Macro Extremes (week ending November 28, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Baltic Dry Index

Tin

CAD/JPY *

CLP/USD

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 year government bond yield

Platinum

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Brazil’s Bovespa equity index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Korean and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

British 2 and 3 year bind yields

Polish 10 year government bond yield

Palm Oil

Cattle *

Dutch TTF Gas

And the ASX 200 equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose….

Except for those found in France, Spain and Great Britain.

The Australain 2 year bond yield is nearly overbought.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 6 weeks,

While Czech 10 year yields fell and broke their 5 week advance.

Equities had a terrific week.

Bounces were seen everywhere.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 7 week winning streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index rose and erased all of last week’s decline.

While the FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their 4 week losing streaks.

Commodities mostly firmed.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, the precious metals, Orange Juice and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Heating Oil, LNG, Rice, Gasoil and Dutch TTF Gas dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans are in a 7 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea along with Wheat prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Natural Gas have risen for 6 weeks and has soared 30% over that time.

Cocoa and Lumber rose and broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice soared 10% and halted a 4 week decline.

Cattle rose and ended its 6 week losing streak.

And Lean Hogs rose 4% and snapped an 8 week slump.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

The Yen’s weakness sees it various pairs in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie rose.

The Euro was mixed.

The USD was lower,

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is approaching oversold levels.

And Bitcoin (in USD) rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richard Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 3.5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, Cocoa 6.7%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.3%, Tin 2.6%, Natural Gas 3.1%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 9.6%, Palladium 5.9%, Plarinum 10.6%, Sugar 2.9%, SPGSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2%, Silver in AUD 11.1%, Silver in USD 12.7%, Gold rose between 2%-4% in various currencies, Corn 2%, Oats 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 1.6%, All World Developed ex USA 3.4%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 4.6%, BKX 4.1%, BUX 2.1%, CAC 1.8%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, FCATC 4.7%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IBB 3.8%, IBEX 3.5%, Bovespa 2.8%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.6%, Russell 2000 5.6%, TAIEX 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.2%, KSE 2.8%, Kospi 1.9%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 4%, Mexico 2.8%, NBI Biotech ETF 3.8%, Nasdaq 100 4.9%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 3%, Helsinki 2.7%, Stockholm 3.3%, PX 2.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 9.7%, IGPA 3%, S&P 500 3.7%, Nasdaq Transports 4.8%, TSX 4.1%, FTSE 100 1.9%, Vietnam 2.2%, WIG 2.7%, XBI 5.6%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5%, ASX Industrials 4.2% and the ASX Small Caps rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Heating Oil (3.8%), JKM LNG (3.3%), LNG in Yen (8%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Sugar #16 (1.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (3.7%) and Rice fell 3.5%.

November 30, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending April 25, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/ZAR *

CAD/USD *

JPY/USD

NZD/AUD *

NZD/USD *

PHP/USD *

THB/USD *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf) *

USD/IDR

Czechia’s PX Index

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

EUR/USD * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 3 & 5 year bond yields *

German and Italian 2 year bond yields *

South Korean 10 year bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

CAD/CHF *

USD/CAD *

USD/MXN *

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Richards Bay Coal *

U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Rubber *

USD/SEK *

Dow Jones Transports *

Nasdaq Transports *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 2 year government bond yield

Indian 10 year government bond yield *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed.

The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 6 week declining streak.

Notably, Australian 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.

German 10’s have fallen for 6 straight weeks while German 2’s broke 6 weeks of declines.

The latter also reverted to a long term mean.

Chinese 10’s broke 4 week losing streak.

Polish 10 year yields rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.

Equities rose, everywhere.

Equities had a another stellar week.

As a result, this week several equity indices have left the oversold list.

Many indices are in 3 week rising streaks.

For example, the DAX has risen 9% in the past fortnight.

And as mentioned in last week edition, for now, continues to look like April 4th-7th may signal the lows for global equities. 

Commodities were mainly higher, again.

The largest winners were Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Tin, Hogs, Tin and Shipping Rates.

Gold fell (albeit slightly) across various currency pricing.

Gases, Orange Juice, Palladium, Rice and Wheat were counted amongst the few losers.

Natural Gas is in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Baltic Dry Index snapped it 5 straight weeks of decline. 

Sugar broke its 4 week losing streak. 

Gold as priced in ZAR ended its 6 weeks of advance. 

And Gold in AUD 7 week winning streak also came to an end.

while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 99 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were very active, again.

A few currency pairs have left the list this week.

Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.

The British Pound was stronger again.

The Loonie was mixed.

The Euro is overbought against the USD.

The USD/JPY is at oversold levels.

