Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2025)

September 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CNH/USD

MYR/USD

THB/USD

HSCEI Index

IPC Mexico equity index *

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50 *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

USD/SEK *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

NZD/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand

It was a boring week in bonds.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.

Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.

New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.

Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.

The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.

The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.

While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.

Commodities were generally quiet.

Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category. 

Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.

While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.

The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.

JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.

And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.

September 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

September 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 5th, 2025)

September 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese, French, British, Greek Norwegian & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

30 year British bond yield 

IEF & IEI

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Italian 2 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR

AUD/CAD

BOVESPA 

IPC Mexico equity index 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in CHF & EUR

Shanghai Composite Index *  

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Israel’s TA 35 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in US and CAD

CSI 300 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian 10 year government bond yield  

U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Australian Coking Coal

Philippines PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

Some overbought entrants this week appeared as so due to intra week highs.

U.S. corporate bond yields are nearing oversold levels.

U.S. 7 year bond yields are close to some mean reversion.

Indonesian 10 year yields rose and broke a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 2 and 3 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 6 week losing streak. 

Indian 10 year yields fell and halted their 8 week climb, 

And June 2019 was the last time the U.S. 5 year real interest rate simultaneously mean reverted and registered an oversold extreme.

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

A couple Chinese indices left overbought extreme territory.

Shanghai, CSI 300, KBW Banks index, ASX 200 and FCATC fell and ended their 4 week winning streak.

The following indices are in 5 week winning streaks; Bovespa, Russell 2000, TSX and the ASX Small Caps.

While the HSCEI and Hang Seng rose.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Gases, Precious Metals and  Rubber were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Coffee, Coal, Lithium, Orange Juice, Sugar, Oats and Wheat dominated the losers category. 

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 5 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Tin and Uranium broke their 4 week winning.

Platinum has risen for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Cattle broke its 10 straight weeks of gains.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Euro and Swissie rose.

The CHF/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie fell.

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer, again.

The U.S. Dollar was slightly weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 5 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 6 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 1.6%, LNG in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 1.7%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold in AUD 3.8%, Gold in USD 4%, Rubber 2.9%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.7%, Gold in GBP 4%, Gold in CAD 4.7%, Gold in ZAR 3.7%, IBB 3.6%, KSE 3.8%, Mexico 3%, NBI 3.6%, SET 2.3%, SMI 1.5%, SOX 1.6%, IGPA 3.3%, IPSA 3.5%, XBI 6.3% and Canada’s TSX rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Brent Crude (2.9%), BDI (2.3%), Cocoa (3.1%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Arabica Coffee (3.2%), Lumber (1.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.6%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Nickel (1.4%), Orange Juice (5.2%), Robusta Coffee (10.5%), Sugar (5%), Tin (2.3%), CRB Index (1.5%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.9%), Oats (3.7%), Rice (2.3%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (2.8%), KBW Bank Index (1.6%), DAX (1.3%), Egypt (2.7%), FCATC (2.7%), BIST (5%) and Italy’s MIB fell 1.4%.

September 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending August 22, 2025)

August 24, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Chinese, British and Dutch 10 year government bond yields  

British 30 year bond yields 

FCATC Index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Indian 10 year government bond yields  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

All World Developed (ex USA) equity index 

Hungary’s BUX Index * 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index * 

Italy’s MIB 

Spain’s IBEX * 

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index * 

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices 

Isreal’s TA35 

Canada’s TSX * 

FTSE 100 

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

The ASX 200 * 

ASX Industrials 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Shanghai Composite Index * 

CSI 300 

China’s A50 equity index

 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Rice 

AUD/SGD 

NZD/USD 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesian 10 year government bond yield  

Lumber * 

CAD/EUR 

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell…… 

with the exception of British, Japanese and Brazilians. 

Turkish 10 year and Chilean 2 year yields rose and broke their 4 week declining streaks.  

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold this week and in a 4 week losing streak. 

