Macro Extremes (week ending August 9, 2024)

August 11, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian, Danish and Finnish 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & IEF *

SHY & TLT *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread *

Gold Volatility Index

Dutch TTF Gas

Gold in AUD

CHF/AUD *

CHF/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/AUD

EUR/USD

THB/USD *

USD/CAD *

USD/DKK

USD/INR

USD/MXN

Overbought (RSI > 70)

None

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

MYR/USD *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

German 2, 5 and 10 year bond yields

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

5 year Japanese bond yields

10 year Austrian, Swiss, Czech, Spanish, South Korean, Dutch, Norwegian, New Zealand, Polish, Portuguese and Swedish government bond yields.

U.S. 2, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year government bond yields

TBT & TBX *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the 5 year break-even inflation rate *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the 3 month break-even inflation rate *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the 10 year break-even inflation rate *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate *

Bloomberg Commodity Index

S&P GSCI Index

Brent Crude Oil

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB *

CAD/EUR *

EUR/JPY 

GBP/JPY

USD/CHF

DXY (USD) Index

Chile’s IPSA Index

Tel Aviv 35

Poland’s WIG

ASX Materials 

AEX

Austria’s ATX

CAC

DAX 

MIB *

IBEX

KOSPI

S&P MidCap 400

Copenhagen 

Helsinki

Stockholm

Russell 2000 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Cotton *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Shanghai Rebar *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Corn *

Soybeans *

BRL/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian Coking Coal

China Coking Coal

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, which broke many declining streaks.

The exception were Finnish, Japanese, Chilean and Brazilian yields.

The misnomer in this weeks edition is that intra-week yields did trade to oversold extremes before reversing higher and many closing above last weeks close.

U.S. inflation breakeven inflation rates also rose.

The Copper/Gold ratio is in a 5 week losing streak.

And we are seeing divergence in Chilean yields. The 2 year yield has risen for 8 straight weeks while the 10 year yield has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Amazingly, most equity indices closed either flat or rose for the week.

There are no equity indices in overbought territory this week, however of the many appearing in the oversold category, did so due to their intra-week swoons.

The major Indian indices are no longer overbought.

Australian indices were amongst the rare losers for the week as were selected Asian markets.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4% for the week which was enough to break its 4 week long streak.

The KOSPI is in a 5 week losing streaks.

And the Nikkei 225 has declined 17% over the past 4 weeks, keeping it in a 4 week losing streak.

Commodities were mixed, although generally posting gains which is change of a few weeks of broader weakness.

Oil, Cocoa, Lumber Thermal (again) Tin, Gasoline and Gases had a good week.

All things steel related are in a trough.

Coking Coal prices are unloved.

Silver, Grains, Copper, Platinum and Lean Hogs were weaker.

I’m very happy to see cheaper bacon prices.

Sugar broke its 5 week losing streak.

Copper and Iron Ore prices have fallen for 5 and 6 straight weeks, respectively.

Copper has declined 15% over the past 6 weeks.

While Crude Oil and Palladium broke their 4 week losing streaks.

Worthy of note, is the forward contract month for Henry Hub Natural Gas bounced out of oversold territory.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 56 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

The Aussie was mostly higher thus breaking its losing streak against most currencies.

The anomaly is its 4 week losing streak versus the Loonie.

The ‘mid-week’ Aussie strength was commensurate with the rising fortunes for equities and an analogy for ‘risk-on’.

In the meantime, the AUD mean reverted against the Yen.

The Loonie saw strength and as a result it broke its 6 week losing streak agains the Euro.

In fact, many streaks were broken this week.

The British Pound fell and extended its losing streak against the USD to 4 weeks.

Brazil’s Real bounced out its stay in oversold land

The GBP/JPY have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

And as pre-empted in last weeks edition, the DXY Index did trade to 2.5 standard deviations below its 20 week average.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 24.2%, WTI Crude Oil 4.5%, Coffee 2.5%, Lumber 4.2%, JKM LNG 3.2%, Tin 2.5%, Newcastle Coal 3.3%, Natural Gas 9%, Palladium 1.6%, Gasoline 3.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Sugar 2.1%, LME Tin 3.9%, S&P GSCI 1.7%, CRB 2.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.2%, Brent Crude 3%, BOVESPA 3.8%, Mexico 1.6% and Philadelphia’s SOX Index rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (5.5%), China Coking Coal (5.4%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), Copper (2.7%), Lithium (2%), Platinum (3.9%), Silver in AUD (4.8%), Silver in USD (3.9%), Corn (2.5%), Oats (2%), Soybeans (2.4%), Egypt (2.1%), KRE Regional Bank Index (1.9%), KOSPI (3.3%), Nikkei 225 (2.5%), Russell 2000 (1.4%), SENSEX (1.6%), Strait Times (3.5%), WIG (2.5%), ASX Financials (2.6%), ASX 200 (2.1%), ASX Materials (2.5%), ASX Small Caps (3.5%) and Turkiye’s BIST fell 5.4%.

