natural Gas 14.7%, Nickel 6.7%, Palladium 4.8%, Platinum 3.1%, Silver in AUD 2.8%, Silver in USD 4.4%, Gold in USD 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, All Developed World ex USA 2.5%, PSE 3.7%, PX 2.9%, SA40 3.4%, Vietnam 1.6%, WIG 1.8%, BIST 8.8% and Jakarta Composite rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.9%), Brent Crude (3.7%), Cocoa (9.1%), WTI Crude Oil (3.9%), Heating Oil (4.3%), JKM LNG in Yen (14.3%), Lithium Carbonate (4.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Gasoline (5.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.8%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3%), Gasoil (2.8%), Uranium (1.6%), Gold in EUR (2.5%), KBW Banking Index (8.8%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), DJ Transports (2.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3.6%), Russell 2000 (4.1%), TAIEX (2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (3.5%), KLSE (7.1%), KRE Regional Banks (7.1%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.5%), Nasdaq 100 (3.3%), Copenhagen (2.1%), SOX (2.9%), S&P 500 (3.1%), Nasdaq Transports (3.1%), TSX (2.5%), FTSE 100 (1.5%), ASX Financials (4.6%), ASX 200 (2.7%), ASX Industrials (1.8%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.6%.

March 9, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending February 28, 2025)

March 2, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Swiss 10 year government bond yields *

JPY/AUD

JPY/CAD

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng *

Tin

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

Gold in AUD, CAD and ZAR *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index

And Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Austria’s ATX *

Spain’s IBEX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

TBX

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate

Philadelphia SOX Index

Nikkei 225 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

INR/USD

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Uranium *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Orange Juice *

Jakarta Composite Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell….

except for Belgian, Finland and Brazil’s bond yields.

U.S. 7’s & 10’s have fallen for 7 weeks.

As a result, the IEF bond ETF has risen for 7 weeks.

The U.S. 10 year and 5 year real interest rate entered extreme territory this week.

We saw a large fall and reversal in Swiss yields.

While the Japanese 10 year bond yield has climbed for 8 weeks.

Equities were notably weaker.

Italy’s MIB have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Vietnam’s main index has risen for 6 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX have extended its advance to 10 weeks straight.

Inversely, the S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 have declined for the 5 consecutive weeks.

The Hang Seng and the HSCEI were registering overbought quinella prices early in the week, before they fell and broke their 6 consecutive weeks of advance.

Singapore’s Strait Times, South Africa’s SA40 and Helsinki’s 25 Index snapped their respective 4, 5 and 6 week winning streaks.

While Hungary’s BUX, Poland’s WIG broke their 9 week wining streaks.

The SENSEX and NIFTY are nearing extremes.

And Switzerland’s SMI has climbed for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

Commodity prices had a terrible week, across the board.

Tin, Corn, Wheat, Coffee, Sugar and Palladium were amongst the heaviest decliners. 

Shipping Rates, Lumber, Oasis were the few to rise for the week.

In fact, the Baltic Dry Index has soared 57% over the past 4 weeks, after registering an oversold reading.

Orange Juice tanks further, extends its losing streak to 10 weeks

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has climbed for 5 weeks.

Sugar broke its 5 week winning streak, erasing the past 3 weeks of gains.

Platinum has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Silver in USD broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.

Gold in USD snapped its 8 week winning streak. 

Australian Coking Coal prices rose slightly, snapping its 7 straight weeks of losses.

Cattle is in a 5 week losing streak, while Uranium snapped its 4 weeks of decline.

Brent Crude and WTI Crude have fallen for 6 straight weeks. 

Lean Hogs broke their 4 consecutive weeks of advance,

Wheat slumped and broke its 6 week winning streak.

Tin prices have soared 12% over the past  weeks.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 91 consecutive weeks.

Currencies also saw much action.

The Yen and Swiss rose, confirming the ‘risk-off’ type of week.

The Aussie fell and did the Loonie.

In turn, we see the Yen in overbought territory this week against these ‘risk’ currencies.