Indian 10’s have climbed for 7 weeks. 

Russian 10 year bonds yield rose and broke 13 straight weeks of decline. 

Equities rose nearly everywhere, again. 

This week sees the FTSE 100 and the ASX Industrials join many other overbought indices. 

While Chinese indices register an overbought extreme quinella. 

The Nordic bourse, U.S. midcaps, U.S. banks and Aussie financials all had a good week. 

Czechia’s OX Index fell and ended a 7 week winning streak. 

Bangkok fell and broke its 8 week winning streak. 

Karachi is in a 9 week winning streak. 

Commodities were mainly firmer. 

Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Coffee and Cattle were the notable gainers. 

Coal, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

This week Lithium Hydroxide followed its Carbonate peer leaving oversold territory  

Palladium, Wheat and Hesting Oil rose and broke its 4-week losing streak. 

Robusta Coffee and Cattle prices are in a 9-week winning streak. 

Henry Hub Natural Gas is in a 5-week losing streak.  

And Oats have fallen for 7 weeks. 

Currencies saw some movement. 

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker, again. 

Swissie rose, again. 

The USD was mostly weaker, again. 

The BRL/USD fell to end its 4 straight weeks of gains. 

The Colombina Peso has risen for 4 weeks against the USD. 

The AUD has fallen for 4 weeks against the GBP. 

The Yen and Euro were firmer. 

And the U.S. Dollar fell versus the Indian Rupee to end its 7-week rising streak. 

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.3%, Brent Crude Oil 2.9%, WTI Crude Oil 2.7%, Cattle 3.1%, Heating Oil 3.7%, JKM LNG 5.5%, Arabica Coffee 13.2%, LNG in Yen 2.2%, Gasoline 4.5%, Robusta Coffee 15.8%, S&P GSCI 2%, CRB Index 1.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.2%, Gasoil 3.7%, Uranium 1.7%, Silver in AUD 2.5%, Silver in USD 2.3%, Soybean 1.5%, Shanghai 3.5%, CSI 300 4.2%, AEX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.5%, China A50 4.7%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, DJ Transports 2.8%, Oslo 1.9%, Copenhagen 3.7%, Helsinki 1.9%, Stockholm 1.8%, SMI 1.6%, S&P 500 0.3%, Nasdaq Transports 1.5%, TSX 1.5%, FTSE 100 2%, ASX Financials 3.5%, ASX Industrials 2.5% and BIST rose 4.6%. 

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (3.3%), Baltic Dry Index (4.9%), Cocoa (6%), Natural Gas (7.5%), Orange Juice (2.1%), Oats (2.7%), Rice (8.2%), ATX (1.2%), TAIEX (2.3%), Nasdaq Composite (0.6%), KOSPI (1.8%), Nikkei 225 (1.7%), WIG (1.6%) and the ASX Materials fell 2.4%.

August 24, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 11, 2025)

July 12, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio

Copper

CSI 300 Index

Shanghai Composite Index *

China A50 Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle

Urea (U.S. gulf prices)

Gasoil

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY *

CHF/USD *

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index

South Korea’s KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Palladium 

Platinum 

Urea (Middle East) prices

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR *

USD/CHF *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, except for Finland’s and Indonesia’s.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

China’s 10 year yields have declined for 6 weeks.

Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread is at maximum bullishness

And the U.S. 10 year divided by Aussie 10 year yield is entering a new downtrend.

Equities were generally higher, although subdued compared to recent weeks.

This week sees some Chinese indices registering some overbought extremes.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 7 week winning streak. 

Hungary’s BUX and Vietnam’s VN Index are also overbought this week.

The latter is in a 4 week winning streak along with Israel’s TA35.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oil, Copper, Precious Metals, Urea and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.

Rubber is in a 4 week wining streak.

Urea has climbed for 5 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight and has registered an overbought quinella.

Orange Juice soared and broke its 5 weeks losing streak.

