Macro Extremes (week ending November 8, 2024)

November 10, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread

British 3, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 year bond yields

Norwegian, Swedish and Turkish 10 year bond yields

Lumber *

Dow Jones Transports

S&P SmallCap 600

Russell 2000

KRE Regional Banks Index 

S&P MidCap 400

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Lean Hogs

KBW Bank Index

Hungary’s BUX Index

Pakistan’s KSE *

Czechia’s PX Index

Israel’s TA35

Nasdaq Transportation Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

US10Y – AU10Y spread

Rice

RMB/USD

Copenhagen

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields fell, taking a breather from the recent climb.

Japanese, Norwegian, Kiwi, Swedish 10’s and U.S. 2’s bucked this trend. 

5 weeks of higher yields in Australia came to an end.

Russian 10’s fell 88 basis points. Was this rally related to a Trump election win?

U.S. 10 year breakeven inflation rate mean reverted, upwards.

The U.S 30 year minus U.S. 10 year spread has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield broke its 7 week rising streak.

as did the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.

U.S. 3 month bills are yielding their lowest since mid-March 2023.

And U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 3 months…

soon I’ll look for yields to move lower.

Equities soared.

The Hang Seng and HSCEI broke their 4 week losing streaks.

Mexico rose to erase half of its past fortnight of declines to also post a bullish outside reverse week.

Scandinavian indices were amongst the few which fell for week.

Italy, Spain and FTSE 100 also fell.

Commodity prices most firmer.

Energy, Base Metals and Grains were stronger.

Precious metals were weaker with Palladium and Silver dropping the most.

Uranium, Pork, Urea and Oats also slumped.

As such, Lean Hogs aren’t overbought anymore.

Lithium Carbonate rose.

The Baltic Dry Index and Robust Coffee broke their 5 week falling streak.

Last week, Cattle and Platinum both posted a bearish outside reversal week. They duly fell this week.

Sugar have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Rice have sunken for 7 consecutive weeks.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 24 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 69 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were fairly subdued.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 4 months and is in a 5 week rising streak.

The Aussie rose and broke many 4 week losing streaks across various pairs.

The Loonie also rose and also broke its 5 week losing streak against the USD.

The CAD/EUR, USD/JPY and USD/KRW all posted a bullish outside reversal week.

The Swiss France and Japanese Yen fell.

The CHF/USD is in a 4 week losing streak.

The Colombian Peso isn’t oversold against the USD anymore.

EUR/USD had a bearish otiose reversal week as the Euro was generally weaker.

USD/CNH and the USD/SEK have climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

And the GBP/AUD broke its 4 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 8.5%, Brent Crude 1.5%, Coffee 4.5%, Lithium Hydroxide 5.6%, Tin 1.8%, Nickel 2.8%, Gasoline 2.3%, Robusta 2.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.3%, Corn 4%, Soybeans 3.7%, Shanghai 5.5%, CSI 300 5.5%, KBW Banks 8.4%, Budapest 3.2%, China A50 1.5%, Dow Jones Industrials 4.7%, Dow Jones Transports 6.1%, Egypt 2%, S&P SmallCap 600 8.7%, Russell 2000 8.7%, TAIEX 3.4%, Nasdaq Composite 5.7%, KRE Regional Banks 2.7%, S&P MidCap 400 6.3%, Mexico 2.4%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 5.4%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 500 4.7%, STI 4.8%, Nasdaq Transports 8.9%, TSX 2.1%, WIG 3.4%, ASX Financials 3.6%, BIST 3.4%, ASX Industrials 3.7% and the ASX 200 rode 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Cocoa (1.4%), North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2.1%), Lean Hogs (4.3%), Copper (1.5%), Orange Juice (4.5%), Palladium (10.5%), Platinum (2.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2%), Urea Middle East (3.4%), Uranium (2.4%), Silver in AUD (3.9%), Silver in USD (3.5%), Gold in AUD (2.3%), Gold in CAD (2.2%), Gold in GBP (1.9%), Gold in USD (1.9%), Gold in ZAR (2.4%), Oats (9.5%), Rice (3%), MIB (2.5%), IBEX (2.5%), IDX (3.1%), Copenhagen (2.8%), PSI (2.3%) and the FTSE 100 fell 1.3%.

