Stay the course – March 2026 newsletter

March 30, 2026 Leave a comment

It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.

The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.

A selection of equity indices are entering their 4th and 5th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6th week.

An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/

“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”

And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.

For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”

Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”


Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;

the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey




Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.

16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.

These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;

  • 1990 recession / Gulf War
  • 2002 post-dotcom washout
  • 2008 GFC (multiple clusters)
  • 2009 final lows
  • 2020 COVID shock
  • 2022 bear market
  • 2025–2026 (current regime stress)

These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;

  • forced selling
  • sentiment entrenchment
  • positioning exhaustion

In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.

As written in past newsletters, 

“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.

In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.

You can subscribe to my newsletter by click the button on the latest newsletter

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/stay-on-course-1

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Macro Extremes (week ending March 27, 2026)

March 29, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Chilean, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, British, Norwegian, Kiwi and U.S. government bond yields.

2, 3, 5, 7 and 20-year U.S. government bond yields.

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade and High Yield yields

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Cotton *

Sugar *

Oats *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2-year British and Japanese government bond yields.

Aussie and British 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

JKM LNG in USD

Newcastle Coal *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

AUD/INR *

OBX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, Chilean, German and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

5 year Australian and German bond yields

10-year Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Korean, Polish, Portuguese & Turkish government bond yields.

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in Yen *

Gasoline *

Gasoil *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEF

IEI *

SHY *

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year minus 5-year bond yield spread

U.S. 30-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Lumber

PHP/USD

CSI 300

CAC Index *

DAX Index *

MIB

HSCEI

Hang Seng

Nasdaq Composite *

Nasdaq 100

SMI

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread

Cocoa

NZD/AUD *

HKD/USD *

KRW/USD *

IDX Composite *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

INR/USD *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

A few more 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.

Chilean 10-year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

The following also have 4 week streaks of higher yields; Aussie, German, Italian and U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 3 year, German and American 5 years along with U.S & British 30 years.

U.S. 5 and 10 years minus inflation spread yields have also increased for 4 weeks.

Meanwhile, British 3 and 5 year bond yields fell and snapped their 4 week rise.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

Equities were mainly lower, in a tale of some streaks being extended while others were broken.

Taiwan’s TAEIX, South Korea’s KOSPI and Israel’s TA 35 Index were the last to leave overbought land.

The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, NBI, Stockholm, PSE and XBI are in 4 week losing streaks.

The DJ Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.

China’s FCTAC has declined for 6 weeks.

Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports rose to snap their 4 straight weeks of decline.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 9 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 9 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed.

Intra-week saw large swings but the changes in week to week close  where muted and subdued.

Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Cotton, Silver & Tin were the notable gainers.

Gases, Coffee, Cocoa, Palladium, Platinum & Oats were amongst the decliners.

Oats, Palm Oil and Dutch TTF Gas left overbought territory.

WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.

Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.

Sugar #16 is in a 7-week winning streak.

Palladium and Platinum have declined for 4 weeks, falling 27% and 23% respectively, over that time.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 16 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie fell.

All of the Aussie pairs except against the Kiwi and Rupee exited

AUD/THB fell and snapped a 5-week rising streak.

CAD was lower.

Euro rose.

The USD was mainly higher,

CLP/USD rose slightly to snap its 5-week losing streak.

And the USD/ZAR is in a 4-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.4%, Cotton 3.2%, Heating Oil 10.7%, Cattle 2.3%, Tin 5.9%, LME Aluminium 3.3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 2.1%, Wheat 1.6%, DJ Transports 1.8%, BOVESPA 3%, Mexico 4%, SA40 1.8%, SMI 2%, S&P 600 1.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, TSX 2.1%, Vietnam 1.5% and ASX Materials rose 4.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.8%), JKM LNG (6%), Arabica Coffee (2.6%), Lumber (2.1%), Palladium (2.7%), Platinum (5.1%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.4%), Oats (4.6%), CSI 300 (1.4%), FCATC (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.2%), KOSPI (5.9%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq 100 (3.2%), SOX (2.8%), S&P 500 (2.1%), TA35 (5%) and BIST fell 2.7%.