Aluminium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Sugar rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Rice has fallen for 4 weeks.

Arabica is in a 5 week losing streak.

Corn is nearing an oversold quinella.

And Nickel’s downtrend is picking steam.

Currencies were active, again.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index rose and leaves oversold territory.

The USD/CHF is at maximum bearishness.

Brazil’s Real few and broke its 5 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Euro and Yen were both weaker.

The EUR/JPY has climbed for 7 weeks.

CAD/CHF is in a 5 week losing streak.

CHF/JPY has risen for 7 weeks.

The Aussie rose. 

The AUD/IDR and AUD/JPY have risen for 4 weeks.

The latter is nearing an overbought reading.

The AUD/EUR rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The Swiss rose.

The Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2.8%, Rotterdam Coal 2.8%, Brent Crude 3%, Baltic Dry Index 15.8%, WTI Crude Oil 2.2%, Palm Oil 2.8%, Copper 9%, Heating Oil 3.3%, Cattle 3.8%, LNG in Yen 4.9%, Newcastle Coal 3.8%, Orange Juice 31.5%, Palladium 11.8%, Platinum 6.4%, Gasoline 3.2%, Sugar #16 4.1%, Rubber 1.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.8%, Urea (U.S. Gulf) 3.6%, Gasoil 5.4%, Urea Middle East 5.7%, Silver AUD 3.6%, Silver USD 4%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Gold in ZAR 2.6%, ATX 2.3%, CAC 1.7%, IDX 2.7%, DAX 2%, KSE 1.8%, KOSPI 4%, STI 1.9%, Vietnam 5.1% and XBI Biotechs rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.5%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (3.3%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.8%), Natural Gas (2.8%), Robusta (12.5%), Uranium (6.8%), Corm (5.8%), Oats (4.9%), Soybean (4%), Wheat (2.1%), Mexico (2.4%) and the BOVESPA fell 3.6%.

July 12, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 4, 2025)

July 6, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Platinum

Richards Bay Coal

COP/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Urea (U.S. gulf prices)

CHF/USD *

CHF/JPY

EUR/USD *

GBP/USD

Toronto’s TSX Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Pakistan’s KSE Index 

South Korea’s KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. (DXY) Index *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR *

HKD/USD *

USD/CHF *

USD/DKK *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed.

Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

China’s 10 year yields have declined for 5 weeks.

Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.

Last week’s bond yield spreads are no longer in todays list.

And the U.S. 2 year bond yields have reverted to a longer term mean reversion.

Equities had another good week.

Hong Kong based indices were the few which were lower.

Toronto’s TSX joins the Shanghai Composite in overbought territory.

The former has risen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 6 week winning streak. 

Thailand’s SET index moved out from oversold territory.

Commodities were mixed, again, again, but plenty of streaks are developing.

Oils and Distillates along with Oats, Wheat, Soybeans and Precious Metals were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.

Tin broke its 4 week winning streak.

Lean Hogs broke its 5 weeks of advance.

Urea has climbed for 4 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.

Aluminium is in a 5 week winning streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight.

Orange Juice has fallen or 5 weeks.

Sugar is in a 8 week losing streak.

Arabica is in a 4 week losing streak.

And Robusta Coffee rose and broke its 9 consecutive weeks of losses.

Currencies were active, again.

The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index continues to appear in oversold territory.

And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme readings this week.

A new entrant is the Colombian Peso being overbought against the USD.

The Aussie and Loonie were subdued and mixed again.

Sterling and the USD were both weaker.

The AUD/EUR is in a 4 week losing streak.

Brazil’s Real is in a 5 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Euro has climbed for 6 weeks vs the Yen.

CAD/CHF is in a 4 week losing streak.

CHF/JPY has risen for 6 weeks.