November 10, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending November 1, 2024)

November 3, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 2, 3, 5 and 10 year government bond yields

Lumber

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY) *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP USD & ZAR *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)

Lean Hogs

Pakistan’s KSE *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

BRL/USD

Copenhagen

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Colombian Peso vs USD

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields rose, again.

Australian yields have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield has climbed for 7 straight weeks,

as has the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.

U.S. 3 month bills are yielding their lowest since mid-March 2023.

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 3 months.

The U.S. 10 year bond yield has risen for 5 of the past 7 weeks.

And the Aussie yield curve is nearly overbought.

Equities were weaker, again.

The Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Nasdaq Compose broke its 7 week winning streak while also performing a bearish outside reversal.

Mexico’s main index has declined 4.5% over the past fortnight.

The ASX Materials index along with India’s Nifty and Sensex all broke their 4 week losing streak. 

And Oslo’s OBX and Stockholm’s OMX30 both posted a weekly bearish outside reversal.

Commodity prices were weaker.

Energy prices saw weakness with gas prices having a shocker.

Palladium and Silver dropped out from overbought status.

This week, they dropped 8% and 3% respectively.

The Baltic Dry Index and Robusta Coffee have fallen for 5 straight weeks. 

The former has fallen 40% over the past 4 weeks.

Copper broke its 4 week streak of declines, by only a whisker.

Lean Hogs have climbed for 5 weeks.

Cocoa recovered last weeks decline.

Cattle and Platinum both posted a bearish outside reversal week.

Nickel and Sugar have fallen for 4 straight weeks. The former may re-test recent lows.

Robusta Coffee and Rice have sunken for 5 and 6 consecutive weeks, respectively.

Gold was subdues, while Silver was a notable loser.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 23 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 68 consecutive weeks.

Currencies saw the most amount of streaks being extended.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 4 week rising streak.

The Aussie weakened, again, now for the 4th week against many and for 5 weeks specifically versus the USD.

The Yen and Canadian Dollar were weaker.

The Loonie is in a 5 week losing streak against the USD.

I found it interesting that the CAD has risen for 3 weeks vs the AUD.

The Euro rose and the EUR/GBP posted a bullish outside reversal.

The GBP/USD, the JPY/USD, MYR/USD, SGD/USD and NZD/USD have all fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Philippines Peso is in a 6 week losing streak vs USD.

And the GBP has climbed for 4 weeks versus the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 8.4%, Lean Hogs 5.5%, Lumber 5%, Brent Crude 3.8%, Oats 5%, DJ Transports 1.5% and the KRE Regional Bank Index rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.3%), Rotterdam Coal (2.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (3.2%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.2%), Brent Crude Oil (3.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.9%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (14.5%), Nickel (1.6%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (3.3%), Gasoline (3.5%), Robusta Coffee (3%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), CRB Index (1.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.4%), Uranium (3.3%), Silver in AUD (3.1%), Silver in USD (3.8%), Rice (1.8%), CSI 300 (1.7%), AEX (1.7%), Bovespa (1.4%), TAIEX (2.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KOSPI (1.6%), Mexico (2.4%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.6%), Oslo (1.9%), Helsinki (2%), PSI (2.3%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (4.1%), Chile (2.8%), S&P 500 (1.4%) and ASX Financial fell 1.6%.

November 3, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

The bet is whether inflation rises

October 28, 2024 Leave a comment

The U.S. inflation rate is closer to its low, than its high,

and so my portfolios will be positioned towards assets which will benefit from higher inflation.

In the meantime, there may a little lower travel for the #inflation rate in the coming month or two.

October 28, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 25, 2024)

October 27, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium

Silver in AUD & USD

Tel Aviv 35

And Australia’s ASX Small Caps *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP USD & ZAR *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Gold as priced in CHF *

Pakistan’s KSE *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Baltic Dry Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields rose.

The Brazilian, Finnish and Korean yields bucked that trend.

Australian yields have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield has climbed for 6 straight weeks,

as has the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 2 months.

Lastly, the U.S. 20 year bond yield has risen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Equities were weaker.

North American and Asian indices were the most weakest.

The U.S. Transports indices dropped out overbought territory as did the Dow Jones Industrials, Thailand’s SET and Toronto’s TSX.

The Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 3 week losing streaks.

The Nikkei 225 has declined 4.2% over the past fortnight.

India’s Nifty and Sensex have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks which isn’t surprising after spending a couple months trading at various extremes. 

The ASX Materials index has also declined for the past 4 weeks. 

