Stay the course – March 2026 newsletter

It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.

The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.

A selection of equity indices are entering their 4th and 5th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6th week.

An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/

“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”

And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.

For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”

Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”


Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;

the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey




Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.

16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.

These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;

  • 1990 recession / Gulf War
  • 2002 post-dotcom washout
  • 2008 GFC (multiple clusters)
  • 2009 final lows
  • 2020 COVID shock
  • 2022 bear market
  • 2025–2026 (current regime stress)

These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;

  • forced selling
  • sentiment entrenchment
  • positioning exhaustion

In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.

As written in past newsletters, 

“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.

In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.

You can subscribe to my newsletter by click the button on the latest newsletter

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/stay-on-course-1

Macro Extremes (week ending March 20, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Brazilian, Chilan, Czech, Spanish, British, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese and U.S. government bond yields.

2-year Chilean and U.S. government bond yields.

3-year U.S. bond yields

5-year EU and U.S. bond yields

7-year U.S. bond yields

20 year U.S. bond yields

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields

TBX

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate spread

Cotton

Palm Oil *

Sugar

Oats *

AUC/CHF *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Aussie 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

10-year Japanese bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

CNH/USD

TAEIX *

KOSPI

OBX *

TA 35 Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, EU, British and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

British 3 & 5 year bond yields

Indonesian and Greek 10-year government bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Newcastle Coal *

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

AUD/ZAR

AUD/THB *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEI

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 5 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/AUD *

KRW/USD *

CAC Index

IDX Composite *

DAX Index

Nasdaq Composite

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

UAE’s DFM Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

EUR/AUD

GBP/AUD *

HKD/USD

JPY/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year bond yield spread

NZD/AUD *

INR/USD

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

More 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

Many more yield spreads are on this week’s list.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.

Equities continued their decline.

Austria’s ATX, Indonesia’s IDX, DJ Industrials, BOVESPA, S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NIFTY and ASX Financials have all declined for 4 straight weeks.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 8 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 8 weeks.

Australia’s Materials Index has slumped 20% within 3 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 27% over the past 8 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oils, LNG, Coffee, Sugar and Distillates were the notable gainers. 

Aluminium, Copper, Tn, Orange Juice, Palladium, Silver, Gold and Soybeans were amongst the decliners.

Gold in no longer overbought, no matter which currency.

Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 5 weeks straight.

Sugar #16 is in a 6-week winning streak.

Iron Ore fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

Soybeans fell and broke a 6 week winning streak

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.

And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since late November, 2025.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR fell and snapped a 12 week rising streak.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Euro rose.

The Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke a 6 week losing run.

CAD/JPY fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

While the Colombian Peso has declined for 5 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Richards Bay Coal 4.6%, Brent Crude 8.8%, WTI Crude 1.9%, Cotton 2.2%, Heating Oil 13.8%, JKM LNG 18.4%, Arabica Coffee 8.6%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen9.5%, Newcastle Coal 7.5%, Gasoline 8%, Robusta Coffee 6.1%, Sugar 9.3%, Sugar #16 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 16.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.2%, Gasoil 19%, KBW Banks 1.6%, EGX 1.8%, KOSPI 5.4%, SET 1.7%, STI 2.2%, TA35 3.3% and Dubai’s DFM Index rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (8.8%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (6.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.1%), Tin (8.4%), Natural Gas (2%), Orange Juice (19%), Palladium (8.5%), Platinum (3.5%), Uranium (2.9%), Silver in AUD (16.2%), Silver in USD (15.8%), Gold in AUD (11%), Gold in CAD (10.5%), Gold in CHF (10.8%), Gold in EUR (11.6%), Gold in GBP (11.2%), Gold in USD (10.5%), Gold in ZAR (10.2%), Oats (4.9%), Rice (2.5%), Soybean (5.2%), Wheat (3%), Shanghai Composite (3.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), AEX (4%), ATX (1.3%), CAC (3.1%), DAX (4.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), FCATC (4.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBB (2.3%), IBEX (2%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), FTSE 250 (3.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.6%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (5.1%), South Africa 40 (4.8%), SMI (4%), IGPA (1.7%), S&P 500 (1.9%), TSX (3.8%), FTSE (3.3%), Vietnam (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.2%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Smal Caps fell 4%.

