Trying to hear what's not being said
May 22, 2025 Leave a comment
I’m not surprised by yesterday’s report that British inflation rose.
It’s currently 3.5%.
13 months ago, I wrote about the extreme lows being seen then and that 5% was my prediction (and remains so) to where UK inflation would move to.
And so I think UK inflation will rise further together with other correlated assets and securities.
May 22, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 17, 2024 Leave a comment
I am posturing for higher #inflation rates, again.
My expectations (found in my historical posts) for ‘lower’ inflation has occurred and is as good as being completed.
Following up my note dated April 11, 2024, suggesting the irrelevance of the U.K. March inflation report,
While inflation has abated, now it doesn’t matter so much whether this month’s #UnitedKingdom inflation rate of 3.2% is lower than last months (year on year) figure of 3.4%.
Keep in mind, that prices are still rising and I think that is mostly a cause of capacity and supply constraints rather than notable demand.
My thinking is that #UK inflation will move to 5% rather than 2%.
Slowing demand means companies will increases prices for goods and services, in order to maintain their shrinking margins.
April 17, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 5, 2023 Leave a comment
My previous post summarised my early 2023 reasoning to avoid the FTSE 100. Whilst that index is only 5% lower since then, the way I look at it, is there was little purpose to being actually exposed to the risk.
Today, the price action tells me that the #ftse100 needs to make a higher high’ to break it out of a consolidation funk.
Should it trade below 7,215, then probability of a move to the 7,030 area increases.
That is a further 5% below today’s level.
December 5, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 21, 2023 Leave a comment
What if British inflation reverted to a mean which is equally converging.
Maybe somewhere near that flag, perhaps 6% by Jan-April 2024?
June 21, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 