The Tel Aviv 25 Index is at an all-time high……

And the Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 all broke their 6 week winning streaks.

Commodity prices were stronger.

Energy prices bounced back and Palladium, Gold, Orange Juice, Corn & Soybeans were the other prominent gainers.

Cocoa, Coffee, Uranium, Nickel and Shipping Rates were the notable decliners for the week.

The former has declined 13% over the past fortnight.

Copper, the Baltic Dry Index and Robusta Coffee have fallen for 4 straight weeks. 

The latter has slumped 20% over that time, while the Baltic Dry Index is at oversold extreme.

Furthermore, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen 38% over the past 3 weeks.

China Coking Coal completed a reversion to the mean.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Palladium is at its highest closing price since mid-December 2023.

Lean Hogs are in a 6 week winning streak.

Natural Gas soared 13.4% making up half of the 24% decline seen in the previous 3 weeks.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 22 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 67 consecutive weeks.

Currencies action was dominated by U.S. strength, again; again.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 4 week rising streak.

The Aussie weakened, again, again.

The Yen was weaker.

The Aussie has fallen for 4 weeks against the Rupiah and the USD.

Similarly, the Brazilian Real, Canadian Dollar and Yen have also declined for the past 4 weeks versus the USD.

Philippines Peso’s falling streak vs USD has extended to  weeks as has the EUR/USD.

While the Swiss Franc rose for the week.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, WTI Crude Oil 4.5%, Lean Hogs 2.4%, Heating Oil 4%, JKM LNG 3.9%, JKM in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 13.4%, Orange Juice 6%, Palladium 10.9%, Gasoline 3.6%, S&P GSCI 2.7%, CRB Index 1.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 11%, Brent Crude 3.8%, Gasoil 4.3%, Silver in AUD 1.6%, Gold in AUD 2.5%, Gold in EUR 1.6%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Corn 2.6%, Soybean 1.5%, KSE 5.6% and Oslo rose 1.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (10.5%), Cocoa (9.1%), Arabica Coffee (3.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.4%), Nickel (4.4%), Robusta Coffee (5.8%), Uranium (2.5%), Developed World ex USA (2.1%), KBW Baks (1.5%), CAC (1.5%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), DJ Transports (1.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3.1%), Russell 2000 (3%), KLSE (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (2.9%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.8%),  Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq Biotech (2.6%), Nikkei 225 (2.7%), Helsinki (1.5%), Sensex (2.2%), SET (1.8%), S&P 500 (1%), TSX (1.5%), Vietnam (2.6%), WIG (2.3%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.2%. 

October 27, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 18, 2024)

October 20, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

GBP/EUR

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Transports *

And Australia’s ASX Small Caps *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, ZAR, GBP & USD *

Dow Jones Industrials *

Thailand’s SET 

And Toronto’s TSX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Gold as priced in CHF & EUR

Pakistan’s KSE *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields mostly fell,

This seems logical as the EU announced interest rate cuts, this past week.

This also meant that yield across the British curve broke their 4 week rising streak.

Japanese and Australian yields bucked the falling trend. 

U.S. 20 and 30 year yields also broke their 4 winning streak.

The US minus German 10 year spread has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 2 months.

Equities were mixed, with a bias towards higher prices.

The SOX and AEX has bearish outside weeks.

The U.S. Transports indices are notable entrants this week.

Chinese equites continued their weakness following recent visits to the overbought extreme category.

The KBW Banking Index is near to posting an overbought quinella extreme. 

While Italy’s MIB is trading at stretched levels, it remains miles below it all-time high.

The ASX Financial have risen 6% in the past fortnight, recovering the 6% decline in the prior fortnight.

Toronto’s TSX and the Nasdaq 100 have risen 8.7% and 10% respectively over the past 6 weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 have all put together 6 week winning streaks.

And the Tel Aviv 25 Index is at an all-time high…….

Commodities were broadly weaker, again.

The main drag were prices across the energy complex.

Base Metals and Grains were also weaker.

Inversely, Precious Metals had a good week and various prices appear in overbought territory.

Incidentally, many commodity prices are also establishing 3 week streaks on either side of the ledger.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 27% over the past 3 weeks.

Lean Hogs are in a 6 week winning streak.

Cattle broke its 5 week winning streak.

Coffee prices saw an anomaly. Arabica rose while Robusta fell.