March 22, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending November 28, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Baltic Dry Index

Tin

CAD/JPY *

CLP/USD

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 year government bond yield

Platinum

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Brazil’s Bovespa equity index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Korean and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

British 2 and 3 year bind yields

Polish 10 year government bond yield

Palm Oil

Cattle *

Dutch TTF Gas

And the ASX 200 equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose….

Except for those found in France, Spain and Great Britain.

The Australain 2 year bond yield is nearly overbought.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 6 weeks,

While Czech 10 year yields fell and broke their 5 week advance.

Equities had a terrific week.

Bounces were seen everywhere.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 7 week winning streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index rose and erased all of last week’s decline.

While the FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their 4 week losing streaks.

Commodities mostly firmed.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, the precious metals, Orange Juice and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Heating Oil, LNG, Rice, Gasoil and Dutch TTF Gas dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans are in a 7 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea along with Wheat prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Natural Gas have risen for 6 weeks and has soared 30% over that time.

Cocoa and Lumber rose and broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice soared 10% and halted a 4 week decline.

Cattle rose and ended its 6 week losing streak.

And Lean Hogs rose 4% and snapped an 8 week slump.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

The Yen’s weakness sees it various pairs in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie rose.

The Euro was mixed.

The USD was lower,

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is approaching oversold levels.

And Bitcoin (in USD) rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richard Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 3.5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, Cocoa 6.7%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.3%, Tin 2.6%, Natural Gas 3.1%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 9.6%, Palladium 5.9%, Plarinum 10.6%, Sugar 2.9%, SPGSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2%, Silver in AUD 11.1%, Silver in USD 12.7%, Gold rose between 2%-4% in various currencies, Corn 2%, Oats 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 1.6%, All World Developed ex USA 3.4%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 4.6%, BKX 4.1%, BUX 2.1%, CAC 1.8%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, FCATC 4.7%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IBB 3.8%, IBEX 3.5%, Bovespa 2.8%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.6%, Russell 2000 5.6%, TAIEX 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.2%, KSE 2.8%, Kospi 1.9%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 4%, Mexico 2.8%, NBI Biotech ETF 3.8%, Nasdaq 100 4.9%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 3%, Helsinki 2.7%, Stockholm 3.3%, PX 2.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 9.7%, IGPA 3%, S&P 500 3.7%, Nasdaq Transports 4.8%, TSX 4.1%, FTSE 100 1.9%, Vietnam 2.2%, WIG 2.7%, XBI 5.6%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5%, ASX Industrials 4.2% and the ASX Small Caps rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Heating Oil (3.8%), JKM LNG (3.3%), LNG in Yen (8%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Sugar #16 (1.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (3.7%) and Rice fell 3.5%.

November 30, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CNH/USD

MYR/USD

THB/USD

HSCEI Index

IPC Mexico equity index *

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50 *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

USD/SEK *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

NZD/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand

It was a boring week in bonds.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.

Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.

New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.

Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.

The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.

The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.

While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.

Commodities were generally quiet.

Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category. 

Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.

While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.

The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.

JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.

And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.

September 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending August 22, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Chinese, British and Dutch 10 year government bond yields  

British 30 year bond yields 

FCATC Index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Indian 10 year government bond yields  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

All World Developed (ex USA) equity index 

Hungary’s BUX Index * 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index * 

Italy’s MIB 

Spain’s IBEX * 

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index * 

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices 

Isreal’s TA35 

Canada’s TSX * 

FTSE 100 

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

The ASX 200 * 

ASX Industrials 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Shanghai Composite Index * 

CSI 300 

China’s A50 equity index

 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Rice 

AUD/SGD 

NZD/USD 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesian 10 year government bond yield  

Lumber * 

CAD/EUR 

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell…… 

with the exception of British, Japanese and Brazilians. 

Turkish 10 year and Chilean 2 year yields rose and broke their 4 week declining streaks.  

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold this week and in a 4 week losing streak. 

Indian 10’s have climbed for 7 weeks. 

Russian 10 year bonds yield rose and broke 13 straight weeks of decline. 

