Trying to hear what's not being said
January 23, 2025 Leave a comment
Here at the moments when Germany’s #DAX Index has registered a monthly overbought reading.
While there is more behind my analysis, this simple study suggests that those who allocate capital into #German equities might be dummkopf or perhaps foolish, if they haven’t got one foot out of the door.
January 23, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 28, 2024 Leave a comment
It was 3 years ago when the DAX Index last traded at such extremes.
Mean reversion (or convergence) beckons.
Institutional Asset Allocators…..if you were advised to ‘go long’ and deploy more capital this week, ask why?
I hope the answer isn’t because German (EU) 2’s are yielding the lowest in 2 years?
More ‘extremes’ will be listed in tomorrows edition of Macro Extremes.
September 28, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 20, 2024 Leave a comment
For the 8th time in the past 12 years, #Germany‘s DAX Index is registering a weekly overbought reading.
While there is more behind my analysis, this simple study shows that probabilities of a further advance change at this juncture.
Following such an occurrence, we mostly see the #DAX trade sideways, if not lower, for up to 24 months hence.
It’s not a time to chase.
That country #allocation trade began about 20 months in mid-2022.
50% ago.
This note listed that observation.
While the DAX is currently within its 7th consecutive week of higher prices and myopically, it looks like having a little more upside, the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
March 20, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 23, 2022 Leave a comment
The pessimism in Europe is not unwarranted, however the stock market is discounting much.
Around February 26 – March 8, 2022, the DAX equity index triggered a ‘trifecta oversold’ buy signal which bodes well for the longer term investor.
Around the price of 13,200 (similar to today’s level), the DAX registered an Oversold RSI level below 30, traded 2.5 standard deviations below its weekly mean and was below its 200 week moving average.
August 23, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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