And the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index barely rose to break its 5 consecutive weeks of decline and it did drag it out of oversold territory.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.4%, Baltic Dry Index 8.8%, Cocoa 13.2%, Cotton 2.5%, Lean Hogs 3.2%, Copper 2.1%, U.S. Midwest HRC 3.4%, Coffee 7.3%, Cattle 2.1%, Tin 4.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Sugar 2.2%, Uranium 2.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Oats 5.2%, Palm Oil 2.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, AEX 2.4%, AEX 3.7%, KBW Banks 5.7%, BUX 6.8%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 4.9%, DJ Industrials 2.5%, Egypt 1.9%, MIB 3.8%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 3.4%, BOVESPA 3.9%, IDX 3.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.7%, Russell 2000 4.1%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.9%, KOSPI 2.5%, FTSE 250 1.9%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.4%, Nikkei 225 2.8%, Stockholm 3%, PSI 2.2%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 4.6%, IPSA & IGPA 2.2%, STI 2.8%, TSX 2.1%, FTSE 100 1.7%, WIG 5.3%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 2.8%, IBB Biotech ETF 4.2% and XBI Biotech ETF rose 5.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

WTI Crude Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (6.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Natural Gas (9.5%), Orange Juice (12.9%), Palladium (2.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9%), Rice (2.1%) and Wheat fell 3.1%.

April 27, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending March 21, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Swiss and Czech 10 year government bond yields *

Copper/Gold Ratio *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Cattle

EUR/USD

NZD/AUD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Austria’s ATX *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Germany’s DAX Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

Spain’s IBEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Czech Republic’s PX Index *

Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

10 year Turkish government bind yield

Copper *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

CAD/EUR

SEK/USD

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P SmallCaps 600 Index *

Nasdaq Composite *

Malaysia’s KLSE 

Nasdaq 100 *

And the S&P 500 

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal *

Orange Juice *

Uranium *

Indonesia’s IDX 30

And Thailand’s SET Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Indian 10 year government bond yield

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The few yields that rose were British, Indonesian and Japanese.

Many of last weeks extreme entrants have left, including the high bond yields.

The U.S. 10 year minus German 10 year spread moved out of oversold territory.

And Norwegian 10’s are not far away from an all-time high.

Equities were stronger.

A host of last week’s oversold names no longer appear,

While many of the overbought names are repeat entrants and seem embedded.

Weakness was seen in Chinese, Hong Kong, Swedish and Indonesian markets.

The main Vietnamese index along with some Hong Kong indices left the overbought extremes.

The former broke its 8 week advance.

Thailand’s SET broke its 7 consecutive weeks of losses.

Brazil’s BOVESPA has risen 12% since appearing as oversold in a late December 2024 edition of this weekly publication.

Interestingly, it has climbed 7.6% in the past 3 weeks compared to the 5% decline seen in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over that same time.

The Nasdaq Biotech Index is in a 4 week losing streak.

The Nasdaq Transports and the FTSE 250 have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 8 weeks.

The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000, Amsterdam’s AEX, Philly’s SOX, Nasdaq Transports, the Nasdaq Composite, the ASX Industrials and the ASX 200 all broke their declining streaks ranging between 5 and 7 weeks.

India’s Nifty and Sensex had a good week.

And Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices have climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Commodities while active, were slightly subdued when compared to the rate of change seem in past weeks.

Oil and distillates rose as did Coffee, Sugar and Cattle.

Tin and Silver fell from being overbought.

Aluminium, Cotton, Coal, Platinum and Natural Gas were amongst the largest decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio remains overbought.

Natural Gas prices have fallen 10% over the past fortnight.

Cocoa has fallen for 7 of the past 8 weeks and is in a 5 week losing streak.

Heating Oil and the Baltic Dry Index broke its 4 weeks of declines.

Gasoline and Rubber ended their 5 week losing streaks.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke it 7 consecutive weeks of gains.

Orange Juice snapped its 12 weeks of consecutive losses.

Australian Coking Coal is at its lowest weekly close since November 2021.

while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 94 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were mostly quiet and uneventful.

Many of the currencies in last weeks list have departed. 

The Aussie fell and has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks against the Euro.

The Loonie rose and did the U.S. Dollar.

The Euro mainly fell.

The British Pound was firmer. 

The GBP/JPY has risen for 4 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude 2.3%, WTI Crude 2%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 3.8%, Cattle 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.5% ,Gasoline 2.2%, Robusta Coffee 2.2%, Sugar 2.8%, Sugar #16 3.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 1.6%, Gold in AUD 2.2%, Gold in EUR 1.9%, Oats 3.5%, KBW Bank Index 2.8%, BUX 2.4%, IBEX 2.7%, BOVESPA 2.6%, KSE 2.5%, KOSPI 3%, Nikkei 225 1.7%, NIFTY 4.3%, Oslo 2%, SA40 1.8%, SENSEX 4.2%, Strait Times 2.4%, TSX 1.7%, ASX Financials 2.2%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 2.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (2.7%), Cotton (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (4.7%), Natural Gas (3%), Platinum (3.4%), Tin (2.5%), Silver in USD (2.3%), Rice (1.7%), Shanghai (1.6%), CSI 300 (2.3%), China A50 (3.2%), HSCEI (1.5%), IDX 30 (4.4%) and Stockholm fell 2%.

March 23, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au