March 29, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 20, 2026)

March 22, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Brazilian, Chilan, Czech, Spanish, British, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese and U.S. government bond yields.

2-year Chilean and U.S. government bond yields.

3-year U.S. bond yields

5-year EU and U.S. bond yields

7-year U.S. bond yields

20 year U.S. bond yields

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields

TBX

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate spread

Cotton

Palm Oil *

Sugar

Oats *

AUC/CHF *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Aussie 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

10-year Japanese bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

CNH/USD

TAEIX *

KOSPI

OBX *

TA 35 Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, EU, British and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

British 3 & 5 year bond yields

Indonesian and Greek 10-year government bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Newcastle Coal *

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

AUD/ZAR

AUD/THB *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEI

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 5 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/AUD *

KRW/USD *

CAC Index

IDX Composite *

DAX Index

Nasdaq Composite

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

UAE’s DFM Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

EUR/AUD

GBP/AUD *

HKD/USD

JPY/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year bond yield spread

NZD/AUD *

INR/USD

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

More 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

Many more yield spreads are on this week’s list.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.

Equities continued their decline.

Austria’s ATX, Indonesia’s IDX, DJ Industrials, BOVESPA, S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NIFTY and ASX Financials have all declined for 4 straight weeks.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 8 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 8 weeks.

Australia’s Materials Index has slumped 20% within 3 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 27% over the past 8 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oils, LNG, Coffee, Sugar and Distillates were the notable gainers. 

Aluminium, Copper, Tn, Orange Juice, Palladium, Silver, Gold and Soybeans were amongst the decliners.

Gold in no longer overbought, no matter which currency.

Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 5 weeks straight.

Sugar #16 is in a 6-week winning streak.

Iron Ore fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

Soybeans fell and broke a 6 week winning streak

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.

And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since late November, 2025.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR fell and snapped a 12 week rising streak.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Euro rose.

The Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke a 6 week losing run.

CAD/JPY fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

While the Colombian Peso has declined for 5 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Richards Bay Coal 4.6%, Brent Crude 8.8%, WTI Crude 1.9%, Cotton 2.2%, Heating Oil 13.8%, JKM LNG 18.4%, Arabica Coffee 8.6%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen9.5%, Newcastle Coal 7.5%, Gasoline 8%, Robusta Coffee 6.1%, Sugar 9.3%, Sugar #16 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 16.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.2%, Gasoil 19%, KBW Banks 1.6%, EGX 1.8%, KOSPI 5.4%, SET 1.7%, STI 2.2%, TA35 3.3% and Dubai’s DFM Index rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (8.8%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (6.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.1%), Tin (8.4%), Natural Gas (2%), Orange Juice (19%), Palladium (8.5%), Platinum (3.5%), Uranium (2.9%), Silver in AUD (16.2%), Silver in USD (15.8%), Gold in AUD (11%), Gold in CAD (10.5%), Gold in CHF (10.8%), Gold in EUR (11.6%), Gold in GBP (11.2%), Gold in USD (10.5%), Gold in ZAR (10.2%), Oats (4.9%), Rice (2.5%), Soybean (5.2%), Wheat (3%), Shanghai Composite (3.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), AEX (4%), ATX (1.3%), CAC (3.1%), DAX (4.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), FCATC (4.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBB (2.3%), IBEX (2%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), FTSE 250 (3.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.6%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (5.1%), South Africa 40 (4.8%), SMI (4%), IGPA (1.7%), S&P 500 (1.9%), TSX (3.8%), FTSE (3.3%), Vietnam (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.2%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Smal Caps fell 4%.