And the Chinese Yuan has strengthened against the USD for 5 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude 3%, WTI Crude 2.3%, Heating Oil 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Platinum 1.8%, Gasoline 2.4%, Shanghai Rebar 1.9%, Urea U.S. gulf prices 2.5%, Gasoil 10.4%, Silver in AUD 2.3%, Silver in USD 2.6%, Corn 2.1%, Oats 6.2%, Soybeans 2.4%, Wheat 3%, CSI 300 1.5%, KBW Banks 4.8%, BUX 1.7%, China A50 2.3%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, DJ Transports 3.6%, IBB biotech ETF 2.8%, BOVESPA 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.3%, Russell 2000 3.5%, Nasdaq Composite 1.6%, KRE Regional Banks 6.4%, KSE 6.1%, S&P MidCap 2.8%, NBI biotech ETF 3%, Nasdaq 100 1.5%, OBX 1.5%, SET 3.5%, SOX 1.8%, S&P 500 1.7%, TA35 4.4%, Nasdaq Transports 3.2%, XBI biotech ETF 2.7%, BIST 9.3% and ASX Materials Index rose 2.9%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (5.6%), Cocoa (9.2%), Lean Hogs (4.7%), Arabica Coffee (4.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (1.8%), Natural Gas (8.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Sugar (2%), Uranium (2.1%), Rice (3.9%), HSCEI (1.8%) and the Hang Seng fell 1.5%. 

July 6, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 27, 2025)

June 29, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium

Uranium

Shanghai Composite

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Platinum * 

KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. (DXY) Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/CHF

CAD/EUR

HKD/USD *

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields generally fell, again, again….

Except for Japanese yields where the 5’s and 10’s broke their 4 week falling streak.

High Yield Corporates are nearing oversold territory.

U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be a maximum bullishness.

Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

The Chinese 10’s have done so for 4 weeks.

U.S. 2 year bond yields are near longer term mean reversion,

While the U.S. 3 year yields already did so.

Equities were had a good week.

Asian indices fared well with the Shanghai Composite registering an overbought reading.

South Korea’s KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 4 week winning streak. 

Norway’s OMX broke its 4 week winning streak.

Indonesias IDX broke its 4 week losing streak.

Thailand’s SET index broke it 6 consecutive weeks of losses.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Oils, Distillates and Gases dominated the losers, along with the Softs.

The Copper/Gold Ratio rose notably which aligned with the ‘rick-on’ appetite seen in equities.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 10% and 24% over the past fortnight.

Gold prices fell and as such Gold Volatility mean reverted.

Tin looks like its set for a higher move as it registers a 4 week winning streak.

Platinum has also risen for 4 week straight, advancing 25% during that time.

Robusta Coffee has sunk for 9 consecutive weeks.

And Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.

Currencies were active.

The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index appearing in oversold territory.

And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme treading this week.

The Aussie was mixed. It was weaker versus the Europeans and stronger in Asia and the USD.

Brazil’s Real is in a 4 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Loonie was mostly weaker with the CAD/EUR in a 4 week losing streak.

The Swissie was stronger and the CHF/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.

EUR/JPY has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

GBP was stronger.

Yen was mixed.

PHP/USD broke its 4 week losing streak

And the USD/INR broke its 4 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Cocoa 9.2%, Cotton 3,9%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 1.7%, Tin 3.3%, Nickel 1.5%, Palladium 9.2%, Platinum 5.8%, Uranium 2.5%, Oats 2.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.8%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks Index 5.6%, DAX 2.9%, Dj Industrials 3.9%, DJ Transports 4.9%, Egypt 9.1%, FCATC Index 4.5%, HSCEI 2.8%, Hang Seng 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3%, TAIEX 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.3%, KLSE 1.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 3.6% FTSE 250 2.7%, Mexico 2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.6%, Nasdaq 100 4.2%, Nikkei 225 4.6%, NIFTY 2.1%, Stockholm 2.4%, SENSEX 2%, SOX 6.4%, S&P 500 3.4%, STI 2.1%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, WIG 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX Materials 1.8%.