The British Pound rose

And the U.S. Dollar rose against everyone.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 25.3%, Lumber 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.9%, Urea, U.S. Gulf price 1.7%, Oats 1.5%, ATX 2.5% and IBEX rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.4%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.8%), Cotton (3.1%), Lean Hogs (4.6%), Heating Oil (2.7%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Arabica Coffee 4.2%, Lithium Hydroxide (1.9%), Tin (7.3%), Newcastle Coal (4.1%), Natural Gas (8.5%), Orange Juice (2.7%), Palladium (9.2%), Platinum (5%), Robusta Coffee (6.6%), Sugar (9.7%), Sugar #16 (4.5%), S&P GSCI (2.8%), CRB Index (3%), Dutch TTF Gas (6.5%), Brent Crude (1.6%), Gasoil (3.7%), Urea Middle East (4.2%), Silver in AUD (1.8%), Silver in USD (4%), Gold in USD (2.7%), Gold in GBP (2.2%), Gold in EUR (1.9%), Gold in CHF (2.1%), Corn (7.5%), Rice (1.6%), Soybeans (3%), Wheat (8%), Shanghai Composite (1.7%), AEX (1.7%), China A50 (1.6%), SOX (7.2%), HSECI (2.9%), Hang Seng (2.3%), BOVESPA (3.4%), Jakarta Composite (7.8%), Russell 2000 (1.5%0, TAIEX (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.5%), KOSPI (4.6%), Mexico (2.6%), Nasdaq Biotech (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (3.4%), Nikkei 225 (4.2%), NIFTY (2.9%), SA40 (3.5%), SENSEX (2.8%), SET (3.4%), TA35 (1.8%), FTSE 100 (1.7%), ASX 200 (1.5%), ASX Materials (5.3%) and the ASX SmallCaps fell 2.5%.

March 2, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending February 7, 2025)

February 9, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Silver in AUD

USD/MXN

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazil 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Dutch TTF Gas

Gold in AUD

Hungary’s BUX Index *

DAX Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Chile’s IGPA Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Chile’s IGPA Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Arabica Coffee *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

Gold as priced in CAD, CHF, EUR & GBP

USD/INR *

Austria’s ATX *

Chile’s IPSA Index *

Spain’s IBEX Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

India’s 10 year government bond yields

Orange Juice 

Rice

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

CAD/JPY

Thailand’s SET Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

INR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

While this week’s list boasts the same overbought entries as last weeks edition, we are seeing more streaks develop.

Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 5 week rising streak.

As are the Japanese 2’s, 5’s and 10’s.

Belgian 10 year bond yields have climbed for 4 weeks. 

Aussie 10’s, Norwegian 10’s and the yields across the British curve are in 4 week losing streaks.

The spread of the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 10 year break-even rate has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

The U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate is nearing an overbought reading. The last time we saw that was March 2022.

And I wanted to make a note that only a few weeks ago, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread was overbought.

Equities mainly rose, while we saw weakness amongst small caps.

The CAC, the DAX and the Helsinki 25 are in 4 week winning streaks.

Poland’s WIG Index has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

Austria’s and Hungary’s main equity index have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Pakistan’s KSE, Switzerland’s SMI and the ASX Industrials Index fell from overbought territory.

The SMI broke its 6 week winning streak.

The SMI climbed 10% over that time.

Chile’s IPSA is in a 5 week rising streak and has risen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

Philippines PSE broke its 4 week losing streak by rising 5%.

Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite is nearing oversold levels.

And the DAX is at an all-time high.

Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.

Arabica Coffee has risen for 5 straight weeks.

Orange Juice tanks further and extends its losing streak to 7 week.

Palladium gave up all of last week’s 6% gain and then some.

The Baltic Dry Index jumped from being oversold. It rose 11%. Prior to this week, it had fallen 59% over the past 2 months.

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose enough to end its 36 week stay in oversold territory.

Copper, Coffee, Tin, Gases, Gold and Wheat gained.

Uranium, Oil, Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium and Cocoa fell.

Copper had a good week leading to a sharp rise in the Copper/Gold Ratio, arguably confirming a ‘risk-on’ environment.

Wheat is in a 5 week winning streak.

Corn has risen for 8 of the past 10 weeks.

Last week Cattle prices were overbought. They are no longer so.

Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 10 consecutive weeks.

Gold in USD has risen for 6 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 7 week winning streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 88 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active.

There is merit comparing the currency entries in last week’s edition and referencing those omitted in the edition.

The AUD mostly rose, reversing recent declines.

The AUD/JPY fell and is nearing oversold levels.

The Yen has been stronger against the USD for 4 weeks. This Yen strength is perhaps signalling an end to ‘risk-off’ sentiment?

The Brazilian Real has risen for 6 straight weeks versus the USD.

The Loonie rose from its recent doldrums and the CAD/USD isn’t oversold this week.

