I’m not buying Oil on the sound of cannons

June 13, 2025 Leave a comment

Why y’all chasing the oil price now?…….It’s too late.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude touched below $55 and $58 respectively, on 2 occasions in April and May 2025.

Today, somebody (hedge funds, oil traders, corporate treasury, speculators) paid $78. The odds (and probability) of being long oil have changed.

Today’s price action is clogged up in Israel’s attack on Iran.

The time for preparedness of entering the long oil trade was around these dates when I wrote about it;

April 4, 2024

“I need to respect the rising probability of $55 on WTI Crude.”

Oil is moving into new territory

April 15, 2025

“It could coincide with #Brent Crude trading down to $58.”

Still waiting for lower oil prices and their proxies

May 8, 2025

“The prices of the 3 stocks mentioned (BP, Woodside and Occidental) recently all touched the prices mentioned in that September 4, 2024 note.”

Oil stocks have fallen, now what?

Let’s wait until next time, for a new moment to buy Oil.

Send me an email if you’re interested in hiring my services.

June 13, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Still waiting for lower oil prices and their proxies

April 15, 2025 Leave a comment

One year ago today, I disagreed when the former CEO of #Shell suggested the #SHEL stock price was undervalued.

Shell – wrong call at wrong time

My timing seems to be off by 6 months, but I still think that the price of Shell will trade down to GBP 21.70 area ‘soon’.

It could coincide with #Brent Crude trading down to $58.

April 15, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Oil is moving into new territory

April 4, 2025 Leave a comment

#Oil has traded to $64, as per

Crude Oil still consolidating

Just broken $61.75, as per

Still waiting and watching Oil prices

and made a new ‘lower low’,

I need to respect the rising probability of $55 on WTI #Crude.

And all of what that means for oil related securities and assets.

April 4, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

n.b. clients will receive more pointed commentary

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Still waiting and watching Oil prices

December 9, 2024 Leave a comment

The setup for the oil price isn’t looking healthy.

A saving grace is that the strength of the current downtrend remains weak.

I’ve been writing about preparing to go long oil and oil related assets or securities….but still not yet.

The link to my note from October 29, 2024 mentions price levels that I am watching.

One thing to watch is whether WTI Crude makes a new ‘lower low’.

Oil falling 33% further makes it interesting

December 9, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Unloved energy prices

September 14, 2024 Leave a comment

RBOB Gasoline prices have converged to its 200 week moving average.
It’s been a while since it has danced around there.

It is also closing in registering a weekly oversold reading.
That was last seen 4 years ago.



September 14, 2024

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What if Oil prices halved?

June 4, 2024 Leave a comment

WTI Crude Oil ain’t $80 anymore. It’s now $73.

In my note from mid-May, I opine that oil prices see $64 and perhaps $46.

Trendless Oil, looking for much lower prices

June 4, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Knowing when you’re pushing oil barrels uphill

October 6, 2023 Leave a comment

The study below shows the percentage that the WTI Crude Oil price was trading above its 200 week moving average.

When combined with my other studies and metrics, (albeit I couldn’t predict this week’s 10% decline) the probability of the oil price embarking on an extended advance was waning.

More so (subjectively observed), when the financial media noise increased surrounding the various analysts saying $100 was inevitable.

This coincides with my note written 2 weeks earlier.

Selected Oil stocks are full

The high was $95, it is now $82, may see you at $73.10.

Better yet, we may see much cheaper shares in energy companies.

October 6, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Brent at stretched percentages

February 14, 2022 Leave a comment

I’m studying correlation, convergence & divergence activity across a cross selection of assets.

Oil is featuring heavily in my macro work.

Below is a chart of Brent Crude which shows it touching historic peak of the percentage it is trading above its 200 week moving average.

This also coincides with a visit to a longer term resistance line.

I’ll also watch currency crosses such as AUD/JPY to help me stay on the correct side of the move.

Fundamentally, sustained higher oil prices will crimp corporate earnings and stifle GDP expansion.

February 14, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Oil about to hit a 3 1/2 year high

January 17, 2022 Leave a comment

It’s an important coming day or two in Brent Crude Oil trading.

I’m watching if it trades above $86.68.

Friday’s high was $86.52.

That means it makes a ‘higher high’ seen on October 25, 2021.

Albeit, a ‘higher high’ while also recent making a ‘lower low’ portends for an extension of the current rally, on a Daily basis, Brent is now in Overbought territory and 2 standard deviations above its mean.

Whilst the chart below is current, it has notes on it from a post on November 5th, 2021, which also shows the previous high in Brent at $86.71 from October 3, 2018.

January 17, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Long Oil is crowded

October 13, 2021 Leave a comment

I’m advising clients to tune in where the noise is and where the herd is gathering.

Albeit, this is subjective and certainly more art than science, it’s important to identify the “crowded trade” and asking yourself if you are about to be the marginal buyer.

For example,

“everyone” is going Long Crude Oil, Natural/LNG Gas and Coal.

and “nobody” wants to buy Chinese equities nor Gold.

There is merit considering a contrarian result.

With Brent Crude Oil currently $83, I ask myself if it rises $20 or falls $20 from here?

In the coming months, I say it sees $63 rather $103.

October 13, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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