Macro Extremes (week ending January 23, 2026)

January 25, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 3, 7, 10, 20 & 30 year bond yields

LNG priced in Yen

Natural Gas

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

COP/USD *

RMB

S&P Small Cap 600 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And the S&P 600

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields *

Aluminium (CBOT & LME)

Gold in AUD, GBP & ZAR

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

Shanghai Composite *

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

iShares Biotech Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Copenhagen’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 10 and 30 year bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

Nickel *

Platinum

Uranium

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR and USD

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index

U.S. 600 Mid Caps

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Copper/Gold Ratio

Corn

CHF/AUD

USD/CHF

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

USD/CLP *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose.

Aussie curve near overbought.

AU10-2 spread ner overbought too.

U.S. high yield ‘yields’ are falling.

IEF mean reverted.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year yields have risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yield is close to oversold, for first time since August 2025.

U.S. 3 year bond yield has advanced for 5 weeks, while the 3’s and 5’s mean reverted, upwards.

Equities bias was for lower prices.

We are seeing a growing list of indices registering overbought extremes.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 4 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, FCATC and STI are in 5 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 and the SOX have risen for 6 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 7 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 9 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE and Nasdaq Transports have soared for 11 straight weeks.

Copenhagen and PSE snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

Helsinki and Stockholm fell and broke 5 winning weeks.

And Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

Commodities were mixed but mostly higher, again.

Gases, Oil, Fuels, Shipping Rates, Nickel, Tin, Tin and Precious Metals were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Lumber, Sugar and Oats were the few decliners.

Heating Oil has risen for 4 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 5 week winning streak.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 6 weeks.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price and Orange Juice have risen for 7 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has soared for 8 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 9 weeks.

Newcastle Coal has mean reverted.

Baltic Dry Index rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Cocoa has sunk for 4 weeks but its collapse following its parabolic rise is more impressive.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is also in a 4 week losing streak.

Palladium rose but didn’t make a new high.

Rubber fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

While Natural Gas rose 70% for the week, snapping a 6 week losing streak and easily recovering its 38% loss over that time.

Currencies were busier, but mixed.

Many Aussie (risk-on) and Yen (risk-off) pairs are back in the list.

CAD was weaker.

AUD/EUR has risen for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 6 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 5 weeks.

PHP/USD rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 5 weeks.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 9 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.3%, Brent Crude 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 12.4%, WTI Crude 2.9%, Palm Oil 2.5%, Copper 2%, Heating Oil 5.3%, LNG in Yen 12.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.6%, LME Aluminium 3.1%, Natural Gas 70%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Palladium 11.3%, Platinum 18%, Gasoline 3.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, Tin 18.1%, S&P GSCI 3.8%, CRB Index 3.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.5%, Gasoil 3.2%, Uranium 4.4%, Silver in AUD 11.2%, Silver in USD 14.7%, Gold in AUD 5.2%, Gold in CAD 6.8%, Gold in CHF 5.4%, Gold in EUR 6.4%, Gold in GBP 6.4%, Gold in USD 8.5%, Gold in ZAR 6.3%, Wheat 2.2%, BUX 2.3%, EGX 7.2%, IBB 3.2%, Bovespa 8.5%, TAIEX 1.8%, KSE 2.2%, KOSPI 3.1%, Mexico 1.6%, NBI 3.1%, SA40 1.9%, SET 3%, IGPA 3%, XBI 3.1%, ASX Materials 1.5% and BIST rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (19%), CBOT Cocoa (17%), Lumber (2.4%), Sugar (1.5%), Oats (1.6%), KBW Banks (2%), CAC (1.4%), China A50 (2.3%), DAX (1.6%), MIB (2.1%), NIFTY (2.5%), PSE (2%), PX (1.5%), Sensex (2.4%), SMI (2%), ASX Financials (1.9%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

January 25, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 16, 2026)

January 18, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus Chilean 2 year bond yield spread

Indian 10 year bond yield

S&P GSCI Index

Dutch TTF Gas

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

CSI 300 Index *

DAX Index *

S&P Small Cap 600

FTSE 250 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And Mexico’s IPC Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

The Japanese bond yield curve *

Platinum *

Gold in CAUD, AD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD

ZAR/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Helsinki’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

Philadelphia SOX Index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

LME Aluminium *

Nickel *

Silver in AUD & USD *

Shanghai Composite

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Russell 2000 *

Taiwan’s TAEIX *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Norway’s OBX Index

OMX Copenhagen Index *

OMX Stockholm Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Corn

CAD/AUD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/GBP

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

USD/CLP *

USD/ZAR *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chilean 2 year bond yield

USD/MXN

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased.

