Trying to hear what's not being said
May 8, 2025 Leave a comment
8 months ago, I pondered about oil trading lower and the stock prices of certain related stocks.
The prices of the 3 stocks mentioned (BP, Woodside and Occidental) recently all touched the prices mentioned in that September 4, 2024 note.
The circles in the attached charts denote the date of the original post.
May 8, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 7, 2025 Leave a comment
Today I was giving some presentations in the big smoke.
I was espousing the thesis of “trading the signals, not the headlines”.
Under the category of “when you think you know capital markets”, I used these 2 examples of how perverse things can become…..
but it helps to use the signals and not the headlines and certainly not “the narrative”.
May 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 4, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
SHY
MYR/USD
Mexico’s IPC equity index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Gold in AUD, CAD, USD and ZAR *
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
PHP/USD *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Brent and WTI Crude Oil
S&P GSCI (commodities) Index
USD/INR
USD/SGD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 2 year government bond yield *
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
USD/SEK *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None’
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose with her exception of Belgium, Brazil and the Japanese curve.
In fact, Brazilian 10’s are approaching overbought territory .
European (German) 10 year yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline.
South Korean 10’s and Chilean 2’s ended their 4 weeks of lower travel.
Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 7 week declining streak.
Equities rose, everywhere, again.
The Netherland’s, Norway’s, Thailand’s, Canada’s, Poland’s main equity indices are in 4 week rising streaks.
As are the KBW Banks, the ASX’s Small Caps and Industrials along with some U.S. biotech indices.
Over the past 4 weeks, various indices have risen between 8%-13%.
Transportation indices and Thailand’s SET Index are no longer oversold.
Commodities were mostly lower.
The largest winners were Coals, Gases, Urea, Shipping Rates, Palladium and Uranium.
The notable losers included Oils & Distillates, Tin, Sugar Copper, Cocoa, Silver, Lumber and Coffee.
The big news is seeing Crude Oil prices return to oversold extremes.
Gold prices fell and those priced in USD, GBP and EUR left overbought territory.
Natural Gas broke its 4 week losing streak.
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 5 straight weeks and has climbed to prices not seen since November 2022.
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel & Rubber are no longer oversold,
while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 100 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were quiet, for a change of pace.
Continuing last weeks trend, many more currency pairs are not at extremes.
Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.
U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index rose and moved out from oversold territory.
The Aussie was stronger again and is in a 4 week rising streak against the Loonie, Euro and USD.
The Loonie was firmer.
The CAD/AUD has fallen for the past 4 weeks.
The Euro fell,
And the JPY/AUD is in a 4 week losing streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Richards Bay Coal 1.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 3.5%, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Natural Gas 16.6%, Palladium 1.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.8%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.3%, Uranium 4.4%, All Developed World – ex USA 2.9%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 4.3%, CAC 3.1%, DAX 3.8%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 4.3%, MIB 2.6%, HSCEI 1.9%, IDX 5.6%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAEIX 4.6%, Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, KLSE 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.6%, Nasdaq Biotechs 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 225 3.2%, Oslo 3.7%, Copenhagen 7%, Helsinki 3.9%, PSI 2.3%, Sensex 1.6%, SET 3.5%, SMI 2.6%, S&P 500 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.2%, ASX Financials 3.3%, ASX 200 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, ASX Industrials 2.6%, ASX SmallCaps 3%, IBB biotech ETF 2.7%, XBI biotech ETF 4.2% and the Philadelphia SOX Index rose 3.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (1.6%), Brent Crude Oil (6.9%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (7.5%), Lean Hogs (1.8%), Copper (4.4%), Heating Oil (5.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.5%), Lithium Carbonate (.2%), Tin (6.5%), Gasoline (4.1), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Sugar (5%), Sugar #16 (2.5%), SPGSCI (3.2%), CRB Index (2.7%), Gasoil (6.8%), Middle East Urea (1.9%), Silver in AUD (4%), Silver in USD (3.3%), Gold in AUD (3.1%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (2.5%), Gold in Euro (1.8%), Gold in GBP (2.1%), Gold in USD (2.4%), Gold in ZAR (3.9%), Corn (4%), Oats (5.7%), Rice (2.8%), Palm Oil (4.3%) and Turkiye’s BIST Index fell 2.8%.
May 4, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 29, 2025 Leave a comment
Interest Rates are mean (reverting) converging.
Followers of my musings (and a bunch of fund managers) possibly remember my crowing about for lower rates over the past year or so.
While the U.S. 2 year bond yield may travel lower towards the 3.3% region, much of the decline (since 5%) has been seen.
Such an ebb or upcoming trough for interest rates produces and shores up ‘trades’ in other assets.