For reference, the ASX 200 rose 0.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.6%), Brent Crude (12.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.3%), Baltic Dry Index (10%), DXY Index (1.5%), Palm Oil (2.6%), Heating Oil (10.5%), HRC (2.4%), JKM LNG (7.4%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (13,3%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Natural Gas (6.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Gasoline (10.4%), Robusta Coffee (2.2%), Sugar (1.8%), S&P GSCI (6.1%), CRB Index (4.,1%), Dutch TTF Gas (14.1%), Gasoil (11%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (5.1%), Gold in EUR (4.4%), Gold in GBP (4.7%), Gold in USD (2.8%), Gold in ZAR (4%), Corn (2.8%), Rice (2%), Soybeans (3.4%), Wheat (7.3%), OBX (2.2%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.6%.

June 29, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 30, 2025)

June 1, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Platinum *

Oats

MYR/USD *

THB/USD *

KOSPI

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread 

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Tel Aviv 25 Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Robusta Coffee

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly fell.

Finnish, Danish and shorter duration Gilts bucked that trend.

All other remaining bond yields have departed extreme territory except for the Indian 10 year bond yield.

IEF and TLT rose and broke their 4 week losing streaks.

TBT & TBX eased lower and moved out of overbought territory.

Aussie yields spreads along with the U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate are nearly overbought.

Chinese & Korean 10 year bond yields along with Japanese 2’s are in a 4 week rising streak.

Italian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

And the U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields broke their 4 week rising streaks.

Equities were generally firmer.

Although Asian markets were mostly weaker.

So much, that the HSCEI broke its 6 week wining streak and the Hang Seng ended its 7 weeks of advance.

Spain’s IBEX is in a 7 weeks winning streak and remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 7 of the last 8 weeks.

Commodities had a lower bias.

The largest winners were Hogs, Orange Juice, Oats, Rice and Shipping Rates

The notable losers included Copper, Coffee, Precious Metals, Gases, Oils and Distillates.

Platinum is overbought while Gold in AUD and USD dropped out.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 4 week winning streak.

Robusta Coffee has fallen for 5 weeks.

Arabica Coffee has slumped 12% over the past 3 weeks, 

while Orange Juice has soared 32% since its oversold appearance 10 weeks ago.

And Richards Bay Coal retuned to being oversold.

Currencies were mixed.

The Aussie fell.

The Loonie eeked out some small gains as did the USD.

The Euro rose and the EUR/GBP broke 6 weeks of declines.

Sterling was mixed.

The Yen fell,

and the USD/ZAR broke its 7 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 5.8%, Lean Hogs 3.1%, U.S. HRC 2.4%, Orange Juice 4.4%, Oats 6.8%, Rice 2.5%, KBW Banks 1.5%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, Egypt 2.3%, MIB 1.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 1.3%, Russell 2000 1.2%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KOSPI 4.1%, FTSE 250 1.5%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Nikkei 225 2.2%, SOX 1.2%, S&P 500 1.9%, TA35 4.2%, Nasdaq Transports 1.5%, WIG 1.6% and the ASX Financials rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Cotton (1.6%), Copper (3.3%), Heating Oil (3.5%), JKM LNG (2.6%), Arabica Coffee (5.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.7%), Tin (7.9%), Newcastle Coal (2.7%), Natural Gas (6.3%), Nickel (2.5%), Palladium (4.2%), Platinum (3.1%), Gasoline (2.9%), Robusta Coffee (6.9%), S&P GSCI (1.9%), Rubber (1.6%), CRB Index (2.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (6.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.3%), Brent Crude (2.2%), Gasoil (2.1%), Silver in USD (1.5%), Gold in CAD (2%), Gold in CHF and EUR (1.9%), Gold in USD (2.1%), Corn (3.4%), Soybean (1.7%), Wheat (1.6%), China A50 (2.3%), IDX (1.7%), TAIEX (1.4%), KLSE (1.8%), SET (2.3%), IGPA (3.8%), IPSA (4.2%) and BIST fell 3.6%. 