Natural Gas has sunk 24% in the past 3 weeks.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 21 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 66 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies action was dominated by U.S. strength, again; again.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 3 week rising streak.

The Aussie weakened, again.

The BRL/USD is nearing an oversold quinella. 

The loonie mainly rose.

The Euro was slightly weaker.

And the British Pound was slight stringer

And the Philippine Peso has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Coffee 2.1%, Platinum 3%, Silver in AUD 7.6%, Silver in USD 6.9%, Gold in AUD 3.1%, Gold in CAD 2.7%, Gold in CHF 3.3%, Gold in EUR 3.1%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in USD 2.4%, Gold in ZAR 3.6%, KBW Bank Index 2.8%, DAX 1.5%, MIB 2.6%, IBEX 1.8%, IDX 2.9%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2%, TAIEX 2.6%, KRE Regional Banks 2.8%, FTSE 250 1.9%, PX 2.1%, STI 1.9%, TA25 2.1%, Nasdaq Transports 2% and the ASX Financial rose 4.1%. 

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (4%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Baltic Dry Index (12.9%), Cocoa (3.7%), WTI Crude Oil (8.4%), Copper (2.4%), Heating Oil (8.2%), JKM LNG (3.2%), Lithium Carbonate (1.9%), Tin (3.7%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (14.1%), Nickel (4.2%), Gasoline (7.2%), Robusta Coffee (2.6%), S&P GSCI (4.9%), CRB Index (3.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (1.7%), Brent Crude Oil (7.2%), Gasoil (8.6%), Corn (2.7%), Soybeans (3.2%), Wheat (4.4%), China A50 (2%), Egypt (2%), HSCEI (2%), Hang Seng (2.1%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) Index fell 2.4%.

October 20, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 11, 2024)

October 13, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Brazilian and Turkish 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate (YoY) spread

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate (YoY) spread

Shanghai Composite *

CSI 300 *

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Nasdaq Transports

And Australia’s ASX Small Caps *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Middle East Urea *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD *

Dow Jones Industrials

And Toronto’s TSX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Pakistan’s KSE *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Broadly, it was a week to ‘leave the bat on the shoulder’ and there was nothing to do.

Global government bond yields mildly rise, adding to last week’s move.

Yields across the UK and U.S. curve are in a 4 week rising streak.

The US minus German 10 year spread has also risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

While the US 5 year breakeven inflation rate and and the US 5 year yield minus US 3 month bill spread have both risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 2 months.

Equities were mixed.

Understandably, Chinese and Hong Kong indices gave up some of the previous weeks gains.

Last week, I wrote that around July 2020 – February 2021 was the last time we saw Chinese A50, CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite register an overbought quinella. 

This week, they only appear in the overbought category because they traded up to their 2.5 standard deviation mark early in the week.

In addition, the China A50, HSCEI, Hang Seng and Egyptian indices had bearish outside reversal weeks.

DJ Industrials notable entrant in overbought this week.

The Nasdaq Composite has put together a 5 week winning streak as have the S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the TSX.

The Philippines PSE winning run ended at 5 weeks.

And Thailand’s SET is closing in on a overbought quinella reading.

Commodities were the busiest of the 4 assets classes featured in Macro Extremes.

The bia was slightly tilted to weakness.

Gold across various currencies remains overbought.

Silver and Sugar aren’t overbought this week.

Coking Coal joins Steel prices in oversold territory.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 15% over the past fortnight.

Lean Hogs are in a 5 week winning streak.

Sugar, Tin, Nickel and CRB Index all broke their 4 week winning streaks.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 20 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 65 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies action was dominated by U.S. strength, again.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 2 months.

All currency pairs which are appeared in last week’s edition no longer appear.

The Aussie fell while the Swiss rose.

The Yen also rose, albeit slightly.

CHF/AUD broke its 4 week losing streak and AUD/EUR broke its 4 week rising run.

