Macro Extremes (week ending September 4, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

Australian 2, 3 and 10 year bond yields

Euro 2, 3, 5 and 20 year bond yields

The British yield curve

Australian Coking Coal

Rotterdam Coal

Baltic Dry Index

Palm Oil *

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Corn *

Soybeans *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/THB *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yield *

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

North European Rolled Steel *

Heating Oil

JKM LNG in $ and ¥

Gasoline

Rice *

CNH/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index *

IBB and NBI Biotech Indices *

Norway’s OBX

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Canada’s TSX Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2- and 5-year bond yields

Richards Bay Coal

Sugar *

Gasoil crack spread

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

AUD/CHF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/KRW

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

CHF/AUD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Austrian, Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, British, Dutch, Portuguese, Swedish and Irish 10 year yields have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

As have U.S. 5, 7 and 10 year yields.

Australian 3-, 5- and 10-year yields, along with Japanese 2’s are in a 4-week winning streak.

U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yields along with U.S. real rates have also closed higher over the past 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 year yields are in a 5 week winning streak,

While Japanese 30 year bond yields fell.

Equities were mixed.

The Shanghai Composite, CAC 40, China A50, MIB, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 4-week losing streaks.

OMX Copenhagen fell and snapped a run of 5 consecutive winning weeks.

OMX Helsinki also fell bringing its 6-week winning streak to an end.

The OBX is in an 8-week winning streak.

While the ASX Materials Index declined 5% and fell from an overbought extreme.  

Commodities prices were also mixed.

Coal, Oil, Distillates, Gases, Sugar and Rice were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Palladium, and Corn were amongst the largest decliners.

Rotterdam Coal, JKM LNG, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Dutch TTF, Corn, Soybeans, Gasoil and Heating Oil crack spreads are in 4-week winning streaks.

Australian Coking Coal prices have risen for 5 weeks.

Wheat fell and broke a 4-week winning streak.

Cotton and Uranium declined and snapped their respective 6-week winning streaks.

Cattle rose and end 4 weeks of losses.

Corn fell 6%, giving back one-third of the gains seen in the previous 3 weeks.

Rice and Soybeans have climbed 14% and 10% respectively, over the past 3 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie mainly higher.

AUD/EUR and IDR/USD are in a 5-week winning streak.

The Yen was firmer, which snapped the AUD/JPY 4 week winning run.

The Loonie was mixed.

The Swissie and Pound Sterling were weaker.

And the PHP/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 1.9%, Richards Bay Coal 7.1%, Aluminium 1.9%, Rotterdam Coal 5.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Brent Crude 13.9%, WTI Crude 9.7%, EHR 1.5%, Heating Oil 6.9%, HRC 1.7%, JKM LNG 3.7%, Newcastle Coal 7.8%, Natural Gas 3%, Orange Juice 7.7%, Gasoline 5.4%, Sugar 2.9%, S&P GSCI 4.3%, TTF 7.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.5%, Gasoil 9%, Rice 2.1%, Soybeans 1.7%, Gasoil crack 8.1%, Heating Oil crack 5.5%, KBW Banks 1.3%, EGX 2.1%, IBB 1.4%, Bovespa 5.4%, IDX 2.5%, Dublin 2.2%, NBI 1.7%, PSE 2.3%, SOX 2.3%, STI 1.8%< TA35 2.2% and the ASX Financials rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Cocoa (6.9%), Cotton (5.5%), Arabica Coffee (5.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.9%), Lithium Hydroxide (6.4%), Palladium (2.8%), Platinum (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (2.8%), Sugar #16 (2.6%), Oats (1.6%), Corn (6.4%), Gasoline crack (4%), BUX (1.9%), CAC (1.5%0, DAX (2%), DJ Transports (1.7%), FCATC (2.3%), FTSE Saudi (2%), KOSPI (1.5%), FTSE 250 (1.4%), Nikkei 225 (2.1%), Stockholm (1.4%), Eurostoxx 50 (1.4%), BIST (4.3%) and ASX Materials slumped 4.6%.

September 6, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au