Airbnb’s IPO and the ‘hidden’ shares

This year, IPO’s on U.S. exchanges have raised a record $140 billion, exceeding the $107 billion raised in the height of the 1999 dot-com boom.

It has also been a week when we have seen;

✔️ Tesla announce its 3rd (secondary) equity sale this year.
The timing of the previous offerings uncannily occurred at interim market highs;

✔️ the most ridiculous IPO in DoorDash;
(stock doubles on its first day, market cap is $60bn vs. $16bn private valuation)

✔️ and Airbnb premiered on the bourse with an IPO of its own.

The process of pricing of Airbnb’s IPO began between the $44-$50 per share range which was revised to $56-$60 while the final price struck was at $68.

Unlike Facebook’s IPO pricing debacle in 2012, I think Airbnb’s pricing was spot-on.

The after-market demand saw the stock close at $145 on its first day of trading. With $602 million shares outstanding, it now has a market cap of $87 billion.

But on a fully diluted basis (including employee stock, options and restricted units) Airbnb has 700m shares, so its Market Cap is $101 billion.

and DoorDash has 385m shares, which adjusts its Market Cap to $71.5 billion, which is a little bit too much when you are losing $150 million and trading on 30 times revenue.

December 11, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

The Platinum call is looking good

Within 3 weeks since this original post below, Platinum has risen 17% while Gold has declined 3% 😊

https://robzdravevski.com/2020/11/17/investment-thesis-long-platinum/

Why is the ‘Western’ way considered superior?

“Westerners” make up somewhere between 11% – 15% of the world’s population (depending if we include Latin America and Eastern Europe)……

but ‘the west’ seems to dictate the principles of how business is done…..

and ‘the west’ actively publish books on the topics of ‘how to do business’ in other parts of the world, aiming to teach readers how to adapt and what to look for and do, when dealing with other cultures.

Do you think Africans, Asians, Arabs (and Persians), Latinos or Eskimos produce guides on how to do business with westerners?

I don’t call them ‘wicked’ for no reason

As markets came to a close on November 9th, 2020 (U.S. time), I wrote a post which highlighted a trading day not seen too often. The final paragraph summarises it well.
Link: 

3 weeks later, let’s compare;

On that ‘wicked’ November 9th day,
The major U.S. indices rallied hard during the day, then gave up most or all of those gains. This is what I call a reversal and a potential bull trap.

The S&P 500 saw a high of 3,646. Today, it’s 3,638.
The Nasdaq 100 intra-day high was 12,268, the current price is 12,258.

No change in 3 weeks.
The trap is still in progress.

Silver & Gold tanked on Nov 9th.
Such large ‘down days’ tell us to stay on the sidelines for a little longer.
Silver’s low was $24.08, todays its 8% lower at $22.13.
Gold traded to a low of $1,850, now its 4.3% lower at $1,770.

Oil boomed 6% higher to an intra-day peak of $43.46 and has advanced a further 10% up to $48.00.

The U.S. KBW Bank Index which soared an incredible 13.5% eeked out an additional 3% in the next couple days.

10 year bond yields surged from 0.81% to 0.93%. They rose to 0.98% yet failed a weekly close above that. Now, they are 0.83%. My comments in the link were spot-on.
https://lnkd.in/e-H5XY3

In summary, whoever reversed remained steady, those who tanked carried on falling and whoever soared, advanced a little more.

November 30, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au