Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)

January 4, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *

European 20 and 30 year bond yields

The Japanese bond yield curve

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

MYR/USD *

All World Developed ex USA index

Austria’s ATX Index

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

CNH/USD *

ZAR/USD

Poland’s WIG Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally rose.

U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.

Equities were mixed to mostly higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.

KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also mixed.

Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers. 

Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.

None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.

Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.

Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.

Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mostly weaker.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

CAD was lower.

CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.

EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.

THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.

January 4, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 26, 2025)

December 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Indian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread *

Australian Coking Coal *

Copper

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

ZAR/USD *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year bond yield

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Tin *

Aluminium (LME price) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s Bovespa

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield *

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD

AUD/IDR

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

THB/USD

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased except for Japan’s.

The Australian and Euro yield curve fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.

Brazilian and Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 6 weeks.

The U.S. 10Y minus U.S. 2Y spread eased and is no longer overbought.

While the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly oversold.

We have also seen some reversals.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread rose and broke a 8 weeks losing streak.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.

And U.S 3 month bill yields rose to snap a 5 week losing streak.

Equities traded higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE was climbed higher for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Transports, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 5 week winning streaks.

Italy’s MIB fell for the first time in 4 weeks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index fell and snapped a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were firmer.

Palm Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Coffee and Gold were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates was the sole notable decliner.

Platinum has soared 42% in the past 3 weeks.

Orange Juice has climbed 40% in the past 3 weeks.

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 35% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Cattle fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

The USD version has climbed for 5 weeks.

Newcastle Coal and Gasoil rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Heating Oil mean reverted.

JKM LNG rose and broke 4 weeks of loss.

Arabica coffee looks like changing direction of trend.

Lithium Carbonate is nearing overbought territory.

Uranium has climbed for 5 weeks.

Rice has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

And Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was mixed to firmer.

CAD/JPY an the GBP/JPY have climbed for 7 weeks.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

THB/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 5 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.4%, Cocoa 1.9%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Copper 6%, Arabica Coffee 2.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.4%, Lithium Carbonate 3.9%, Lithium Hydroxide 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.6%, Nickel 6.8%, Orange Juice 2.9%, Palladium 13.2%, Platinum 22.4%, Robusta Coffee 6.2%, Sugar 2.4%, Gasoil 2%, S&P GSCI 1.5%, CRB Index 1.*%, Silver in AUD 16.3%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.9%, Gold in GBP 3.5%, Gold in USD 4.5%, Gold in ZAR 3.8%, Corn 1.4%, Oats 3.4% Wheat 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed 1.5%, KBW Bank Index 1.8%, China A50 1.6%, FCATC 2%, Bovespa 1.5%, TAIEX 3.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 2%, IGPA 1.7%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.5%, XFJ 1.4%, XJO 1.6%, XMJ 3.4% and ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Israel’s TA35 (1.6%).

December 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending December 12, 2025)

December 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greece, Indian, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

AUD/CHF *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

THB/USD

Austria’s ATX equity index *

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P MidCap 400

Copenhagen’s OMX

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

The Euro bond yield curve

Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Silver in AUD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX

Brazil’s BOVESPA

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The S&P Biotech ETF *

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Silver in USD *

AUD/INR *

MYR/USD*

USD/INR *

U.S. KBW Bank Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields

Lithium Hydroxide *

Dutch TTF Gas *

CHF/AUD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Chilean 10 year government bond yield *

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Urea (U.S. gulf)

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for short dated U.S. paper and the British yield curve.

Swiss 10’s soared.

A bunch of new bond yields appear in this weeks list.

The Australian, Euro and Japanese yield curves are overbought.

Kiwi 10 year yields have climbed for 8 weeks,

Whilst Japanese 10 year yield fell slightly, which ends its 7 week rising streak.

Turkish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks, as have U.S. 3 month bills.

And the U.S. 2 year bond is yielding less than the U.S. 3 month bill.

Equities had a slightly higher bias.

More indices joined the overbought extreme list.

While most indices closed either +/- 1% from last week but intra-week there were gyrations.

Brazil’s Bovespa returns overbought territory.

U.S. Regional Bank Index and the Nasdaq Transportation Index have risen for 4 weeks.

Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.

Chile’s IGPA is in a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Cocoa, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases and Distillates, Oats and Palm Oil dominated the losers category.

Natural Gas tanked 22% and erased half of the 39% gain seen in the previous 7 week winning streak.

The Baltic Dry Index also fell hard, wiping 19% of the 34% seen in the 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Rice is in a 4 week losing streak.

Wheat has slumped for 6 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio looks like it’s about to change direction in trend.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 5 week losing streak.

The Aussie fell except against the INR, JPY and USD.

Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie rose.

Euro as stronger, reversing last weeks weakness.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cocoa 10.2%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 3.4%, Lithium Carbonate 1.9%, Tin 3.4%, Orange Juice 12%, Palladium 2.7%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 2%, Uranium 2.6%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 6.1%, Gold rose between 1.5% – 2.4% across various currencies, All Word Developed ex USA 1%, KBW Banks 3.6%, DJ Transports 1.9%, BOVESPA 2.2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.2%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, KOSPI 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, PSE 1.5%, PX 1.7%, S&P 600 2%, TA35 3.6%, Nasdaq Transports 2.3%, WIG 3.5%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.8% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 2.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.7%), Brent Crude (4.1%), Baltic Dry Index (19.1%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Palm Oil (3.2%), Copper (1.9%), Heating Oil (7%), JKM LNG (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.8%), Newcastle Coal (2.4%), Natural Gas (22.2%), Nickel (2.5%), Gasoline (4.5%), Robusta (4%), S&P GSCI (3.4%), CRB Index (2.5%), Gasoil (6.9%), Oats (7.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), HSCEI (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.9%), SET (1.5%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (0.6%) and Vietnam fell 5.4%.

December 14, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending November 28, 2025)

November 30, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Baltic Dry Index

Tin

CAD/JPY *

CLP/USD

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 year government bond yield

Platinum

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Brazil’s Bovespa equity index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Korean and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

British 2 and 3 year bind yields

Polish 10 year government bond yield

Palm Oil

Cattle *

Dutch TTF Gas

And the ASX 200 equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose….

Except for those found in France, Spain and Great Britain.

The Australain 2 year bond yield is nearly overbought.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 6 weeks,

While Czech 10 year yields fell and broke their 5 week advance.

Equities had a terrific week.

Bounces were seen everywhere.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 7 week winning streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index rose and erased all of last week’s decline.

While the FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their 4 week losing streaks.

Commodities mostly firmed.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, the precious metals, Orange Juice and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Heating Oil, LNG, Rice, Gasoil and Dutch TTF Gas dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans are in a 7 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea along with Wheat prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Natural Gas have risen for 6 weeks and has soared 30% over that time.

Cocoa and Lumber rose and broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice soared 10% and halted a 4 week decline.

Cattle rose and ended its 6 week losing streak.

And Lean Hogs rose 4% and snapped an 8 week slump.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

The Yen’s weakness sees it various pairs in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie rose.

The Euro was mixed.

The USD was lower,

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is approaching oversold levels.

And Bitcoin (in USD) rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richard Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 3.5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, Cocoa 6.7%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.3%, Tin 2.6%, Natural Gas 3.1%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 9.6%, Palladium 5.9%, Plarinum 10.6%, Sugar 2.9%, SPGSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2%, Silver in AUD 11.1%, Silver in USD 12.7%, Gold rose between 2%-4% in various currencies, Corn 2%, Oats 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 1.6%, All World Developed ex USA 3.4%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 4.6%, BKX 4.1%, BUX 2.1%, CAC 1.8%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, FCATC 4.7%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IBB 3.8%, IBEX 3.5%, Bovespa 2.8%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.6%, Russell 2000 5.6%, TAIEX 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.2%, KSE 2.8%, Kospi 1.9%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 4%, Mexico 2.8%, NBI Biotech ETF 3.8%, Nasdaq 100 4.9%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 3%, Helsinki 2.7%, Stockholm 3.3%, PX 2.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 9.7%, IGPA 3%, S&P 500 3.7%, Nasdaq Transports 4.8%, TSX 4.1%, FTSE 100 1.9%, Vietnam 2.2%, WIG 2.7%, XBI 5.6%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5%, ASX Industrials 4.2% and the ASX Small Caps rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Heating Oil (3.8%), JKM LNG (3.3%), LNG in Yen (8%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Sugar #16 (1.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (3.7%) and Rice fell 3.5%.