August 11, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 19, 2024)

July 21, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread *

GBP/EUR

GBP/USD *

KBW Bank Index

DJ Industrials *

S&P Small Cap 600 Index

Russell 2000 *

KRE Regional Bank Index *

S&P MidCap 400 Index

Nasdaq Biotechnology Index *

Toronto’s TSX

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 index

And Australia’s ASX 200

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yields *

Robusta Coffee *

Hungary’s BUX *

Pakistan’s KSE *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

And Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 2 year government bond yield 

New Zealand and Swedish 10 year government bond yield

CAD/GBP *

CAD/EUR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Cotton

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Corn *

BRL/USD

And the Chinese RMB *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Soybeans *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed. 

Most of the European yields fell while yields in the America’s rose…..and many of them took a break from their fortnightly trends.  

Except for the Belgium, Danish and Finnish 10’s.

The Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread broke its 5 consecutive weeks of advance.

And the Chilean 2’s are in a 5 week winning streak.

Equities were mostly lower.

The prominent risers for the week were U.S. banks, U.S. Transports and U.S. small and mid caps.

Last week’s edition alerted readers to the outside bullish outside reversal week performed by the  Dow Jones Transports and Nasdaq Transports Indices. They rose impressively this past week.

The rotation from large caps into the smaller and mid cap companies continued.

China’s CSI 300 has risen 3% over the past fortnight.

While Indonesia’s IDX 30 has a 5 week winning streak intact and Philippine’s PSE has climbed for 4 straight weeks.

Indonesia’s main index has climbed 10% over the past 5 weeks and the U.S. KRE Regional Banks index has risen 20% over the same time.

And the DAX broke its 4 week winning streak.

Commodities continued its bias for lower prices.

Hogs, Lumber and oats were amongst the few winners.

Lean Hogs climbed 6%, nearly halving the 15% decline seen over the previous 13 weeks.

The losers were much more widespread, with Aluminium, Copper, Coking Coal, Oil, Gases, Grains, the PGM’s and Nickel.

Cocoa, Tin, Silver also joined the notable declining brigade.

Cotton is back in oversold territory.

Natural Gas has posted a 34% loss during the previous 5 weeks.

Heating Oil has fallen 7% in the past fortnight.

Aluminium has sunk 14% over the past 8 weeks.

Soybeans have declined for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 53 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

The Aussie and the Loonie were both weaker

The anomaly was the CAD rising against the AUD and breaking 5 consecutive weeks of declines.

Inversely, it broke its 5 week winning streak against the USD.

Some CAD pairs appear in this week’s list of extremes.

The AUD broke its 4 week rising streak against all, except versus the Kiwi.  

And the British Pound continues to hold up.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Lean Hogs 6.3%, Lumber 3.2%, LNG in Yen 3.1%, Newcastle Coal 2.7%, Oats 2.4%, CSI 300 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.3%, Budapest 1%, DJ Transports 1.7%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, Russell 2000 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 7.5%, PSE 2.2% and the Nasdaq Transports rose 2.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.4%), Aluminium (5.2%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.2%), Baltic Dry Index (4.8%), Cocoa (7.6%), China Coking Coal (4.4%), WTI Crude Oil (2.7%), Copper (7.8%), Heating Oil (3.4%), Coffee (4.2%), Lithium (2.4%), Tin (8%), Natural Gas (8.6%), Nickel (3%), Orange Juice (3.7%), Palladium (7.2%), Platinum (3.9%), Gasoline (3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Sugar (2.8%), SPGSCI (2.9%), Brent Crude Oil (2.8%), Gasoil (3.1%), Uranium (2.4%), Silver in AUD (3.7%), Silver in USD (5%), Corn (2.9%), Rice (2.7%), Soybeans (2.8%), All Developed World ex USA (2.1%), AEX 4%, DAX (3.1%), HSCEI (5.6%), Hang Seng (4.8%), IBEX (1.5%), Nasdaq Composite (3.7%), KOSPI (2.2%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (4%), Nikkei 225 (2.8%), Copenhagen (2.9%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (2.3%), South Africa (2.4%), SOX (8.8%), S&P 500 (2%), Straits Times (1.4%), TAEIX (4.4%) and the S&P Materials Index fell 2.2%.