And the British Pound was flat to slightly lower.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 9.5%, WTI Crude Oil 1.6%, Heating Oil 1.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 1.7%, Orange Juice 2.3%, Palladium 7.1%, Gasoline 2.7%, Rubber 1.6%, Gold in CAD 1.5%, Wheat 1.6%, KBW Bank Index 4%, Dow Jones Transports 2.7%, MIB 2.1%, TAIEX 2.7%, KRE Regional Banks 3.9%, KSE 2.3%, S&P Midcap 400 1.2%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, Copenhagen 1.4%, SET 1.8%, SOX 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 2.7%, WIG 1.8%, ASX Financials 2.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (4.5%), Rotterdam Coal (2.1%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.3%), Baltic Dry Index (6.2%), China Coking Coal (4.3%), North European Hot Rolled Coiled Steel (1.8%), Copper (1.8%), US Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel (2.6%), Arabica Coffee (2.1%), Tin (4.1%), Natural Gas (7.8%), Nickel (2.9%), Shanghai Rebar (1.9%), Robusta Coffee (4.7%), Sugar (3.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.7%), Middle East Urea (2%), Silver in AUD (1.4%), Silver in USD (2.1%), Corn (2.1%), Oats (2.2%), Soybeans (3.1%), Shanghai Composite (3.6%), CSI 300 (3.3%), China A50 (10.6%), Egypt (3%), HSCEI (6.6%), Hang Seng (6.5%), MOEX (1.8%), PSE (2.1%), BIST (2.6%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 1.4%.

October 13, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 4th, 2024)

October 6, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Turkish 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate (YoY) spread

Silver in AUD & USD *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/INR *

AUD/USD *

BIST

And Australia’s ASX Small Caps *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Sugar *

Urea (Middle East and U.S. Gulf)

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD & USD *

MYR/USD *

Egypt

Karachi *

Philippines PSE *

And Toronto’s TSX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Gold in CHF, EUR & GBP

Shanghai Composite 

CSI 300 

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

CAD/AUD *

EUR/GBP *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Broadly, many things that were trading at ‘extremes’ last week, are no longer so, this week.

Global government bond yields rose.

Yields across the UK curve are in a 3 week rising streak.

Japanese yields rose strongly, recovering last weeks decline.

Commensurate to bond yields being oversold recently, inversely, this publication listed iShares 1-3 year Bond ETF (SHY) being overbought. It was implying to consider the antithesis of being long bonds. This past week, SHY fell 1%. This gave up 33% of the capital gain seen over the past 6 months. 

U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 2 months.

The U.S. 5 year yield minus the 3 month bill spread has climbed for 4 straight weeks.

And various U.S. yield spreads listed last week have broken their 6 week rising streak.

Equities were mainly lower, contrary to any bullish feelings being felt.

The pocket of strength was contained to Chinese and Hong Kong indices.

In fact, the Chinese market was only open on Monday.

The July 2020 – February 2021 period was the last time we saw Chinese A50, CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite register an overbought quinella. 

The Nasdaq Composite has put together a 4 week winning streak.

The Philippines PSE is in a 5 week winning run.

The ASX Financials Index has fallen 6.5% in the past fortnight after being overbought in the week prior.

And Toronto’s TSX makes a return to overbought territory.

Commodities were mixed, although the indices strength due to their weighting to energy contracts.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 8.6% over the past 4 weeks.

Gold across various currencies remains overbought as does Silver.

Urea is a new overbought entrant.

Coffee isn’t overbought anymore.

Cocoa and Shipping Rates took a shellacking.
While Coking Coal prices bounced out from oversold territory.

Sugar, Tin, Nickel and CRB Index are in 4 week winning streaks, while Natural Gas its.

Shanghai Rebar prices have soared 15% over the past 2 weeks.

Soybeans broke its 6 consecutive weeks of positive closes.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 19 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 64 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies action was dominated by U.S. strength.

The DXY Index broke its 4 week losing streak and rose 2%.

Hence I had a confusing read of currencies during the week.

Risk-off was seen in equities but the AUD and CAD rose.

And the Yen fell.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

The AUD has risen for 4 weeks against the Euro.

The GBP was generally weaker.