Except for Euro, 5’s and 10’s along with Indian and Korean 10’s.

Japanese 10’s have climbed for 5 weeks.

Japanese 5’s have not declined for 12 weeks.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation rates are close to mean reverting while also entering a new upward trend.

U.S. 5 year yields have started a new upward trend.

And the U.S. 5 year bond minus 3 month bill spread is nearly overbought.

Equities had another good week.

We are now seeing many more indices registering overbought quinella’s.

The FCATC, TAIEX, OMXC, PSE, STI and KOSPI are in 4 week winning streaks. The latter has climbed 19% over that time.

The FTSE 250, OMX-H, OMX-S, SMI, SOX and Vietnam’s VN Index have risen for  5 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 6 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA, Austria’s ATX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX have strung together 8 weeks of gains.

The Nasdaq Transports & Pakistan’s KSE have advanced for 10 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. KBW Bank and a biotech index dropped off the overbought list.

Commodities were mostly higher, again.

LNG, Lumber, Tin, Dutch Gas, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Copper, Palladium and Corn were the notable decliners.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 4 week winning streak.

Rubber fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 6 weeks.

Lumber is no longer oversold.

The latter broke its 7 week winning streak.

Nickel snapped a 4 week winning streak.

Orange Juice has advanced for 6 weeks, climbing 50% over that time.

Lithium, Coking Coal, Aluminium and Tin are all registering overbought quinella’s.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 5 weeks.

Rubber has climbed for 6 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 8 weeks.

While Natural Gas has fallen for 6 weeks, declining 38% over that time.

Currencies were quieter.

While the Aussie was firmer (ex ZAR) and the AUD/EUR is in a 4 week winning streak, many of the AUD pairs departed overbought territory.

Other notable changes this week is the Yen is less oversold.

The CAD rose.

The Euro was weaker.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks.

EUR/GBP has declined for 5 weeks.

EUR/USD is entering a new downward trend.

PHP/USD is in a 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 4 weeks.

The NZD/AUD rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 8 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Lean Hogs 3.5%, Heating Oil 4.7%, JKM LNG 11.1%, Lumber 6.5%, LNG in Yen 13.6%, Lithium Carbonate 5.7%, Tin 18.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.2%, Orange Juice 2.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, LME Tin 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 30%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 2.8%, Silver in AUD & USD 12.8%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in CAD 1.,9%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 1.9%, Rice 3.4%, AD02 1.6%, AEX 2.2%, BUX 5%, IDX 1.6%, EGX 3.6%, FCATC 2.5%, HSCEI 1.9%, Hang Seng 2.3%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2.1%, TAIEX 3.7%, KLSE 1.6%, Mexico 1.6%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, OBX 3.2%, OMXH 2%, OMXS 2.2%, PSE 1.8%, SA40 2%, SET 1.7%, SOX 3.8%, STI 2.2%, XFJ 1.9%, XJO 2.1%, XMJ 3.9%, XNJ 1.8%, XSO 2.1% and BIST rose 3.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Cocoa (5%), Copper (1.2%), Natural Gas (2.1%), Palladium (2.6%), Corn (4.7%), KBW Banks (1.7%), China A50 (2.2%), IBB (1.4%) and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%.

January 18, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)

January 4, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *

European 20 and 30 year bond yields

The Japanese bond yield curve

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

MYR/USD *

All World Developed ex USA index

Austria’s ATX Index

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

CNH/USD *

ZAR/USD

Poland’s WIG Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally rose.

U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.

Equities were mixed to mostly higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.

KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also mixed.

Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers. 

Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.

None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.

Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.

Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.

Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mostly weaker.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

CAD was lower.

CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.

EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.

THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.

January 4, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 26, 2025)

December 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Indian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread *

Australian Coking Coal *

Copper

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

ZAR/USD *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year bond yield

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Tin *

Aluminium (LME price) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s Bovespa

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield *

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD

AUD/IDR

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

THB/USD

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased except for Japan’s.

The Australian and Euro yield curve fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.

Brazilian and Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 6 weeks.

The U.S. 10Y minus U.S. 2Y spread eased and is no longer overbought.

While the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly oversold.

We have also seen some reversals.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread rose and broke a 8 weeks losing streak.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.

And U.S 3 month bill yields rose to snap a 5 week losing streak.

Equities traded higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE was climbed higher for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Transports, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 5 week winning streaks.