November 30, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 24, 2025)

October 26, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Aluminium *

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

AEX

FTSE 250

Nifty

Sensex

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME)

Platinum

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Finland’s OMXH

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch & Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

U.S. 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF *

EUR/CHF *

JPY/CAD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Indonesian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate

Richards Bay Coal *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

Sugar

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell except for EU, U.S. and Japanese versions.

European 10’s rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate remains near being oversold even it moved from 2.3% to 2.4% during the week.

Portuguese and U.S, 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks as have U.S. 20’s.

U.S. 30’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

Austrian 10’s rose and broke 5 weeks of decline

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a good week.

We saw Chinese, British, Nasdaq Composite and the 100 return to overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI, Nifty, Sensex and Finland’s OMXH are in a 4 week winning streak.
The biotech indices have risen for 6 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 7 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 9 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Commodities were active, again.

Aluminium, Cocoa, Copper, Oils, Gases and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Lumber, Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Sugar, Rice, Silver and Gold dominated the losers category. 

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) fell and snapped a 9 week winning streak.

Cattle and Palladium fell enough to leave overbought territory.

Crude Oil bounces and easily erased the 5% decline of the previous fortnight.

Sugar registers an oversold quinella.

Oats rose and snapped its 4 weeks of decline.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 8 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list and many currencies reversing last week’s travel.

The Aussie and Loonie rose.

The Swissie as weaker.

Euro firmed.

The Yen fell.

And the Thai Baht rose against the USD to break 5 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 7.6%, Cocoa 7.2%, WTI Crude Oil 7.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 10.2%, Arabica Coffee 1.4%, LNG in Yen 2.3%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.5%, Orange Juice 3.6%, Gasoline 4.9%, Tin 2.7%, S&P GSCI 3.6%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 12.5%, Oats 4.8%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai 2.9%, CSI 300 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 1.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.6%, Cjina A50 3.6%, IDX 4.5%, DAX 1.7%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, FCATC 5.8%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 3.9%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3%, Russell 2000 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 5.1%, FTSE 250 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, Helsinki 5.5%, Stockholm 3.2%, SET 3.1%, SOX 2,9%, S&P 500 1.9%, STI 2.2%, WIG 3.4%, BIST 7.2% and the FTSE 100 rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index 3.8%), Palm Oil (2%), Lumber (7%), Cattle (3.3%), Palladium (2.7%), Sugar 3.4%, Silver in AUD (6.5%), Silver in USD (6.3%), Gold in AUD (3.6%), Gold in CAD (3.4%), Gold in CHF (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (2.5%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Gold in ZAR (5.8%), Rice (3.8%), PSE (1.7%), RUS10 (6.3%), VN Index (2.8%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 2%.

October 26, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

October 19, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Finnish10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index

CHF/AUD

COP/USD

GBP/JPY *

USD/CAD *

USD/KRW *

USD/SGD *

CAC Index

Vietnam’s VN equity index *

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle *

CHF/JPY *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

ASX Materials Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold Volatility Index *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

CHF/CAD

South Korea’s KOSPI *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, British, Greek and Dutch 10 year government bond yields

British 5 year bond yields

Cotton *

Nickel (Indian MCX)

Sugar (+2 month)

AUD/CHF

EUR/CHF

GBP/USD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

CAD/CHF

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield fell and snapped their 5 weeks rise.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is hovering above oversold territory.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate is also near being oversold.

European 10’s, U.S. 30’s and TBT & TBX have fallen for 4 weeks.

Austrian 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

And U.S. BB Corporate High Yield paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a mixed week, with gainers outpacing decliners.

We saw many equity indices leave overbought territory including those from China, France, Israel and Germany.

The S&P Biotech Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 6 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 8 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST have fallen 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 fell and broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance.

While the ASX Small Caps fell and snapped its winning streak at 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Aluminium, Coal, Coffee, Lumber and Precious Metals were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Sugar & Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Palladium and Platinum rejoined the overbought club.