July 21, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 12, 2024)

July 14, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate (YoY)

GBP/EUR

GBP/USD

KOSPI *

Nikkei 225

Russell 2000

Toronto’s TSX

And the Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 index

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yields

Coffee – both Arabica and Robusta *

GBP/JPY

Netherlands AEX *

Hungary’s BUX *

Pakistan’s KSE *

Nasdaq Composite * 

Nasdaq 100 *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

S&P 500 *

U.S. Regional Banks Index

Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

South Korean 10 year government bond yield 

Soybeans 

CAD/GBP

Shanghai Composite Index *

China’s CSI 300 Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

And the Chinese RMB *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Corn *

Russia’s MOEX equity index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell. Most of them for the 2nd consecutive week.

Except for the Belgium, Danish and Finnish 10’s.

The Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Inversely, the U.S.10Y minus Aussie 10’s spread have fallen for 5 weeks.

Chilean 2’s are in a 4 week winning streak.

Czech 10’s have fallen fro 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year bond yields are not overbought anymore

And IEF is in the early stages of an upward trend.

Equities were mostly higher, again !

For example, the Nasdaq Composite has risen for 11 out of the past 12 weeks.

The S&P 500 has climbed higher for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

There was a stunning rotation late in the week, from large caps into the smaller and mid cap companies.

China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose and broke their 7 week losing streak and the KOSPI broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.

The DAX is in a 4 week winning streak as is Indonesia’s IDX 30.

Indonesia’s main index has climbed 9.5% over the past 4 weeks.

The Developed World equities index ex USA along with the FTSE 250 have risen 4.4% over the past fortnight.

And Sweden’s OMX30 along with the Dow Jones Transports and Nasdaq Transports Index had bullish outside reversal weeks.

Commodities were mixed, although the bias was towards weakness, again.

Again, Cocoa, Coffee, Tin, Orange Juice and Urea were the prominent winners for the week.

Aluminium, Coal, Oil, Gases, Grains, PGM’s, Nickel and Cattle were the largest losers.

WTI Crude, Brent Crude, gasoline and Heating Oil both broke their 4 week winning streaks.

Cotton moved out of oversold territory.

Lean Hogs have slumped for 10 of the past 12 weeks, falling 15% over that time.

Natural Gas broke its 4 week losing streak, by rising 0.4% for the week. Natural Gas has posted a 26% loss during the previous 4 weeks.

Palladium fell 7%, shaving half off the 15% advance seen in the previous 3 weeks.

Lumber showed some spirit although it has fallen for 11 weeks of the past 16 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 52 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

The Yen bounced and the extremes seen amongst its pairs are not there this week.

The AUD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks against the CAD, INR, NZD and USD, 

While it broke its trending streaks against the JPY, EUR, SGD and THB.

The Canadian Dollar was mostly weaker.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for 5 weeks, while the Loonie against the USD has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

And strength in the British Pound continue. 

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 1.6%, Cocoa 6%, Arabica Coffee 8.7%, Tin 4.5%, Orange Juice 3.8%, Robusta Coffee 10.3%, Urea Middle East 1.7%, Developed World equities index ex USA 2.3%, KBW Bank Index 4.3%, DAX 1.5%, DJ Industrials 1.7%, DJ Transports 1.6%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.8%, IBEX 2.1%, BOVESPA 2.1%, S&P SmallCap 600 5.5%, Russell 2000 6.1%, KRE Regional Banks 8.7%, FTSE 250 2%, S&P MidCap 4.4%, Mexico 5%, Nasdaq Biotech 6.8%, Stockholm 2.9%, Philippines PSE 2.4%, SET 1.5%, SMI 3%, SOX 2,1%, STI 2.6%, TAEIX 1.5%, TSX 2.8%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 1.9%, ASX Small Caps 2.6%, BIST 2.2% and Israel’s TA35 rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (2.8%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.7%), China Coking Coal (3%), Heating Oil (3.6%), HRC (1.5%), Cattle (2.2%), JKM in Yen (5.2%), Nickel (3.1%), Palladium (6.5%), Platinum (3.1%), Gasoline (1.7%), Biodiesel (3.4%), Sugar (4.7%), S&P GSCI (2.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.1%), Brent Crude (2.2%), Gasoil (3.1%), Silver in AUD (1.9%), MOEX (5.6%), Corn (2.1%), Soybean (5.7%) and Wheat fell 6.7%.