March 22, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 30, 2026)

February 1, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield

Rotterdam Coal

Brent and WTi Crude Oil

Copper

LNG priced in Yen *

Newcastle Coal

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD *

COP/USD *

NZD/USD

And Thailand’s SET Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year government bond yields *

Japanese yield curve

South Korean 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield

Australian Coking Coal

LME Aluminium

Gold in CAD, CHF, GBP and USD

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

GBP/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Hang Seng Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Gold Volatility Index

Tin *

Uranium *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

MYR/USD

USD/INR

ZAR/USD

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE

Mexico’s IPC Index

And Türkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread

Copper/Gold Ratio

DXY Index

Sugar #16

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

JPY/AUD *

USD/DKK

USD/SGD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa (LME & CBOT)

CAD/AUD

USD/CLP *

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields eased, except for the U.S. 20 and 30 years

U.S. BB rated high yields ticked up.

French 10 year yields have declined for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 yer inflation break-even has declined for 5 weeks.

While, in isolation, the 5 year break-even is nearing an overbought quinella.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields fell and snapped 5 weeks of advance.

Japanese 10 year yields broke 6 weeks of higher travel.

Japanese 5’s fell and broke a 14 week climbing streak.

Equities were mixed.

While some left, many indices remain in overbought extreme territory.

Biotech indices fell out of overbought land.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 5 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, EGX and STI are in 6 week winning streaks.

The SOX have risen for 7 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has soared for 8 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 10 weeks.

Hungary’s BUX has closed higher 7 of out last 8 weeks.

China’s FCATC and Nasdaq Transports fell and respectively broke 5 and 10 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 snapped a 6 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE broke a climb of 11 consecutive weeks.

And, at one stage, Indonesia’s IDX was down 16% for the week.

Commodities were mixed but very active.

Coal,  Oils, Fuels, Gases, Shipping Rates, Uranium and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Precious Metals, Lithium, Cocoa, Tin, Coffee and Nickel were the few decliners.

The big news was Silver 30% decline on Friday alone, along with the decline of the other precious metals which also saw them and Aluminium register weekly outside reversals.

Palm Oil, Gasoline, S&P GSCI, CRB, Gasoil, Rice and Wheat are in 4 week winning streaks.

Heating Oil and Australian Coking Coal have risen for 5 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 6 week winning streak.

Uranium has soared for 10 weeks.

Lithium prices fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 8 weeks.

While Orange Juice fell and halted 7 weeks of advance.

Cocoa and Iron Ore have sunk for 4 weeks

And North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel has declined for 5 weeks in a row.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose.

The AUD against the GBP, IDR, INR and Yen has climbed for 4 weeks.

AUD/EUR has risen for 6 weeks.

USD/BRL is lower for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 7 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 6 weeks.

Canadian Dollar was mixed.

The USD/INR has climbed for 6 weeks.

And, the USD rose against the South African Rand and snapped a 9 week streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 4.1%, Rotterdam Coal 4.7%, Brent Crude 6.9%, Baltic Dry Index 13.6%, WTI Crude 6.8%, Heating Oil 8.2%, JKM LNG 2.1%, LNG in Yen 3%, Tin 6.2%, Newcastle Coal 6.1%, Natural Gas 16.4%, Gasoline 3.4%, S&P GSCI 2.4%, CRB Index 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.5%, Gasoil 9.9%, Uranium 12%, Oats 3.2%, Rice 3.5%, Wheat 1.6%, ATX 1.6%, All Developed World ex USA 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, BUX 3%, EGX 2.9%, HSCEI 1.7%, Hang Seng 2.4%, IBEX 1.9%, BOVESPA 1.4%, KRE 1.8%, KOSPI 4.6%, Mexico 1.9%, PX 1.6%, WIG 2.1% and BIST rose 6.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.8%), LME Cocoa (3.1%), Arabica Coffee (5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (11%), Nickel (4.5%), Orange Juice (3.8%), Palladium (16%), Platinum (22.6%), Sugar (3.2%) LME Tin (8.6%), Silver in AUD 18.4%, Silver in USD (17.6%), Gold in AUD (2.8%), Gold in CAD (2.4%), Gold in CHF (2.8%), Gold in EUR (2%), Gold in GBP (2.2%), Gold in USD (1.9%), IDX (6.9%), DAX (1.5%), FCATC (2.2%), IBB (1.7%), Russell 2000 (2%), KSE (2.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.4%), NBI (1.4%), SA40 (1.9%), TSX (3.7%), VN Index (2.2%), XBI (2.6%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.1%.