April 29, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 29, 2025 Leave a comment
When the “Dow Jones Industrials Average / Gold” Ratio trades down to some Monthly extremes, you may be interested seeing what the DJIA does after that.
April 29, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 27, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/ZAR *
CAD/USD *
JPY/USD
NZD/AUD *
NZD/USD *
PHP/USD *
THB/USD *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Urea (U.S. Gulf) *
USD/IDR
Czechia’s PX Index
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *
Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *
EUR/USD *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 3 & 5 year bond yields *
German and Italian 2 year bond yields *
South Korean 10 year bond yields *
Copper/Gold Ratio *
CAD/CHF *
USD/CAD *
USD/MXN *
USD/SGD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Richards Bay Coal *
U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Rubber *
USD/SEK *
Dow Jones Transports *
Nasdaq Transports *
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian 2 year government bond yield
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mixed.
The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.
Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.
Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 6 week declining streak.
Notably, Australian 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.
German 10’s have fallen for 6 straight weeks while German 2’s broke 6 weeks of declines.
The latter also reverted to a long term mean.
Chinese 10’s broke 4 week losing streak.
Polish 10 year yields rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.
Equities rose, everywhere.
Equities had a another stellar week.
As a result, this week several equity indices have left the oversold list.
Many indices are in 3 week rising streaks.
For example, the DAX has risen 9% in the past fortnight.
And as mentioned in last week edition, for now, continues to look like April 4th-7th may signal the lows for global equities.
Commodities were mainly higher, again.
The largest winners were Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Tin, Hogs, Tin and Shipping Rates.
Gold fell (albeit slightly) across various currency pricing.
Gases, Orange Juice, Palladium, Rice and Wheat were counted amongst the few losers.
Natural Gas is in a 4 week losing streak.
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 4 straight weeks.
The Baltic Dry Index snapped it 5 straight weeks of decline.
Sugar broke its 4 week losing streak.
Gold as priced in ZAR ended its 6 weeks of advance.
And Gold in AUD 7 week winning streak also came to an end.
while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 99 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were very active, again.
A few currency pairs have left the list this week.
Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.
The British Pound was stronger again.
The Loonie was mixed.
The Euro is overbought against the USD.
The USD/JPY is at oversold levels.
And the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index barely rose to break its 5 consecutive weeks of decline and it did drag it out of oversold territory.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.4%, Baltic Dry Index 8.8%, Cocoa 13.2%, Cotton 2.5%, Lean Hogs 3.2%, Copper 2.1%, U.S. Midwest HRC 3.4%, Coffee 7.3%, Cattle 2.1%, Tin 4.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Sugar 2.2%, Uranium 2.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Oats 5.2%, Palm Oil 2.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, AEX 2.4%, AEX 3.7%, KBW Banks 5.7%, BUX 6.8%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 4.9%, DJ Industrials 2.5%, Egypt 1.9%, MIB 3.8%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 3.4%, BOVESPA 3.9%, IDX 3.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.7%, Russell 2000 4.1%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.9%, KOSPI 2.5%, FTSE 250 1.9%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.4%, Nikkei 225 2.8%, Stockholm 3%, PSI 2.2%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 4.6%, IPSA & IGPA 2.2%, STI 2.8%, TSX 2.1%, FTSE 100 1.7%, WIG 5.3%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 2.8%, IBB Biotech ETF 4.2% and XBI Biotech ETF rose 5.7%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
WTI Crude Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (6.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Natural Gas (9.5%), Orange Juice (12.9%), Palladium (2.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9%), Rice (2.1%) and Wheat fell 3.1%.
April 27, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 26, 2025 Leave a comment
Avid followers of my weekend publication, Marco Extremes hopefully find many investing and trading queues.
Some examples that came to mind from the last quarter of 2024 included a signal to;
sell/exit U.S. regional banks
and not chase Orange Juice prices higher.
Macro Extremes has entered its 5th year of being published every Sunday.
See you tomorrow.
April 26, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 24, 2025 Leave a comment
Enough for the Euro, for now.
Here are the 5 moments over the past 10 years when the Euro has traded at particular extremes against the U.S. Dollar.
April 24, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 21, 2025 Leave a comment
Here are the 7 times over the past 35 years which the Canadian Dollar has been oversold against the Swiss Franc, on a Monthly basis.
April 21, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 21, 2025 Leave a comment
A year ago, I wrote about my interest in re-entering the uranium trade.
“I’ll look to add to uranium price “trackers” such as the #Sprott Physical Uranium Trust at C$20.50 and Yellow Cake plc at 450p”
The circle in the attached chart shows the price of date of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust on that April 10, 2024 call.
Both securities have now reached those levels but I am yet to pull the trigger on any buying.
April 21, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
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