And the THB/USD is no longer overbought as the Thai Baht broke its 4 weeks rising trend, falling 3% against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 19.7%, Rotterdam Coal 3.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.8%, WTI Crude Oil 9.1%, DXY Index 2.1%, Lean Hogs 2.4%, Heating Oil 7.5%, Tin 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 2.3%, Nickel 5.7%, Gasoline 8.8%, Shanghai Rebar 12.1%, S&P GSCI 4.6%, CRB Index 2%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.2%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.9%, Brent Crude Oil 8.5%, Gasoil 8.4%, Urea Middle East 5.3%, Silver in AUD 3.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Gold in CHF 1.9%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Corn 1.6%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai Composite 8.1%, CSI 300 8.5%, China A50 16.3%, HSCEI 11.7%, Hang Seng 10.7%, KSE 2.8% and Oslo rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (8.6%), Cocoa (14.6%), Arabica Coffee (4.4%), Lumber (1.9%), Lithium Carbonate (5.6%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.1%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Palladium (2.4%), Platinum (2%), Robusta Coffee (7.6%), Rubber (1.6%), Soybeans (2.6%), All World Developed ex USA (3.5%), Budapest (1.5%), CAC (3.2%), DAX (1.8%), DJ Transports (2.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBEX (2.6%), IDX (2.8%), MOEX (1.9%), TAEIX (2.3%), KLSE (1.8%), KOSPI (3%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), Nikkei 225 (3%), NIFTY (4.5%), Copenhagen (2.3%), SENSEX (4.5%), SMI (1.9%), Vietnam (1.6%), BIST (6.8%) and the ASX Financials fell 2%.

October 6, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 27, 2024)

September 29, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year bond yield minus the 2 year bond yield

Australian 10 year bond yield minus the 5 year bond yield

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield

Sugar *

Silver in USD

Gold in CHF

AUD/CAD *

ZAR/USD *

AUD/INR

AUD/USD

CAD/USD

All World Developed Equities Index (ex USA)

China A50

DAX

IBEX *

South Africa 40 Index

Nasdaq Transportation Index *

And Australia’s ASX Small Caps

Overbought (RSI > 70)

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government yield *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government yield *

Robusta Coffee *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD & GBP *

MYR/USD *

THB/AUD

Budapest

Karachi

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Arabica Coffee

Gold in EUR & USD

CNH/USD

HSCEI

Hang Seng

And the Philippines PSE Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

CAD/AUD

EUR/GBP

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. and German 2 year government bond yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

USD/IDR *

USD/SGD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 3 month bill yield

USD/CNH

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields fell.

Shorter dated American and German (Euro) yields are oversold.

Japanese yields slumped more than others.

Those who bucked the declines were Chinese 10’s and Gilts across the curve.

U.S. bond yields squeezed out a small rise.

Following its central bank policy to hike rates, Brazilian 10’s ventured into overbought territory.

It’s worthy to note that the Copper/Gold ratio rallied.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearing an oversold extreme.

And various Australian and U.S. bond yield spreads are in this weeks list.

Equities rose again, again.

Many indices have put together a 3 week rising streak.

And we are seeing more indices entering overbought territory.

The FTSE All World Index (Developed ex USA) makes a return to the list.

Chinese and Hong Kong indices soared during the week sending them into overbought extremes.

Bangkok, Copenhagen and the ASX Financials took a break from being overbought. The latter fell 4.4% for the week.

Spain’s IBEX and Germany’s DAX are mathematically stretched.

The former has risen 7 of its past 8 weeks, amounting to an advance of 16%.

The PSE has also climbed 16% over the past 14 weeks.

Australia’s Materials Index has soared 15% over the past 3 weeks. 

Singapore’s Strait Times breaks its 6 week winning streak.

And Toronto’s TSX is nearing an overbought quinella.

Commodities mostly rose.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 6.8% over the past 3 weeks.

Palladium isn’t overbought this week while Gold across various currencies remains so.

Aluminium, Iron Ore, Copper, Coffee, Dutch TTF Gas and grains had a terrific week.

Only a few commodity contracts saw declines being Crude Oil, Palladium, Rice and OJ.

Most commodities are trading at their ‘mid-points’.

Soybeans have risen for 6 consecutive weeks.

U.S. Henry Hub Natural Gas has risen 44% in its current 4 week winning streak.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 18 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 63 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies once again saw most action and they feature prominently in this week’s list.

The Aussie rose again, stringing together a 3 week streak.

The Canadian Loonie was generally weaker, again. Confusing perhaps, as the decline in the CAD juxtaposed the risk-on feeling for the week.

The Euro was weaker while the Yen saw strength.

The Swiss has fallen 3 consecutive weeks agains the AUD, confirming the ‘risk-on’ mood.

The DXY is in a 4 week losing streak which helps explain USD appearing as oversold in this weeks edition.