February 1, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 23, 2026)

January 25, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 3, 7, 10, 20 & 30 year bond yields

LNG priced in Yen

Natural Gas

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

COP/USD *

RMB

S&P Small Cap 600 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And the S&P 600

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields *

Aluminium (CBOT & LME)

Gold in AUD, GBP & ZAR

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

Shanghai Composite *

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

iShares Biotech Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Copenhagen’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 10 and 30 year bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

Nickel *

Platinum

Uranium

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR and USD

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index

U.S. 600 Mid Caps

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Copper/Gold Ratio

Corn

CHF/AUD

USD/CHF

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

USD/CLP *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose.

Aussie curve near overbought.

AU10-2 spread ner overbought too.

U.S. high yield ‘yields’ are falling.

IEF mean reverted.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year yields have risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yield is close to oversold, for first time since August 2025.

U.S. 3 year bond yield has advanced for 5 weeks, while the 3’s and 5’s mean reverted, upwards.

Equities bias was for lower prices.

We are seeing a growing list of indices registering overbought extremes.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 4 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, FCATC and STI are in 5 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 and the SOX have risen for 6 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 7 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 9 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE and Nasdaq Transports have soared for 11 straight weeks.

Copenhagen and PSE snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

Helsinki and Stockholm fell and broke 5 winning weeks.

And Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

Commodities were mixed but mostly higher, again.

Gases, Oil, Fuels, Shipping Rates, Nickel, Tin, Tin and Precious Metals were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Lumber, Sugar and Oats were the few decliners.

Heating Oil has risen for 4 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 5 week winning streak.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 6 weeks.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price and Orange Juice have risen for 7 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has soared for 8 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 9 weeks.

Newcastle Coal has mean reverted.

Baltic Dry Index rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Cocoa has sunk for 4 weeks but its collapse following its parabolic rise is more impressive.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is also in a 4 week losing streak.

Palladium rose but didn’t make a new high.

Rubber fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

While Natural Gas rose 70% for the week, snapping a 6 week losing streak and easily recovering its 38% loss over that time.

Currencies were busier, but mixed.

Many Aussie (risk-on) and Yen (risk-off) pairs are back in the list.

CAD was weaker.

AUD/EUR has risen for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 6 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 5 weeks.

PHP/USD rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 5 weeks.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 9 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.3%, Brent Crude 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 12.4%, WTI Crude 2.9%, Palm Oil 2.5%, Copper 2%, Heating Oil 5.3%, LNG in Yen 12.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.6%, LME Aluminium 3.1%, Natural Gas 70%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Palladium 11.3%, Platinum 18%, Gasoline 3.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, Tin 18.1%, S&P GSCI 3.8%, CRB Index 3.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.5%, Gasoil 3.2%, Uranium 4.4%, Silver in AUD 11.2%, Silver in USD 14.7%, Gold in AUD 5.2%, Gold in CAD 6.8%, Gold in CHF 5.4%, Gold in EUR 6.4%, Gold in GBP 6.4%, Gold in USD 8.5%, Gold in ZAR 6.3%, Wheat 2.2%, BUX 2.3%, EGX 7.2%, IBB 3.2%, Bovespa 8.5%, TAIEX 1.8%, KSE 2.2%, KOSPI 3.1%, Mexico 1.6%, NBI 3.1%, SA40 1.9%, SET 3%, IGPA 3%, XBI 3.1%, ASX Materials 1.5% and BIST rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (19%), CBOT Cocoa (17%), Lumber (2.4%), Sugar (1.5%), Oats (1.6%), KBW Banks (2%), CAC (1.4%), China A50 (2.3%), DAX (1.6%), MIB (2.1%), NIFTY (2.5%), PSE (2%), PX (1.5%), Sensex (2.4%), SMI (2%), ASX Financials (1.9%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

January 25, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 16, 2026)

January 18, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus Chilean 2 year bond yield spread