June 1, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 23, 2025)

May 25, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

U.S. 30 year government bond yield

Norwegian 10 year government bond yield

TBT & TBX

Platinum 

MYR/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread 

Gold in AUD and USD

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

USD/SEK

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.

IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.

Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.

Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.

U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought

And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.

The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.

The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.

Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.

Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.

Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.

Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak. 

Currencies were little more active.

The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.

The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.

USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.

The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%

The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.

The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.

And the Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.

May 25, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 2, 2025)

May 4, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SHY

MYR/USD

Mexico’s IPC equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

PHP/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

S&P GSCI (commodities) Index

USD/INR

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australian 2 year government bond yield *

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

USD/SEK *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None’

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose with her exception of Belgium, Brazil and the Japanese curve.

In fact, Brazilian 10’s are approaching overbought territory .

European (German) 10 year yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline. 

South Korean 10’s and Chilean 2’s ended their 4 weeks of lower travel.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 7 week declining streak.

Equities rose, everywhere, again.

The Netherland’s, Norway’s, Thailand’s, Canada’s, Poland’s main equity indices are in 4 week rising streaks.

As are the KBW Banks, the ASX’s Small Caps and Industrials along with some U.S. biotech indices.

Over the past 4 weeks, various indices have risen between 8%-13%.

Transportation indices and Thailand’s SET Index are no longer oversold.

Commodities were mostly lower.

The largest winners were Coals, Gases, Urea, Shipping Rates, Palladium and Uranium.

The notable losers included Oils & Distillates, Tin, Sugar Copper, Cocoa, Silver, Lumber and Coffee.

The big news is seeing Crude Oil prices return to oversold extremes.

Gold prices fell and those priced in USD, GBP and EUR left overbought territory.

Natural Gas broke its 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 5 straight weeks and has climbed to prices not seen since November 2022.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel & Rubber are no longer oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 100 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quiet, for a change of pace.

Continuing last weeks trend, many more currency pairs are not at extremes.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index rose and moved out from oversold territory.

The Aussie was stronger again and is in a 4 week rising streak against the Loonie, Euro and USD.

The Loonie was firmer.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Euro fell, 

And the JPY/AUD is in a 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 1.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 3.5%, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Natural Gas 16.6%, Palladium 1.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.8%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.3%, Uranium 4.4%, All Developed World – ex USA 2.9%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 4.3%, CAC 3.1%, DAX 3.8%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 4.3%, MIB 2.6%, HSCEI 1.9%, IDX 5.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAEIX 4.6%, Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, KLSE 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.6%, Nasdaq Biotechs 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 225 3.2%, Oslo 3.7%, Copenhagen 7%, Helsinki 3.9%, PSI 2.3%, Sensex 1.6%, SET 3.5%, SMI 2.6%, S&P 500 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.2%, ASX Financials 3.3%, ASX 200 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, ASX Industrials 2.6%, ASX SmallCaps 3%, IBB biotech ETF 2.7%, XBI biotech ETF 4.2% and the Philadelphia SOX Index rose 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.6%), Brent Crude Oil (6.9%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (7.5%), Lean Hogs (1.8%), Copper (4.4%), Heating Oil (5.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.5%), Lithium Carbonate (.2%), Tin (6.5%), Gasoline (4.1), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Sugar (5%), Sugar #16 (2.5%), SPGSCI (3.2%), CRB Index (2.7%), Gasoil (6.8%), Middle East Urea (1.9%), Silver in AUD (4%), Silver in USD (3.3%), Gold in AUD (3.1%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (2.5%), Gold in Euro (1.8%), Gold in GBP (2.1%), Gold in USD (2.4%), Gold in ZAR (3.9%), Corn (4%), Oats (5.7%), Rice (2.8%), Palm Oil (4.3%) and Turkiye’s BIST Index fell 2.8%.

May 4, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

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