Italy’s MIB fell for the first time in 4 weeks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index fell and snapped a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were firmer.

Palm Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Coffee and Gold were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates was the sole notable decliner.

Platinum has soared 42% in the past 3 weeks.

Orange Juice has climbed 40% in the past 3 weeks.

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 35% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Cattle fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

The USD version has climbed for 5 weeks.

Newcastle Coal and Gasoil rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Heating Oil mean reverted.

JKM LNG rose and broke 4 weeks of loss.

Arabica coffee looks like changing direction of trend.

Lithium Carbonate is nearing overbought territory.

Uranium has climbed for 5 weeks.

Rice has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

And Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was mixed to firmer.

CAD/JPY an the GBP/JPY have climbed for 7 weeks.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

THB/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 5 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.4%, Cocoa 1.9%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Copper 6%, Arabica Coffee 2.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.4%, Lithium Carbonate 3.9%, Lithium Hydroxide 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.6%, Nickel 6.8%, Orange Juice 2.9%, Palladium 13.2%, Platinum 22.4%, Robusta Coffee 6.2%, Sugar 2.4%, Gasoil 2%, S&P GSCI 1.5%, CRB Index 1.*%, Silver in AUD 16.3%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.9%, Gold in GBP 3.5%, Gold in USD 4.5%, Gold in ZAR 3.8%, Corn 1.4%, Oats 3.4% Wheat 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed 1.5%, KBW Bank Index 1.8%, China A50 1.6%, FCATC 2%, Bovespa 1.5%, TAIEX 3.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 2%, IGPA 1.7%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.5%, XFJ 1.4%, XJO 1.6%, XMJ 3.4% and ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Israel’s TA35 (1.6%).

December 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 19, 2025)

December 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

European 5 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

ZAR/USD

Italy’s MIB Index

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Japanese 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

Aluminium (LME price)

Palladium

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 Index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Platinum

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brent Crude Oil

JKM LNG in Yen

Wheat

AUD/THB

BRL/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus the European 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again, again.

The Australian yield curve has climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks straight.

Kiwi 10 year yields fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread has fallen for 8 weeks.

And Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

Many indices appearing in last week’s overbought list, are no longer so.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Dow Jones Transports, Italy’s MIB, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 4 week winning streaks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

The Nasdaq Transportation Index fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

Chile’s IGPA fell and broke a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Orange Juice, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Uranium, Nickel and Lithium were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Coffee, Gases, Distillates, Soybeans and Cocoa dominated the losers category.

Platinum has soared 30% in the past week.

Orange Juice has climbed 33% in the past fortnight.

Heating Oil has fallen 10% over the last 2 weeks,

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 27% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide is no longer oversold.

Cattle, Tin and Silver (in USD) have risen for 4 weeks.

While Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

Newcastle Coal, Gasoil and Rice has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness continues and is seen in various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP across a 6 week losing streak.

The Aussie mostly fell and as a result, all of last weeks overbought readings are no longer so.

AUD/JPY and MYR/USD have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

CAD/JPY has climbed for 6 weeks.

The British Pound was higher.

The USD firmed enough to move certain pairs out of oversold territory.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.4%, Aluminium 3%, Copper 2.8%, Lithium Carbonate 7.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.1%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel 3.8%, Orange Juice 21.4%, Palladium 15.8%, Platinum 14.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf prices 1.6%, Uranium 3.8%, Silver in AUD 9.2%, Oats 4.2%, Gold in AUD 1.6%, ATX 2.6%, MIB 2.9%, IBEX 1.9%, KLSE 1.7%, FTSE 250 2%, PX 3.3%, SMI 2.2%, FTSE 100 2.6% and Vietnam rose 3.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (8.3%), Cocoa (6.9%), WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Palm Oil (2.9%), Heating Oil (3.3%), JKM LNG (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (7.8%), Natural Gas (3.1%), Gasoline (2.4%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Sugar (1.4%), Gasoil (3.5%), Soybeans (2.4%), EGX (2.6%), FCATC (2.3%), HSCEI (2%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), TAIEX (1.8%), KOSPI (3.5%), Nikkei 225 (2.6%), PSE (1.9%) and the ASX Material Index fell 1.8%.

December 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

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What Now? – December 2025 Newsletter

December 18, 2025 Leave a comment

It has been some time since my July 17, 2025 newsletter.
I haven’t had anything new to say.
 
In that edition, along with the June and April 2025 versions, my main message was;

“I don’t (didn’t) see any structural problems in the global equity market”.
 