Furthermore, the USD/SGD has fallen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

And the British Pound registered an overbought reading against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 1.7%, Aluminium 7.1%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 6.7%, Cocoa 8.1%, Iron Ore 11.4%, Copper 5.9%, JKM LNG 1.8%, Arabica Coffee 7.3%, Lumber 4.6%, Tin 2.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.7%, Natural Gas 11%, Nickel 2.8%, Platinum 3.1%, Shanghai Rebar 3.3%, Robusta Coffee 8.4%, Dutch TTF 9.6%, Uranium 3.2%, Corn 4%, Oats 4.8%, Soybeans 5.3%, Wheat 2%, Shanghai Composite 12.8%, CSI 300 15.7%, All World Index ex-USA 3.4%, AEX 2.2%, Budapest 1.9%, CAC 3.9%, China A50 18.9%, DAX 4%, DJ Transports 2.7%, MIB 2.9%, HSCEI 14.4%, Hang Seng 13%, IBEX 1.8%, MOEX 2.7%, TAIEX 3%, KOSPI 2.2%, FTSE 250 2%, Nikkei 225 5.6%, Helsinki 4.2%, Stockholm 2.3%, PSE 2.8%, South Africa 4.9%, SMI 2.5%, SOX 4.3%, Chile 3%, Tel Aviv 4.9%, WIG 3.9%, ASX Materials 9.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

WTI Crude Oil (4%), Orange Juice (4.2%), Palladium (5.1%), Gasoline (4%), Brent Crude Oil (3.7%), Rice (3.1%), KRE Regional Banks Index (3.1%), Nasdaq Biotechs (2.7%), Copenhagen (1.3%), Strait Times (1.4%) and the ASX Financials slumped 4.4%.

September 29, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2024)

September 22, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium 

Sugar

AUD/CAD

ZAR/USD

IBEX

Copenhagen

PSE

Nasdaq Transportation Index

Thailand’s SET Index *

And Australia’s ASX 200

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government yield

Arabica and Robusta Coffee *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR & USD *

MYR/USD *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

And the ASX Financials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 2 year government bond yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CFR China Iron Ore *

USD/CNH

USD/IDR

USD/SGD *

Shanghai Composite *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Notes & Ideas:

During a week when the investors were awaiting a lowering of the American central bank interest rates…….. Global government bond yields rose.

Chilean and Swiss 10’s yields aren’t oversold anymore.

Short dated Japanese yields bucked the global weekly trend. They fell.

The U.S. yield curve remains overbought (10 year – 2 year) as is the U.S. 10Y – 5Y spread.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearing an oversold extreme.

And incidentally, Brazil’s central bank hiked their policy interest rate.

Equities rose again.

We are seeing more indices entering overbought territory.

At this stage, most of them are in Asia driven by their stronger currencies.

Singapore’s Strait Times is in a 6 week winning streak.

Some Australian indices also feature in this week’s list.

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 broke their 4 week losing streaks.

And any of those which were oversold last week have bounced, such as the KOSPI.

Commodities mostly rose.

Gold and Palladium remain in overbought territory.

Sugar soared 19% for the week.

Lumber and Heating Oil moved out of overbought territory.

U.S. Henry Hub Natural Gas has risen 14% over the past 3 weeks.

Wheat broke its 3 week winning streak.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 17 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 62 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies feature heavily in this week’s entrants of extremes.

The Aussie rose while the Canadian Loonie fell, again. Confusing perhaps?

The decline in the CAD juxtaposed the risk-on feeling for the week.

While the Yen’s decline of 2%-3% across a range of pairs and weakness in the Swissie confirmed the ‘risk-on’ mood.

The USD was generally weaker and is prominently oversold against various Asian currencies.

And the British Pound is nearing an overbought level again the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 4.6%, WTI Crude Oil 5.3%, Cotton 5.3%, Lean Hogs 4.8%, Copper 2.5%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Lumber 2.3%, Cattle 2.5%, LNG JKM in Yen 4.4%, Newcastle Coal 2.9%, Natural Gas 5.6%, Nickel 4.1%, Gasoline 5.3%, Sugar 19.2%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 3.1%, Brent Crude 3.6%, Gasoil 2.5%, Gold in CHF 1.8%, Gold in USD 1.7%, Rice 1.9%, KBW Bank Index 4.7%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, HSCEI 5.1%, Hang Seng 5.1%, IBEX 1.9%, IDX 1.6%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.3%, MOEX 3.9%, Russell 2000 2.2%, TAEIX 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 1.5%, KSE 3.5%, S&P MidCap 400 2%, Nikkei 225 3.1%, Stockholm 2.1%, PSI 3.3%, South Africa 2%, Sensex 2%, SET 1.9%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.7%, ASX Financials 2.4%, ASX Small Caps 1.8% and Turkiye’s BIST rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

