Seeing Aussie inflation and interest rates

June 28, 2023 Leave a comment

An Aussie inflation is abating…

Australian inflation rates have eased from 8.4% to 5.6%.

My notes are calling for 4.8% – 5% before (like the Canadian story in the immediately preceding post) inflation makes another move higher.

So, I’ll look for the Australian 2 year bond yields (currently 4.05%) to fall to the 3.60% – 3.35% range before rates embark on their next wave higher.

This move in interest rates should also extend the rally in growth stocks.

Also, watch for the AUD/USD to also decline a little more.

Until then, recent buyers of bonds will make money, perhaps equity like returns?

While that is playing out, I’m then looking for a 3rd wave of inflation in the form of ‘excuse inflation’ as prices of raw materials and finished products remain stubborn with sellers reluctant to discount and adjust.

It should be a short lived 3rd wave of inflation before meaningful demand destruction takes the upper hand and forces the sellers hand.

A later date, we’ll look for much more lower interest rates for the Aussie 2’s, maybe between 1.70% and 2.30%, 15 months from now?

That’s when bond owners will do very well.

June 28, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Not snobs – We’re just a bunch of drunks

September 19, 2013 Leave a comment

 

A recent article in The Australian newspaper (see link below) highlighted more than the buying power exhibited by Australia’s dominant supermarkets has over wine producers. It talked about how the supermarket duopoly is selling its own branded wine too.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/executive-living/fear-and-loathing-in-the-wine-aisles/story-e6frg9zo-1226717170986

A report from Australia’s Bureau of Statistics says that beer consumption amongst Aussies has hit a 66 year low, while wine sales have risen. News agencies have tried to spin their feeble creative minds to develop a story based around our growing sophistication towards finer tastes. Interestingly the report doesn’t tell us at which price point most of the wine was bought at, but I can confidently predict it wasn’t at the middle nor higher end of the price range.The reason that wine sales are growing is because wine is cheap. It is being sold cheaply by the supermarkets who account for 77% of the domestic wine sales. The reason beer sales are falling is because its expensive.

Mainstream consumers are looking for a cheap way to get drunk at the behest of drinking a quality artisan product.

The price of beer has risen over the past 30 or so years, yet we still think you can buy a glass of beer for $1 at the local bowls club.

Some fancy pubs & restaurants charge $9-$10 for a pint of beer and many happily pay for it, because it’s “craft beer”.

Wine producers at the medium to premium end of the market need to continue to focus on improving their brand, the quality of their product & the “love & care” that they put into making their wine. This is their differentiation, just like craft beer makers are doing it.

One benefit of living in “wine country” is that I have friends who are wine makers and mine happen to all be a part of boutique, independent enterprises. They do not try to be volume based manufacturers. They do not create “cookie cutter” batches of wine.

A $9 bottle of wine tastes like a $9 bottle of wine.

If you choose to enter the lower end of the market, you then compete against those who can be the lowest cost producer and have pricing power. This shouldn’t be a surprise.

We drink a $28 bottle of wine because the quality, love & taste shows.

 

 

 

Related articles

 

 

Filed under Social Observations Tagged with , , , , , , , , ,