Those newsletters contained a host of analysis illustrating that the currency and bond markets told me that the “prospects for equities is OK” and we were not experiencing any peaks nor bubbles.

Since and during, I have been accumulating various equities and building portfolios for clients with the focus on “making money in any type of market conditions”.

I also wrote about the opportunities observed in the healthcare and transport industries, along with Chinese equities and commodities such as Palladium.

They have all performed well.

The latter has soared 70% since it was mentioned in my June 20, 2025 newsletter which is notably more than the 27% rise seen in the Gold price, over the same time.

And the markets have been very kind.

 
You may want to read the April 1, 2025 and April 10, 2025 newsletters where I was stating the case for “buying” rather than running and selling.

Since my April 10, 2025 newsletter, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and the S&P 500 have risen 23%, while the ASX 200 climbed 16%. Those returns should temper and place the giddiness of Gold’s advance within perspective.

While the price of various (and many other) stocks have doubled or more.

Those returns were achieved amidst the cited ‘noise’ and ‘concern’.

That’s why its important to ignore the noise or narrative and rely on the data, mathematics and signals.

This reminder remains intact.
 
 
Between April 2025 and now, I have taken profits in selected stocks and started positioning portfolios is a new series of stocks which seem to be unwanted and trading at much cheaper valuations than I’ve seen at any time over the past few years.
 

  • Today, I am discovering many investing ideas across the equity markets.
  • One doesn’t find such a range of opportunities when the market is forming a peak.
  • Inversely, when equity markets are at or near a peak, I can’t usually find anything worthy of investment.

 
Furthermore, there are so many high-quality companies which are attractively priced that investors don’t need to trawl through the gutters of speculation.  
 
My current areas of interest include a range of companies in software, online marketplaces, data and verification providers, brand name chemical companies, cloud accounting and some selected biotech’s.

Coming soon, I anticipate including energy and building materials companies to that list.
 
And I still don’t see any structural problems in the global equity markets.
 
 
Thank you for being a reader of my various opinions and views and I hope you find a nugget of value within them.

Also, thanks to those who forward to and share my newsletter with others.
 
Season’s Greetings to all and wishing you a prosperous and healthy 2026.
 

Until next time,

Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

.
In between newsletters, you can read my varied commentary across a range of markets and asset classes on my blog or Linkedin page.

Feel free to pass this onto your friends and professional associates. They are also welcome to contact me on +61 438 921 403 or send an email to rob@karriasset.com.au


“I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere” – Stanley Druckenmiller

“If you can’t accept volatility in the value of your assets, allow me to introduce you to a bank term deposit” – Me

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Macro Extremes (week ending December 12, 2025)

December 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greece, Indian, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

AUD/CHF *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

THB/USD

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P MidCap 400

Copenhagen’s OMX

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Euro bond yield curve

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver in AUD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX

Brazil’s BOVESPA

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The S&P Biotech ETF *

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Silver in USD *

AUD/INR *

MYR/USD*

USD/INR *

U.S. KBW Bank Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

Lithium Hydroxide *

Dutch TTF Gas *

CHF/AUD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Urea (U.S. gulf)

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for short dated U.S. paper and the British yield curve.

Swiss 10’s soared.

A bunch of new bond yields appear in this weeks list.

The Australian, Euro and Japanese yield curves are overbought.

Kiwi 10 year yields have climbed for 8 weeks,

Whilst Japanese 10 year yield fell slightly, which ends its 7 week rising streak.

Turkish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks, as have U.S. 3 month bills.

And the U.S. 2 year bond is yielding less than the U.S. 3 month bill.

Equities had a slightly higher bias.

More indices joined the overbought extreme list.

While most indices closed either +/- 1% from last week but intra-week there were gyrations.

Brazil’s Bovespa returns overbought territory.

U.S. Regional Bank Index and the Nasdaq Transportation Index have risen for 4 weeks.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.

Chile’s IGPA is in a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Cocoa, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases and Distillates, Oats and Palm Oil dominated the losers category.

Natural Gas tanked 22% and erased half of the 39% gain seen in the previous 7 week winning streak.

The Baltic Dry Index also fell hard, wiping 19% of the 34% seen in the 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Rice is in a 4 week losing streak.

Wheat has slumped for 6 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio looks like it’s about to change direction in trend.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 5 week losing streak.

The Aussie fell except against the INR, JPY and USD.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie rose.