Equities rose nearly everywhere, again. 

This week sees the FTSE 100 and the ASX Industrials join many other overbought indices. 

While Chinese indices register an overbought extreme quinella. 

The Nordic bourse, U.S. midcaps, U.S. banks and Aussie financials all had a good week. 

Czechia’s OX Index fell and ended a 7 week winning streak. 

Bangkok fell and broke its 8 week winning streak. 

Karachi is in a 9 week winning streak. 

Commodities were mainly firmer. 

Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Coffee and Cattle were the notable gainers. 

Coal, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

This week Lithium Hydroxide followed its Carbonate peer leaving oversold territory  

Palladium, Wheat and Hesting Oil rose and broke its 4-week losing streak. 

Robusta Coffee and Cattle prices are in a 9-week winning streak. 

Henry Hub Natural Gas is in a 5-week losing streak.  

And Oats have fallen for 7 weeks. 

Currencies saw some movement. 

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker, again. 

Swissie rose, again. 

The USD was mostly weaker, again. 

The BRL/USD fell to end its 4 straight weeks of gains. 

The Colombina Peso has risen for 4 weeks against the USD. 

The AUD has fallen for 4 weeks against the GBP. 

The Yen and Euro were firmer. 

And the U.S. Dollar fell versus the Indian Rupee to end its 7-week rising streak. 

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.3%, Brent Crude Oil 2.9%, WTI Crude Oil 2.7%, Cattle 3.1%, Heating Oil 3.7%, JKM LNG 5.5%, Arabica Coffee 13.2%, LNG in Yen 2.2%, Gasoline 4.5%, Robusta Coffee 15.8%, S&P GSCI 2%, CRB Index 1.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.2%, Gasoil 3.7%, Uranium 1.7%, Silver in AUD 2.5%, Silver in USD 2.3%, Soybean 1.5%, Shanghai 3.5%, CSI 300 4.2%, AEX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.5%, China A50 4.7%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, DJ Transports 2.8%, Oslo 1.9%, Copenhagen 3.7%, Helsinki 1.9%, Stockholm 1.8%, SMI 1.6%, S&P 500 0.3%, Nasdaq Transports 1.5%, TSX 1.5%, FTSE 100 2%, ASX Financials 3.5%, ASX Industrials 2.5% and BIST rose 4.6%. 

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (3.3%), Baltic Dry Index (4.9%), Cocoa (6%), Natural Gas (7.5%), Orange Juice (2.1%), Oats (2.7%), Rice (8.2%), ATX (1.2%), TAIEX (2.3%), Nasdaq Composite (0.6%), KOSPI (1.8%), Nikkei 225 (1.7%), WIG (1.6%) and the ASX Materials fell 2.4%.

August 24, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending August 15, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

EU, French, Indian and Dutch 10 year government bond yields 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index *

FCATC Index

Malaysia’s KLSE

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

Shanghai Composite Index *

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

The ASX 200 

And the ASX Small Cap Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian 10 year government bond yield

Lumber

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Russian 10 year government bond yield *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed,

Turkish 10 year and Chilean 2 year yields are in 4 week declining streaks. 

Indian 10’s have climbed for 6 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 13 straight weeks.

Equities rose, everywhere, adding to last week’s beefy advances.

U.S. biotechs, transports, small and mid caps were amongst the better performers.

Austria’s ATX, Malaysia’s KLSE, the FTSE China FCTAC and a few Australian equity indices join many other indices are in overbought territory.

Egypt fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

Czechia’s main indices have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Karachi & Bangkok have put together 8 week winning streaks.

Istanbul’s winning run stopped at 7 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 is a hair away from registering an overbought reading.

Indonesia’s IDX has climber 34% since its oversold quinella seen in March 2025.

While the Sensex and Nifty rose and broke their 6 week losing streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Palm Oil, Coffee, Lithium, Orange Juice and Soybeans Cocoa were the notable gainers.

Coal, Lumber, Gases, Oil and Distillates dominated the losers category.

The big news is that Lithium Carbonate rose enough for it to end its 98 week stay in oversold territory.

Palladium has declined 15% in the past 4 weeks, since registering an overbought quinella.