And the Euro was weaker, everywhere, again.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 10.9%, Lean Hogs 3.7%, Copper 7.2%, Heating Oil 1.4%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel 2%, JKM LNG 2%, Arabica Coffee 6.9%, Tin 4.6%, Natural Gas 8.7%, Nickel 3.4%, Gasoline 2.2%, Tin 3.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.9%, Gold in CHF 2.1%, Gold in EUR 2.5%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 2.2%, Wheat 4.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, CSI 300 2%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 5.4%, Hang Seng 4.5%, IBEX 2.6%, ASX Materials 1.7%, WIG 2%, TA35 2.4%, SA40 2.4%, PX 2.4%, PSE 5%, Mexico 3.1% and the KLSE rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Richard Bay Coal (4.2%), Rotterdam Coal (4.8%), Cocoa (8%), Cattle (2.7%), Lithium Carbonate (4.2%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (9.2%), Orange Juice (10.9%), Robusta Coffee (2,8%), Sugar #16 (3.4%), Brent Crude (2.4%), WTI Crude (2.1%), Uranium (2.5%), Indonesia (5.1%), S&P Small Cap Value (1.8%), SET (2.5%), Oslo (2%), KSE (3.4%) and the Nikkei 225 fell 2%.

February 9, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 31, 2025)

February 2, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Cattle *

Corn *

Gold in USD

Spain’s IBEX Index

Sweden’s OMX Stockholm Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index

Poland’s WIG Index

Australia’s ASX 200 Index

And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Arabica Coffee *

Robusta Coffee 

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

Gold as priced in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR.

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Chile’s IGPA Index *

And Australia’s ASX Industrials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Germany’s DAX Index *

Austria’s ATX *

Chile’s IPSA Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Lumber

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Baltic Dry Index

Newcastle Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

AUD/THB *

CAD/USD

INR/USD *

And Philippine’s PSE Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None 

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The only bond yields appearing in this week’s list is the overbought Japanese curve and the oversold Chinese 10’s.

Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 4 week rising streak,

As are the Japanese 2’s and 10’s.

Equities were mixed with an upward bias. 

The CAC, DAX and ASX 200 are in 4 week winning streaks.

The first 2 have risen 9% in those 4 weeks.

Austria’s, Hungary’s and Switzerland’s main equity index have risen for 6 weeks straight.

The SMI climbed 10% over that time.

Chile’s IPSA is also in a 4 week rising streak and has risen for 10 of the past 12 weeks.

The KOSPI broke its 5 week winning streak.

Philippines PSE has fallen for 4 weeks.

The PSE and the Philadelphia SOX Index tanked over 6%.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index broke its 8 consecutive weeks of advance.

Hong Kong and Chinese markets were closed for most of the week.

And the DAX is at an all-time high.

Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.

Arabica Coffee has risen for 4 straight weeks.

Palladium has climbed for 4 of the past 5 weeks.

Orange Juice is in a 6 week losing streak.

Coal, Gases, Wheat, Sugar and Precious Metals gained.

Oil, Cocoa, Aluminium, Oats, Rice and Henry Hub Natural Gas fell.

Corn has risen for 7 of the past 9 weeks and features prominently as an ‘overbought extreme’.

Cattle prices are at their highest since November 2014.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 59% over the past 2 months.

Coal prices remain in oversold territory.

Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 9 consecutive weeks, 

Gold in USD has risen for 5 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 6 week winning streak.

Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 17 weeks.

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke its 4 week losing streak but has spent 36 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 87 consecutive weeks.

Currencies saw some action.

The DXY (USD) Index rose 1%

The AUD fell.

The Brazilian Real has risen for 5 straight weeks versus the USD.

The Loonie is at its lowest since March ’20 and Jan ;16.

The Euro was weaker.

While the Yen rallied.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2.3%, Rotterdam Coal 2.5%, Leans Hog 2.3%, JKM LNG 2.3%, Coffee 8.7%, Lumber 4.7%, Palladium 6.2%, Platinum 7.4%, Robusta Coffee 3.1%, Sugar 1.7%, Sugar #16 4.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 2.8%, Gold in AUD 2.7%, Gold in CAD 2.3%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, Gold in ZAR 2.5%, Wheat 2.9%, AEX 2.3%, IBEX 3.2%, BOVESPA 3%, KRE Regional Banks 1.3%, FTSE 2.1%, NIFTY 2.1%, OBX 1.8%, SA40 2.4%, SENSEX 1.7%, SMI 2.5%, IGPA 2%, FTSE 100 2%, WIG 1.8%, ASX Financials 1.6% and the ASX 200 rose 1.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (2.6%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), Brent Crude Oil (2.5%), Cocoa (5.2%), WTI Crude Oil (2.9%), Cotton (2.6%), Heating Oil (2.1%), Natural Gas (17.2%), Nickel (3.1%), S&P GSCI (1.6%), CRB Index (1.6%), Gasoil (1.5%), Oats (3.5%), Rice (5.7%), DJ Transports (1.8%), Russell 2000 (1%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.1%), PSE (6.9%), SET (2.9%), SOX (6.1%), S&P 500 (1%) and the Tel Aviv 35 fell 2.7%.