Euro as stronger, reversing last weeks weakness.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cocoa 10.2%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 3.4%, Lithium Carbonate 1.9%, Tin 3.4%, Orange Juice 12%, Palladium 2.7%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 2%, Uranium 2.6%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 6.1%, Gold rose between 1.5% – 2.4% across various currencies, All Word Developed ex USA 1%, KBW Banks 3.6%, DJ Transports 1.9%, BOVESPA 2.2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.2%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, KOSPI 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, PSE 1.5%, PX 1.7%, S&P 600 2%, TA35 3.6%, Nasdaq Transports 2.3%, WIG 3.5%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.8% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.7%), Brent Crude (4.1%), Baltic Dry Index (19.1%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Palm Oil (3.2%), Copper (1.9%), Heating Oil (7%), JKM LNG (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.8%), Newcastle Coal (2.4%), Natural Gas (22.2%), Nickel (2.5%), Gasoline (4.5%), Robusta (4%), S&P GSCI (3.4%), CRB Index (2.5%), Gasoil (6.9%), Oats (7.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), HSCEI (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.9%), SET (1.5%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (0.6%) and Vietnam fell 5.4%.

December 14, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 5, 2025)

December 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Norwegian 10 year bond yields

Euro 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF

AUD/EUR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Transports

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY

CNH/USD

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Japanese government bond yield curve *

Swedish 10 year government bond yields

Baltic Dry Index *

Tin

MYR/USD*

USD/INR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield

CHF/AUD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bonds

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Canadian 10’s soared.

The whole of the Australian and Japanese yield curve is overbought and the Eurozone is nearly so.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 7 weeks,

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year yield spread has fallen for 6 weeks.

Equities moved higher, again.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Brazil’s Bovespa left overbought territory.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF have risen for 4 weeks.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed.

Shipping Rates, Silver Cocoa, Tin, Cattle and Natural Gas were the notable gainers. 

Lithium, Orange Juice, Dutch TTF Gas, Sugar, Soybeans and Coffee dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans fell and broke a 7 week winning streak.

Natural Gas have risen for 7 weeks and has soared 39% over that time.

Cattle & Palm Oil rose enough to leave their oversold extremes.

Richards Bay Coal is close to doing the same.

The Baltic Dry Index and Iron Ore prices have risen for 5 weeks.

The former has soared 34%in those 5 weeks.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel have declined for 4 weeks.

And Wheat and U.S. Gulf Urea prices have slumped for 5 weeks.

Currencies were orderly.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 4 week losing streak.

The Aussie rose, resulting in a few overbought results.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.8%, Aluminium 2.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.2%, Baltic Dry Index 6.5%, Cocoa 3.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2.6%, Copper 3.6%, Heating Oil 2.6%, Cattle 4.3%, Tin 6%, Natural Gas 9%, SOGSCI 1.7%, Silver in USD 3.5%, Silver in AUD 2.1%, ATX 1.4%, BKX 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, EGX 3.7%, IBEX 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.8%, KOSPI 4.4%, Helsinki 1.7%, Stockholm 1.4%, SA40 1.5%, SOX 3.8%, TA35 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.7%, Vietnam 3% and ASX Materials Index rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

JKM (1.9%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), LNG in Yen (5.8%),Lithium Carbonate (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (5%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Orange Juice (6.6%), Platinum (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (5.9%), Sugar (2.7%), Sugar #16 (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (4.3%), Gold in AUD (1.9%), Gold in CAD (1.7%), Gold in ZAR (1.6%), Oats (2.8%), Soybeans (2.9%), IBB (1.5%), WIG (1.7%) and ASX Industrials Index fell 1.6%.

December 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

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Macro Extremes (week ending November 28, 2025)

November 30, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Baltic Dry Index

Tin

CAD/JPY *

CLP/USD

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 year government bond yield

Platinum

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Brazil’s Bovespa equity index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Korean and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

British 2 and 3 year bind yields

Polish 10 year government bond yield

Palm Oil

Cattle *

Dutch TTF Gas

And the ASX 200 equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose….

Except for those found in France, Spain and Great Britain.

The Australain 2 year bond yield is nearly overbought.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 6 weeks,

While Czech 10 year yields fell and broke their 5 week advance.

Equities had a terrific week.

Bounces were seen everywhere.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 7 week winning streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index rose and erased all of last week’s decline.

While the FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their 4 week losing streaks.

Commodities mostly firmed.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, the precious metals, Orange Juice and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Heating Oil, LNG, Rice, Gasoil and Dutch TTF Gas dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans are in a 7 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea along with Wheat prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Natural Gas have risen for 6 weeks and has soared 30% over that time.