Indian 10 year bond yield

S&P GSCI Index

Dutch TTF Gas

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

CSI 300 Index *

DAX Index *

S&P Small Cap 600

FTSE 250 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And Mexico’s IPC Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

The Japanese bond yield curve *

Platinum *

Gold in CAUD, AD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD

ZAR/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Helsinki’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

Philadelphia SOX Index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

LME Aluminium *

Nickel *

Silver in AUD & USD *

Shanghai Composite

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Russell 2000 *

Taiwan’s TAEIX *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Norway’s OBX Index

OMX Copenhagen Index *

OMX Stockholm Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Corn

CAD/AUD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/GBP

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

USD/CLP *

USD/ZAR *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chilean 2 year bond yield

USD/MXN

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased.

Except for Euro, 5’s and 10’s along with Indian and Korean 10’s.

Japanese 10’s have climbed for 5 weeks.

Japanese 5’s have not declined for 12 weeks.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation rates are close to mean reverting while also entering a new upward trend.

U.S. 5 year yields have started a new upward trend.

And the U.S. 5 year bond minus 3 month bill spread is nearly overbought.

Equities had another good week.

We are now seeing many more indices registering overbought quinella’s.

The FCATC, TAIEX, OMXC, PSE, STI and KOSPI are in 4 week winning streaks. The latter has climbed 19% over that time.

The FTSE 250, OMX-H, OMX-S, SMI, SOX and Vietnam’s VN Index have risen for  5 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 6 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA, Austria’s ATX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX have strung together 8 weeks of gains.

The Nasdaq Transports & Pakistan’s KSE have advanced for 10 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. KBW Bank and a biotech index dropped off the overbought list.

Commodities were mostly higher, again.

LNG, Lumber, Tin, Dutch Gas, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Copper, Palladium and Corn were the notable decliners.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 4 week winning streak.

Rubber fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 6 weeks.

Lumber is no longer oversold.

The latter broke its 7 week winning streak.

Nickel snapped a 4 week winning streak.

Orange Juice has advanced for 6 weeks, climbing 50% over that time.

Lithium, Coking Coal, Aluminium and Tin are all registering overbought quinella’s.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 5 weeks.

Rubber has climbed for 6 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 8 weeks.

While Natural Gas has fallen for 6 weeks, declining 38% over that time.

Currencies were quieter.

While the Aussie was firmer (ex ZAR) and the AUD/EUR is in a 4 week winning streak, many of the AUD pairs departed overbought territory.

Other notable changes this week is the Yen is less oversold.

The CAD rose.

The Euro was weaker.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks.

EUR/GBP has declined for 5 weeks.

EUR/USD is entering a new downward trend.

PHP/USD is in a 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 4 weeks.

The NZD/AUD rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 8 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Lean Hogs 3.5%, Heating Oil 4.7%, JKM LNG 11.1%, Lumber 6.5%, LNG in Yen 13.6%, Lithium Carbonate 5.7%, Tin 18.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.2%, Orange Juice 2.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, LME Tin 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 30%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 2.8%, Silver in AUD & USD 12.8%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in CAD 1.,9%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 1.9%, Rice 3.4%, AD02 1.6%, AEX 2.2%, BUX 5%, IDX 1.6%, EGX 3.6%, FCATC 2.5%, HSCEI 1.9%, Hang Seng 2.3%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2.1%, TAIEX 3.7%, KLSE 1.6%, Mexico 1.6%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, OBX 3.2%, OMXH 2%, OMXS 2.2%, PSE 1.8%, SA40 2%, SET 1.7%, SOX 3.8%, STI 2.2%, XFJ 1.9%, XJO 2.1%, XMJ 3.9%, XNJ 1.8%, XSO 2.1% and BIST rose 3.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Cocoa (5%), Copper (1.2%), Natural Gas (2.1%), Palladium (2.6%), Corn (4.7%), KBW Banks (1.7%), China A50 (2.2%), IBB (1.4%) and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%.

January 18, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)

January 4, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *

European 20 and 30 year bond yields

The Japanese bond yield curve

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

MYR/USD *

All World Developed ex USA index

Austria’s ATX Index

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

CNH/USD *

ZAR/USD

Poland’s WIG Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally rose.