July 14, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 5, 2024)

July 7, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread

KOSPI

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Biodiesel *

Robusta Coffee

AUD/JPY

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY *

USD/JPY

Netherlands AEX *

Hungary’s BUX *

Pakistan’s KSE *

Nasdaq Composite * 

Nasdaq 100 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 *

Turkiye’s BIST 100

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Shanghai Composite Index

China’s CSI 300 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Cotton

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Corn *

And the Chinese RMB *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields changed course and fell,

Except for the German, Swedish, Norwegian, Swiss and Polish 10’s, along with the Euro curve.

In fact, the Swiss 10’s yield broke their 4 consecutive weeks of decline. 

Furthermore, all of the bond yields and spreads which appeared last week are no longer so.

Against the yield trend, the Copper/Gold ratio bounced,

And the U.S. 2’s and 5’s yield had bearish outside reversal weeks.

Equities saw strength, again…..again….mostly !

For example, the Nasdaq Composite has risen for 10 out of the past 11 weeks, so much so to render it trading at 36% above its 200 week moving average.

China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks, while the KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks

Chile’s IGPA broke its 5 weeks of declines and Thailand’s SET broke its 6 week losing streak

Indonesia’s main index has climbed 8.2% over the past 3 weeks.

And the FTSE 250 and Vietnam’s VN Index both had bullish outside reversal weeks.

Commodities were mostly firmer, which is a change against the past weeks of weaker bias.

Coking Coal, Copper, Oil and Distillates, Tin, Precious Metals Orange Juice and Coffee featured amongst those who had a terrific week.

Gases, Urea, Rice and Lithium were the biggest losers for the week.

WTI Crude, Brent Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline are in a 4 week winning streak.

Lean Hogs have slumped for 9 of the past 11 weeks, falling 14% over that time.

Lumber and Natural Gas (NG) prices have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.  NG has posted a 26% loss during this streak.

The Copper/Gold Ratio bounced out of its 6 week losing streak.

Palladium has risen 15% over the past 3 weeks.

Soybeans and Wheat both broke their 5 straight weeks of declines.

Lumber has fallen for 11 weeks of the past 15 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 51 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

Many currencies no longer appearing in extreme categories.

The AUD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks against the JPY, EUR, CAD, SGD, THB and USD.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks, while the Loonie against the USD has climbed for 4 straight weeks.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY Index) fell 1%, breaking its 4 week winning streak.

The Euro was mixed

The British Pound was stronger in a week when the United Kingdom held a general election.

And the Yen was weak, again.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 7.6%, China Coking Coal 7.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2%, Copper 5.9%, Heating Oil 2.7%, Tin 3.3%, Newcastle Coal 2.8%, Orange Juice 4.9%, Palladium 6.3%, Platinum 3.2%, Robusta Coffee 4.3%, SPGSCI 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.3%, Gasoil 2.8%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 7.1%, Gold in CAD and CHF 2.5%, Gold in USD 2.8%, Gold in ZAR 3.1%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 3%, All World ex USA 2.1%, ATX 2.8%, CAC 2.6%, Egypt 2.2%, MIB 2.5%, BOVESPA 1.9%, IDX 2.1%, Nasdaq Composite 3.5%, KOSPI 2.3%, FTSE 250 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 3.6%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, SOX 3.4%, S&P 500 2%, STI 2.3%, TAIEX 2.3%, Vietnam 3%, ASX Materials 3.3%, BIST 1.9% and Israel’s TA25 rose 2.1%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (4.1%), Cotton (2.4%), Lithium (3.6%), Natural Gas (10.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.1%),Urea U.S. Gulf (4.2%), Rice (5.4%), and the KRE Regional Banks Index fell 2.4%.

July 7, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 28, 2024)

June 30, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread

AUD/JPY

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Biodiesel *

GBP/JPY *

Amsterdam’s AEX *

Budapest

Karachi’s KSE *

Nasdaq Composite * 

Nasdaq 100 *

S&P 500 *

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

USD/BRL *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year divided by the Australian 10 year government bond yield 

Lean Hogs

COP/USD

EUR/AUD

And Russia’s MOEX

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yield 

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Shanghai Rebar

JPY/USD

JPY/AUD

RMB

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

BRL/USD

Corn

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again, 

Except for the Swiss, Swedish, Finnish and Danish 10’s.