JKM LNG (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (3.4%), Platinum (2.5%), Robusta Coffee (4%), Dutch TTG Gas (3.4%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (2.7%), Wheat (4.4%), BOVESPA (2.8%), Copenhagen (2.6%) and the Tel Aviv 35 fell 2.8%

September 22, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 13, 2024)

September 15, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium 

Thailand’s SET Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Overbought (RSI > 70)

SHY *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government yield

MYR/USD *

Arabica & Robusta Coffee * 

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD and USD

NIFTY
SENSEX

ASX Financials Index *

And the ASX Industrials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Gold in EUR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

WTI Crude Oil

Gasoline

S&P GSCI Index

Brent Crude Oil

Gasoil 

KOSPI

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. and German 2 year government bond yield

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CFR China Iron Ore *

AUD/THB *
USD/THB

USD/SGD

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300 

MOEX

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 3 month t-bill yield *

Swiss and Chilean 10 year government bond yield

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Heating Oil *

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields fell, again, adding to the previous weeks decline.

Belgian, Brazilian and Finnish yields did the opposite.

The yield for the U.S. 10 year yields are at their lowest since May 2023.

While the U.S. yield curve is overbought.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearing an oversold extreme.

And Chile’s and Switzerland’s 10 year bond yield are oversold.

Equities had a tremendous week, recovering last week’s declines.

For example, the Nasdaq Composite recovered all of last weeks loss.

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 are in 4 week losing streaks.

South Korea’s KOSPI is unloved.

Russia’s MOEX broke its 7 week losing streak.

The SOX soared 10% to nearly offset last weeks 12% tanking.

Singapore’s Strait Times is in a 5 week winning streak.

And some Indian and Aussie indices are overbought.

Commodities mostly rose.

Gold returns to overbought territory.

Silver rose 10% while Palladium double that performance for the week.

The latter appears in this weeks list.

Other notable advancers included Cocoa, Oats, Wheat, Aluminium and Coffee.

Coffee is overbought again.

Wheat has risen 12% over the past 3 weeks.

Inversely, selected energy contracts are oversold.

Gasoline declines to complete a mean reversion.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 16 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 61 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies set the mood for risk.

The Aussie rose while the Canadian Loonie fell.

The decline in the CAD juxtaposed the risk-on feeling for the week.

Adding to the mixed signals, we saw the Yen advance while risk assets prospered.

MXN/USD rallied 4% for the week and isn’t oversold anymore.

The USD is oversold agains the roaring Baht, Ringgit and Singapore Dollar.

And the Indonesian Rupiah broke its 6 weeks rising streak against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 3.4%, Aluminium 5.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.6%, Cocoa 8.7%, WTI Crude Oil 1.5%, Cotton 2.9%, Copper 4%, Arabica Coffee 9.9%, Tin 3%, Palladium 19.2%, Gasoline 1.6%, Robusta Coffee 10.4%, Sugar 1.8%, S&P GSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2.6%, Silver in AUD 9.4%, Silver in USD 10%, Gold in AUD 2.7%, Gold in CAD 3.3%, Gold in CHF 4%, Gold in GBP 3.3%, Gold in EUR 3.4%, Gold in USD 3.2%, Gold in ZAR 2.7%, Corn 1.7%, Oats 7%, Wheat 4.9%, AEX 2.3%, CAC 1.5%, DAX 2.2%, DJ Industrials 2.6%, DJ Transports 2%, IBEX 3.3%, IDX 1.7%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.5%, Russell 2000 4.3%, TAEIX 1.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6%, KRE Regional Banks 1.8%, FTSE 250 2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.3%, Mexico 1.8%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.2%, Nasdaq 100 5.9%, Nifty 2%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 4.3%, Stockholm 1.8%, Sensex 2.1%, SOX 10%, S&P 500 4%, Chile 1.7%, STI 3.1%, TSX 3.5%, ASX 200 1.1%, ASX Materials 4.2% and ASX Small Caps rose 3.1%  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (2.6%), European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2.1%), Lumber (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (4.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.3%), Urea Middle East (1.9%), CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite (2.2%), China A50 (1.8%), Egypt (1.7%) and Vietnam fell 1.8%

September 15, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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