Cocoa and Lumber rose and broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice soared 10% and halted a 4 week decline.

Cattle rose and ended its 6 week losing streak.

And Lean Hogs rose 4% and snapped an 8 week slump.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

The Yen’s weakness sees it various pairs in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie rose.

The Euro was mixed.

The USD was lower,

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is approaching oversold levels.

And Bitcoin (in USD) rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richard Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 3.5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, Cocoa 6.7%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.3%, Tin 2.6%, Natural Gas 3.1%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 9.6%, Palladium 5.9%, Plarinum 10.6%, Sugar 2.9%, SPGSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2%, Silver in AUD 11.1%, Silver in USD 12.7%, Gold rose between 2%-4% in various currencies, Corn 2%, Oats 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 1.6%, All World Developed ex USA 3.4%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 4.6%, BKX 4.1%, BUX 2.1%, CAC 1.8%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, FCATC 4.7%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IBB 3.8%, IBEX 3.5%, Bovespa 2.8%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.6%, Russell 2000 5.6%, TAIEX 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.2%, KSE 2.8%, Kospi 1.9%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 4%, Mexico 2.8%, NBI Biotech ETF 3.8%, Nasdaq 100 4.9%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 3%, Helsinki 2.7%, Stockholm 3.3%, PX 2.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 9.7%, IGPA 3%, S&P 500 3.7%, Nasdaq Transports 4.8%, TSX 4.1%, FTSE 100 1.9%, Vietnam 2.2%, WIG 2.7%, XBI 5.6%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5%, ASX Industrials 4.2% and the ASX Small Caps rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Heating Oil (3.8%), JKM LNG (3.3%), LNG in Yen (8%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Sugar #16 (1.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (3.7%) and Rice fell 3.5%.

November 30, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 24, 2025)

October 26, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Aluminium *

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

AEX

FTSE 250

Nifty

Sensex

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME)

Platinum

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Finland’s OMXH

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch & Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

U.S. 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF *

EUR/CHF *

JPY/CAD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Indonesian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate

Richards Bay Coal *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

Sugar

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell except for EU, U.S. and Japanese versions.

European 10’s rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate remains near being oversold even it moved from 2.3% to 2.4% during the week.

Portuguese and U.S, 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks as have U.S. 20’s.

U.S. 30’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

Austrian 10’s rose and broke 5 weeks of decline

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a good week.

We saw Chinese, British, Nasdaq Composite and the 100 return to overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI, Nifty, Sensex and Finland’s OMXH are in a 4 week winning streak.
The biotech indices have risen for 6 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 7 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 9 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Commodities were active, again.

Aluminium, Cocoa, Copper, Oils, Gases and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Lumber, Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Sugar, Rice, Silver and Gold dominated the losers category. 

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) fell and snapped a 9 week winning streak.

Cattle and Palladium fell enough to leave overbought territory.

Crude Oil bounces and easily erased the 5% decline of the previous fortnight.

Sugar registers an oversold quinella.

Oats rose and snapped its 4 weeks of decline.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 8 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list and many currencies reversing last week’s travel.

The Aussie and Loonie rose.

The Swissie as weaker.

Euro firmed.

The Yen fell.

And the Thai Baht rose against the USD to break 5 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 7.6%, Cocoa 7.2%, WTI Crude Oil 7.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 10.2%, Arabica Coffee 1.4%, LNG in Yen 2.3%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.5%, Orange Juice 3.6%, Gasoline 4.9%, Tin 2.7%, S&P GSCI 3.6%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 12.5%, Oats 4.8%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai 2.9%, CSI 300 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 1.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.6%, Cjina A50 3.6%, IDX 4.5%, DAX 1.7%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, FCATC 5.8%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 3.9%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3%, Russell 2000 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 5.1%, FTSE 250 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, Helsinki 5.5%, Stockholm 3.2%, SET 3.1%, SOX 2,9%, S&P 500 1.9%, STI 2.2%, WIG 3.4%, BIST 7.2% and the FTSE 100 rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index 3.8%), Palm Oil (2%), Lumber (7%), Cattle (3.3%), Palladium (2.7%), Sugar 3.4%, Silver in AUD (6.5%), Silver in USD (6.3%), Gold in AUD (3.6%), Gold in CAD (3.4%), Gold in CHF (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (2.5%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Gold in ZAR (5.8%), Rice (3.8%), PSE (1.7%), RUS10 (6.3%), VN Index (2.8%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 2%.

October 26, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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