The yield in the Swiss 10’s have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Other than the Chinese and Brazilian 10’s lodging into opposite end of extreme categories, we have interesting bond spreads appearing this week.

And we the U.S. 10-2 yield curve is nearing an oversold extreme.

U.S. 5 & 10 year breakeven inflation rates bounced off their oversold lows.

And Chilean 2 year yields broke their 8 consecutive weeks of declines, In last week’s note, I commented that their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

Equities saw strength, again.

As they bounced, so did many of last week’s oversold entrants.

Other extended their losing streaks to 6 consecutive weeks, among them China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite along with Thailand’s SET.

Chile has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

While China’s A50, Chile’s IPSA and Torontos’ TSX broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 1.2% and is not overbought anymore.

The CAC-40 had a bearish outside reversal week.

While the KOSPI has risen for 4 straight weeks and Indonesia’s main index has climbed 6% over the past fortnight.

Commodities were mixed, again, with a bias towards weakness. Again.

Once again, the weakness won’t show up in the commodities indices due to the positive skew weighting afforded to the Crude Oil weightings.

Although the Bloomberg Commodity Index has decline for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Palladium, Sugar and Oats were amongst the few winners.

Coking Coal, Cocoa, Natural Gas and Corn were amongst the notable losers, again.

Lean Hogs have slumped for 9 of the past 10 weeks, falling 14% over that time.

Natural Gas prices have posted a 15% loss during its 3 week losing streak.

Nickel snaps its 5 week losing streak during which its price retracing 16%.

Cocoa has given back 16% of its recent 37% advance seen over the previous 6 weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has declined for 6 consecutive weeks.

Soybeans and Wheat prices have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Iron Ore snapped its 4 weeks of declines.

Lumber has fallen for 11 weeks of the past 14 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 50 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

Many currencies no longer appearing in extreme categories.

The Aussie rose. 

The Loonie was quiet and mixed.

The USD (DXY) has risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Euro was mainly firmer.

The USD/CLP broke its 5 week rising run.

And the Yen’s weakness dominated news.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Palladium 5.8%, Raw Sugar 6.5%, Refined Sugar 2.6%, Oats 3.4%, KBW Banks 2.5%, Budapest 2.4%, DJ Transport 2%, Egypt 5.1%, BOVESPA 2.1%, Indonesia 2.5%, Russell 2000 1.3%, KRE Regional Banks 4.5%, Nikkei 2.6%, Nifty 2.2%, PSE 4.1%, Sensex 2.4% and Toronto’s TSX rose 1.5%

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (4.5%), Cocoa (13.2%), China Coking Coal (6.3%), Lean Hogs (2.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.9%), Tin (2.8%), Natural Gas (7.5%0, Orange Juice (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (2.1%), Silver in AUD (1.8%), Corn (7.5%), CAC (2%), HSCEI (1.7%), Vietnam (2.9%) and the Hang Seng fell 1.7%.

June 30, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 21, 2024)

June 23, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/EUR

GBP/EUR

ZAR/USD

KOSPI

NIFTY

SENSEX

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Biodiesel *

Robusta Coffee

GBP/JPY

PHP/USD

RMD/USD

AEX *

KSE *

S&P 500 *

BIST 100

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

USD/BRL

Nasdaq Composite *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Nasdaq 100 *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *

Sweden 10 year government bond yield

Lean Hogs

AUD/ZAR

COP/USD

EUR/GBP

IDR/USD

MXN/USD

CAC Index

IBOV

Indonesia’s IDX *

MOEX

Phillipines PSE

Thailand’s SET *

And the ASX Materials Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chilean 2 year government bond yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

PHP/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

BRL/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, breaking short-term rising trends;

Except for Swiss, Spanish, British and Portuguese.

U.S. 5 & 10 year breakeven inflation rates bounced off their oversold lows.

And Chilean 2 year yields broke their 8 consecutive weeks of declines, In last week’s note, I commented that their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

Equities saw strength, mostly.

Some extended their losing streaks to 5 consecutive weeks, among them being the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, China A50, SET and Toronto’s TSX.

Chile has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Austria’s ATX rose and broke its 4 week losing run.

Mexico and Helsinki also broke their respective streaks.

The TAIEX has soared 9.5% over the past 3 weeks.

While the ASX Materials Index has “meant reverted” in its 5 week decline.

Commodities were mixed, again, with a bias towards weakness.