Cattle prices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Heating Oil, Wheat, Palladium, Gasoil and Henry Hub Natural Gas are in 4 week losing streaks. 

Oats and U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel have fallen for 6 weeks.

Arabica and Robusta Coffee have soared 20% and 25% respectively over the past fortnight. 

And Lumber prices have sunken 13% over the past 2 weeks.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker.

Swissie and Pound Sterling rose.

The USD was mostly weaker. 

As the BRL/USD has risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Yen fell to mimic the continued ‘risk-on’ mood,

And the U.S. Dollar is in a 7 week rising streak versus the Indian Rupee.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 3.7%, Palm Oil 5.1%, Arabica Coffee 10.5%, Cattle 2.1%, Lithium Carbonate 5%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.6%, Orange Juice 4.8%, Robusta Coffee 18%, Urea Middle East 2%, Uranium 1.5%, Soybeans 5.6%, Shanghai Composite 1.7%, CSI 300 2.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.9%, ATX 2.7%, CAC 2.3%, China A50 2%, IDX 4.8%, DJ Industrials 1.7%, DJ Transports 2.1%, FCATC 3.9%, MIB 2.5%, HSCEI 1.6%, Hang Seng 1.7%, IBB 5.1%, IBEX 3.1%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 3.1%, Nasdaq Composite 0.8%, KRE Regional Banks 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 1.6%, NBI 5%, Nikkei 225 3.7%, Stockholm 1.5%, PX 1.6%, SMI 1.8%, IGPA 2.5%, S&P 500 0.9%, IPSA 2.6%, Nasdaq Transports 4.3%, Vietnam 2.8%, XBI 6.2%, ASX 200 1.5% and the ASX Materials Index rose 3.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (3.2%), Richards Bay Coal (2%), WTI Crude Oil (1.7%), EHR Steel (1.4%), Heating Oil (2.3%), JKM LNG (4.3%), Lumber (6.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (4.5%), Natural Gas (2.5%), Palladium (2.2%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.4%), Gasoil (2.1%), Gold in AUD (1.6%), Gold in CHF (2%), Gold in EUR (2.4%), Gold in GBP (2.6%), Gold in USD (1.9%), Oats (1.5%) and Wheat fell 1.6%.

August 17, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending June 27, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium

Uranium

Shanghai Composite

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Platinum * 

KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. (DXY) Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/CHF

CAD/EUR

HKD/USD *

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields generally fell, again, again….

Except for Japanese yields where the 5’s and 10’s broke their 4 week falling streak.

High Yield Corporates are nearing oversold territory.

U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be a maximum bullishness.

Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

The Chinese 10’s have done so for 4 weeks.

U.S. 2 year bond yields are near longer term mean reversion,

While the U.S. 3 year yields already did so.

Equities were had a good week.

Asian indices fared well with the Shanghai Composite registering an overbought reading.

South Korea’s KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 4 week winning streak. 

Norway’s OMX broke its 4 week winning streak.

Indonesias IDX broke its 4 week losing streak.

Thailand’s SET index broke it 6 consecutive weeks of losses.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Oils, Distillates and Gases dominated the losers, along with the Softs.

The Copper/Gold Ratio rose notably which aligned with the ‘rick-on’ appetite seen in equities.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 10% and 24% over the past fortnight.

Gold prices fell and as such Gold Volatility mean reverted.

Tin looks like its set for a higher move as it registers a 4 week winning streak.

Platinum has also risen for 4 week straight, advancing 25% during that time.

Robusta Coffee has sunk for 9 consecutive weeks.

And Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.

Currencies were active.

The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index appearing in oversold territory.

And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme treading this week.

The Aussie was mixed. It was weaker versus the Europeans and stronger in Asia and the USD.

Brazil’s Real is in a 4 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Loonie was mostly weaker with the CAD/EUR in a 4 week losing streak.

The Swissie was stronger and the CHF/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.

EUR/JPY has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

GBP was stronger.

Yen was mixed.