February 2, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 17, 2025)

January 19, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Chilean and Japanese 2 year government bond yields

German and Japanese 5 year government bond yields

Austrian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

Cattle

Natural Gas *

Gasoil *

Gasoline 

S&P GSCI Index

CRB Index

Corn *

CAD/GBP

Italy’s MIB Index

Chile’s IGPA Index

And the U.K.’s FTSE 100

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

DXY Index *

Arabica Coffee *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, GBP and EUR

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index

Germany’s DAX Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Urea U.S. Gulf 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields * 

Rotterdam Coal

Raw Sugar

Egypt 30 Index

KLSE

FTSE 250

And Thailand’s SET Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal

Richards Bay Coal

Newcastle Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

RMB/USD *

DKK/USD *

INR/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None 

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The Euro 10 year yield has risen for 6 weeks straight as has the US10/2 yield spread.

Spanish, French, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks. 

The U.S. 5 year bond minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield spread fell from overbought territory.

And the noise surrounding the heights in the British 30 year bond yield, resulted in it declining for the week.

Equities had a terrific week.

All the notable gainers appear in the ‘advancers’ list below.

Only a few Asian indices saw weakness. 

Copenhagen’s OMX25 was the rare decliner in western markets due to Novo Nordisk accounting for 12% of the index weighting.

The past week saw an overbought extreme for Britain’s FTSE 100 juxtaposed against the FTSE 250 registering an oversold extreme.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 7 consecutive weeks and for 16 of the past 18 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 8 straight weeks and for 13 of the past 14.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index broke it for 6 consecutive weeks of decline.

The DAX is at an all-time high.

The BUX, SMI, AEX, FTSE 100, Nasdaq Transports, IBEX and Norways OBX have risen for 4 weeks in a row.

The Nikkei 225 has fallen for the past 3 weeks.

While Chinese and Hong Kong equities recovered last weeks declines.

Commodity prices were mostly higher.

The 3 major commodity indices are overbought.

Aluminium is at its highest weekly close since April 2024.

Gasoline has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Corn has risen for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

While Orange Juice is in a 4 week losing streak.

The few losers for the week included Platinum, Sugar, Lumber, Australian Coking Coal and the Baltic Dry Index.

Coal prices remain in oversold territory.

Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 7 consecutive weeks, while AUD Gold broke its 6 week winning streak.

Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 15 weeks.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 34 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 85 consecutive weeks.

Currencies continue to provide much action.

Compared to last week’s list, many currencies have departed the oversold region.

Although, notably, there are still a few which are oversold compared to the USD.

The DXY (USD) Index remains in overbought territory,

The AUD was stronger except vs the JPY and ZAR 

and the Aussie broke its 6 week losing streak again the USD.

The Euro was mixed 

And the Yen was firmer.

The weakness in the Loonie continued as it touched a 22 year low versus the USD.

Oddly, the Canadian Dollar registered an overbought extreme against the British Pound.

While the Swiss broke its 5 weeks losing streak against the USD, its lowest weekly close since March 2023.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2%, Aluminium 5.4%, Rotterdam Coal 3.3%, Cocoa 5.7%, WTI Crude Oil 2.9%, Heating Oil 3.5%, JKM LNG in ¥ 1.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.1%, Nickel 2.3%, Gasoline 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.2%, CRB Index 1.7%, Gasoil 3.1%, Corn 2.9%, Oats 10.4%, Rice 2.4%, Shanghai Composite 2.3%, CSI 300 2.1%, All Developed World ex uSA 1.8%, AEX 2.7%, ATX 3.5%, KBW Banks 8.2%, BUX 3.8%, CAC 3.8%, China A50 2.3%, DAX 3.4%, DJ Industrials 3.7%, Dow Jones Transports 3.2%, MIB 3.4%, HSCEI 3.1%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 2.9%, IDX 1.8%, S&P SmallCap 600 4.3%, Russell 2000 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.5%, KRE Regional Banks 8.2%, KSE 1.8%, FTSE 250 4.4%, S&P MidCap 400 4.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.9%, Helsinki 2.1%, Stockholm 3.7%, PX 2%, SA40 1.8%, SOX 5.4%, Chile 2.1%, S&P 500 2.9%, TA35 3.1%, FTSE 100 3.1%, WIG 1.8% and the ASX Materials Index rose 2.6%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.8%), Lean Hogs (1.7%), JKM LNG (2.2%), Lumber (2.1%), Platinum (3.1%), Cane Sugar (5.2%), Raw Sugar (2.1%), Gold in ZAR (1.5%), KLSE (2.2%), Nikkei 225 (1.9%), Copenhagen (2.1%), SET (2%) and Philippines PSE fell 2.2%.