The commodities indices won’t expressed it due to the positive skew weighting afforded to the Crude Oil weightings.

Shipping, Palladium, Platinum, Oils and Distillates were stronger.

Thermal and Coking Coal, Cocoa, Steel, Lumber, Grains and Gases were weaker.

Cocoa gave up 8% of its recent 37% advance seen over the previous 4 weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks as have Nickel prices.

Iron Ore, Soybeans and Wheat prices have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Wheat has slumped 21% in 4 weeks, Oats have tanked 24% in the last 3 weeks.

Lean Hogs have declined for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Lumber has fallen for 10 weeks of the past 13 weeks.

Robusta Coffee performed a bullish outside several week. 

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 49 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

The Aussie was higher, again except against the South African Rand.

The Euro was mixed.

The Yen is nearing an oversold reading against the AUD.

The USD has risen for 5 consecutive weeks against the Colombian Peso

The U.S. Dollar was mostly stronger.

And the CHF/AUD broke its 4 week rising streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 3.4%, Palladium 2.9%, Platinum 3.9%, Gasoline 4.6%, Robusta Coffee 4.5%, Brent Crude 3%, Gasoil 2.8%, KBW Bank Index 1.6%, DAX 0.9%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 2.1%, MIB 2%, IBOV 1.4%, IDX 3.6%, KRE Regional Banks 1.9%, KSE 2.7%, MCX 1.6%, South Africa 3.3%, TAIEX 3.3%, BIST 2.9% and ASX Small Caps 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;


Australian Coking Coal (3.2%), Cocoa (8.2%), China Coking Coal (3.1%), HRC (1.9%), JKM LNG  (2.3%), Lumber (9.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.5%), Newcastle Coal (2.5%), Natural Gas (6.1%), Shanghai Rebar (2%), Sugar (2.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (4%), Uranium (2.6%), Gold in ZAR (2.5%), Corn (3.3%), Oats (6.4%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (8.4%) and the Phillipines PSE Index fell 3.5%.

June 23, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 14, 2024)

June 16, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Spanish, French, Greek and Italian 10 year government bond yields

Natural Gas

India’s Nifty and Sensex indices

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Biodiesel *

Rubber *

AEX *

KSE

S&P 500

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Nasdaq Composite

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Nasdaq 100

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year inflation break-even rate

U.S. 5 year inflation break-even rate

Lean Hogs

CAD/GBP *

COP/USD

EUR/GBP

DJ Transports Index

BOVESPA *

Mexico *

Indonesia’s IDX

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chilean 2 year government bond yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

BRL/USD

PHP/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

RMB/USD

MXN/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mostly lower, again and notably so.

While readers will see a few European yields in the overbought extremes category; those moments were seen earlier in the week.

Yields have been easing lately, which has been commensurably seen with the Copper/Gold Ratio declining for the past 4 consecutive weeks.

German 5’s and 10’s had outside bearish reversal weeks.

Chilean 2 year yields have fallen for 8 consecutive weeks. Their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

The U.S. 10 year yield minus German 10 year yield spread snapped its 8 week declining streak.

And Japanese yields declined for another week.

Equities were mostly weaker, as seen in the All-World ex-USA Index’s decline of 2.4%.

The exception was the Nasdaq, SOX, TAEIX and the S&P 500.

All 4 indices appear in overbought extreme categories, as do India’s Sensex and Nifty.

Amazingly, the Nasdaq 100 has soared 15% in the past 8 weeks.

France’s CAC and Italy’s MIB had a terrible week, both sinking 6%.

The Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, ATX, Bovespa, Helsinki, SET, TSX and the ASX XMJ are in 4 week losing streaks.

While, the Nasdaq Transports Index and FTSE 100 are in 5 week losing streaks.

Budapest and Amsterdam are at all-time highs.

Commodities were mixed.

Cocoa, Oil, Livestock, Gases, Rice and Urea gained the most.

Cocoa has risen 37% over the past 4 weeks of its new winning streak.

While Robusta Coffee snapped its 4 weeks of consecutive advance.

Coal, Aluminium, Nickel were amongst the weakest performers for the week, again.

Lumber and Steel prices remain oversold for a few weeks now. I’ll presume this is a positive for construction industry?

Some grains were weaker too.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 48 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action. 

The Aussie was higher.

The CHF/AUD has a 4 week rising streak.

The Euro was weaker as was the Yen.