PHP/USD broke its 4 week losing streak

And the USD/INR broke its 4 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Cocoa 9.2%, Cotton 3,9%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 1.7%, Tin 3.3%, Nickel 1.5%, Palladium 9.2%, Platinum 5.8%, Uranium 2.5%, Oats 2.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.8%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks Index 5.6%, DAX 2.9%, Dj Industrials 3.9%, DJ Transports 4.9%, Egypt 9.1%, FCATC Index 4.5%, HSCEI 2.8%, Hang Seng 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3%, TAIEX 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.3%, KLSE 1.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 3.6% FTSE 250 2.7%, Mexico 2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.6%, Nasdaq 100 4.2%, Nikkei 225 4.6%, NIFTY 2.1%, Stockholm 2.4%, SENSEX 2%, SOX 6.4%, S&P 500 3.4%, STI 2.1%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, WIG 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX Materials 1.8%.


For reference, the ASX 200 rose 0.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.6%), Brent Crude (12.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.3%), Baltic Dry Index (10%), DXY Index (1.5%), Palm Oil (2.6%), Heating Oil (10.5%), HRC (2.4%), JKM LNG (7.4%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (13,3%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Natural Gas (6.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Gasoline (10.4%), Robusta Coffee (2.2%), Sugar (1.8%), S&P GSCI (6.1%), CRB Index (4.,1%), Dutch TTF Gas (14.1%), Gasoil (11%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (5.1%), Gold in EUR (4.4%), Gold in GBP (4.7%), Gold in USD (2.8%), Gold in ZAR (4%), Corn (2.8%), Rice (2%), Soybeans (3.4%), Wheat (7.3%), OBX (2.2%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.6%.

June 29, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending April 25, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/ZAR *

CAD/USD *

JPY/USD

NZD/AUD *

NZD/USD *

PHP/USD *

THB/USD *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf) *

USD/IDR

Czechia’s PX Index

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

EUR/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 3 & 5 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

South Korean 10 year bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

CAD/CHF *

USD/CAD *

USD/MXN *

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Rubber *

USD/SEK *

Dow Jones Transports *

Nasdaq Transports *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 2 year government bond yield

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed.

The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 6 week declining streak.

Notably, Australian 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.

German 10’s have fallen for 6 straight weeks while German 2’s broke 6 weeks of declines.

The latter also reverted to a long term mean.

Chinese 10’s broke 4 week losing streak.

Polish 10 year yields rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.

Equities rose, everywhere.

Equities had a another stellar week.

As a result, this week several equity indices have left the oversold list.

Many indices are in 3 week rising streaks.

For example, the DAX has risen 9% in the past fortnight.

And as mentioned in last week edition, for now, continues to look like April 4th-7th may signal the lows for global equities. 

Commodities were mainly higher, again.

The largest winners were Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Tin, Hogs, Tin and Shipping Rates.

Gold fell (albeit slightly) across various currency pricing.

Gases, Orange Juice, Palladium, Rice and Wheat were counted amongst the few losers.

Natural Gas is in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Baltic Dry Index snapped it 5 straight weeks of decline. 

Sugar broke its 4 week losing streak. 

Gold as priced in ZAR ended its 6 weeks of advance. 

And Gold in AUD 7 week winning streak also came to an end.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 99 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

A few currency pairs have left the list this week.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

The British Pound was stronger again.

The Loonie was mixed.

The Euro is overbought against the USD.

The USD/JPY is at oversold levels.

And the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index barely rose to break its 5 consecutive weeks of decline and it did drag it out of oversold territory.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.4%, Baltic Dry Index 8.8%, Cocoa 13.2%, Cotton 2.5%, Lean Hogs 3.2%, Copper 2.1%, U.S. Midwest HRC 3.4%, Coffee 7.3%, Cattle 2.1%, Tin 4.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Sugar 2.2%, Uranium 2.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Oats 5.2%, Palm Oil 2.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, AEX 2.4%, AEX 3.7%, KBW Banks 5.7%, BUX 6.8%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 4.9%, DJ Industrials 2.5%, Egypt 1.9%, MIB 3.8%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 3.4%, BOVESPA 3.9%, IDX 3.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.7%, Russell 2000 4.1%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.9%, KOSPI 2.5%, FTSE 250 1.9%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.4%, Nikkei 225 2.8%, Stockholm 3%, PSI 2.2%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 4.6%, IPSA & IGPA 2.2%, STI 2.8%, TSX 2.1%, FTSE 100 1.7%, WIG 5.3%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 2.8%, IBB Biotech ETF 4.2% and XBI Biotech ETF rose 5.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

WTI Crude Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (6.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Natural Gas (9.5%), Orange Juice (12.9%), Palladium (2.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9%), Rice (2.1%) and Wheat fell 3.1%.