January 19, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 10, 2025)

January 12, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Austrian, Chilean, French & Dutch 10 year government bond yields

Eurozone 5 year government bond yield

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Brent Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

Heating Oil

Cattle

Natural Gas *

Gasoil

Corn

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2,5 and 10 year government bond yield *

Brazilian, Europe and British 10 year government bond yields *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield *

DXY Index *

Arabica Coffee

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD and EUR

Hungary’s BUX Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 2 year bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 5 year bond yield *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

Urea U.S. Gulf 

Gold in ZAR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian 10 year government bond yields * 

ZAR/USD *

FTSE 250 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields * 

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

AUD/THB

AUD/USD

CAD/USD *

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

NZD/USD

RMB/USD *

DKK/USD *

INR/USD *

KRW/USD *

SGD/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Newcastle Coal *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

The Euro 10 year yield has risen for 6 weeks straight as has the US10/2 yield spread.

Spanish, French, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks. 

Many of the spreads appearing in last weeks list, no longer appear.

And Czech 10’s broke their 5 week rising streak.

Equities mostly declined.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 13 of the past 14 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 7 straight weeks and for 12 of the past 13.

Some U.S. indices had bearish outside reversal weeks.

Brazil’s BOVESPA breaks its 4 week losing streak and bounces out of oversold.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

While Chinese and Hong Kong equities were notable decliners, again.

The HSCEI Index has fallen 16% since it registered an overbought quinella at the beginning of October 2024.

Commodity prices were mixed.

The broader commodity indices rose due to the weighting of their constituents.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is overbought while the CRB is near.

Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Grains and Base Metals were the notable gainers.

Coal, LNG, Cocoa and Orange Juice were amongst the weeks losers.

Arabica coffee returns to being overbought, while Rice bounced from oversold territory.

Coal prices are in oversold territory.

Gold as priced in AUD and CAD has risen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Following last week’s quip, Nickel bounced.

Sugar has fallen for 12 of the past 14 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas fell 9%, giving up half of the 18% gain seeing the previous 3 weeks. 

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 33 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 84 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again and again.

The DXY (USD) Index remains in overbought territory,

The AUD was weak and it returns to being oversold versus the USD and against the THB.

It has fallen 6 weeks straight against the former.

The Loonie rose and did the Yen.

The Pound Sterling was weaker.

The Swiss Franc has fallen for 5 weeks against the USD.

The Loonie remains oversold versus the USD as does China’s Renminbi.

And the NZD/USD has fallen for 13 of the past 15 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 3.7%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 4.1%, Brent Crude 3.6%, WTI Crude Oil 3.5%, Lean Hogs 2.2%, Copper 5.7%, Heating Oil 6.5%, Lumber 2.1%, Cattle 2.4%, Tin 4.5%, Natural Gas 18.9%, Nickel 3.7%, Palladium 5%, Platinum 5%, S&P GSCI 3.1%, CRB Index 3.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 4%, Gasoil 4.2%, Silver in AUD 3.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 3.1%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 3.7%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 4.1%, Corn 4.4%, Oats 1.9%, Rice 3.8%, Soybean 3.4%, BUX 2.5%, CAC 2%, DAX 1.6%, Chile 1.6% and Italy’s MIB rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (4.1%), Richards Bay Coal (7.1%), Rotterdam Coal (6.6%), Baltic Dry Index (2.2%), Cocoa (5.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.1%), Lithium Hydroxide (7.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.3%), Orange Juice (3.1%), Sugar (2.2%), Sugar (2.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.3%), Uranium (1.7%), KBW Banks (2.3%), China A50 (2.8%), DJ Industrials (1.8%), Egypt 30 (2.1%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (3.5%), Jakarta (2%), S&P Small Caps 600 (2.7%), Russell 2000 (3.4%), Nasdaq Composite (2.3%), KLSE (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (3.7%), KSE (3.7%), FTSE 250 (4.2%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.7%), Nasdaq Biotech (1.7%), Nasdaq 100 (2.2%), Nikkei 225 (1.8%), NIFTY (2.4%), SENSEX (2.3%), SOX (2.4%), Vietnam (1.9%) and the S&P 500 fell 1.9%.

January 12, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 2025)

January 5, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 5 year bond yield *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

Austrian 10 year government bond yield

Japan Korean Marker (JPM) LNG *

Natural Gas *

CAD/AUD

GBP/AUD *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2 year government bond yield *

Brazil 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield *

DXY Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Rice

AUD/IDR

AUD/GBP *

AUD/CAD

EUR/USD

NZD/USD

RMB

ZAR/USD *

Egypt 30 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

BRL/USD *

CAD/USD *

DKK/USD

KRW/USD *

SGD/USD

Brazil’s BOVESPA Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

INR/USD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed again.