Crude Oil has declined 5% over the past fortnight.

While the front month off Richards Bay Coal is oversold, the forward month contract rose 2.9%, which moved it out of oversold territory and snapping its 11 week losing streak.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 9 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell to its lowest reading since April 2020. Prior to that it was last seen at this level between Nov 2008 – Feb 2009 and matches the reading in February 1990.

Cocoa rose and broke its 8 week losing streak, which also moved it out of overbought territory.

Oats have lost ground for the past 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 7 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 8 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list.

The Aussie was subdued, with a bias for weakness.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie rose and appears in many extremes this week.

The Euro mostly fell.

The British Pound was firmer.

The DXY is back in overbought territory.

And the Thai Baht has fallen for 5 weeks versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.6%, Rotterdam Coal 3.7%, Copper 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, Lumber 3.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Palladium 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%m Gold in AUD 5.5%, Gold in CAD 5.9%, Gold in CHF 5.1%, Gold in EUR 5.6%, Gold in GBP 5.4%, Gold in USD 5.8%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Corn 2.3%, AEX 1.6%, CAC 3.2%, China A50 4.1%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 4%, IBB 2.8%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.9%, Russell 2000 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.9%, Mexico 1.9%, Nasdaq Biotechs 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 1.7%, SENSEX 1.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 600 3%, IGPA 4.9%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, S&P Biotech 2.7% & the ASX Materials index rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Brent Crude Oil (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (2.2%), Palm Oil (1.4%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (1.3%), Tin (3.5%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Orange Juice (10%), Sugar (3.7%), Gasoil (3%), Uranium (2.4%), Shanghai Composite (1.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), IDX (4.1%), DAX (1.7%), FCATC (6.9%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (4%), KRE Regional Banks (1.9%), OBX (1.7%), STI (2.2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2%.

October 19, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

September 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 5th, 2025)

September 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese, French, British, Greek Norwegian & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

30 year British bond yield 

IEF & IEI

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Italian 2 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR

AUD/CAD

BOVESPA 

IPC Mexico equity index 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in CHF & EUR

Shanghai Composite Index *  

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Israel’s TA 35 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in US and CAD

CSI 300 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian 10 year government bond yield  

U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Australian Coking Coal

Philippines PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

Some overbought entrants this week appeared as so due to intra week highs.

U.S. corporate bond yields are nearing oversold levels.

U.S. 7 year bond yields are close to some mean reversion.

Indonesian 10 year yields rose and broke a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 2 and 3 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 6 week losing streak. 

Indian 10 year yields fell and halted their 8 week climb, 

And June 2019 was the last time the U.S. 5 year real interest rate simultaneously mean reverted and registered an oversold extreme.

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

A couple Chinese indices left overbought extreme territory.

Shanghai, CSI 300, KBW Banks index, ASX 200 and FCATC fell and ended their 4 week winning streak.

The following indices are in 5 week winning streaks; Bovespa, Russell 2000, TSX and the ASX Small Caps.

While the HSCEI and Hang Seng rose.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Gases, Precious Metals and  Rubber were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Coffee, Coal, Lithium, Orange Juice, Sugar, Oats and Wheat dominated the losers category. 

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 5 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Tin and Uranium broke their 4 week winning.

Platinum has risen for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Cattle broke its 10 straight weeks of gains.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Euro and Swissie rose.

The CHF/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie fell.

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer, again.

The U.S. Dollar was slightly weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 5 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 6 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 1.6%, LNG in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 1.7%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold in AUD 3.8%, Gold in USD 4%, Rubber 2.9%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.7%, Gold in GBP 4%, Gold in CAD 4.7%, Gold in ZAR 3.7%, IBB 3.6%, KSE 3.8%, Mexico 3%, NBI 3.6%, SET 2.3%, SMI 1.5%, SOX 1.6%, IGPA 3.3%, IPSA 3.5%, XBI 6.3% and Canada’s TSX rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Brent Crude (2.9%), BDI (2.3%), Cocoa (3.1%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Arabica Coffee (3.2%), Lumber (1.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.6%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Nickel (1.4%), Orange Juice (5.2%), Robusta Coffee (10.5%), Sugar (5%), Tin (2.3%), CRB Index (1.5%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.9%), Oats (3.7%), Rice (2.3%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (2.8%), KBW Bank Index (1.6%), DAX (1.3%), Egypt (2.7%), FCATC (2.7%), BIST (5%) and Italy’s MIB fell 1.4%.

