Trying to hear what's not being said
November 4, 2025 Leave a comment
3 weeks ago, my weekly ‘Macro Extremes’ note listed Platinum (amongst a few others) as registering a quinella of overbought tendencies.
That was $200 (or 11%) above todays price.
If you’re not in the business of ‘shorting’, this alert should have made the poor sod who bought Platinum that week, think twice or thrice.
November 4, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 2, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 2 & 3 year government bond yields
Korean 10 year government bond yields
U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread
Aluminium *
DXY Index
Soybeans
AUD/EUR
AUD/GBP
AUD/JPY
AUD/THB
CAD/JPY
EUR/GBP
GBP/JPY *
USD/JPY *
IDX 30
FTSE 250 *
WIG
And the ASX Financials index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Silver in AUD and USD *
Gold in CAD & GBP
CAD/JPY *
EUR/JPY *
Shanghai Composite *
CSI 300 *
Hungary’s BUX Index
Egypt’s EGX Index *
IBB biotech ETF *
Spain’s IBEX *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Nasdaq Composite *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Nasdaq Biotech Index *
Nasdaq 100
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
S&P 500
Chile’s IPSA
Israel’s TA35
Canada’s TSX *
FTSE 100 *
S&P Biotech ETF *
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Aluminium (LME) *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Japan’s Nikkei 225 *
Finland’s OMXH *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread
Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year bond yield spread
Chilean 2 year bond yield
British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields
Nickel (MCX)
GBP/USD
JPY/CAD *
JPY/USD
PHP/USD
USD/CNH
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Lumber
Lithium Carbonate
Urea (Middle East) *
Rice *
JPY/EUR *
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Sugar *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields mostly rose.
The British yield curve along with Polish 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.
U.S. 3 month bill yields have fallen 7 weeks.
U.S, 10’s, 20’s and inflation break-even spreads rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.
U.S. 30’s rose and broke a 5 weeks losing streak.
And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper remain close to being oversold.
Equities were mixed.
Some new names joined the overbought list.
The BUX, KOSPI and Finland’s OMXH are in a 5 week winning streak.
The Nifty and the Sensex fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.
The biotech indices have risen for 7 weeks.
Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 8 weeks.
TAIEX has climbed for 10 weeks.
The SOX closed higher for 7 of the past 8 weeks.
While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.
Commodities were active.
Natural Gas, Uranium, Soybean and Wheat were amongst the notable gainers.
Palm Oil, Cocoa, Lumber, Orange Juice and Sugar dominated the losers category.
Platinum, Palladium & Gold (across various currencies) left overbought territory.
The former has declined for 4 weeks.
Sugar is in 4 week losing streak and registers an oversold quinella.
Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 weeks.
Rice rose and snapped 8 weeks of losses.
And Lumber has sunk 15% in the past fortnight.
Currencies were busy.
Various AUD and JPY pairs a featuring in this week’s list of extremes.
The Aussie and Loonie rose, again.
The Euro and Yen were weaker.
While the USD firmed slightly.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.1%, Natural Gas 7.8%, Gasoline 1.7%, Uranium 7%, Corn 2%, Rice 1.5%, Soybean 5.2%, Wheat 4.2%, BUX 3%, DJ Transports 2.8%, MIB 1.6%, IBB 2.7%, BOVESPA 2.3%, TAIEX 2.6%, Nasdaq Composite 2.7%, KOSPI 4.2%, Mexico 2.7%, NBI 3.4%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Nikkei 225 6.3%, Helsinki 1.6%, PX 1.8%, SOX 3.6%, IGPA 2.6%, TA35 2.3% and XBI biotech ETF rose 4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (1.9%), Rotterdam Coal (1.5%), Cocoa (2.7%), Palm Oil (4.9%), JKM LNG (1.8%), Arabica Coffee (2.7%), Lumber (8.7%), Cattle (1.8%), JKM LNG in Yen (2%), Orange Juice (8.5%), Palladium (1.8%), Platinum (1.7%), Sugar (3.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.6%), Gold in AUD (3.2%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (1.6%), Gold in EUR (2%), Gold in USD (2.7%), Gold in ZAR (2.3%), Oats (6.2%), China A50 (1.8%), HSCEI (2.1%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.8%), Russell 2000 (1.3%), KRE Regional Banks (2%), FTSE 250 (1.5%) and the ASX Industrial Index fell 1.5%.
