rob zdravevski's blog

Dictators and their population

Typically, dictator (emperor) type behaviour and desires prevail when the broader population of the nation/empire are lowly educated and often poor.

Then comes the promise of equality to those many. That’s why socialism works for those many.

While an emperor convinces one part of the population, many others are indeed educated and wealthy.

And so, then the campaign begins to invite and convince the educated and wealthy to join the emperor’s cause and ideals, so that they a) are allowed to retain what they already have (see confiscation) and 2) gain a little more under the new and improved way of doing things.

But those poor and uneducated will all collectively pay for everything (including using a public bathroom) just for the privilege of (and giving thanks to) equality or perhaps just a loaf of bread and a quart of milk.

Macro Extremes (week ending June 6, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Rotterdam Coal

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD

Oats *

KOSPI *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle

Germany’s DAX

Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Tel Aviv 25 Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Robusta Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly rose.

BB corporate bond yields mean reverted, as did Indonesian 10’s.

Japanese 2 year bond yields have risen or 5 straight weeks.

South Korean 10 year yields have climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

Italian 10 year bond yields broke their 4 weeks of decline.

And the last of the U.S. bond spreads have left overbought territory.

Equities had a terrific week, again.

The FTSE 100, South African 40, ASX Financials and ASX 200 have risen for 4 straight weeks.

The latter has climbed for 7 weeks of the past 8.

Thailand’s SET is in a 4 week declining streak.

Spain’s IBEX is in a 8 weeks winning streak

Germany’s DAX joins the IBEX at an overbought extreme.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Commodities were stronger.

The largest winners were Thermal Coal, Oils and Distillates, Tin, Copper, Gases, Platinum, Palladium, Silver and Shipping Rates

The notable losers included Coking Coal, Sugar, Uranium and Lithium Carbonate.

Platinum remains overbought while Silver in AUD makes a new appearance being so.

Oats, Cattle and Rotterdam Coal prices are also at overbought extremes.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 5 week winning streak and is at an overbought extreme.

Robusta Coffee has fallen for 6 weeks.
Sugar and U.S. Gulf Urea prices have sunk for the past 4 weeks.

While Rice has risen for 4 straight weeks.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie rose.

Loonie was mixed.

The Yen was weaker

And the USD was mostly softer.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 3.2%, Rotterdam Coal 7.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.3%, Baltic Dry Index 15.2%, Brent Crude 5.9%, Cocoa 4.8%, WTI Crude Oil 6.2%, Copper 3.7%, Heating Oil 6%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coal Steel 4.5%, JKM LNG 2.4%, Arabica Coffee 4.6%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 4.6%, JKM in Yen 5%, Tin 6.8%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.6%, Palladium 10%, Platinum 10.7%, Gasoline 3.1%, S&P GSCI 3.9%, CRB Index 3.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.9%, Gasoil 5.5%, Silver in AUD 8%, Silver in USD 9.1%, Soybean 1.5%, Wheat 3.9%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.2%, IBB biotech 4.3%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAIEX 1.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 2%, KSE 1.6%, KOSPI 4.2%, S&P MidCap 400 1.8%, NBI biotech 4.3%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Oslo 1.5%, Copenhagen 2.8%, SA40 2.4%, SOX 5.9%, SPX 1.5%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, XBI biotech 6.4% and ASX Financials rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2%), Lithium Carbonate (1.6%), Robusta Coffee (1.6%), Sugar (3.3%), Uranium (1.8%), IDX (2.1%) and Poland’s WIG Index fell 2.2%. 

June 8, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Low inflation is not a equities market top

When U.S. inflation is ‘overbought’, it stifles the advance in equities.

Today, U.S. inflation is much closer to being ‘oversold’.

And this comes at a time when your trusty fund manager is at their most underweight equity position in 2 years.

May 31, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Risk-off huddles into the Swissie

Not to be used in isolation (as there are other cross reference points)……but when the USD is oversold on a weekly basis against the Swiss Franc…..I either stay or initiate ‘longs’ in equities.

May 31, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Question your set and forget ideals

For all the passive “it’s time in the market, not timing the market” types,

many Australian “blue chips” (that crutch which investors lean on, in the absence of applying any financial analysis or acumen) are today trading at the same price they were in 2008, 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2020.

As a sample, here are the price charts of Westpac, BHP and Woolworths.

Before someone replies with a something that resembles, “but at least I received my dividends”…..

I have also attached a price chart of Amazon (AMZN).

May 30, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au