U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.

Equities were mixed to mostly higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.

KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also mixed.

Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers. 

Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.

None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.

Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.

Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.

Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mostly weaker.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

CAD was lower.

CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.

EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.

THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.

January 4, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 26, 2025)

December 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Indian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread *

Australian Coking Coal *

Copper

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

ZAR/USD *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year bond yield

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Tin *

Aluminium (LME price) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s Bovespa

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield *

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD

AUD/IDR

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

THB/USD

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased except for Japan’s.

The Australian and Euro yield curve fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.

Brazilian and Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 6 weeks.

The U.S. 10Y minus U.S. 2Y spread eased and is no longer overbought.

While the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly oversold.

We have also seen some reversals.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread rose and broke a 8 weeks losing streak.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.

And U.S 3 month bill yields rose to snap a 5 week losing streak.

Equities traded higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE was climbed higher for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Transports, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 5 week winning streaks.

Italy’s MIB fell for the first time in 4 weeks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index fell and snapped a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were firmer.

Palm Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Coffee and Gold were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates was the sole notable decliner.

Platinum has soared 42% in the past 3 weeks.

Orange Juice has climbed 40% in the past 3 weeks.

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 35% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Cattle fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

The USD version has climbed for 5 weeks.

Newcastle Coal and Gasoil rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Heating Oil mean reverted.

JKM LNG rose and broke 4 weeks of loss.

Arabica coffee looks like changing direction of trend.

Lithium Carbonate is nearing overbought territory.

Uranium has climbed for 5 weeks.

Rice has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

And Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was mixed to firmer.

CAD/JPY an the GBP/JPY have climbed for 7 weeks.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

THB/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 5 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.4%, Cocoa 1.9%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Copper 6%, Arabica Coffee 2.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.4%, Lithium Carbonate 3.9%, Lithium Hydroxide 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.6%, Nickel 6.8%, Orange Juice 2.9%, Palladium 13.2%, Platinum 22.4%, Robusta Coffee 6.2%, Sugar 2.4%, Gasoil 2%, S&P GSCI 1.5%, CRB Index 1.*%, Silver in AUD 16.3%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.9%, Gold in GBP 3.5%, Gold in USD 4.5%, Gold in ZAR 3.8%, Corn 1.4%, Oats 3.4% Wheat 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed 1.5%, KBW Bank Index 1.8%, China A50 1.6%, FCATC 2%, Bovespa 1.5%, TAIEX 3.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 2%, IGPA 1.7%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.5%, XFJ 1.4%, XJO 1.6%, XMJ 3.4% and ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Israel’s TA35 (1.6%).

December 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 19, 2025)

December 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

European 5 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

ZAR/USD

Italy’s MIB Index

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Japanese 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

Aluminium (LME price)

Palladium

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 Index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Platinum

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brent Crude Oil

JKM LNG in Yen

Wheat

AUD/THB

BRL/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus the European 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again, again.

The Australian yield curve has climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks straight.

Kiwi 10 year yields fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread has fallen for 8 weeks.

And Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

Many indices appearing in last week’s overbought list, are no longer so.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Dow Jones Transports, Italy’s MIB, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 4 week winning streaks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

The Nasdaq Transportation Index fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

Chile’s IGPA fell and broke a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Orange Juice, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Uranium, Nickel and Lithium were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Coffee, Gases, Distillates, Soybeans and Cocoa dominated the losers category.

Platinum has soared 30% in the past week.

Orange Juice has climbed 33% in the past fortnight.

Heating Oil has fallen 10% over the last 2 weeks,

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 27% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide is no longer oversold.

Cattle, Tin and Silver (in USD) have risen for 4 weeks.

While Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

Newcastle Coal, Gasoil and Rice has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness continues and is seen in various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP across a 6 week losing streak.

The Aussie mostly fell and as a result, all of last weeks overbought readings are no longer so.

AUD/JPY and MYR/USD have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

CAD/JPY has climbed for 6 weeks.