And the PHP/USD broke its 5 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 3.6%, Cocoa 5.9%, WTI Crude Oil 3.9%, Lean Hogs 4.9%, Heating Oil 4.9%, Cattle 3.4%, LNG in Yen 8.8%, Tin 1.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.6%, Sugar 2.3%, S&P GSCI 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.8%, Urea U.S. Gulf 5.1%, Brent Crude 3.9%, Gasoil 5.5%, Gold in CAD 1.5%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 2%, Gold in USD 1.7%, Rice 3.5%, Nasdaq Composite 3.2%, Pakistan’s KSE 4%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, SOX 5.9%, S&P 500 1.6%, BIST 3.3% and the TAEIX rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;


Aluminium (2.7%), China Cokign Coal (1.9%), Cotton (2.2%), Lumber (2.4%), Nickel (2.7%), Nickel MCX (5.6%), Palladium (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (3.7%), Oats (5.8%), Wheat (2.6%), All World ex-USA (2.4%), ATX (3.4%), KBW Bank Index (2.6%), CAC (6.2%), DAX (3%), MIB (5.8%), HSCEI (2.1%), HAng Seng (2.3%), IBEX (3.6%), IDX (2.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (2.3%), MCX (2.1%), Oslo (2.2%), Copenhagen (2.4%), Helsinki (2.2%), Stockholm (2.4%), PSE (2.1%), SET (2%), SMI (1.7%), Chile (1.7%), XJO (1.7%), ASX Materials (4.3%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

June 16, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 7, 2024)

June 9, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/ZAR

Dutch TTF Gas *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield 

Biodiesel *

Rubber *

AEX

KLSE 

and Taiwan’s TAEIX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee *

USD/MXN

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread 

Heating Oil 

Iron Ore CFR China

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

BOVESPA 

Mexico

MOEX

And Thailand’s SET equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chilean 2 year government bond yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

PHP/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

BRL/USD

MXN/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mostly lower.

As a result, last week’s oversold entries are no longer.

The exception is the Brazilian 10’s are back being overbought.

Chilean 2 year yields have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks. Their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

We saw a large decline in Japanese yields across the curve.

U.S. 10 year yield minus German 10 year yield spread is in a 8 week declining streak.

And the Copper/Gold ratio has fallen for the past 3 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

While may indices spent the week between +/- 0.5% – 0.8% from last weeks close. 

Budapest and Amsterdam are at all-time highs.

Several more indices dropped out of overbought territory, while a few traded to some overbought extremes.

S&P SmallCap 600, the Russell 2000, Tel Aviv 25 and Oslo performed a bearish outside reversal week.

And Switzerland’s SMI is nearing a overbought quinella. 

Commodities were mostly weaker, again.

Cocoa & Coffee all saw strength again.

Robusta Coffee and Cocoa have risen 23% and 31%, respectively over the past 3 weeks. 

Coal, Aluminium, Steel, Nickel and Copper were amongst the weakest performers for the week.

Copper has fallen 12% in the past 3 weeks.

Gasoline has fallen 5 of the past 6 weeks, as has Brent Crude Oil.

And Gold as priced in Swiss Francs has fallen 6% over the past 3 weeks.

Grains were weaker too.

Rubber & Biodiesel broke their 5 week winning streaks. 

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel fell, following last week’s outside bearish week.

Orange Juice has fallen 11%, nearly halving the 27% advance seen in the prior 5 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 47 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action. 

The Aussie was weaker and didn’t make a new high against the Yen.

AUD/INR, AUD/THB and the AUD/USD had outside bearish reversal weeks.

In keeping with general weakness amongst commodities, the Loonie was also weaker.

The GBP/AUD had a bullish outside reversal week.

The Yen rose and as a result the GBP/JPY broke its 4 week winning streak.

The USD was stronger.

PHP/USD is in a 5 week losing streak.