September 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 23, 2025)

May 25, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

U.S. 30 year government bond yield

Norwegian 10 year government bond yield

TBT & TBX

Platinum 

MYR/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread 

Gold in AUD and USD

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

USD/SEK

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.

IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.

Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.

Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.

U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought

And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.

The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.

The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.

Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.

Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.

Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.

Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak. 

Currencies were little more active.

The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.

The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.

USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.

The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%

The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.

The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.

And the Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.

May 25, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 2, 2025)

May 4, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SHY

MYR/USD

Mexico’s IPC equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

PHP/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

S&P GSCI (commodities) Index

USD/INR

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australian 2 year government bond yield *

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

USD/SEK *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None’

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose with her exception of Belgium, Brazil and the Japanese curve.

In fact, Brazilian 10’s are approaching overbought territory .

European (German) 10 year yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline. 

South Korean 10’s and Chilean 2’s ended their 4 weeks of lower travel.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 7 week declining streak.

Equities rose, everywhere, again.

The Netherland’s, Norway’s, Thailand’s, Canada’s, Poland’s main equity indices are in 4 week rising streaks.

As are the KBW Banks, the ASX’s Small Caps and Industrials along with some U.S. biotech indices.

Over the past 4 weeks, various indices have risen between 8%-13%.

Transportation indices and Thailand’s SET Index are no longer oversold.

Commodities were mostly lower.

The largest winners were Coals, Gases, Urea, Shipping Rates, Palladium and Uranium.

The notable losers included Oils & Distillates, Tin, Sugar Copper, Cocoa, Silver, Lumber and Coffee.

The big news is seeing Crude Oil prices return to oversold extremes.

Gold prices fell and those priced in USD, GBP and EUR left overbought territory.

Natural Gas broke its 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 5 straight weeks and has climbed to prices not seen since November 2022.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel & Rubber are no longer oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 100 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quiet, for a change of pace.

Continuing last weeks trend, many more currency pairs are not at extremes.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index rose and moved out from oversold territory.

The Aussie was stronger again and is in a 4 week rising streak against the Loonie, Euro and USD.

The Loonie was firmer.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Euro fell, 

And the JPY/AUD is in a 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 1.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 3.5%, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Natural Gas 16.6%, Palladium 1.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.8%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.3%, Uranium 4.4%, All Developed World – ex USA 2.9%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 4.3%, CAC 3.1%, DAX 3.8%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 4.3%, MIB 2.6%, HSCEI 1.9%, IDX 5.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAEIX 4.6%, Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, KLSE 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.6%, Nasdaq Biotechs 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 225 3.2%, Oslo 3.7%, Copenhagen 7%, Helsinki 3.9%, PSI 2.3%, Sensex 1.6%, SET 3.5%, SMI 2.6%, S&P 500 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.2%, ASX Financials 3.3%, ASX 200 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, ASX Industrials 2.6%, ASX SmallCaps 3%, IBB biotech ETF 2.7%, XBI biotech ETF 4.2% and the Philadelphia SOX Index rose 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.6%), Brent Crude Oil (6.9%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (7.5%), Lean Hogs (1.8%), Copper (4.4%), Heating Oil (5.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.5%), Lithium Carbonate (.2%), Tin (6.5%), Gasoline (4.1), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Sugar (5%), Sugar #16 (2.5%), SPGSCI (3.2%), CRB Index (2.7%), Gasoil (6.8%), Middle East Urea (1.9%), Silver in AUD (4%), Silver in USD (3.3%), Gold in AUD (3.1%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (2.5%), Gold in Euro (1.8%), Gold in GBP (2.1%), Gold in USD (2.4%), Gold in ZAR (3.9%), Corn (4%), Oats (5.7%), Rice (2.8%), Palm Oil (4.3%) and Turkiye’s BIST Index fell 2.8%.

May 4, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

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