November 2, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
October 26, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Aluminium *
CAD/JPY
CHF/AUD
GBP/JPY
USD/JPY
AEX
FTSE 250
Nifty
Sensex
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Platinum *
Silver in AUD and USD *
CHF/JPY *
EUR/JPY
Shanghai Composite
CSI 300
Egypt’s EGX Index *
IBB biotech ETF *
Spain’s IBEX *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Nasdaq Composite
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Nasdaq Biotech Index *
Nasdaq 100
Japan’s Nikkei 225 *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Canada’s TSX *
FTSE 100
S&P Biotech ETF *
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Aluminium (LME)
Platinum
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Finland’s OMXH
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch & Portuguese 10 year government bond yields
British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields
U.S. 30 year bond yields
AUD/CHF *
EUR/CHF *
JPY/CAD
JPY/USD *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Indonesian 10 year bond yield
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate
Richards Bay Coal *
Urea (Middle East)
Rice *
JPY/EUR
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Indonesia 10 year government bond yield
Sugar
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell except for EU, U.S. and Japanese versions.
European 10’s rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.
The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate remains near being oversold even it moved from 2.3% to 2.4% during the week.
Portuguese and U.S, 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks as have U.S. 20’s.
U.S. 30’s have fallen for 5 weeks.
Austrian 10’s rose and broke 5 weeks of decline
And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper is very close to being oversold.
Equities had a good week.
We saw Chinese, British, Nasdaq Composite and the 100 return to overbought territory.
The BUX, KOSPI, Nifty, Sensex and Finland’s OMXH are in a 4 week winning streak.
The biotech indices have risen for 6 weeks.
Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 7 weeks.
TAIEX has climbed for 9 weeks.
Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.
While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.
Commodities were active, again.
Aluminium, Cocoa, Copper, Oils, Gases and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers.
Lumber, Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Sugar, Rice, Silver and Gold dominated the losers category.
Silver and Gold (across various currencies) fell and snapped a 9 week winning streak.
Cattle and Palladium fell enough to leave overbought territory.
Crude Oil bounces and easily erased the 5% decline of the previous fortnight.
Sugar registers an oversold quinella.
Oats rose and snapped its 4 weeks of decline.
Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.
Rice has swooned for 8 weeks.
And Middle Eastern Urea prices rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.
Currencies were busy.
We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list and many currencies reversing last week’s travel.
The Aussie and Loonie rose.
The Swissie as weaker.
Euro firmed.
The Yen fell.
And the Thai Baht rose against the USD to break 5 weeks of decline.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 3.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 7.6%, Cocoa 7.2%, WTI Crude Oil 7.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 10.2%, Arabica Coffee 1.4%, LNG in Yen 2.3%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.5%, Orange Juice 3.6%, Gasoline 4.9%, Tin 2.7%, S&P GSCI 3.6%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 12.5%, Oats 4.8%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai 2.9%, CSI 300 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 1.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.6%, Cjina A50 3.6%, IDX 4.5%, DAX 1.7%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, FCATC 5.8%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 3.9%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3%, Russell 2000 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 5.1%, FTSE 250 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, Helsinki 5.5%, Stockholm 3.2%, SET 3.1%, SOX 2,9%, S&P 500 1.9%, STI 2.2%, WIG 3.4%, BIST 7.2% and the FTSE 100 rose 3.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index 3.8%), Palm Oil (2%), Lumber (7%), Cattle (3.3%), Palladium (2.7%), Sugar 3.4%, Silver in AUD (6.5%), Silver in USD (6.3%), Gold in AUD (3.6%), Gold in CAD (3.4%), Gold in CHF (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (2.5%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Gold in ZAR (5.8%), Rice (3.8%), PSE (1.7%), RUS10 (6.3%), VN Index (2.8%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 2%.
October 26, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
October 23, 2025 Leave a comment
Airbnb stock has risen 88% since its IPO price.
Over the same time, Hilton and Marriott stock has risen 148% and 100% respectively.
But if investors had bought AirBnB stock on its first day of trading publicly and held it until today, the return is -8%.
All three businesses operate an “asset-light” model.
It also illustrates how most of Airbnb’s capital appreciation occurred while it was still a private company.
October 19, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Finnish10 year government bond yields
Aluminium *
DXY Index
CHF/AUD
COP/USD
GBP/JPY *
USD/CAD *
USD/KRW *
USD/SGD *
CAC Index
Vietnam’s VN equity index *
And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Cattle *
CHF/JPY *
Egypt’s EGX Index *
IBB biotech ETF
Spain’s IBEX
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Nasdaq Biotech Index
Japan’s Nikkei 225 *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Canada’s TSX *
ASX Materials Index
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Gold Volatility Index *
Palladium
Platinum
Silver in AUD & USD *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *
CHF/CAD
South Korea’s KOSPI *
S&P Biotech Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, British, Greek and Dutch 10 year government bond yields
British 5 year bond yields
Cotton *
Nickel (Indian MCX)
Sugar (+2 month)
AUD/CHF
EUR/CHF
GBP/USD
JPY/USD *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Lithium Carbonate *
Urea (Middle East)
Rice *
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Indonesia 10 year government bond yield
CAD/CHF
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell, again again.
Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield fell and snapped their 5 weeks rise.
The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is hovering above oversold territory.
The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate is also near being oversold.
European 10’s, U.S. 30’s and TBT & TBX have fallen for 4 weeks.
Austrian 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.
And U.S. BB Corporate High Yield paper is very close to being oversold.
Equities had a mixed week, with gainers outpacing decliners.
We saw many equity indices leave overbought territory including those from China, France, Israel and Germany.
The S&P Biotech Index has risen for 5 weeks.
Egypts EGX has advanced for 6 weeks.
TAIEX has climbed for 8 weeks.
Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST have fallen 4 weeks.
The Nikkei 225 fell and broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance.
While the ASX Small Caps fell and snapped its winning streak at 10 weeks.
Commodities were active.
Aluminium, Coal, Coffee, Lumber and Precious Metals were amongst the notable gainers.
Crude Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Sugar & Uranium dominated the losers category.
Palladium and Platinum rejoined the overbought club.
Crude Oil has declined 5% over the past fortnight.
While the front month off Richards Bay Coal is oversold, the forward month contract rose 2.9%, which moved it out of oversold territory and snapping its 11 week losing streak.
Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 9 consecutive weeks.
The Copper/Gold Ratio fell to its lowest reading since April 2020. Prior to that it was last seen at this level between Nov 2008 – Feb 2009 and matches the reading in February 1990.
Cocoa rose and broke its 8 week losing streak, which also moved it out of overbought territory.
Oats have lost ground for the past 4 weeks.
Rice has swooned for 7 weeks.
And Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 8 weeks.
Currencies were busy.
We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list.
The Aussie was subdued, with a bias for weakness.
The Loonie was weaker.
The Swissie rose and appears in many extremes this week.
The Euro mostly fell.
The British Pound was firmer.
The DXY is back in overbought territory.
And the Thai Baht has fallen for 5 weeks versus the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.6%, Rotterdam Coal 3.7%, Copper 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, Lumber 3.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Palladium 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%m Gold in AUD 5.5%, Gold in CAD 5.9%, Gold in CHF 5.1%, Gold in EUR 5.6%, Gold in GBP 5.4%, Gold in USD 5.8%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Corn 2.3%, AEX 1.6%, CAC 3.2%, China A50 4.1%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 4%, IBB 2.8%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.9%, Russell 2000 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.9%, Mexico 1.9%, Nasdaq Biotechs 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 1.7%, SENSEX 1.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 600 3%, IGPA 4.9%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, S&P Biotech 2.7% & the ASX Materials index rose 4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Brent Crude Oil (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (2.2%), Palm Oil (1.4%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (1.3%), Tin (3.5%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Orange Juice (10%), Sugar (3.7%), Gasoil (3%), Uranium (2.4%), Shanghai Composite (1.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), IDX (4.1%), DAX (1.7%), FCATC (6.9%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (4%), KRE Regional Banks (1.9%), OBX (1.7%), STI (2.2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2%.
October 19, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
October 16, 2025 Leave a comment
Of all the stocks in my global universe of interest, it all feels like this is ‘the time’ to do your buying and get set in those businesses that you’ve been wanting to own……
and then, we wait !
October 16, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 12, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Danish and Korean 10 year government bond yields
Gold Volatility Index
Aluminium
AUD/THB
GBP/JPY
USD/CAD
USD/INR
USD/JPY
USD/KRW
USD/SGD
DAX Index
And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Cattle
Platinum *
CHF/JPY
Shanghai Composite Index *
CSI 300 *
AEX Index
CAC Index
Indonesia’s IDX Index
Egypt’s EGX Index *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Japan’s Nikkei 225 *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Israel’s TA35
Canada’s TSX
Vietnam’s VN Index
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Silver in AUD & USD *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *
S&P Biotech Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Cocoa (U.S.)
Cotton
JPY/USD
NZD/USD
USD/ZAR
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Indonesia 10 year government bond yield
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Cocoa (London)
Lithium Carbonate *
Rice *
Urea (Middle East)
Wheat
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell, again.
Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield have risen for 5 weeks.
The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is staying close to oversold territory.
Equities had a lousy week.
A few equity indices left the overbought ranks.