The British Pound was higher.

The USD firmed enough to move certain pairs out of oversold territory.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.4%, Aluminium 3%, Copper 2.8%, Lithium Carbonate 7.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.1%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel 3.8%, Orange Juice 21.4%, Palladium 15.8%, Platinum 14.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf prices 1.6%, Uranium 3.8%, Silver in AUD 9.2%, Oats 4.2%, Gold in AUD 1.6%, ATX 2.6%, MIB 2.9%, IBEX 1.9%, KLSE 1.7%, FTSE 250 2%, PX 3.3%, SMI 2.2%, FTSE 100 2.6% and Vietnam rose 3.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (8.3%), Cocoa (6.9%), WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Palm Oil (2.9%), Heating Oil (3.3%), JKM LNG (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (7.8%), Natural Gas (3.1%), Gasoline (2.4%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Sugar (1.4%), Gasoil (3.5%), Soybeans (2.4%), EGX (2.6%), FCATC (2.3%), HSCEI (2%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), TAIEX (1.8%), KOSPI (3.5%), Nikkei 225 (2.6%), PSE (1.9%) and the ASX Material Index fell 1.8%.

December 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

What Now? – December 2025 Newsletter

December 18, 2025 Leave a comment

It has been some time since my July 17, 2025 newsletter.
I haven’t had anything new to say.
 
In that edition, along with the June and April 2025 versions, my main message was;

“I don’t (didn’t) see any structural problems in the global equity market”.
 
Those newsletters contained a host of analysis illustrating that the currency and bond markets told me that the “prospects for equities is OK” and we were not experiencing any peaks nor bubbles.

Since and during, I have been accumulating various equities and building portfolios for clients with the focus on “making money in any type of market conditions”.

I also wrote about the opportunities observed in the healthcare and transport industries, along with Chinese equities and commodities such as Palladium.

They have all performed well.

The latter has soared 70% since it was mentioned in my June 20, 2025 newsletter which is notably more than the 27% rise seen in the Gold price, over the same time.

And the markets have been very kind.

 
You may want to read the April 1, 2025 and April 10, 2025 newsletters where I was stating the case for “buying” rather than running and selling.

Since my April 10, 2025 newsletter, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and the S&P 500 have risen 23%, while the ASX 200 climbed 16%. Those returns should temper and place the giddiness of Gold’s advance within perspective.

While the price of various (and many other) stocks have doubled or more.

Those returns were achieved amidst the cited ‘noise’ and ‘concern’.

That’s why its important to ignore the noise or narrative and rely on the data, mathematics and signals.

This reminder remains intact.
 
 
Between April 2025 and now, I have taken profits in selected stocks and started positioning portfolios is a new series of stocks which seem to be unwanted and trading at much cheaper valuations than I’ve seen at any time over the past few years.
 

  • Today, I am discovering many investing ideas across the equity markets.
  • One doesn’t find such a range of opportunities when the market is forming a peak.
  • Inversely, when equity markets are at or near a peak, I can’t usually find anything worthy of investment.

 
Furthermore, there are so many high-quality companies which are attractively priced that investors don’t need to trawl through the gutters of speculation.  
 
My current areas of interest include a range of companies in software, online marketplaces, data and verification providers, brand name chemical companies, cloud accounting and some selected biotech’s.

Coming soon, I anticipate including energy and building materials companies to that list.
 
And I still don’t see any structural problems in the global equity markets.
 
 
Thank you for being a reader of my various opinions and views and I hope you find a nugget of value within them.

Also, thanks to those who forward to and share my newsletter with others.
 
Season’s Greetings to all and wishing you a prosperous and healthy 2026.
 

Until next time,

Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

.
In between newsletters, you can read my varied commentary across a range of markets and asset classes on my blog or Linkedin page.

Feel free to pass this onto your friends and professional associates. They are also welcome to contact me on +61 438 921 403 or send an email to rob@karriasset.com.au


“I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere” – Stanley Druckenmiller

“If you can’t accept volatility in the value of your assets, allow me to introduce you to a bank term deposit” – Me

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