And the Mexican Peso fell 8% (against the USD) following its election result.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 6.5%, Natural Gas 12.8%, Robusta Coffee 3.8%, Sugar 3.8%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.6%, Urea Middle East 5.1%, Rice 2.8%, AEX 2.2%, Budapest 2.9%, HSCEI 1.8%, Hang Seng 1.6%, IDX 2%, Nasdaq 100 2.4%, KOSPI 3.3%, Nasdaq Biotech 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 3.4%, Copenhagen 1.7%, SENSEX 3.7%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 3.2%, S&P 500 1.3%, TAEIX 3.2%, Vietnam 2.1%, ASX 200 2.1% and the ASX Industrials rose 1.9%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.2%), Rotterdam Coal (8.8%), WTI Crude Oil (1.9%), Cotton (3%), Lean Hogs (1.9%), Copper (2.6%), HRC (4.3%), LNG in Yen (5.5%), Lithium (3.3%), Tin (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (7.6%), Nickel (8.8%), Orange Juice (3.1%), Platinum (6.8%), SPGSCI (1.6%), Iron Ore CFR China (8.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.3%), Brent Crude Oil (2.2%), Uranium (2.7%), Silver in AUD (3%), Silver USD (4%), Gold in CHF (2.1%), Oats (10.2%), Soybean (2.1%), Wheat (7.5%), KBW Banking Index (1.9%), Egypt (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.5%), Russell 2000 (2.2%), KRE Regional Banks (3.4%), KSE (2.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.1%), Mexico (4%), BIST (2.5%) and Tel Aviv 25 fell 1.7%.

June 9, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

What if Oil prices halved?

June 4, 2024 Leave a comment

WTI Crude Oil ain’t $80 anymore. It’s now $73.

In my note from mid-May, I opine that oil prices see $64 and perhaps $46.

Trendless Oil, looking for much lower prices

June 4, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 24, 2024)

May 26, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Copper

JKM LNG in USD and JPY

Nickel *

Platinum *

Dutch TTF Gas

Wheat *

AUD/SGD

Helsinki *

South Africa 40

And the ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yield * 

Tin

AEX *

Austria’s ATX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Oslo *

Stockholm

TAEIX *

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Nickel on MCX

Orange Juice

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, mostly.

It was another week of relative quiet action.

The Russian 10 year government bond yield isn’t overbought anymore.

And the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate, mean reverted.

Equities were mainly weaker.

The Hang Seng Index and S&P Small Cap 600 aren’t overbought anymore.

Many other equity indices also dropped out of their overbought extremes.

The KBW Bank Index, Vietnam, CSI 300 and Shanghai Index all broke their weekly winning streaks.

The Nasdaq Composite, KLSE, FTSE 250, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and TAEIX have all put together a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen 10% over the past 3 weeks.

Oslo is at an all-time high.

And the HSCEI and Indonesia’s IDX had a weekly outside bearish week. 

Commodities were mostly stronger.

Cotton, Coffee, JKM LNG, Cocoa and Wheat all had a good week.

Nickel as traded on India’s MCX makes a return to registering an overbought extreme.

Oil & Distillates, Copper,  Palladium, Platinum, Silver and Gold all saw weakness.

Tin returns to overbought territory.

Silver and Gold (in all currencies except the CHF) are no longer overbought. 

In fact, Gold performed a bearish outside reversal week.

Lean Hogs are in a 5 week losing streak.

Orange Juice has risen 27% over the past 3 weeks.

Soybeans are in a 5 week winning streak.

Cotton rose and broke its 11 week losing streak.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 45 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies saw some action during the week.

The British Pound was stronger and nearing extreme against the JPY and EUR.

The Yen was mostly weaker., 

The Aussie was weaker against all except the Thai Baht and South African Rand.

The Euro as mixed while the Loonie was weaker.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 2.4%, Cocoa 12.9%, Cotton 6.1%, JKM LNG 7%, Coffee 5.6%, JKM LNG in Yen 13.9%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel in MCX 4%, Orange Juice 6.3%, Robusta Coffee 10.6%, Corn 2.7%, Oats 3%, Wheat 7.1%, Egypt 4.1%, NIFTY 2%, SENSEX 2%, Chile 1.8% and the SOX rose 4.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (2.6%), WTI Crude Oil (2.3%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (5.9%), Heating Oil (2.8%), Nickel (4.1%), Palladium (4%), Platinum (4.7%), Gasoline (3.5%), Sugar (2.4%), Brent Crude Oil (2.1%), Gasoil (3.1%), Silver in AUD (2.7%), Silver in USD (3.6%), Gold in AUD (2.4%), Gold in CAD (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (3.6%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Rice (2.2%), Shanghai (2.1%), CSI 300 (2.1%), KBW Banks (2.3%), China A50 (2.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), DJ Transports (2.7%), MIB (2.6%), HSCEI (4.8%), Hang Seng (4.8%), BOVESPA (3%), IDX (3%), MOEX (3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.4%) and Mexico fel 3.8%.

And for some reference for Australian readers, the ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps fell 1.1%, the ASX Materials fell 1.5% while the ASX Industrials rose 0.9% for the week.

May 26, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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