The S&P 500, China’s FCATC, Hang Seng Index, Spain’s IBEX and the Nasdaq Composite were amongst those who fell and are not overbought this week.
Whilst many equity indices appear in the decliners category, many Asian indices rose for the week.
Egypts EGX has advanced for 5 weeks.
While South Africa’s SA40 and France’s CAC fell and snapped their 4 week winning streak.
AEX, KSE, PX and SOX all fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.
While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 10 weeks.
Commodities were busy, again.
Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Silver and Gold were amongst the notable gainers.
Copper, Crude Oil, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Tin, Urea and Rice dominated the losers category.
Tin dropped out of overbought territory.
Palladium have mean reverted….upwards.
While Platinum fell and broke its 9 week winning streak.
Cattle, Cocoa, Urea and Wheat are new entrants to this weeks extremes.
Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.
The Copper/Gold Ratio fell.
Richards Bay Coal has slumped for 11 week consecutive weeks.
Cocoa is in a 8 week losing streak.
Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 7 weeks
Rice has swooned for 6 weeks.
Corn and Wheat have fallen for the past 4 weeks.
And Oats have posted 12 losing weeks of the past 14.
Currencies were active, again.
We saw some changes with some pairs leaving and others joining the extreme list.
The Aussie exactly reversed last weeks action. It fell against all except the Yen.
The Brazilian Real rose 3% vs the USD.
In some resilience of the risk-off mood seen in equities, the CAD rose.
The Swiss Franc was mixed.
Yen was weaker and didn’t see any buying on the back of equity weakness.
GBP was mostly firmer.
The DXY rose 1.2% for the week and you’ll see many USD pairs in overbought territory.
The Thai Baht has fallen for 4 weeks versus the USD.
While the USD rose again the South African Rand and broke a 5 week losing streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Palm Oil 2.3%, Cattle 3.4%, JKM LNG in Yen 5.4%, Palladium 13.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.3%, Silver in AUD 6.8%, Silver in USD 4.8%, Gold in AUD 5.4%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Gold in other currencies rose between 3.4%-4.4%, BUX 1.5%, IDX 1.7%, TAIEX 2%, KOSPI 1.7%, Nikkei 225 5.1%, Nikkei 225 5.1%, NIFTY 1.6%, SENSEX 1.6%, TA35 2.4%, Vietnam 6.2% and the XBI Biotech ETF rose 1.3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (2.9%), Rotterdam Coal (2.6%), Brent Crude Oil (2.8%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (3.3%), Copper (4.2%), Heating Oil (1.4%), Arabica Coffee (4.5%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (6.6%), Orange Juice (12.7%), Gasoline (2.2%), Sugar (2.3%), Tin (3.9%), CRB Index (2.2%), Gasoil (1.9%), Urea Middle East (3.3%), Uranium (2.4%), Corn (1.4%), Rice (3.9%), Wheat (3.3%), All World Developed ex USA (1.8%), AEX (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), KBW Banks (5%), CAC (2%), China A50 (4.9%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), DJ Transports (4.9%), FCATC (4.6%), MIB (2.8%), HSCEI (3.1%), Hang Seng (3.1%), BOVESPA (2.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.8%), Russell 2000 (3.3%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KRE Regional Banks (5.1%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.8%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2.3%), SOX (2.7%), IGPA (2.3%), S&P 500 (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (2.8%) and Canada’s TSX fell 2%.
October 12, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
October 6, 2025 Leave a comment
Is Coal the new Gold?
Can a lump of #coal be my ‘new money’?
#perspective
Since the April 2025 lows, the stock price of #Peabody Energy (BTU) has outperformed the price of #Gold by a factor of 10 and #Bitcoin by 4-fold.
October 6, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 6, 2025 Leave a comment
While specific U.S. biotech’s are held in client portfolios, the broader sector has seen the ‘fat part’ of the trade.
An extreme low in the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) was mentioned in the April 6, 2025 edition of my Macro Extremes weekly note.
and an overbought extreme was highlighted in yesterdays edition.
For now, ~37% over 6 months will do.
I’ll leave the next 10% for someone else.
October 6, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 5, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian and Italian 2 year government bond yields
Australian 3 year government bond yields
Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields
AUD/SGD
AUD/THB
USD/CAD
USD/IDR *
AEX
CAC
HSCEI
And Switzerland’s SMI equity index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Platinum
Tin
CHF/CAD
EUR/CAD
USD/INR
Shanghai Composite Index *
CSI 300 *
All World Developed ex USA equity index
Egypt’s EGX Index
China’s FCATC *
Hang Seng Index
Spain’s IBEX *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Nasdaq Composite *
Malaysia’s KLSE Index
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Nasdaq Biotech Index
Nasdaq 100
Japan’s Nikkei 225 *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
S&P 500
Canada’s TSX *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Israel’s TA35
Canada’s TSX
FTSE 100
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Silver in AUD & USD *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR
S&P Biotech Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
None
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Lithium Carbonate
Rice
CAD/CHF
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread
Cocoa
Philippines PSE equity index
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were generally lower.