The Euro 10 year yield has risen for 5 weeks straight.

Belgian, Finnish, Spanish, French Italian, Portuguese and Belgian yields have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks

All British yields and Brazilian 10’s broke their respective 4 and 6 week rising streaks.

And Chinese 10’s resumed their decline falling to a new low of 1.6%.

Equities mostly rose.

Strength tended to favour the small/mid caps over the large caps.

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 12 of the past 13 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 6 straight weeks.

Brazil’s BOVESPA has fallen for 4 straight weeks and enters the oversold region.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index is in 6 week losing streaks.

While Chinese and Hong Kong equities were notable decliners.

Commodity prices were mixed.

Oil, Gases, Coking Coal, Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Uranium were the notable gainers.

Aluminium, Steel, Wheat, Lumber, Rubber and Nickel prices were amongst the weeks losers.

Arabica coffee isn’t overbought this week.

Australian Coking Coal not oversold, nor is Uranium.

Gold as priced in AUD and CAD has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Corn broke its 4 week rising streak.

Nickel is now trading 32% below its 200 week moving average and at its lowest close since early June, 2020.

Sugar has fallen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas has climbed 19% over the past 3 weeks.

Palladium and Uranium broke their respective 5 and 6 weeks of declines. 

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 32 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 83 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again.

The big news was the DXY (USD) Index entering overbought territory,

And the resulting extremes appearing in this weeks list.

The Aussie, Loonie and Yen were firmer.

Swiss was weak as was the Euro and Pound Sterling.

The Chilean Peso is in a 5 week losing streak versus the USD.

And the AUD bounced from being oversold against the Thai Baht.

EUR/JPY and JPY/USD broke their 4 straight weeks of gains.

The Loonie remains oversold versus the USD as does China’s Renminbi.

And the NZD/USD has fallen for 12 of the past 14 weeks as it registers its lowest close since May 2009.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 4.6%, Baltic Dry Index 7.5%, Brent Crude 4.1%, Cocoa 11%, WTI Crude 4.7%, Heating Oil 4.4%, Cattle 1.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.5%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.5%, Gasoline 4.2%, Sugar 1.5%, S&P GSCI 1.9%, CRB Index 1.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.4%, Gasoil 3.3%, Uranium 6.5%, Gold in EUR 1.9%, Gold in GBP 2%, Pakistan 5.6%, Oslo 2.6%, Poland’s WIG 2% and Jakarta Composite rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.3%), Cotton (1.8%), North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (3.1%), Lean Hogs (4%), Copper/Gold Ratio (2%), U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel (3%), Lumber (3.7%), Lithium Carbonate (6%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Nickel (1.5%), Rubber (2.7%), Wheat (3.2%), Shanghai Composite (5.6%), CSI 300 (5.2%), China A50 (3.9%), HSCEI (2%), Hang Seng (1.6%) and Taiwan’s TAEIX fell 1.6%.

January 5, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 27, 2024)

December 29, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 2 year bond yield 

Australian 10 year bond yield minus Australian 5 year bond yield 

Chilean 2 and 10 year government bond yields

Swedish 10 year government bond yield

Japan Korean Marker (JPM) LNG

Natural Gas

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2 year government bond yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Arabica coffee *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Brazil 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Rice

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

ZAR/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

RMB/USD *

CAD/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

Uranium

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

INR/USD *

KRW/USD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed overall, with a bias for higher rates. 

Euro 5’s and 10’s yields have risen for 4 weeks straight.

Yields across the British curve have also climbed for 4 weeks, as have Swedish 10’s.

The South Korean 10 year yield has bounced since its oversold reading 3 weeks ago.

Brazilian 10’s have risen for 6 weeks.

Chinese yields broke their 6 consecutive weeks of declines.

The U.S. 10 minus Euro 10 spread is nearly overbought.

While this week sees the return of the Aussie yield curve return to overbought territory.

Equities were stronger, reversing the previous 2 weeks of weakness.

The overreactive decline following last weeks Fed announcement seems comical now. 

The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 11 of the past 12 weeks.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 5 straight weeks.

The Russell 2000 rose and Oslo’s OBX Index broke their 4 week losing streak.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index is in 5 week losing streaks.

And Indonesia’s IDX is nearly oversold.

Commodity prices were mixed.

Gases, Corn and Wheat were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Oat and Coal prices were amongst the weeks losers.

Aluminium and JKM LNG (in Yen) broke their 4 week losing streaks.

Gold as priced in AUD and CAD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks, as has Corn.

Nickel is now trading 32% below its 200 week moving average and at its lowest close since early June, 2020.

Sugar has fallen for 11 of the past 12 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas has climbed 15% over the past 2 weeks.