April 27, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending April 18, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/IDR

AUD/ZAR *

CAD/USD *

EUR/GBP

NZD.AUD

NZD/USD

PHP/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

EUR/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

Australian 3 and 5 year bond yields

Polish 10 year bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

USD/CAD

USD/MXN

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Shanghai Rebar

Rubber

AUD/EUR

RMB

USD/DKK

USD/SEK

Dow Jones Transports

S&P SmallCap 600

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Transports

IBB Biotech ETF

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 2 year government bond yield

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

CAD/CHF

AUD/CHF

USD/CHF

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell except for those in Japan.

The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Norwegian 10 year yields are in a 5 week declining streak.

Notably, Australian 2, 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.

European 10’s have fallen for 5 straight weeks while Euro 2’s have done so for 6 weeks.

Equities rose, again.

Equities had a good week, except for the American indices.

All of the equity indices which were in last weeks oversold list, are not there anymore.

For now, it looks like April 4th/7th may signal the lows for global equities. 

The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki broke their 5 weeks falling streak

Copenhagen broke its 6 week losing streak.

The IBB Biotech ETF broke its 7 weeks of decline.

Commodities were mainly higher.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 3% over the past fortnight.

Many commodities which were oversold last week are no longer so, including uranium.

Cocoa, Coal, Natural Gas, Palm Oil & Tin were counted amongst the few losers.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Sugar has declined for 4 weeks straight.

Gold as priced in ZAR has risen for 6 weeks. 

Gold in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 98 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

The Aussie rose.

The Loonie was weaker against all except the USD.

The British Pound was stronger as was the Kiwi.

The Yen was mixed as the USD/JPY is approaching oversold levels.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Notably, the Swissie is at oversold extremes against some risk currencies.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.4%, Brent Crude 4.6%, WTI Crude 5.2%, Lean Hogs 5%, Copper 4.8%, Heating Oil 4.1%, JKM LNG 4.9%, Arabica Coffee 5.4%, Cattle 3.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 7.3%, Nickel 3.6%, Orange Juice 8.9%, Palladium 6%, Platinum 3.4%, Gasoline 4.9%, S&P GSCI 2.6%, CRB Index 2.1%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.6%, Gasoil 6.2%, Gold in CAD 2.7%, Gold in CHF 3.3%, Gold in EUR 2.7%, Gold in USD 2.8%, Oats 3.1%, All World Developed ex USA 4.1%, AEX 4%, ATX 5.4%, KBW Bank Index 1.9%, BUX 2.5%, CAC 2.6%, DAX 4.1%, FTSE 100 5.7%, Hang Seng 2.3%, IBEX 5.1%, Bovespa 1.5%, IDX 2.9%, KLSE 3.1%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 2.1%, KOSPI 2.1%, FTSE 250 4%, Mexico 3%, Nasdaq Biotechs 1.5%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, NIFTY 4.5%, Oslo 2.8%, Copenhagen 4%, Helsinki 3.7%, PX 3.2%, Russell 2000 1.6%, South Africa40 4%, SENSEX  4.5%, SET 2%, SMI 3.8%, IGPA 4.8%, IPSA 5.2%, STI 5.9%, TA35 3%, TSX 2.6%, FTSE 100 3.9%, WIG 4.4%, ASX Financials 3.2%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASX Materials 3.2%, ASX SmallCaps 2.3% and the XBI Biotech ETF rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Cocoa (1.7%), Newcastle Coal (2%), Natural Gas (8%), Palm Oil (4.2%), Tin (2.1%), Corn (1.6%), Wheat (1.3%), Dow Jones Industrials (2.6%), Nasdaq Composite (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.3%), SOX (4%) and the S&P 500 fell 1.5%.

April 20, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au