The Japanese yield curve and Russian 10’s have risen for 4 weeks.
U.S. 2’s are approaching ‘maximum pessimism’.
And Swiss 10 year bond yields rose from near oversold territory and broke a 5 week losing streak. Incidentally, they are yielding 0.28%, while the Swiss Franc has rallied 15% against most currencies.
Equities had a terrific week.
We see several more equity indices joining the overbought ranks.
The Russell 2000 is near the same membership.
Biotech’s had a monster week as did several indices such as Taiwan’s and Korea’s.
The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 6 weeks.
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices fell enough for them to no longer be overbought.
The ASX Industrials rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.
South Africa’s SA40, the CAC and Egypts EGX have advanced for 4 weeks.
AEX, KSE, PX and SOX are in 5 week winning streaks.
While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 9 weeks.
Commodities were busy with some broad gyrations.
Copper, Tin, Precious Metals and Lumber were amongst the notable gainers.
Oils & Distillates, Coal, Gases, Shipping Rates, Oats & Lithium dominated the losers category.
Lean Hogs and Uranium fell and they both dropped out of overbought territory.
The former broke a 7 week winning streak.
Lithium Carbonate and Cocoa return to oversold land.
While Copper rise, the Coper/Gold Ratio remains low, telling me that risk off sentiment in commodities is at odds to that of equities.
Gasoil fee and broke 4 consecutive weeks of advance.
U.S. Gulf urea prices rose and broke 9 weeks of decline.
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern urea has sunk for 6 weeks.x
Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 7 week rising streak.
Platinum has risen for 9 weeks.
Rice has fallen for 5 weeks.
Cocoa has declined for 7 weeks.
And Richards Bay Coal has slumped for 10 week consecutive weeks.
Currencies were active, again.
We saw some changes with some pairs leaving and others joining the extreme list.
The Aussie rose against all except the Yen.
The Loonie fell.
The British Pound was mixed.
Yen was stronger, thus breaking a few of the losing streaks posted in last weeks edition.
Swissie/Yen fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.
The USD has fallen for 5 weeks against the South African Rand,
And the Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke an 8 week slump.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.4%, Copper 7.1%, Arabica Coffee 3.4%, Lumber 3.6%, Natural Gas 3.7%, Nickel 1.7%, Platinum 2.4%, Robusta Coffee 7.8%, Tin 8.9%, Silver in AUD 3.3%, Silver in USD 4.2%, Gold in AUD 2.5%, Gold in CAD 3.4%, Gold in CHF 3%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in GBP 2.8%, Gold in USD 3.4%, God in ZAR 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.6%, AEX 2.5%, ATX 2.2%, CAC 2.7%, DAX 2.7%, EGX 3.5%, FCATC 5.4%, MIB 1.4%, HSCEI 3.8%, Hang Seng 3.9%, IBB 7.1%, IBEX 1.5%, Russell 2000 1.9%, TAEIX 4.6%, KLSE 1.6%, KOSPI 4.8%, FTSE 250 2.4%, Nasdaq Biotechs 6.3%, Copenhagen 3.9%, Stockholm 3.2%, SMI 4.8%, SOX 4.4%, STI 3.4%, TA35 5.4%, TSX 2.4%, FTSE 100 2.2%, WIG 1.4%, XBI 5.8%, ASX Financials 3%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASX Materials 2.6%, ASX Industrials 2.8% and ASX Small Caps soared 3.9%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (1.5%), Richards Bay Coal (2.5%), Rotterdam Coal (2.3%), Brent Crude Oil (6.8%), Baltic Dry Index (15.9%), WTI Crude Oil (7.4%), Cotton (1.7%), Lean Hogs (2.5%), Heating Oil (7.5%), JKM LNG (2.3%), LNG in Yen (5.4%), Lithium Carbonate (3.5%), Orange Juice (3.2%) Palladium (1.4%), Gasoline (6.5%), S&P GSCI (2.7%), CRB Index (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (8.4%), Middle East Urea (1.7%), Uranium (1.8%), Oats (3.2%), Rice (1.2%), IDX (2.2%), BIST (2.6%) and the KBW Banks fell 2.2%.
October 5, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob zdravevski's blog 