The Baltic Dry Index broke its 5 week losing streak,

Palladium has declined for 5 weeks, 

while Uranium extends its loses to 6 consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs and Cocoa broke their respective 5 and 6 straight weeks of gains.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 31 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 82 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie was weaker again.

The Thai Baht is at its highest against the AUD since June 2020.

The AUD has fallen for 10 of the past 13 weeks against the USD and the CAD.

The Euro was firmer.

EUR/JPY has risen for 4 straight weeks.

And so, the Yen was weaker and it has fallen for 4 weeks against the USD.

The Loonie remains oversold versus the USD as does China’s Renminbi.

And the NZD/USD has fallen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Rotterdam Coal 3.2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.6%, JKM LNG 4.6%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.1%, Corn 1.7%, Wheat 2.5%, All World Developed ex USA 1.6%, China A50 2%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 1.9%, TAIEX 3.4%, KLSE 2.3%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Oslo 1.8%, Copenhagen 3.3%, Helsinki 1.7%, PSE 1.9%, SET 2.7%, SMI 1.8%, SOX 3.2%, ASX Financials 3.4%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Industrials 2.1%, ASX Small Caps and Turkiye’s BIST rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australia Coking Coal (2%), Cocoa (15.3%), Lean Hogs (2.1%), Newcastle Coal (1.9%), Orange Juice (2.7%), Uranium (3%), Oats (9.5%), Rice (1.5%), Egypt (1.9%) and Brazil’s BOVESPA fell 1.5%.

December 29, 2024

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 20, 2024)

December 22, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the Australia’s 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australia’s 10 year bond yield *

Natural Gas

CHF/AUD

GBP/AUD *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield

Arabica coffee *

RMB/USD *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Brazil 10 year government bond yield

Orange Juice

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year bond yield *

Rice

AUD/CHF

AUD/GBP

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

IDR/USD

Bovespa

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Swiss SMI

FTSE 100

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

AUD/THB *

KRW/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

BRL/USD

CAD/USD

INR/USD *

Copenhagen’s OMX 25 Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose again, leaving those recently oversold as a memory.

Only a few fell such as those in Belgium and Finland.

Brazilian 10’s have risen for 7 weeks.

Chinese yields have declined for 6 consecutive weeks.

Korean 10’s are not oversold anymore.

The U.S. 10 minus Euro 10 spread is nearly overbought.

The U.S. 5 year ‘real interest rate’ is overbought. The 10 year version is close to being so too.

And as pre-empted in last week’s edition, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month bill spread is overbought this week.

Equities were weaker, adding to last week’s general weaker bias.

U.S. small and mid caps got hit the hardest.

The Nasdaq Composite and 100 broke their 4 week rising streak. Both also performed a bearish outside reversal week. 

Chile’s stock market broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.

Pakistan’s KSE snapped its 8 week winning streak.

The KBW Banking Index has fallen 8% in the past 3 weeks since its recent overbought extreme.

The Regional Banks (KRE) Index and Oslo’s OBX Index are in 4 week losing streaks.

Helsinki’s OMX Index has fallen for 10 of the past 12 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports has sunk 10% over the past 3 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX is nearly oversold.

And Czechia’s PX Index is among the rare advancers for the week.

Commodity prices were mostly weaker.

Only Cocoa, Orange Juice, Gases and Lumber were amongst the notable gainers.

The latter broke its 5 week losing streak.

The extensive list of decliners appear below.

Aluminium and JKM LNG (in Yen) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Baltic Dry Index and Uranium have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Inversely, Lean Hogs and Cocoa have risen for 5 and 6 straight weeks, respectively. 

Soybeans are nearly oversold.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 30 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 81 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie was weaker and it features in this weeks list of extremes.

It has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks versus the USD.

The Loonie was also weaker. It’s now oversold versus the USD.

The Swiss was firmer as was the Euro.

The British Pound also saw strength against all except the USD.

Japan’s Yen softened. 

ZAR/USD broke its streak of 4 consecutive weeks of gains. 

