Macro Extremes # 282 (week ending October 16, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

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Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

CAD/EUR

GBP/EUR

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Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. High Yield Bond Option Index *
U.S. BB High Yield *

Belgian and French 10-Year Government Bond Yields *

Japanese 2-, 3- and 5-Year Bond Yields *

British 2- and 3-year Bond Yields *
U.S. 3-Month Bill *

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate *

Richards Bay Coal
Rotterdam Coal *

LNG JKM in Yen

Gasoline *

Sugar *

Sugar # 16

Dutch TTF Gas

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

Japanese Naphtha *

CNH/USD *

Netherland’s AEX Index

and Poland’s WIG Index *

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The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Indian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *
USD/MXN *

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Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese 10-year bond yield

Aluminium

Lithium Carbonate

Palladium *

Tin

AUD/SGD

EUR/CHF

EUR/GBP

Shanghai Composite Index

All World Developed ex USA

KBW Bank Index

Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index

Italy’s MIB Index *

Russell 2000 *

ASX Small Cap Index *

Türkiye’s BIST Index *

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Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lean Hogs *
China CFR Iron Ore *

USD/CNH
FCATC Index

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The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Nickel traded on MCX

MXN/USD *

CSI 300 Index

Chian A50 Index

Indonesia Composite Index

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Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Were Mostly Lower

Almost all the yields in the extreme list have departed.

Brazil 10-year yields bounced but nowhere near recovering last weeks slump.

And the only streak on note is that Indian 10-year yields have risen for 9 weeks.

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Equities Were Active

Shanghai Composite, FCATC Index, Vietnam, XBI and ASX Small Caps have closed lower for the past 4 weeks.

The latter completed a medium term mean reversion.

Large declines stood out in South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, China, the Nasdaq 100, the SOX and amongst biotech’s.

Türkiye’s BIST Index has fallen for 5 weeks.

The KBW Banks Index and the Russell 2000 are in 6-week losing streaks.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul and the ASX Materials have sunken for 7 weeks straight.

The CSI 300, China A50 are in 10-week losing streaks.

Inversely, the AEX has risen for 4 weeks.

While the TAIEX, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 fell and broke a 4-week winning streak.

KRE Regional Banks rose and snapped a 5-week winning run.

And the South Africa 40 rose to break its 6 weeks of losses.

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Commodity Prices Were Mixed

Coal, Oil, Gases, Distillates and Coffee and Rice were the notable gainers.

Lithium, Shipping Rates, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Oats were amongst the largest decliners.

Several commodities have registered extremes this past week.

Rotterdam Coal, Brent Crude and Sugar have risen for 4 weeks.

Platinum has fallen for consecutive 4 weeks.

Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 7 weeks.

Various energy crack spread prices are lower than recent extreme peaks.

And the U.S. Dollar and the Copper/Gold Ratio fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

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Currencies Were Busy

The Aussie was weaker except against the Loonie.

Indeed, the CAD was higher, as was the British Pound.

The former broke a 6-week losing streak against the USD.

The yen put in a rare ‘mixed’ week.

EUR/CHF is in a 5-week losing streak.

MXN/USD has sunk for 6 weeks.

EUR/USD rose and ended 5 weeks of decline.
The USD/JPY fell and snapped its 4-week winning streak as it did against the SGD.

The Kiwi rose against the Dollar and broke a 7-week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/CHF fell and ended 7 weeks of advance.

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The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised Richards Bay Coal 1.6%, Brent Crude 4.9%, WTI Crude 9.6%, Palm Oil 1.5%, Heating Oil 3.5%, JKM LNG 3.4%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, LNG JKN in Yen 10.8%, Newcastle Coal 2.7%, S&P GSCI 1.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 7.5%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.6%, Rice 2.2%, BUX 2.7%, CAC 2%, DAX 2.1%, IBC 1.5%, Dublin 2.1%, FTSE 250 1.3%, Mexico 4.4%, Nifty 2.8%, OBX 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.2%, Lisbon 2.1%, PX 3.1%, SA40 2.5%, Sensex 3.1%, SMI 4.4%, TA35 4%, TSX 1.4%, FTSE 3.1%, WIG 1.5% and the ASX Financials rose 3.2%.

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The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included Aluminium 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index (13.9%), Copper (1.8%), Lithium Carbonate (6.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (6.3%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Nickel (1.8%), Orange Juice (4.9%), Palladium (2.8%), Platinum (3.6%), Robusta Coffee (1.6%), Tin (4.8%), Silver (6.3%), Oats (5.5%), Soybeans (2.4%), Wheat (1.6%), Gasoil crack spread (3.5%), Gasoline crack spread (12.9%), Shanghai (2.6%), CSI 300 (3.4%), China A50 (3.5%), IDX (14.9%), EGX (1.9%), Tadawul (2.6%), IBB (2.2%), S&P Small Cap 600 (1.2%), Russell 2000 (3.1%), TAIEX (4.5%), Nasdaq Composite (4.5%), Kospi (14.5%), S&P Mid Cap 400 (1.5%), NBI (2.4%), Nasdaq 100 (5.5%), Nikkei 225 (5.4%), SOX (11.4%), S&P 500 (2%), Vietnam (1.7%), XBI (6.2%), BIST (4.4%), ASX Materials (2.3%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.8%.

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October 18, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au