And the NZD/USD has fallen for 10 of the past 12 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 5.8%, JKM LNG 4.4%, Lumber 5.4%, Natural Gas 14.3%, Orange Juice 3.1% and Dutch TTF Gas rose 7.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.6%), Baltic Dry Index (5.8%), Brent Crude (1.9%), WTI Crude (2%), Cotton (1.8%), Copper (2.3%), Heating Oil (1.6%), Cattle (1.9%), Tin (3.6%), Newcastle Coal (2.6%), Nickel (2%), Palladium (4.4%), Gasoline (2.9%), Robusta Coffee (3.8%), Sugar (2.7%), Gasoil (2%), Uranium (4.8%), Silver in AUD (1.7%), Silver in USD (3.4%), Oats (4.8%), Rice (6.3%), Wheat (3.5%), All World Developed ex USA (3.6%), AEX (2%), KBW Banks (3.4%), BUX (l.8%), CAC (1.8%), DAX (2.6%), DJ Industrials (2.5%), DJ Transports (4.9%), MIB (3.2%), IBEX (2.4%), BOVESPA (2%), IDX (6.1%), S&P SmallCap 600 (5.7%),Russell 2000 (4.8%), TAEIX (2.2%), Nasdaq Composite (1.8%), KRE Regional Banks (6.1%), KSE (4.2%), KOSPI (3.6%), FTSE 250 (2.1%), S&P MidCap 400 (4.9%), Mexico (3.9%), Nasdaq Biotech (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.6%), Nikkei 225 (2%), NIFTY (4.8%), Oslo (3.1%), Copenhagen (5.1%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (3.2%), PSE (3.2%), SA40 (3.3%), SENSEX (5%), SET (4.7%), SMI (2.7%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (2%), STI (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (4.5%), TSX (2.7%), FTSE (2.6%), WIG (2.6%), BIST (4%), ASX Financials (3.4%), ASX 200 (2.8%), ASX Materials (4.8%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3%.

December 22, 2024

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 13, 2024)

December 15, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Finnish 10 year government bond yields *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the Australia’s 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australia’s 10 year bond yield *

GBP/AUD *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Singapore’s STI Index

Israel’s TA35 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Cocoa *

Arabica Coffee *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Austrian, Danish, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese government bond yields *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year bond yield

Newcastle Coal *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAC/USD

Chinese Renminbi 

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese & South Korean 10 year government bond yields *

AUD/THB

AUD/GBP

INR/USD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose for a change.

Only a few fell such as those in Japan and South Korea.

Belgium 10’s snapped their 5 week run of rising yields.

Brazilian 10’s have risen for 6 weeks.

Chinese yields have declined for 5 consecutive weeks.

Danish, Spanish, French Italian, Dutch, Norwegian and Portuguese 10’s bore their 5 week declining streak.

U.S. break-even inflation rates rose.

And the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month bill spread is nearing an overbought reading.

Equities were mixed, with a lower bias.

The Nasdaq Composite and 100 have climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Chile’s stock market has risen for 5 straight weeks.

While the KSE has risen for 8 straight weeks.

Toronto’s TSX and the U.S. KBW Bank Index departed overbought territory.

Australia’s Industrials Index snaps its 5 week advance.

And the DAX makes an overbought extreme.

Commodity prices were mixed.

Gold, Oil, Petroleum and most Gases rose.

JKM LNG and Dutch TTF Gas prices fell.

Sugar, Lumber and Coffee tool a breather.

The Baltic Dry Index is in a 4 week losing streak, declining 50% over that time. It is now at its lowest point since mid-July 2023.

Cocoa makes a return to the overbought tables, rising for the past 5 weeks.

Inversely, Lumber has slumped for 5 consecutive weeks. 

Arabica coffee broke its 5 week winning streak.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 29 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 80 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active.

While the Aussie was mixed, it rose 1.9% against the Yen.

The AUD is no oversold against the SGD, ZAR and Thai Baht.

The Loonie was weaker, again. It’s now oversold versus the USD.

BRL/USD is no longer oversold.

And the Yen fell.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude Oil 4.5%, WTI Crude Oil 6.1%, Heating Oil 6.3%, Cattle 3.1%, Natural Gas 6.6%, Orange Juice 1.8%, Gasoline 4.9%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 2.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.5%, Gasoil 7.6%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in GBP 1.5%, Oats 2.6%, ATX 1.8%, KSE 4.8%, KOSPI 2.7%, PX 2.1%, Chile’s IPSA 1.8% and the SOX rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (19.4%), U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2%), JKM LNG (3.5%), Coffee (3.3%), Lumber (5%), LNG JKM in Yen (7.6%), Sugar (5%), Dutch TTF Gas (11.3%), CSI 300 (1%), All World Developed ex USA (1.5%), KBW Index (2.9%), DJ Industrials (1.7%), IBEX (2.7%), Russell  2000 (2.5%), KRE Regional Bank Index (2.7%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.5%), Nasdaq Biotech Index (4%), Helsinki (1.8%), Stockholm (2.2%), PSE (1.7%), SET (1.4%), S&P 500 (0.6%), Nasdaq Transports (2.6%), TSX (1.6%), WIG (1.5%), ASX Financials (2%), ASX 200 (1.5%), ASX Industrials (2%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.3%.

December 15, 2024

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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